Week 9 ML Dogs

1st pass thru
and it was a very fast pass thru....

UConn
Penn St
ODU
Tulsa
Baylor
aTm
Pitt
 
KJ said:
So far:

Wash St
WVU
Tulsa

Will be on Ville, might take UMass on principle (gulp), possibles UNT, Mizzou, SDSU
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Utah will score, the question is can they stop WSU? I'm a little leery with this game. Would definitely take the points but would not be surprised to see WSU pull out a close one.
 
Two Utes said:
Utah will score, the question is can they stop WSU? I'm a little leery with this game. Would definitely take the points but would not be surprised to see WSU pull out a close one.
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Just tough to lay that many points on the road in a P5 conference during the week. Also it's that time of year to look at weather and how it can affect certain teams, haven't remotely gotten that far yet for this week.
 
Good Lawd....was interested in possibly backing North Texas this week but Seth Littrell is 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in games after playing UTSA. No thanks....

:popcorn:
 
Here is the latest tally on bad favorites and good dogs in outright wins/losses. After last week the list has gotten larger:

Teams with 3 losses when favored: Air Force, Central Michigan, FAU, Marshall (also won twice when dogged), Miami Fl, Nevada, NIU (also won once as a dog), Northwestern, Wisconsin

Teams with 3 wins when dogged: Eastern Michigan (also lost twice when favored), Georgia Southern, Kansas, Ohio, Troy

Without comparing all the conferences, it seems that Conference USA may have the highest level of unpredictability.

Charlotte won as a 20 pt dog, lost as a 13.5 pt fav
FAU is a 3x frequent flyer loser
FIU has won as a 14.5 pt dog and a 13.5 pt dog
MTSU won as 11.5 and 25.5 pt dogs
Rice has won as 11.5 and 10 pt dogs
UAB has lost twice as a favorite
UTEP won as 16 pt dog
WKU lost as 5 pt fav

Only 3 teams in CUSA so far had neither been upset, nor pulled an upset: LaTech, North Tex and UTSA - although UNT-UTSA nearly just were involved in one last week as was LaTech.

I would guess off hand, especially after last week, that the MAC is enjoying a lot of upsets one way or the other, but I might also guess the avg line in those upsets is relatively small by comparison to the CUSA average line.
 
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Checking now, indeed the MAC has been volatile.

Ball State: upset once, pulled two upsets
Bowling Green pulled two upsets
Buffalo pulled two upsets
Central Michigan been upset three times
Eastern Michigan pulled 3 upsets and been upset twice in 8 games
Kent State has been upset once
Miami Oh has pulled two upsets and been upset themselves once
Northern Illinois has been upset three times and pulled one upset
Ohio has pulled 3 upsets
Toledo has been upset twice
Western Michigan has been upset twice

Yet another list Akron is left off of. But they're trying. They almost lost as a favorite week 1 vs Bryant and has been close to an upset vs CM and Bowling Green while also being feisty at times in others.
 
If the big12 crew that was doing the Texas at OkSt game are involved in the TCU at WVU game then you can forget about WVU winning.

Corn is the one that stands out to me but i am not really handicapping either.
 
Washington State definitely deserves some attention.

Oregon is proving to be quite a good team vs opponents not named Georgia. Wazzou had leads such as 17-9, 27-15 and 34-22 in the 4th Q. Ducks did do some things well in that game and they were the better team who ultimately came back to win. Each team had a pick-six, but Oregon kicked lots of FGs and had bunches of yards and explosive plays - I am not sure that is something Utah can duplicate. Rising is awesome, but the overall weapons and big plays in the passing game beating Wazzou, I don't think that is who Utah is. It's Kincaid and a couple decent receivers, but no game breakers like Oregon's Franklin is and was against W St. W St did well on D vs USC.

On a bad note, Wash State didn't score much at Ore St a few weeks ago although they outgained the Beavers - Oregon State D won that game. I thought Washington State played pretty well at USC despite not covering. W St led 14-10 and only trailed 14-17 HT. They were only outgained by 50y and ypp was the same. Solid defensive outing from them. Lots of penalties in that one aided USC.

