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Week 9 What Have We Learned
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
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Is there a better Heisman candidate out there than Kenneth Walker III?
I know Matt Corral returned but how fit is he?
Virginia can apparently run the ball now. What a difference. A huge part of it is Brennan Armstrong being able to run again -- starting with 12 carries for 99 last week vs G Tech.
Cincy continues to be a second-half team -- I wonder what continually fading them in the 1H would bring in terms of profit.
Florida continues to be a shit-show at quarterback and in terms of missed tackles.
JT Daniels was available right, but Stetson Bennett played instead...why?
Not unknown but sometimes coaches will do things that absolutely make sense...like why was JJ McCarthy repeatedly shoehorned into the game today even after the first fumble.
I know Matt Corral returned but how fit is he?
Virginia can apparently run the ball now. What a difference. A huge part of it is Brennan Armstrong being able to run again -- starting with 12 carries for 99 last week vs G Tech.
Cincy continues to be a second-half team -- I wonder what continually fading them in the 1H would bring in terms of profit.
Florida continues to be a shit-show at quarterback and in terms of missed tackles.
JT Daniels was available right, but Stetson Bennett played instead...why?
Not unknown but sometimes coaches will do things that absolutely make sense...like why was JJ McCarthy repeatedly shoehorned into the game today even after the first fumble.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
It's amazing just how much he looks like exactly the guy that would do that
I'm the moron that kicked deep to Houston with less than a minute to go!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Duke O has now been held to 7 pts or less in 3-of-4 ACC games, shut out once. And these Ds that did this, UNC UVA and WF...D that are torched on a weekly basis. They are P-A-T-H-E-T-I-C
How about that Florida implosion in the final 3 minutes of the 1st H. Played pretty well right? UF INT's a pass at the 1, momentum into EZ, he tries running out tackled at the 1. UF would fumble, 1p 11y UGA scores. Next series, UF throws INT. 1p 36y UGA scores. Next series, UF throws a pick-six. UGA scores 3 TDs in less than 1min of game time.
How about that Florida implosion in the final 3 minutes of the 1st H. Played pretty well right? UF INT's a pass at the 1, momentum into EZ, he tries running out tackled at the 1. UF would fumble, 1p 11y UGA scores. Next series, UF throws INT. 1p 36y UGA scores. Next series, UF throws a pick-six. UGA scores 3 TDs in less than 1min of game time.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Fascinating angle to this, early starts meaning less than a best effort from the better teams keeping the dogs in the hunt? I'd say some teams are always accustomed to them because they do it so much week to week but the way tv has strung out schedules, maybe it just blanketly applies. Curious if this is just a one week thing or if there are comparable results ytd.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
SMU might have lost in OT, but an SMU win would have made yesterday my most profitable day ever in college football. It still ranks second behind 12/25/99, but I was so close to so much more.
I'm the moron that kicked deep to Houston with less than a minute to go!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Yet they still rolled up 607 yards and 52 points vs. Kansas. Keep that in mind in assessing OU’s performance last week and in capping the rest of KU’s schedule.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm at least going to give it a look to see how different teams perform in different time slots, obviously going to take some time and we always dumb it down to time zones and early/late starts...but never thought of it as a whole as to whether dogs might perform better earlier in the day and gradually get to where favorites do well as they get closer to the time of day they're probably used to practicing.
Again it's a fascinating angle I think
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
My exact sentiments. I don’t pretend to know the culture for UM, but they deserve a new coach. Jim just can’t win the big game man.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
They definitely haven't done themselves any favors over the past two weeks.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Pitt and Narduzzi doing Pitt and Narduzzi things.
I'll never tell an 18yo where to go to school. But if you're a blue chip QB (Arch Manning) I don't know how you go to UGA. Kirby just gonna keep JT on the pine all year? Not to mention you hand the ball off 40 times a game.
I'll never tell an 18yo where to go to school. But if you're a blue chip QB (Arch Manning) I don't know how you go to UGA. Kirby just gonna keep JT on the pine all year? Not to mention you hand the ball off 40 times a game.
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
Van Dyke is the best QB that Miami has had since Ken Dorsey. Sadly he might be good enough to save his idiot coaches job.
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
Betting on Michigan in big games continues to be a big waste of money and I got suckered into it again. Tucker deserves tons of credit but Harbaugh continues to give away these games.
