Week 9 ML Dogs

s--k said:
I don't know how good of a match up Navy is for Temple. Temple DC hasn't directly faced much option since his days at Rice and Tulsa 15 or so years ago. DJ Eliot @JROCK1966 any comments (UK DC 2013-16). Their DL coach was at CSU last year, so recent experience vs AF. But that's about it.

So I don't know if it will be a good matchup, but I've been drawn to this Temple D at times this year. They've started most games well on D. Back-to-back INTs vs Tulsa, which won't apply this week, but they held Tulsa to 36 yards on their first 5 drives of the game. The UCF game, well, Temple didn't get many stops in that one. The game before that vs Memphis, Temple held them to 74y on their first 4 drives, all ended in punts and later in the 1H, none of Memphis' 7 1H drives advanced beyond the T39. They don't do quite as good in the 2H. I think back to the Rutgers game too, that Temple D, nearly won them the game vs Rutgers. Their D dominated vs poor Os in Lafayette and UMass, which shouldn't be given too much emphasis, it just shows some capability they have on that side of the ball. Temple has some disruptive DL and LBs in getting QB pressure. How those surprising and improved players do vs the option O with this staff is yet to be determined. Vs the traditional run at times, they have given up some big yards (Tulsa 299, UCF 304) - it's a different game vs Navy.

The primary problem with Temple is the growth on O has been slow. Not a good night vs Tulsa last Friday. Had a couple drives vs Memphis, but not many pts. You just can't count on their O to do much and it shouldn't be too hard for Navy D to contain and control this O. So I don't like that so much.

In 12 games last year, Navy was favored just once and that was vs Temple. Navy won 38-14 (-12.5). Temple was closing a disastrous season so I don't know much that can be drawn from that game. And Temple was a better team in the 2019-prior games so I don't think we can find inspiration in good Temple games vs Navy there.

Navy was favored once this year, week 1 vs Delaware -12 and they lost. Not counting bowl games, Navy has lost straight up 2 of their last 4 favorite roles 2020-2022.

I could see this being a lower scoring tight game.
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During Stoops tenure, our defense has always been well-coached....we've been outplayed and/or out-manned at times, but we've always been well-coached. One thing I've noticed about Stoops' run defense thru the years is we've always been better when he has that big run stuffer nose tackle playing...we've not been as good without him...so I would suggest possibly checking out Temple's nose takle...is he good? does he command double-teams? Hope that helps.
 
I’m really liking WVU this week. Everyone thought last week was the week TCU would run out of gas. Think it happens this week against a team that has had TCU’s number. WVU is very capable, and much better at home. Crazy mountaineer Halloween crowd….sign me up!
 
Gonna try to blow up the Top 10 with this one...3, 4, & 5-teamer RR with:

Penn State Nittany Lions +480
West Virginia Mountaineers +228
California Golden Bears +560
Kentucky Wildcats +340
Arizona Wildcats +390
Risked $16 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $6,578.41

Also played this big one...4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +101
Auburn Tigers Winner +136
West Virginia Mountaineers +228
Nebraska Cornhuskers +232
Arkansas State Red Wolves +265
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +113
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +400
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $9,885.24

Saved some of my lunch money for a couple more tomorrow morning after I've had my coffee...

BOLTA!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Gonna try to blow up the Top 10 with this one...3, 4, & 5-teamer RR with:

Penn State Nittany Lions +480
West Virginia Mountaineers +228
California Golden Bears +560
Kentucky Wildcats +340
Arizona Wildcats +390
Risked $16 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $6,578.41

Also played this big one...4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +101
Auburn Tigers Winner +136
West Virginia Mountaineers +228
Nebraska Cornhuskers +232
Arkansas State Red Wolves +265
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +113
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +400
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $9,885.24

Saved some of my lunch money for a couple more tomorrow morning after I've had my coffee...

BOLTA!
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cats
 
So far.

Ville. Really think they win this game, they have some guys in the front 7 who can just wreck a offense, that slow mesh is gonna struggle when ville defenders throwing a party at the mesh point, on the other side this game should feel like a spa day for cunningham after being just creamed play after play against pitt nasty front 7. I think he and the ville offense will get theirs amd while I don’t think you can fully stop Hartman amd co I think life will be tough on him, now can ville actually close it out late? That the concern for me.