The Oregon State win for Utah was misleading, think that was a much closer game than 42-16, some things happened there. While I loved the Utah win vs USC, I really did, a couple calls here or there definitely helped early in that game when it seemed like USC might run away with it. Utah on the road this year, lost by 10 at UCLA, lost late vs Florida. Week 1 games should almost be thrown out for analysis, especially at this point.

First time this series has featured a Cougar team not led by Leach or Rolo in a long time. So while the last 3 in the series went to Utah on average by 35.6 - 18 score, this W St team should be better suited - better D and more of a bigger stronger playmaker at QB and not quite as boom or bust as De Lura was for them. Ward is just young coming into this year, he was a true sophomore making the jump to FBS after an outstanding year at FCS as a tr Fr. So I think some expentations for him and this offense out the gate weren't fair and maybe he wasn't quite ready at times - and maybe that is still the case. He is capable of making the winning plays in this game though. Obviously Rising is as well.

I think Wazzou D can limit some of the Utah O. It is going to come down to how well Cam Ward plays which is difficult to predict. Vs the Utah corners, they probably get him a couple times, if that happens can Wazzou overcome some turnovers and still win? Probably only if they get atleast one important one themselves.
 
Washington State as a home dog since they've been a winning program starting in the 2015 season, they are 7-3 ATS and 1-0 in that role this year, so 8-3. 5 of those 8 were outright wins.

They are not normally this big of a dog at home. Were +7.5 last year and led USC at HT 14-7, lost 14-45 (de Lura DNP 2H).
 
Said in VC's preview article on the VT- NC State game, would seem like VT has just as much of a chance to win that game as NC State does? Maybe?
 
Does McIntyre have something cooking down there at FIU? 2 wins in their last 4 games, 3-1 ATS in that stretch. LT has been stronger at home than they have on the road. FIU did lose to UConn and only scored 12pts, but they put up 409 yards in that one.
 
I'm pretty scared of the Nebraska D vs Illinois. Not like Illini O is great, they are good generally. Illini have actually won the last 2 in the series including an 18 pt win as 16.5 dog in Lincoln 2 years ago. Definitely like the spot for Nebraska, home off the bye, vs a team that they should be very motivated to beat given recent history...but can their D stop anyone? The D was good vs IU and Rutgers, but that is IU and Rutgers.

Then on the other hand...really how good is Illinois? 26-14 vs Minnesota is good and all, 472 yards is good, but 4 FGs from the RZ. Are those possessions that could've or should've been TDs, or is Illinois not good enough on O to reliably make those possessions TDs? They are in fact second to last in the B1G in RZ TD %, 13 on 33 attempts and doing it on the road is tougher. The Iowa game, it's Iowa, so I don't know. I do give them credit for the Wisconsin win. That game was a close one at HT, think Illinois was leading at HT by 3 maybe, mostly turnover fueled and Illinois D just dominated them in the 2H, but that's Wisconsin. Always with the buts. Nebraska O at it's best can be pretty stressful on a D....ask Purdue. O was fire vs Purdue, but it was not vs Rutgers or Indiana. They go from 4.3 ypp vs OU, 4.9 ypp vs IU and 4.6 ypp vs Rut to all of a sudden, boom, 9 ypp vs Purdue. Illinois D pretty good, but they have had an EASY opposing O schedule. I mean, I don't know if there is a P5 team that has faced a weaker opposing O slate of scoring offenses.

I could see this happening. Feels like a game I am more comfortable taking the pts than I am the ML
 
Last time UConn had a home game they beat Fresno! It was kind of hard, but they did it. I ML'd BC last week at Wake, so I must think they are kinda good or have some potential to be better than they've shown (it was kind of an anti-Wake play as well). Would be weird for me to be on BC last week and be against them this week, but I do stuff like that. A new week is a new week. So can UConn compete here? I tend to want to say no in terms of winning. It's a really big statement chance for Mora in the region and while his teams didn't fair well vs P5 teams earlier in the season they have been on a good run, but it's still UConn. Like I said FIU put up over 400y on them and they found a way to lose to Ball State before their bye. Another game I am likely comfortable taking the pts, but not sure I risk the ML
 