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
I continue to be the last guy on the Scott Frost bandwagon but I might finally need to jump off.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Sadly, same here. Tucker should get some COY consideration. Along with Dave Clausen, Mike Leach, and Luke Fickell.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Not a GA fan, but why chunk it around the field with Stetson. UF has shown they can't stop the run and with infinite number of pro-ready RBs I would run all day too. No need in risking injury to the QB if not needed. Kirby hinted that JT would not play. Stating that he looked rusty in practice all week.
As far as Arch goes, where do I stand to win NCs. I know about the OM ties, but I wouldn't go there either. Let's face it, whoever has the deepest pockets will get him. My bet is Texas. Sark can put him in a pro-style setting and the Good Lord knows they have deep pockets.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think the Manning’s #1 criteria is how the program will prepare him for the NFL. He’ll get high dollar NIL no matter where he goes because he won’t just be a regional guy. Everyone knows who he is so he’ll get national endorsements. I think it’ll be Texas or Clemson, but I wouldn’t count out Alabama if they feel confident Saban stays the whole time
spooks
You Can't Make This Up
FSU +9.5 and u47.5 backers....WOW!
number2
Pretty much a regular
How many years will he stay at college level?
Is it 2 years minimum?
Forgot where I read something about football players can’t leave after 1 year?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Can't enter the draft til their 3 yrs out of HS
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
I think money is the last thing they are worried about. He will get the biggest NIL deal ever if he plays in Alaska
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Bama is in it but I think Texas is definitely leader i think
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Wonder why he hasn't signed a deal already
Mikey Williams signed on with Puma and their already advertising the hell out of him, he's still a junior in HS
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
If the Mannings are fine losing 3 plus games a year they should send him to play for Sark. If they care about winning he goes to Bama or some other proven winner.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I had both. Add that to having the over in GB/Zona game Thursday night, and I’m a little shook
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
ESPN computer poll is out and Sparty is still 2 spots behind UM
I'd laugh at that except that Arizona at #23 and 0-8 steals the LMFAO this week
www.espn.com
I'd laugh at that except that Arizona at #23 and 0-8 steals the LMFAO this week
2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
The Virginia defense vs. BYU might have been the worst I've seen watching a CF game EVER. They lined up in a 3 3 format on defense most of the time and the other 5 players were either covering WR or playing like a safety. 6 men in the box if you will. And BYU was just running at will - like 10 yards every carry. And Bronco wouldn't get out of it. It was truly unbelievable to watch.
Think it was the Tulsa Navy game Thursday. It's like late 3Q, early 4Q, I think it's tied or very close. Can't remember all the details. Anyway, Tulsa gets to Navy 30 and has 4th and half yard and they line up to go for it. They get it easy on a run but TE moved early and they get 5Y procedure penalty. Now 4th and 5 from the Navy 35. Tulsa HC decides to punt. Of course it goes into the end zone and comes out to 20. Nets 15 yards vs chance to score TD or FG late in a very low scoring game. I'm no Analytics guru but I think even Bo Schembeckler would have gone for that 40 years ago. Easy to see why Tulsa is offensively challenged. Plus it seemed like they ran the ball on 1st down every series.
Had FSU +10 and pushed on the fumble disaster. Was surprised to see so many people lost on +9.5. I always buy 1/2 on key numbers (to a point on juice). For example, I won't take a 6.5 dog - I'll buy to 7. I won't bet a 7.5 favorite, etc. If the juice is too heavy I won't bet it. But it must not be +EV since doesn't seem many do it. Anyone know if there is any math stats on this? Just curious. Don't think I'll change either way.
My late father went to Nebraska and we were big fans while I was growing up in the glory days. My dad stopped being a fan when Osborne looked the other way in the NC game on Phillips after he dragged his GF by her hair through the dorm. He never went to another booster meeting after that. Anyway, is there any team the oddsmakers have been off on more than Nebraska? (outside of Clemson) I'm shocked Frost hasn't been successful - I don't follow recruiting too much but he must not be able to get the Florida kids up there to Lincoln. I thought he would have them in playoff in 3 years.
As a Vegas resident it's sad to see state of UNLV football. Growing up in San Diego I often said the same of SDSU - and they turned it around somewhat last 10+ years in football and bb. To me if you can recruit to Boise, Logan, Fresno, etc. - hell RENO - you should be able to get some kids to Vegas. The city is now more respectful - UNLV has a law school now and the city is more legit with NHL, NFL and several minor league teams, UNLV plays in 2nd most modern stadium Allegiant, the former AD now at Missouri got the football facilities significantly upgraded, etc. Biggest issue is they can't pay their coaches - Lon Kruger got them to Sweet 16 in BB like 3 years in a row or something like and finally left for Oklahoma because they paid him $1M more than here. To me, you need to find that young Urban Meyer at BG. But no way it should be like this.
