Week 9 plays, leans, and Cincinnati/UConn

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Week 6: 7-3, +3.4u
Week 7: 8-2, +5.93u
Week 8: 5-4, +4.03u
Straight plays: 41-32-1, +8.57u
Sides: 19-20, -8.34u
Game Totals: 22-9-1, +20.36u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 41-34-1, +7.97u

Unofficial Week 8 numbers - will double check in the morning and post if I had to change them.

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 5-1
Last Week: Bye
Next: at Connecticut

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-5
Last Week: L 48-26 at Northwestern
Next: vs. Minnesota

Looking good here. Need 2-5 from Cincy the rest of the way to get it done. Purdue would have to win out just to push.

Week 9 plays:

<!-- / message -->SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2)
Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5)<!-- / message --><!-- sig --><!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Indiana +9.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Kent St. +8 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Bowling Green +7 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Michigan +5.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Temple -4 (1.1u to win 1)
Boise St./San Jose St. OVER 40.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Eastern Michigan +27.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Week 8 leans (bolded leans are the stronger leans)

Temple -4 - Would probably need 3 with their offense.
Air Force -6
San Jose St. +7 - Was hoping for a bit more here.
NC State +10.5 - This is where Maryland typically struggles.
Eastern Michigan +24 - Whatever....I don't get any of the MAC lines this week.
SMU +13 - Improving....
Georgia +3
Oklahoma -19 - I hate laying road chalk like this, but I wouldn't blink an eye if they won by 45 here.
South Florida -4.5 - Still the best team in the BE IMO.
Washington +11.5


Tight lines this time around. BOL to all this week. Start on the reasoning and other stuff tomorrow. :cheers:
 
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If you get time ... could you do a kent st writeup or share some reasoning there. I also like this line immediately upon seeing it and think there is nice value in kent off the bye against a mediocre offense. kind of a deceiving final score last year. anyway , might need a push to actually bet kent
 
Like AFA a bit myself, but NM has been very solid versus the run this year.

Thanks again for the Northwest/Purdue total last week. Easy, easy money.
 
If you get time ... could you do a kent st writeup or share some reasoning there. I also like this line immediately upon seeing it and think there is nice value in kent off the bye against a mediocre offense. kind of a deceiving final score last year. anyway , might need a push to actually bet kent

I'll get to it tomorrow. I don't get any of the MAC lines this week with the exception of CMU -4 at Toledo.

You are telling me NIU would be a road favorite at Bowling Green and Miami OH would be favored at Kent? Please. Hell, I couldn't even definitively say if Miami OH is the better team period. Edelman is the 4th best QB in the conference behind LeFevour, Hiller, and Davis.
 
Like AFA a bit myself, but NM has been very solid versus the run this year.

Thanks again for the Northwest/Purdue total last week. Easy, easy money.

Still going over AF in my head - you think this spread is 8 if NM wins by 2 TDs against SDSU?

Good get on the early line in NW/Purdue - thats why we have the totals discussion. Going to get it started early tomorrow so hopefully we can get more discussion in. Glad to see that it paid off for you. :cheers:
 
From http://runwayramblings.blogspot.com/:

Zach Frazer's condition is still unclear, though it seems he may be dealing with another concussion. That is not good news. Randy Edsall would only say that Frazer is still "a little fuzzy" and will be monitored over the next two days. Edsall did say that Frazer is better today than he was yesterday. It's definitely something that bears watching. His concussion in August took about a month for him to fully recover. If it's indeed another concussion, and it sounds as if it is, it could take more time.


Also:

This question was emailed to me, and since I didn't address it in the blog today, I will answer it here.

Question: Chip, what happens if Frazer can't play Saturday? Does Edsall go to Cody Endres, and is there a chance we could see D.J. (Hernandez) back at QB? -- John G.