Irish. Surprised they dogs, what cuse did last week was impressive and I don’t want ppl discrediting them but they have a real problem, they play that 3-3-5 d and they are undersized up front. I thought they would run blitz a lot more last week but they choose to drop 8 and confuse DJ, that did work but the problem was cuse figured out to just lean on them and that when we saw total domination by cuse, Shipley went for close to 200 on the ground and almost 300 as a team! So what can cuse do to combats that? They could bring the run blitz but that will leave them vulnerable to the pass, Payne has shown some signs lately and if cuse has to sell out how stop the run I think Payne can make them pay. On the other side while cuse pass game gas improved this OC has had a terrible time getting tucker off, last week they had success using tucker as a decoy and opening holes for Schrader to run, but once he was forced into known passing spots he struggled,, few weeks back babers made the comment he was just glad they bowl eligible, I don’t think they expect to win this game and I hate to say it but I don’t think they will. Irish will lean on the small cuse 3-3-5 and just wear these guys out playing the 2nd straight game they overmatched in the trenches,
 
Mizzou. Scary are 4 point favs why? Cause they beat the most overrated team in the country last week? Rattler is just as much garbage as Cook, mizzou can run the ball a bit and they won’t let scary run on them. Tigers are actually good on 3rd downs both sides the ball and scary is not. Don’t think less of mizzou cause they barely beat vandy, they not that good, but neither is scary and they will play the better defense. Take the +4 if you want cause this gonna be a low scoring snoozer! Dunno how they get to 45? This feels like 20-17 to me in a game tigers prob win but def cover!!
 
Added another...3, 4, & 5-teamer with:

San Diego State Aztecs 1st Half +248
Penn State Nittany Lions +480
Nebraska Cornhuskers +232
California Golden Bears +540
Kentucky Wildcats +340
Risked $16 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $4,546.12

BOLTA!
 
Last two....2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs with:

West Virginia Mountaineers +228
California Golden Bears +540
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +113
San Diego State Aztecs 1st Half +248
Risked $15.73 ($1.43 per Parlay) to Win $526.36


Notre Dame Fighting Irish +101
Penn State Nittany Lions +480
Auburn Tigers +136
West Virginia Mountaineers +228
Risked $15.83 ($1.43 per Parlay) to Win $361.01

BOLTA!!
 
s--k said:
Akron! Why not they've covered 4 of their last 5 actually! 1 play here or there and they beat Bowling Green and Central Mich. Would take more than a couple plays maybe, but them beating Kent last week wasn't completely out of the question given the Kent QB situation. Miami O just got upset by Western Michigan who had just been upset the two previous weeks. The MAC is full of upsets all the time and Akron is the only one left out of the party. Miami only scored 10 pts last week and only scored 13 the week prior vs MAC competition. Sure they have been better than that at times too. Akron's #1 problem in all their games has been their D. Their D should be able to handle what Miami is putting out there and the Zips O has had over 400y in 3 of their last 4. CM did hold them to 297. I would guess this game does down similar to the CM - Akron game did. CM won that 28-21 late on a long D fumble return TD, but it was 21-21 in the final minutes. I think this game has a chance like that, probably close and maybe tied late. Akron, you got this!
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Not sure I want to bet against Gabbert. He came back last week and definitely had some cobwebs but should be a massive upgrade over what they were trotting out there. I'm warming up to EMU though...Toledo QB Finn status is ??
 
Rare occasion I play on the team off a season defining loss but I did get Cuse +1 last week. Obviously I know they aren't a dog now but I don't think ND is anything special and they were able to exorcise their demons against UNLV last week after the Stanford loss. Also Clemson on deck for ND, just not sure how up they'll even get up for Cuse. Also 1 loss Cuse ranked 16th likely has a chip on its shoulder anyway. Pretty much a slap in their faces that they lost by a score at Clemson then see all the teams ranked ahead of them. Interesting game I guess but not seeing the Irish angle.
 