Akron! Why not they've covered 4 of their last 5 actually! 1 play here or there and they beat Bowling Green and Central Mich. Would take more than a couple plays maybe, but them beating Kent last week wasn't completely out of the question given the Kent QB situation. Miami O just got upset by Western Michigan who had just been upset the two previous weeks. The MAC is full of upsets all the time and Akron is the only one left out of the party. Miami only scored 10 pts last week and only scored 13 the week prior vs MAC competition. Sure they have been better than that at times too. Akron's #1 problem in all their games has been their D. Their D should be able to handle what Miami is putting out there and the Zips O has had over 400y in 3 of their last 4. CM did hold them to 297. I would guess this game does down similar to the CM - Akron game did. CM won that 28-21 late on a long D fumble return TD, but it was 21-21 in the final minutes. I think this game has a chance like that, probably close and maybe tied late. Akron, you got this!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Is Georgia Tech the upset of the week? I'm seeing some good things in their favor....

:popcorn:
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I don't think I can join that. I would say the line appears too high, but winning? No. I had them vs Pitt and I tell you if Pitt DBs could catch Sims would've had like 3 INTs. If Pitt receivers could've caught their own passes, that game would've been different. I was lucky, GT was lucky. All you hope for is the favorite has an off night, maybe there is some reason to think that be the case and you hope the dog is under estimated and poised for a surprise performance.

What can you tell me you have on them beating FSU?
 
So let me ask, like with UMass. Or any say, 2 or 2.5 pt dog. Is it really worth it to you to ML them? I guess it depends on the amount risked, but for me, at my numbers getting the points on a line like that is way more valuable than +115. I'm laying -110 to get 2.5 pts and if they lose that game by 1 or 2 pts and I'm on the ML I;m besides myself pissed I didn't just do the ATS. If I'm betting a buck, a $25 difference isn't worth it to me. Now if somebody is risking much more when that spread multiples, maybe it makes sense? I don't know, but I just never ever would ML any dog under 3, the risk is not worth the reward.
 
I want something on Penn State, but I also want to continue to try getting away from betting against the elite top-5 type teams. Maybe if I feel like I am being super super selective when I do it. I had Iowa 1H+18 last week. Felt like a chance to steal one and it worked. Should I risk it and go against the mighty Buckeye Machine again this week? Well if Michigan ran for 400, what will OSU do? I don't believe that Ohio State is wired that way. OSU has backs capable, but their play calling and their blocking and personnel doesn't make me think that is something that OSU can or will do. Unless it is some kind of measuring stick? Ohio State wants to be more physical this year, they want to challenge themselves more in that way in light of what happened vs Michigan last year so maybe they commit more to the run this week and try to get good results like Michigan did? I don't know. I think Penn State D as a better matchup vs OSU than they are/were vs Michigan.

Penn State hasn't beat them in a while, but it is a series where Penn State has been fairly competitive vs some really good OSU teams. Other than the Covid year when PSU was bad vs everyone the first half of the year.

2021 24-33 +19.5 away
2020 25-38 +10.5 home
2019 17-28 +19 away
2018 26-27 +3.5 home
2017 38-39 +6.5 away
2016 24-21 +19 home

So they have lost the last 5 straight-up, but covered all those except the Covid year. I probably need to see if the 2018 or 2016 were white out games because this one isn't and that would've been a boast in those games.

It does look that Penn State is having a harder time replacing some of their losses on D.

I'm just as curious as anyone to see an offense with a pulse play this Ohio State D because Buckeye fans are pretty proud of their D right now. And Knowles is good. But where is the test? Notre Dame? ND was pretty good for what 2+ quarters of that one, but week 1, what are we going to take from that at this point? It's been a pretty bad schedule of quality offenses so that would be where I have hope for Penn State that maybe OSU hasn't been tested by a competent experienced QB with some play makers that OSU hasn't had to face yet? I know that Michigan shut down PSU O pretty well, but they are different teams with different styles. Michigan also didn't have a bad defense last year like OSU did, so it's with the 'buts' again, Ohio State D is improved and it's better, yeah but...