A: If Frazer can't play, Endres get the start. No question. He's in his second year in the program (same as Frazer) and has already logged game time this season. Backing him up would be Johnny McEntee, a walk-on from California, and Casey Turner. If Endres got hurt, Edsall would use whichever of the two he felt was the best (and right now, I'm not sure who that would be). Both are first-year guys, and Turner is here on a full ride. Burning Turner's redshirt isn't something UConn wants to do, but if he's the guy who gives them the best shot to win, they won't think twice about it. Chances of D.J. playing anywhere but receiver are slim to none. Unless, that is, Endres, McEntee and Turner all get injured.
 
Good luck this week D, thanks to your work on totals, I have had some great success with totals in the last few weeks comparing what I like to what your on.

Great job buddy.
 
Appreciate it Marlo - Please chime in to those discussion threads. The more discussion, the better. Every once in a while we get a gift like Purdue/NW last week, even this late in the season.

This was in last week's thread, but it is more relevant now, so here it is again:

Pike good to go against UConn
Posted by BKoch at 10/16/2008 6:13 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Brian Kelly made it official after practice today. Tony Pike will start at quarterback on Oct. 25 at UConn.

“I knew that physically he could do everything that we needed him to do,” Kelly said, “but was he going to be hesitant mentally? I haven’t seen that at all, so my feeling today is he’ll start, he’ll do the things we ask him to do within our offense and we won’t change anything. It’s a green light.”

Pike, who again practiced with a protective pad around the cast on his left forearm, said he had no problem accepting center snaps with the arm.
 
If you get time ... could you do a kent st writeup or share some reasoning there. I also like this line immediately upon seeing it and think there is nice value in kent off the bye against a mediocre offense. kind of a deceiving final score last year. anyway , might need a push to actually bet kent

Sorry this has gotten to +7 before I was able to write this, but I still like it there.

First of all, the line just doesn't make sense in the context of other lines. Two weeks ago, Mimai OH is 10.5 point underdogs to NIU, and they cover because of a punt return. Last week, they eek out a win over BG because their running game comes alive for the first time all season. Now they are a TD favorite to Kent? Hell, that BG win was their first I-A victory of the season.

Are the better than Kent? I asked myself this question and couldn't come up with a true answer. I really don't know. Outside of CMU, WMU, and Ball St., I really don't think anyone is a TD better than anyone else in the conference.

I really don't have a whole bunch of match-up stuff with this game, I just don't see much difference between the teams. For as good as we thought Miami OH's front seven (especially linebackers) would be, they are giving up 4.4 ypc this season compared to Kent St.'s 4.5.

The pass defense has been good for Miami OH at 172 ypg (compared to KSU's 218), butt hey haven't played passing teams: Vandy, Michigan, Charleston Southern, Temple, NIU. Only Cincinnati and Bowling Green throw effectively and they went 20-24 for 241 yards and 21-34 for 224 respectively.

Miami OH has only scored 20 against two I-A teams all season. Last week against BG (27) and against Cincinnati (20 - one of their TD drives involved 40 penalty yards charged to Cincy).

Miami OH made some seemingly positive changes last week when they started JR Taylor at RB (18 carries for 127 yards) and Clay Belton at QB. Will this improve the offense in the long term? Probably, but there will be growing pains considering that they are both freshman.

Belton certainly has a higher ceiling than Raudabaugh, but Kent wll only be his 2nd start (though he also saw significant time vs. Temple). I think the real effects of Belton will be felt next season. He was 11-23 for 129 yards against BG, with 53 yards coming on one play. He also seems to hold the ball entirely too long, as he has already taken 7 sacks compared to only 54 pass attempts.

The only real problem I see for Kent St. is the kicking game as the Nate Reed/Will Kandray duo have been a disaster to this point in the kicking game.

Kent St. outgained both Akron and Ohio in their last two games, and had opportunities to win both. You have to figure that the bye week really helps a hobbled Jarvis get back to 100% (finally returned against Ohio for 14 carries and 50 yards).

I also think that Kent St. has in offensive identity, whereas MOH really doesn't with the infusion of these two freshman. Interested to see if they Belton a chance to throw or if they continue to run Taylor/Bratton/Merriweather.

