Week 9: Strictly Fading Public Dogs

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
Currently...

Rutgers -7
A&M -18.5
USC -7
TCU -2


will update qualified plays throughout the week :thumbsup2:
 
Updated List of qualified plays

BYU -7
Rutgers -7... homecoming game btw
A&M -17
UNC -7
Tulsa -2.5
Mich State -10
Oklahoma -8
USC -6.5
TCU -2
CSU -4


definitely will be on rutgers, UNC and A&M... not really sure about the rest yet
 
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I've found this to be a good practice in the past. Especially home dogs. Sometimes the public is rtight on the road dogs, but rarely the home ones. See Clemson last week. Good stuff.
 
This works in college football at a very nice clip. It's basically finding shady lines. Like why the hell does Rutgers open at -9?
 
Remember
Doctor LOU
BC+7

BC is a veteran squad and they come in off a bye while UNC is in a tough sandwich spot. They have a couple extra days rest off a Thurs night HG vs Miami, but have archrival NC ST on deck NW. Steve Addazio is doing a great job @ BC despite what their record says. They are a very physical team which only makes this sandwich spot game even tougher. They have covered 3 straight games, two of which came against FSU and CLEM. They have a big OL and play to the whistle despite the score. LW, MIAMI lost their top WR and RB and Morris had 4 INT, yet the TARHEELS still couldn't win. So how do you get a team back up when they’ve played arguably their best game of the season and still couldn’t win? MIAMI second-string running back carried the ball 33 times for 137 yards and 2 TDs. BC RB 6'0'' 220 LB SR Andre Williams is a horse. He's been fed the ball 35, 28, and 30 times against their covers in WAKE, FSU, and ARMY. He is punishing teams on the year and has 838 yards and 5.7 ypc and 7 TDs. Retting is a great QB who knows how to find holes in the defense and make teams pay. He has been the QB of this offense since his freshman year in 2010. He really knows the offense in and out. He is not the type to turn the ball over. Renner is a great passer, but his protection is prone to break down and he can only do so much. Plus he is a little dinged up. It's clear he is missing Bernard and the three OL that joined him in the NFL. Both teams need this win for bowl eligibility, more so BC than UNC as the TARHEELS are 1-5 and have a steep uphill climb to reach six wins. BC has UNC, VY, NEW MEX ST, NC ST, MD, and CUSE left on their schedule. If they can get this win they only need two more win to claim bowl eligibility. NEW MEX ST and CUSE are their two best shots at getting to a bowl, but that hinges on this game. UNC a woeful 1-7 SUATS mark at Kenan Stadium in game 7 versus an ACC foe.

Might be a sucker myself but posts like this rooted in facts and logic can get a bet out of me especially when the poster is hitting high 60%s
 
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early games manana

[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NCAAF - 10/26/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


113 Connecticut
114 Central Florida
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 20%
80%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 29%
71%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 35%
65%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50
-22.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-24-102
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-23.5-114
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-24-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-24
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 52.5o-105/+100
-23-113/-113
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-23.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-24
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-24
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


115 Ball State
116 Akron
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 86%
14%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -11.5-109
55.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10-102
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9-112
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9.5
54.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -9-110/+103
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9-115
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9.5
53.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9.5
54
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


123 Houston
124 Rutgers
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 70%
30%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 64%
36%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 62
-9.5-109
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 61o-110
-6.5-118
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 60
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 61
-6.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 61.5
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 61u-101/+100
-7-103/-103
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 60
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 61
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 61
-7-105
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


159 Wake Forest
160 Miami Florida
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 40%
60%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 51%
49%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 90%
10%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 55
-21.5+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54o-108
-24+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 55
-24+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54
-24-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54
-23.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 54o-107/-103
-24+105/+105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 55
-24
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54.5
-23.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54.5
-24
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


167 Northwestern
168 Iowa
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 73%
27%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 48%
52%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 54
-4
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-3.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-3.5-111
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-4
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-3.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 52.5
-3.5-105/-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-3.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-3.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-3.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


191 Oklahoma State
192 Iowa State
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 57%
43%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 74%
26%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -14
55.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5-108
56o-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5
55.5o-113
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -13
56
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5
56.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -12.5-106/+100
56o-109/-101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5
55.5o-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5
57
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -12.5
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


195 Nebraska
196 Minnesota
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 81%
19%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 86%
14%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 84%
16%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10-116
51.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10.5+101
52
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -10.5+103/-111
52u-105/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
52
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:00 PM


197 Louisville
198 South Florida
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 77%
23%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 55%
45%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20.5-115
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20-117
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20.5
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20.5
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -20-114/+110
46.5o-105/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20.5
46.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -20.5
46.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:21 PM


141 Vanderbilt
142 Texas A&M
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 55%
45%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 80%
20%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 70
-18.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69.5
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 69.5u-105/+100
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69
-17
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69
-17-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 69.5
-17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/26

12:30 PM


111 Georgia Tech
112 Virginia
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -9-114
48
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10-112
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10-115
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10.5
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -10-110/+102
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10.5
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -10.5
48.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Wait the Rutgers game will go below 7 everywhere. May even drop below 6.

Houston gave up over 700 yards total offense last week. They got a pick 6, safety, kick off return and 4 turnovers to stay in that game. They only lost by 1 but should have lost by 21+. The game before that they were dominated by Memphis who turned it over 3 times where they were about to put up points. I hate to say it but they were lucky to cover the last two weeks. They will get destroyed today. For Rutgers now third time they have faced this kind of offense, the young secondary is playing much better than the beginning of the year. If they get up they will run, eat up clock shorten the game and there won't be much Houston can do to stop them. Rutgers by 17+.
 
When a team playing at home as a dog wins SU two weeks in a row they %'s of them covering are very small the next game. This would fit into why the Tulsa line is what it is. The spot for Tulane is almost impossible for them to win this game.
 
It fell to 6.5 but id rather have even on 7. My book has -7 -105 now... It really should not matter.
 
I like Rutgers apart fom the fact that thy are playing Houston, ho seems to cover the number every week no matter what the spread.
 
Smaller play on A&M -17 and Rutgers TT over 33.5 -115. Will be back before the mid afternoon games
 
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