This literally has to be the game of the year for Franklin doesn't it? Auburn was on the road, out of conference. This is The Ohio State University and you're at home. It is GOY and looking at the scores through the years, PSU plays it like a GOY, they hang, they just don't win many.

You know it's funny last week, you look at CJ Stroud's stat line 20-30-286-4-1, in the 3rd Q I watched Iowa drop and INT in the EZ and the very next play Iowa INT'd him, but somebody somewhere on Iowa was called for facemask and the INT came off. Two should've been INTs and instead, OSU gets a TD on that possession. That kind of stuff doesn't fly with me. I try to not hate on the big teams, but I like these teams to get humbled a little bit sometimes, the problem is the games where it can happen are just so few and far between. How many games realistically does OSU have a chance to lose any given year, 2? This is one of them. And it doesn't happen often but when it does you're going to get paid 6 to 7:1. Because I want it, I will probably be on it.

The Penn State O is where the key has to lie. Clifford needs to be amazing. Last year he was good passing, but wasn't the running threat. I forget, was he banged up, not 100% in that one? He was wasn't he because that was after Iowa and then they played him vs Illinois in the 7 OT or whatever loss and he was clearly playing hurt. No, this is the game for him. It's what his career comes down to. Did you beat Ohio State? He needs the exact game he had last week, 295y passing 4-1 ratio 74%, but he needs to run, he needs a big run like vs Michigan or a running game like Michigan 2020.

Franklin says he team has been built or building to beat Ohio State. Well, you say that, and....
 
s--k said:
I'm pretty scared of the Nebraska D vs Illinois. Not like Illini O is great, they are good generally. Illini have actually won the last 2 in the series including an 18 pt win as 16.5 dog in Lincoln 2 years ago. Definitely like the spot for Nebraska, home off the bye, vs a team that they should be very motivated to beat given recent history...but can their D stop anyone? The D was good vs IU and Rutgers, but that is IU and Rutgers.

Then on the other hand...really how good is Illinois? 26-14 vs Minnesota is good and all, 472 yards is good, but 4 FGs from the RZ. Are those possessions that could've or should've been TDs, or is Illinois not good enough on O to reliably make those possessions TDs? They are in fact second to last in the B1G in RZ TD %, 13 on 33 attempts and doing it on the road is tougher. The Iowa game, it's Iowa, so I don't know. I do give them credit for the Wisconsin win. That game was a close one at HT, think Illinois was leading at HT by 3 maybe, mostly turnover fueled and Illinois D just dominated them in the 2H, but that's Wisconsin. Always with the buts. Nebraska O at it's best can be pretty stressful on a D....ask Purdue. O was fire vs Purdue, but it was not vs Rutgers or Indiana. They go from 4.3 ypp vs OU, 4.9 ypp vs IU and 4.6 ypp vs Rut to all of a sudden, boom, 9 ypp vs Purdue. Illinois D pretty good, but they have had an EASY opposing O schedule. I mean, I don't know if there is a P5 team that has faced a weaker opposing O slate of scoring offenses.

I could see this happening. Feels like a game I am more comfortable taking the pts than I am the ML
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indiana comp is pretty good for illinois vs nebraska - i expect similar type of game , and like we saw in that one, beliema as a fav holding a lead kinda feels like fickell and cincy last week - a slow painful death

i laid it with illinois but line does feel about right - my illinois case is as much as i don't like them laying points nebraska couldn't score on oklahoma, couldn't beat georgia southern or a nw team as good as miami oh......since then they've played an indiana team missing it's 2 best wide receivers and with them i not sure they cover, rutgers, and a purdue team that as a fav almost let a shitty fau beat them ......i can't say there is for sure major improvement with nebraska but i think some defensive improvement

I think illinois is a proven solid, but not spectular team; maybe an overrated team that can be upset on the road - but still definately a better team then nebraska

like the indiana - illinois game the nebraska points should come through the air and illinois hasn't been tested themselves since that indiana game where they looked totally unprepared in the back end at times - the over imo is going to hit here if nebraska puts up a fight, i don't think the over is a bad play at all here. illinois should be able to run well here and reach 30s.
 