KJ said:
Rare occasion I play on the team off a season defining loss but I did get Cuse +1 last week. Obviously I know they aren't a dog now but I don't think ND is anything special and they were able to exorcise their demons against UNLV last week after the Stanford loss. Also Clemson on deck for ND, just not sure how up they'll even get up for Cuse. Also 1 loss Cuse ranked 16th likely has a chip on its shoulder anyway. Pretty much a slap in their faces that they lost by a score at Clemson then see all the teams ranked ahead of them. Interesting game I guess but not seeing the Irish angle.
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The Irish angle real simple bro; same angle as arky vs byu. They are gonna be able to physically dominate cuse small 3-3-5 front. I just don’t think Irish can look past teams this year, not like clemson gm important if they get beat here. Cuse will have to make some serious adjustments or Irish will run for 250 at least.
 
Has any team been more fortunate than tcu? Every team they play loses their qb before or in gm, they were getting beat by a backup last week until they got him out and were able to overcome a 3rd stringer. It a insane list of top 25 teams tcu has gotten to face missing their qb. Morgantown no joke, I been saying all year wvu was gonna upset somebody and this feels like that spot to me. I have no doubt they can score, long as jt Daniels don’t go down in the 1st qrtr this be a dogfight.
 
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2daBank said:
Has any team been more fortunate than tcu? Every team they play loses their qb before or in gm, they were getting beat by a backup last week until they got him out and were able to overcome a 3rd stringer. It a insane list of top 25 teams tcu has gotten to face missing their qb. Morgantown no joke, I been saying all year wvu was gonna upset somebody and this feels like that spot to me. I have no doubt they can score, long as jt Daniels don’t go down in the 1st qrtr this be a dogfight.
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I kind of want to like WVU off that horrible embarrassment down in Lubbick, but the WVU D has been bad most of the year makes me hesitate.

WVU upset Baylor, not like we consider that all that big of a deal. A win vs a higher ranked or perceived team could be in their future.

Tough run Frogs have been on we all agree.
 
2daBank said:
Has any team been more fortunate than tcu? Every team they play loses their qb before or in gm, they were getting beat by a backup last week until they got him out and were able to overcome a 3rd stringer. It a insane list of top 25 teams tcu has gotten to face missing their qb. Morgantown no joke, I been saying all year wvu was gonna upset somebody and this feels like that spot to me. I have no doubt they can score, long as jt Daniels don’t go down in the 1st qrtr this be a dogfight.
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After the gauntlet TCU just ran through this is a dangerous game for sure. On WVU + and ML
 
Marsski said:
One of the last plays of the game, carted off I think
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Yes I found it. INT on last play and I think Buffalo players stopped celebrating and took a knee after game was over while they tended to him on the field. Sounded like it was fairly bad at the time although I didn't find any update for today
 
s--k said:
Yes I found it. INT on last play and I think Buffalo players stopped celebrating and took a knee after game was over while they tended to him on the field. Sounded like it was fairly bad at the time although I didn't find any update for today
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Coach didn't tip his hand this week at news conference. Nothing on Finns twitter
 
Grabbed +5 and some ml as well....wish there was Hassan Beydoun over catches...I'd drop a dime on it....probably good i cant get down on it...
 
KJ said:
After the gauntlet TCU just ran through this is a dangerous game for sure. On WVU + and ML
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I feel like gauntlet a bit a overstatement considering every one those teams were either missing qb or lost during that game. On paper it looked fantastic but in reality they had to come back on bunch of backups, I played wvu small but I’m on both qb over passing yards.
 
s--k said:
I kind of want to like WVU off that horrible embarrassment down in Lubbick, but the WVU D has been bad most of the year makes me hesitate.

WVU upset Baylor, not like we consider that all that big of a deal. A win vs a higher ranked or perceived team could be in their future.