Think it was the Tulsa Navy game Thursday. It's like late 3Q, early 4Q, I think it's tied or very close. Can't remember all the details. Anyway, Tulsa gets to Navy 30 and has 4th and half yard and they line up to go for it. They get it easy on a run but TE moved early and they get 5Y procedure penalty. Now 4th and 5 from the Navy 35. Tulsa HC decides to punt. Of course it goes into the end zone and comes out to 20. Nets 15 yards vs chance to score TD or FG late in a very low scoring game. I'm no Analytics guru but I think even Bo Schembeckler would have gone for that 40 years ago. Easy to see why Tulsa is offensively challenged. Plus it seemed like they ran the ball on 1st down every series.
Had FSU +10 and pushed on the fumble disaster. Was surprised to see so many people lost on +9.5. I always buy 1/2 on key numbers (to a point on juice). For example, I won't take a 6.5 dog - I'll buy to 7. I won't bet a 7.5 favorite, etc. If the juice is too heavy I won't bet it. But it must not be +EV since doesn't seem many do it. Anyone know if there is any math stats on this? Just curious. Don't think I'll change either way.
My late father went to Nebraska and we were big fans while I was growing up in the glory days. My dad stopped being a fan when Osborne looked the other way in the NC game on Phillips after he dragged his GF by her hair through the dorm. He never went to another booster meeting after that. Anyway, is there any team the oddsmakers have been off on more than Nebraska? (outside of Clemson) I'm shocked Frost hasn't been successful - I don't follow recruiting too much but he must not be able to get the Florida kids up there to Lincoln. I thought he would have them in playoff in 3 years.
As a Vegas resident it's sad to see state of UNLV football. Growing up in San Diego I often said the same of SDSU - and they turned it around somewhat last 10+ years in football and bb. To me if you can recruit to Boise, Logan, Fresno, etc. - hell RENO - you should be able to get some kids to Vegas. The city is now more respectful - UNLV has a law school now and the city is more legit with NHL, NFL and several minor league teams, UNLV plays in 2nd most modern stadium Allegiant, the former AD now at Missouri got the football facilities significantly upgraded, etc. Biggest issue is they can't pay their coaches - Lon Kruger got them to Sweet 16 in BB like 3 years in a row or something like and finally left for Oklahoma because they paid him $1M more than here. To me, you need to find that young Urban Meyer at BG. But no way it should be like this.
Great post
Thanks. meant to ask if OSU beats MSU [likely] and Michigan beats OSU [unlikely] what is tie break for East? Wouldn't that be a mess. But Michigan's season isn't over due to this. This should be Harbaugh's motivation
Its a complicated tiebreaker. I believe it comes down to record vs other division or something like that.
Nothing to worry about, both secondaries will get torched vs OSU.
The OSU MSU total can't be high enough imo... OSU should get near 50 themselves....
And, definitely not over. They gotta get up for a dreary night game this week... Then be prepared for a tough one in Creepy Valley. That's the concentration for now...
I'd be supremely happy being 10-1 before the eventual slaughtering from OSU...for an expected 7-5 team...
I'll do big ten thread tomorrow..
On MSU and UM I saw first 7-9 mins and listened to rest of half on radio. I saw nothing 2h... I have finally seen the replay from end of 1h...
Couple notes...
Few things happened that you could predict...
-Mich passed all over a very bad pass defense...
-Mich kicked FGs
-MSU scores on big plays and Mich defensive breakdown
We had all that data beforehand.
Cade was really good... We knew he could do some things vs a bad secondary and he was ALLOWED to.
Cade outgained the entire MSU team by himself. Wild.
The overturn at the end of the 1H was brutal. That's plane robbery and the exact difference in the final score.
The non PI late was definitely iffy. I wouldn't say blatant, but iffy.
Why did Mich lose a game that they won via the box score pretty easily?
The FGs...
Our new DC was in over his head with the dumb substitution patterns. That was the source of a few scores.
JJ fumbles.
Up 16 in the late 3rd with a team built to run... You end that game...
The better team didn't win, but the team that executed and was ballsy all game won and deservedly so for the most part. Sparty wouldn't quit. Big credit.