I see pretty big advantages at QB, RB, and at the OL for Kent St.

Miami OH's defense as a whole is better than KSU's but not nearly by the margin most would have thought in the preseason (and I think the stats bear that out). The stats indicate that it is nearly a wash.

I would give Miami the significant edge at kicker, but that's basically it.

I set out to find the better team, and I really couldn't find one. I think this be in the line of +3 or 4 as opposed to +7 or 8.
 
From what i hear its about 50-50 for frazer.. endres has a big arm but very untested..cinci looking good to me
 
Thanks BAR - give me the experienced combo of Edelman/Jarvis +7 against the freshman.

husky - Should be interesting. I read that Edsall isn't letting the QBs talk to the media, so he's probably going to keep it quiet for as long as possible.

Added:

SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2)

Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1) <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Thanks BAR - give me the experienced combo of Edelman/Jarvis +7 against the freshman.

husky - Should be interesting. I read that Edsall isn't letting the QBs talk to the media, so he's probably going to keep it quiet for as long as possible.

Added:

SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2)
Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1) <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->





well thats been true since lorenzen went down.. but i know he was talking to my friend and said he feels good.. but naturally, anybody is going to want to play so its essentially up to edsall and the staff.. ill try to find out as much updates as i can, donny brown was pretty upbeat this weekend after the loss, and he really is a great kid.. tough loss to take though..
 
Adding:

Temple -4 (1.1u to win 1)

Bad line, but I can't shake the feeling that they win by 10-14. I cutting this pretty thin value-wise, hope it doesn't cost me.
 
We'll got very lucky on that Temple game not to lose (DiMichele was not ready), and then to top it off my bad line costs me a win.

Just going to pretend I didn't bet on the game at all.
 
Box scores:

- Florida St. was 10-17 on 3rd down, NC State was a combined 1-11 on 3rd and 4th down. NC State ran 22 times for 158 yards (7.1 avg.). After a 4-4 night, Graham Gano is now 10-11 on FGs this year, including 5-6 from 40+.

- TCU won the turnover battle 4-1 and outgained BYU 410-297. Despite only scoring 7 points, BYU was a combined 12-22 on 3rd and 4th down. TCU was combined 12-17. TCU ran 51 times (for 240 yards) to only 19 pass attempts. After holding BYU to 23 yards on 28 carries, TCU is allowing 0.9 ypc this year.

- Boise St. outgained Hawaii 367-288 and benefitted from 5 INTs from Funaki. Boise St. boomed three punts a 60 ypp clip, but was 2-4 on FGs. Funaki now has 5 TDs and 11 INT on the season. Boise St. has allowed more than 7 points in only one game so far this season (Oregon - 32).

- USF outgained Syracuse 487-230. Syracuse punter Rob Long averaged 50.4 yards on seven punts, and is averaging 47.1 ypp on the year.

- There were 917 total yards and 8 turnovers in the Purdue/NW game (5 committed by Purdue). Purdue QB Joey Elliot replaced Curtis Painter in the 2nd quarter and fumbled his 1st snap deep in Purdue territory. He stayed in and went 5-10 for 35 yards before leaving with a concussion late in the same quarter. Northwestern kicker Amado Villarreal is now 13-16 on FGs this year, but he has only attempted one FG from outside 40 yards (which he made).

- Maryland outgained Wake 470-219. Darius Heyward-Bey caught 11 balls for 101 yards and a TD - he had never caught more than six passes in a game in his career. Maryland kicker Obi Egekeze appears to have found his form. He was 4-4 on FGs against Wake, and has now made nine straight after starting the season 0-5. He remains only 1-4 from 40+. Wake Forest kicker Shane Popham went 0-2 on FGs, leaving him 2-6 since taking the place of injured Sam Swank against Clemson.