Tough run Frogs have been on we all agree.
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I like both qbs to hit their passing number today
 
2daBank said:
I feel like gauntlet a bit a overstatement considering every one those teams were either missing qb or lost during that game. On paper it looked fantastic but in reality they had to come back on bunch of backups, I played wvu small but I’m on both qb over passing yards.
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You gotta remember I'm situational, not x and o

My whole thing is done on paper regardless of who is playing unless backups have shown to be mental midgets for at least 3 consecutive games

Beating Texas was always going to be about beating Texas regardless the QB imo
 
KJ said:
You gotta remember I'm situational, not x and o

My whole thing is done on paper regardless of who is playing unless backups have shown to be mental midgets for at 3 consecutive games

Beating Texas was always going to be about beating Texas regardless the QB imo
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I get it but ya gotta factor the fact tcu been coming back on backups every week don’t ya?
 
2daBank said:
I get it but ya gotta factor the fact tcu been coming back on backups every week don’t ya?
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Honestly I don't know in this sport if backups are any better or worse than who they're replacing, thus the disclaimer that if they prove they suck for a few weeks in a row, it then becomes a factor. A lot of it is how early schedules are released and they probably have been thinking about that stretch of games for a bunch of months and I can't see it being a luckbox that they ran through it unblemished. Even good teams in CFB get beaten by backups, kind of the beauty of the sport.
 
2daBank said:
Well
Last week for tcu the backup kit them
Up, then he got hurt and 3rd string cane in and blew it
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Ha I can't even remember who they played last week w/o looking

Just remember it was a 4 game run on their schedule that was tough on paper
 
Gonna try one last time this weekend....3, 4, & 5-teamer RR with:

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +390
Arizona Wildcats +360
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +116
Kentucky Wildcats +310
San Diego State Aztecs 1st Half +234
Risked $45 ($2.81 per Parlay) to Win $5,113.69

BOLTA!
 
Bunch of small dogs yesterday. I think 6 upsets of dogs 4 ooints or less. Just 3 dogs TD+ with 1 DD won outright. So only 9 Saturday and counting the weekday games there were 12 this week.
 
KJ said:
Honestly I don't know in this sport if backups are any better or worse than who they're replacing, thus the disclaimer that if they prove they suck for a few weeks in a row, it then becomes a factor. A lot of it is how early schedules are released and they probably have been thinking about that stretch of games for a bunch of months and I can't see it being a luckbox that they ran through it unblemished. Even good teams in CFB get beaten by backups, kind of the beauty of the sport.
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Sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. I would say in general, it matters less than we think.

Related to ML dogs, I infamously changed out the Rice ML at Marshall two years ago when I learned late that the Rice QB was out, who had been solid and the backup had barely played. They crushed Marshall because they got like 4 turnovers and the backup QB barely threw the ball all game.

Yesterday Toledo's QB was out and the backup actually played really well, especially 2H. Eastern Mich still covered the deflated 3.5 pt line as a dog.

For TCU, Jason Bean actually played really well after Daniels went out. Sanders was banged up vs TCU, but he played the whole game. I think we saw yesterday that Will Howard can get it done (in fact, Martinez may not be any net upgrade over Howard when Will is at his best). The series of plays K St had their 3rd string QB in was unfortunate and did impact the game.

Sometimes a backup player can give their team a spark or it is difficult for the opposing D to adapt to the style change.

It's hard to say that injuries don't matter, but they definitely don't always matter as much as we think.

A difficult stretch run in a lot of emotional games and comebacks or close calls, it can take a toll, but I think at a certain point when it is all the time, it just becomes normal for them to operate in those kinds of games.
 
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Without comparing all the conferences, it seems that Conference USA may have the highest level of unpredictability.

Charlotte won as a 20 pt dog, lost as a 13.5 pt fav
FAU is a 3x frequent flyer loser
FIU has won as a 14.5 pt dog and a 13.5 pt dog
MTSU won as 11.5 and 25.5 pt dogs
Rice has won as 11.5 and 10 pt dogs
UAB has lost twice as a favorite
UTEP won as 16 pt dog
WKU lost as 5 pt fav

Only 3 teams in CUSA so far had neither been upset, nor pulled an upset: LaTech, North Tex and UTSA - although UNT-UTSA nearly just were involved in one last week as was LaTech.
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On the heels of posting that 4 of the 9 upsets yesterday were in CUSA
 
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