Dog MLs of the TD variety are pretty risky by nature and doing it on Nebraska certainly adds in that risk as they have failed at it so so many times.

One thing against Illinois could be, byes are always great to get players healthy, get a little creative in practice and the gameplan, but byes sometimes can break momentum I feel. I feel like the bye helps Nebraska because they need to fix things and figure out how to get better and doesn't help Illinois as much because they were kind of rolling and proving to themselves how they can win games against supposed better teams in their division, they may've been better off just to keep rolling with that enthusiasm rather than a pause.
 
I think AU deserves a look. They've won 6 straight in the series and this game is in AU where there's always some voodoo. Harsin may be dead man walking but the team hasn't quit on him from what I've seen. I'm not sure either team is going to be able to stop the other so should be a 4th quarter game where anything can happen.
 
gps_3 said:
I think AU deserves a look. They've won 6 straight in the series and this game is in AU where there's always some voodoo. Harsin may be dead man walking but the team hasn't quit on him from what I've seen. I'm not sure either team is going to be able to stop the other so should be a 4th quarter game where anything can happen.
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Thought about them too, seriously no clue what to expect from Arkansas. Hogs are a complete fade for me but I hate that angle against a team led by a coach that's walking the plank. Very unpredictable game imo, could be a shootout, could be a complete dud.
 
KJ said:
So far:

Wash St
WVU
Tulsa

Will be on Ville, might take UMass on principle (gulp), possibles UNT, Mizzou, SDSU
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That line pretty much screams ville doesn’t it? What normal person doesn’t see wake -3.5 and want to unload? Fuxk it crossed my mind and I’m not close to normal. I can say some good things about ville, they got a couple dudes on the defense that if they feel like playing could totally destroy that slow mesh with penetration, they lived in pitt backfield last week, outside a few big runs early they took away the run game and were clobbering Slovis. Obviously we all know the offense mostly revolves around Cunningham if he healthy, pitt beat the ever loving hell out of him last week. Assuming he fine and he played most that game outside the few times they made him get off the field and go get looked at, this game should feel like a vacation for him against wake d, I have little doubt he will be able to run around and make bunch of plays which should open up the running backs to have big holes up the middle. I could absolutely talk myself into ville here, biggest problem is they drive me crazy, have to decide if I can deal with that!! They could be up 2 scores in 4th and get beat by wake, that wouldn’t shock me at all.
 
2daBank said:
That line pretty much screams ville doesn’t it? What normal person doesn’t see wake -3.5 and want to unload? Fuxk it crossed my mind and I’m not close to normal. I can say some good things about ville, they got a couple dudes on the defense that if they feel like playing could totally destroy that slow mesh with penetration, they lived in pitt backfield last week, outside a few big runs early they took away the run game and were clobbering Slovis. Obviously we all know the offense mostly revolves around Cunningham if he healthy, pitt beat the ever loving hell out of him last week. Assuming he fine and he played most that game outside the few times they made him get off the field and go get looked at, this game should feel like a vacation for him against wake d, I have little doubt he will be able to run around and make bunch of plays which should open up the running backs to have big holes up the middle. I could absolutely talk myself into ville here, biggest problem is they drive me crazy, have to decide if I can deal with that!! They could be up 2 scores in 4th and get beat by wake, that wouldn’t shock me at all.
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I believe that over the years Ville has been expected to score 40+ on anyone and that hasn't been the case for a couple years now. To me, it's created an undervalue where just as you said, they are perceived to be hard to trust. I trust Cunningham. For me they are extremely valuable to wager on right now and Wake are still overvalued.

Side note for anyone who wants to fade Wake, that Clemson game earned at least 2-3 weeks more of fading than had they just gotten blown out like they should have.
 
KJ said:
I believe that over the years Ville has been expected to score 40+ on anyone and that hasn't been the case for a couple years now. To me, it's created an undervalue where just as you said, they are perceived to be hard to trust. I trust Cunningham. For me they are extremely valuable to wager on right now and Wake are still overvalued.