- East Carolina outgained Memphis 381-184 and scored 23 unanswered points to end the game. Memphis' TD was the result of an ECU botched punt at their own 7 yard line. East Carolina QB Rob Kass replaced Patrick Pinkney in the 1st quarter and went 9-17 for 167 yards and 2 TDs. Memphis lost their top two QBs to injury in the 1st quarter. Arkelton Hall (broken right thumb) and Will Hudgens (carried off with a knee injury) had to make way for Junior Brett Toney. He hadn't attempted a pass in his career and had played on special teams, but he went 11-15 for 65 yards.

- UConn outgained Rutgers 353-294, but kicker Tony Ciaravino was 1-4 on FGs, leaving him 9-15 on the year (made 19, missed 43, 25, and 42). The final miss (from 42) glanced off the post with just 1:09 remaining. Ciaravino is now just 1-5 from 40+ this season. UConn coach Randy Edsall has since announced that Dave Teggart will take over FG kicking duties. Rutgers had only one penalty for 9 yards.

- Clay Belton got his first start for Miami OH and went 11-23 for 129 yards and a TD. Freshman RB JR Taylor also got his first start and ran 18 times for 127 yards and a TD (the game-winner with 2:35 left). Miami OH ran 43 times for 218 yards (5.1 avg.). Before the game, Miami OH was 106th in the nation with just over 100 yards rushing per game. Bowling Green had 101 penalty yards on nine flags.

- Clemson turned it over 6 times in their 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech kicker Scott Blair is now 0-4 from 40+ on the year (6-11 overall) after missing a 50-yarder. Clemson QB Cullen Harper got his job back for the time being when Willy Korn left with a shoulder injury. Harper went 15-25 for 170 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs.

- Texas Tech outgained Texas A&M 561-306 (A&M had 20 yards rushing). The final score is a bit deceiving, as Harrell plunged in for a meaningless 1-yard score with :20 remaining. Harrell had 450 yards passing, and routinely had 5-10 seconds in the pocket. A&M RB Mike Goodson has not had more than 12 carries in any game since rushing 24 times for 124 yards in their opening week loss to Arky St. However, he does have 31 receptions on the year after 36 all of last year.

- Wisconsin outgained Iowa 409-375, but they lost the TO battle 3-0. Iowa was only 1-10 on 3rd down. Iowa RB Shonn Greene ran for 217 yards on 25 tries, including TDs of 52, 34, 34, and 12 yards. After a 3-3 day, Wisconsin kicker Philip Welch is 12-14 on the year, including 6-7 from 40+.

- There were 1044 yards of total offense between Western Michigan and Central Michigan (yardage was even). WMU had the advantage in penalties and won the TO battle 1-0, but CMU was 10-15 on 3rd down while the Broncos were a combined 7-18 on 3rd and 4th down. WMU QB Tim Hiller passed for 471 yards and 2 TDs (3 different WRs had 100+ yards). Hiller is completing 68.8% of his passes and has a 25-5 ratio this year (he has thrown 4+ TDs on four occasions). CMU QB Brian Brunner filled nicely for Dan LeFevour, going 20-28 for 346 yards, a TD, and an INT.

- Nebraska outgained Iowa St. 548-218 and had good balance: The Huskers ran for 220 yards on 41 tries and passed for 328 yards on 37 attempts.

- Georgia outgained Vandy 425-245, but they were only 1-8 on 3rd down and 1-3 on FGs.

More to come.....
 
From theuconnblog.com and Justin Verrier:

UConn coach Randy Edsall said in his weekly press conference that Zach Frazer suffered a “head injury” and will be evaluated today at 2:30 with team doctors to check his progress.
Edsall wouldn’t go any further in regards to the injury than saying “we classify it as a head injury,” but wide receiver Kashif Moore said that Frazer in fact suffered a concussion.
“I was watching film after the game and saw the play that it happened,” Moore said. “I think we were in the red zone and he tried to throw the ball and I think one of the linebackers blitzed and kind of put his helmet into his face, and I just saw his head turn back. My coach told me that was the play that he had gotten a concussion.”
Moore said he doesn’t think the play, which happened sometime in the fourth quarter, was a dirty hit, and that it didn’t look intentional on tape.
Although Edsall did not say who will start Saturday, all signs point to Cody Endres getting the start. Frazer suffered a concussion during training camp and was out for a few week.s
  • In other news, after his three-miss performance Saturday, Tony Ciaravino has been replaced by Dave Teggart as the primary field goal kicker, and will be first in line for field goals and extra points against Cincinnati Saturday (noon, MyTV9).
 
