Week 9 NFL Plays...

JumpOnBoard

CTG Partner
Posted NFL Record
Sides: 16-16-1 +6.57 units
Totals: 5-2 +4.71 units
Teasers: 2-11 -10.20 units
2nd Half Sides: 2-4-2.14 units

In-Game Sides: 1-2 -1.11 units
Props: 4-0 +8.68 units




Teasers haven't been at all profitable for me in the NFL this year whereas they've been gold in college...so I'm just playing em in college unless I find one I absolutely love....another shitty card in the NFL today....this has been consistently the toughest cards I've seen...just junk lines and parity is really a bitch...

One freaking play for me today because I hate this card so much...I may, emphasize may, play Indy in the Sunday night game..

Side:

Denver +3 (-108)....2 unts...2.16/2.00....this is a play that looks to be a public fave and the line hasn't budged towards DEN so I know it's not a sharp play...but Pitt is a team that's lost three straight weeks in supposed "must win spots"....now for as bas as they've been, they've had some impressive outings vs Miami and KC at home and sans the Cincy game, have been dominant there....Ben is not the same QB at all this year and is killing their offense...they can't really run it and he keeps making big mistakes which their offense can't overcome....DEN is solid up front on D and Ben is going to take some shots once again today, esp w/ the loss of Jeff Hartings...Hartings might be the most underrated offensive lineman in the league and a great center...Tatum Bell is knicked up here but M Bell looked very impressive vs Indy...I think this is going to be a fairly low scoring game and turnovers will be imperative....funny thing to say, but I think Jake does a better job at that today than Ben....Denver has a tricky D and I think they'll give him assload of trouble...Pitt is a tough place to play but Den has the experience of doing that this year w/ that win at NE a month or so back..


STL -2.5...1 unit...1.05/1.00..they're undefeated at home and 11-4 ATS vs AFC opponents at home in last fifteen...gotta bite small.


Indy +3 (-102).....1 unit...1.02/1.00


Looks to easy, lets hope it is...

GL today boys..

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
I did mean to say, and it's not something that means nearly as much as it does in college, but this is a big revenge spot for Denver..

They lost 34-17 to Pitt at home in the AFC Championship game last year...so for what was as stake, it makes it a revenge spot, NFL or not.
 
OK, I lied....

one add:

STL -2.5...1 unit...1.05/1.00..they're undefeated at home and 11-4 ATS vs AFC opponents at home in last fifteen...gotta bite small.
 
gl jump. stayin off den cuz of my trap rule and strongly against you w/ kc/stl.

good luck today! btw, even though pitt is the play on this game, can you please give me some n-put as to why the line is so low (why is vegas baiting us in?)
 
well....PIT is a strong home club, but I'm still surprised by the line...but I think PIT will get equal action at -3 as if it was pick PIT would get too much action....

PIT is still believed by the public to be a good team...I'm not so sure.
 
i dont know how long the public can lie to themselves, really. SI shows only 32% on pitt, which i believe is accurate (i cant imagine any more than this number.)

home faves that are fades as well hit upwards of 80%? can you back this?
 
Like I said, I know that PIT is a sharp play today.....I just think it's the wrong side...

I figure those numbers are close to accurate too...but I watched both Denver and Pitt in it's entirety last week...I can't back PIT right now.
 
Tough game Jump. I think Denver is the better team just not in the better spot here. Tatum Bell doesnt appear likely to play much at all or if he does be effective. I dont want Mike Bell to be my feature back against Pitt. Sure he looked great versus Indy but the Colts are bottom 5 in stoping the run so anyone with legs has a chance to look good versus them. Without a running game everyones biggest fear become reality...jake Plummer must win the game. Denver could be flat after losing such a big game vs Indy. Pitts problems really have been Big Ben. He litearrly handed OAK the game with2 pick 6's , He lost the game at Jax cause he was useless on offense and Cowher decided not to run , he lost the game versus Cincy at home and so on. The whole key to this equation is his productivity. This Steeler team had 450 passing yards and 5 TD passes with no picks vs ATL 2 weeks ago and smoked KC 45-7 three weeks ago...

If 'pro' bettors are backing Pitt its cause this line is where it should be @ -3. Like you said the books leave it a PK its all Pitt money at +3 almost the samething they have almost all Denver money....my point is really Den +3 is not any more valuable then PK. Earlyon Den was 6.5 @ NE but winning there took alot value out on them. remember cruised agaionst them in the playoffs...

Tough game I think as long as Pitt doesnt gift wrap this they win...then again I think I have a play on just about every game today...

GL bro!
 
haven't been in, but like i said up top, I'm playing Indy for a small bet..

Indy +3 (-102).....1 unit...1.02/1.00
 
Good call with the Broncos...at least I got the part about Pitt self destructing correct and Mike Bell not going to be able to run the ball...I just was silly enough to think Pitt would NOT have 3 turnovers inside the opposing 5 yd line and miss a FG...that only 24 points off the board...amazing how bad rthey are fundamentallly...GL
 
SportsNut said:
Good call with the Broncos...at least I got the part about Pitt self destructing correct and Mike Bell not going to be able to run the ball...I just was silly enough to think Pitt would NOT have 3 turnovers inside the opposing 5 yd line and miss a FG...that only 24 points off the board...amazing how bad rthey are fundamentallly...GL

Thanks bro...

Yeah, on Pitt, they have boatloads of talent on both sides of the ball, but they're just a bad football team right now....very strange shit..

And w/ public perception of them just waiting to break out of it, there may still be good lines to be had fading them...
 
SportsNut said:
Absolutely agree thinking Saints +6 looks interesting...

Agree completely w/ how they've shown up on the road they've certainly shown they're for real...a dominating win vs a TB team who had beaten Cincy and Philly at home last two home games was impressive...and the game at Carolina they outplayed Carolina IMO...
 
Nice 2-1 day Jump.

I was with you on the Rams so I feel the pain there. Nice call on the Broncos however, I was leaning heavily towards Pitt there but thankfully backed off.
 
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