Side note for anyone who wants to fade Wake, that Clemson game earned at least 2-3 weeks more of fading than had they just gotten blown out like they should have.
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It isn’t really Cunningham I don’t trust, he should have a field day vs wake. I guess it satterfiekd, outside of last week they mostly been a fucking mess in 4th qrtr, 2nd half in general last few years. I have to go back and look but want to say I was probably on ville last year vs wake and felt really good til the stinking 4th, might not have been wake my memory sucks, I know the wake game was close, might have actually cashed that one ats. I think ville defense better now than it was last year and that game came down to wire at wake. I don’t think anyone be wrong for not trusting ville, im generally pretty good w them (acc in general) and they still catch me off guard at times off what I expect, good or bad. Consistency is def a issue, they play their A game there no reason they don’t win this game,, just if it close late coaching edge has to go wake’s way, hopefully they up enough it won’t matter, I’m prob thinking more about taking every point I can get opposed to ml.
 
2daBank said:
It isn’t really Cunningham I don’t trust, he should have a field day vs wake. I guess it satterfiekd, outside of last week they mostly been a fucking mess in 4th qrtr, 2nd half in general last few years. I have to go back and look but want to say I was probably on ville last year vs wake and felt really good til the stinking 4th, might not have been wake my memory sucks, I know the wake game was close, might have actually cashed that one ats. I think ville defense better now than it was last year and that game came down to wire at wake. I don’t think anyone be wrong for not trusting ville, im generally pretty good w them (acc in general) and they still catch me off guard at times off what I expect, good or bad. Consistency is def a issue, they play their A game there no reason they don’t win this game,, just if it close late coaching edge has to go wake’s way, hopefully they up enough it won’t matter, I’m prob thinking more about taking every point I can get opposed to ml.
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It was 5.5 when I first looked and was hoping for 6 and willing to trade that hope for the reality that it went to 4 which is still a key number.

Haven't looked at lines today yet but for me 4-5.5 fall in that same range as 7.5-9.5 in general although in college a point matters a ton more than it does in the pros
 
KJ said:
It was 5.5 when I first looked and was hoping for 6 and willing to trade that hope for the reality that it went to 4 which is still a key number.

Haven't looked at lines today yet but for me 4-5.5 fall in that same range as 7.5-9.5 in general although in college a point matters a ton more than it does in the pros
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Oh shit, I love getting 4+, coulda swore I saw a -3.5 on wake when I looked.
 
I've flipped on my WSU/Utah thoughts. Their only tough opponent at home has been Oregon and yes it was close. Talking with a friend close to the program the team is in a good frame of mind and focused.

Another Utah angle, Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe's last games were both against WSU. They are wearing the tribute helmets to them tomorrow night, the same helmets that they used for USC which were going to be one time only.
 
This trend reminds us sometimes we need counter-intuitive angle(s) picking a dog to win a game outright....just bringing this up for information purposes. Last two weeks home dogs with a net turnover loss of 5 or greater than their opponents have gone 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS. FWIW, this trend is active on 8 home dogs this weekend. See below.

week9_turnovers.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
This trend reminds us sometimes we need counter-intuitive angle(s) picking a dog to win a game outright....just bringing this up for information purposes. Last two weeks home dogs with a net turnover loss of 5 or greater than their opponents have gone 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS. FWIW, this trend is active on 8 home dogs this weekend. See below.

View attachment 69749
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Posting for info purposes...on a whim thought I'd check out how road dogs were doing...same setup as above this time it's for road dogs with lines less than 5, they are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS since week 6. This trend is active on 1 team this weekend...Notre Dame. See below. Good luck in what you decide:

week9_turnovers2.jpg
 
Side note for anyone who wants to fade Wake, that Clemson game earned at least 2-3 weeks more of fading than had they just gotten blown out like they should have.
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Wake is 3-0 ATS since the Clemson game. I started trying to fade them last week. Hopefully it works this week because I really don't think I want to do it with the NC State offense next week.
 
Two Utes said:
I've flipped on my WSU/Utah thoughts. Their only tough opponent at home has been Oregon and yes it was close. Talking with a friend close to the program the team is in a good frame of mind and focused.