really nice card. love all those totals, especially the smu over. first game i circled when going over this week. they seem to really have a handle on that offense now and are a hard stop for anyone. thanks for all the info and good luck d...
 
Thanks scraps - made it 72.5. Hope the weather isn't too bad down there tomorrow. GL this weekend.

Thanks nawlins - BOL this week.

Added:

Boise St./San Jose St. OVER 40.5 (1.1u to win 1)
 
Weather update...

34363061393238313438643664323130
This is the forecast for Annapolis MD for Fri, Sat, and Sun respectively. It's enough to make me buy off of the over, too many variables. But is also encourages me to take the under in the Md/NC State game, seeing as how it's only about 30min from Annap.
Good health.:tiphat:

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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=blkVerdanaText10 vAlign=center align=middle width=139 height=14>Local Event Forecast</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Showers
</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Low
<NOBR>57° F</NOBR>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 vAlign=top align=right width="50%">Precip:</TD><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 vAlign=top align=middle></TD><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 vAlign=top align=left width="50%">40%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=inDentA vAlign=top align=left width="100%" height=135>Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. Low 57F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

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Rain / Thunder / Wind
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<NOBR>62° F</NOBR>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=inDentA vAlign=top align=left width="100%" height=135>Windy with rain showers early, becoming steady later in the day. A few rumbles of thunder possible. A few storms may be severe. High 62F. Winds SSE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall around a half an inch.

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Clouds Early / Clearing Late
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<NOBR>50° F</NOBR>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=inDentA vAlign=top align=left width="100%" height=135>Cloudy early with partial clearing expected late. Low near 50F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.

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Appreciate the forecast dj - it looks pretty ugly. Looks like I'll have to hedge at least part of what I bet there. BOL today.

Thanks Aztec - weird game last night. Very lucky breaks early followed by some bad breaks late that made it interesting. BOL today.


Apologize that I couldn't get to a Cincy/UConn preview, but its tough to do one without the QB status known. I do believe that the value is gone from the line either way at this point. I'll have to operate under the assumption that either Endres or someone else will start today given the line movement (made this a PK or -1 for UConn with Frazer in). It is also difficult given the little info on Endres. If Endres or someone else plays, they should be able to contain Brown and pull this out by a TD or so.
 
We should have nailed that BYU over at 56. Up to 63 now. Unreal. Best of luck today man.

Seriously - that line move was out of nowhere (I looked at 1 AM last night and it was 60.5 - I was sitting thinking I saw it in the 56-57 area a couple hours ago). I thought it was a bit low at 56, but wow.

BOL today. :cheers:
 
Almost time for us to be screaming, "Make your f-ing free throws!" :mad:

Good luck today. :shake:

Ha, we'll also be asking teams to foul down 17 with :10 to go. We'll have 100 bad beats (and lucky wins) a year in that sport, but it's great anyway. Can't wait.
 
Still mulling over what to do with the Navy/SMU O/U, as you'll probably see the total drop a few points as we get closer to gametime.
 
SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2)

Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1) <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

Bro, you have the best number on every one of your O/U's...most by 3, with a high of 5 (NW/IU now 53)......:tiphat:
Sounds like a HELLUVA formula for a profitable day.

Mully :cheers:
 
Thanks MM - been really focusing on totals this year and it has paid off so far.

Added:

Eastern Michigan +27.5 (1.1u to win 1) - this number just popped up on Bookmaker, so I took it.
 
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