On MSU and UM I saw first 7-9 mins and listened to rest of half on radio. I saw nothing 2h... I have finally seen the replay from end of 1h...
Couple notes...
Few things happened that you could predict...
-Mich passed all over a very bad pass defense...
-Mich kicked FGs
-MSU scores on big plays and Mich defensive breakdown
We had all that data beforehand.
Cade was really good... We knew he could do some things vs a bad secondary and he was ALLOWED to.
Cade outgained the entire MSU team by himself. Wild.
The overturn at the end of the 1H was brutal. That's plane robbery and the exact difference in the final score.
The non PI late was definitely iffy. I wouldn't say blatant, but iffy.
Why did Mich lose a game that they won via the box score pretty easily?
The FGs...
Our new DC was in over his head with the dumb substitution patterns. That was the source of a few scores.
JJ fumbles.
Up 16 in the late 3rd with a team built to run... You end that game...
The better team didn't win, but the team that executed and was ballsy all game won and deservedly so for the most part. Sparty wouldn't quit. Big credit.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Man that is brutal GPS....
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
If two teams have the same number of division losses but a different number of division wins, move to next step in tiebreaker. ii. If two teams have a different number of division losses, the teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.Oct 22, 2020
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Gambler Killer of the year was the end of the Clemson/Florida St game. I feel for anyone who had Florida State. And the moron of the year is the Florida State player who caught the lateral, had open green for 15 yards in front of him and the only Clemson player in the picture getting blocked by another FSU guy, and he runs 20 yards backwards to find a guy to lateral to. A crushing loss for bettors
Alluded to above, but the dumbest coaching decision of the week--maybe the season--was SMU kicking off to the end zone with only 17 seconds left and giving the Houston returner, a dynamite punt and KO returner who had killed SMU all night long, a chance to return it. Hard to understand how any coach, even a grad assistant at a junior high, could be that stupid
Oklahoma has beaten exactly zero teams with a winning record against Power 5 teams this year. Their offense is functioning better now that Rattler is on the bench, but the defense is the worst of any ranked team the coaching staff never seems to be able to get them to play up to their talent level.
I still don't know how good Michigan State is. I've bet them every week starting with Miami and haven't lost yet. I love Walker and the running game and it's even more impressive how they seem to knock all the fight out of the other team by the last quarter and Walker starts breaking long ones, but they got way behind Miami and against Saturday with Michigan. They're good, but I have no idea if they are as good as Ohio State
Alluded to above, but the dumbest coaching decision of the week--maybe the season--was SMU kicking off to the end zone with only 17 seconds left and giving the Houston returner, a dynamite punt and KO returner who had killed SMU all night long, a chance to return it. Hard to understand how any coach, even a grad assistant at a junior high, could be that stupid
Oklahoma has beaten exactly zero teams with a winning record against Power 5 teams this year. Their offense is functioning better now that Rattler is on the bench, but the defense is the worst of any ranked team the coaching staff never seems to be able to get them to play up to their talent level.
I still don't know how good Michigan State is. I've bet them every week starting with Miami and haven't lost yet. I love Walker and the running game and it's even more impressive how they seem to knock all the fight out of the other team by the last quarter and Walker starts breaking long ones, but they got way behind Miami and against Saturday with Michigan. They're good, but I have no idea if they are as good as Ohio State
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TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I agree. Post it when you finish your research because I think there's something there
Haven't done any research to back it up, but for the last few years I avoid giving points in the early games, take the eastern team when a west coast team flys east and plays an 11 am game (don't see it as much in college, but happens in the NFL a lot and have won some money on the NFL games), and play SEC home teams in night games.
I'm in the black doing it but haven't broken it out from all picks to know the precise percentages
Both of the SEC night home teams won again this week and I was never even in doubt on either bet
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t learn anything from this other than maybe how cruel life is but omg I just saw the last play of fsu/clemson. I had a idea what happened but that was even worse than I pictured it!! The play was set up so perfect, why in gods name did the 1st kid who got the pitch turn backwards? He had 2 blockers in front and a alley, he might have actually freaking scored and won (which woulda been a far more just result in that game!), seriously what the flying fuck was he doing? Don’t they coach that play to be exactly the way it was setting up so he gets the pitch and runs? There no world where going backwards there ever results in a win, and he really might have scored had he just went with the play design! You almost never see that it was gonna work!! I dunno if he fast enough he does score but the play was set up perfectly to actually work! No way it should have resulted in clemson covering!!