Another Utah angle, Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe's last games were both against WSU. They are wearing the tribute helmets to them tomorrow night, the same helmets that they used for USC which were going to be one time only.
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Sounds like they are going to the well too many times now. How many times are they going to use that? At some point it loses it's effectiveness. They should've kept it a one time only, but we don't live in that kind of society now. More of something is always better.
 
The Toledo - Eastern Michigan series has been close of late:

2021- EM +9 52-49
2020 - Tol -6.5 45-28
2019 - Tol -3.5 37-34 OT
2018 - EM +1.5 28-26
2017 - Tol -13.5 20-15

4 of 5 EM covers, 2 outright wins. Ya just kind of never know which Eastern team is going to show up week to week. I would need a better pulse on EM to ML this.
 
s--k said:
Sounds like they are going to the well too many times now. How many times are they going to use that? At some point it loses it's effectiveness. They should've kept it a one time only, but we don't live in that kind of society now. More of something is always better.
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Team leadership makes the call. They've only worn them once, WSU will be #2. I won't be on this one either way but I'm passing on Wazzu ML
 
Arkansas State was a dud last week, worse game I think than their JMU loss. They are now just 2-6 SU, but 6-2 ATS, you don't see that too often.

Blackman was out last week and AJ Meyer was pretty bad (8-23-155-1-1). Tr Fr QB Dailey played a few snaps. I'm not sure of Blackman's status this week.

South Alabama off home loss to Troy in Sun Belt West showdown. USA is now 2 games behind Troy due to losing head to head vs them. Not sure if there might be some let down after losing such a consequential game? South Alabama has actually been fading of late, after starting 4-0 ATS, they are now on a 0-3 ATS streak (won by 3 laying 8.5, won by 7 laying 17 and lost by 4 laying 3). Ark St followed up their previous dud with a 19-20 loss at USM - Ark St led the entire game until USM took lead with 2min to go.

Not sure right now which way to go on this one? As good as Ark State has been at times and close as they've been, they just haven't got an upset win yet and they could be wearing out a little bit.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Good Lawd....was interested in possibly backing North Texas this week but Seth Littrell is 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in games after playing UTSA. No thanks....

:popcorn:
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Twice it was season finale, so I guess it is grading their bowl games which doesn't seem real relevant. But still 0-4 SU/ATS...

UNT has been good on the road this year, other than the UNLV game, which seems like so long ago now. So the UTSA game was on the road, tough loss to get off the mat from. They did lost by 10 to Memphis (+12), but they outgained them by 140 yards. Won at UTEP week 1 pretty comfortably. UNT has actually covered 6 of their last 7 road games and won 4 of those straight up (two favored and two very small dog roles).

I might guess that UNT can get 30 or more pts, which makes the +10 appealing.

Not a real impressive victory vs UAB given the fact that UAB QB was knocked out and their backup was pretty poor and WKU struggled to win by 3. UAB solid team still, so tough game, but UNT O should test them. WKU O should test UNT D as well. As long as UNT's heads aren't still stuck in the Alamo Dome, they should compete here right unless there is something about the UTSA hangover that is a real thing?
 
s--k said:
The Toledo - Eastern Michigan series has been close of late:

2021- EM +9 52-49
2020 - Tol -6.5 45-28
2019 - Tol -3.5 37-34 OT
2018 - EM +1.5 28-26
2017 - Tol -13.5 20-15

4 of 5 EM covers, 2 outright wins. Ya just kind of never know which Eastern team is going to show up week to week. I would need a better pulse on EM to ML this.
Click to expand...
Hassan Beydoun time
 
I don't know how good of a match up Navy is for Temple. Temple DC hasn't directly faced much option since his days at Rice and Tulsa 15 or so years ago. DJ Eliot @JROCK1966 any comments (UK DC 2013-16). Their DL coach was at CSU last year, so recent experience vs AF. But that's about it.

So I don't know if it will be a good matchup, but I've been drawn to this Temple D at times this year. They've started most games well on D. Back-to-back INTs vs Tulsa, which won't apply this week, but they held Tulsa to 36 yards on their first 5 drives of the game. The UCF game, well, Temple didn't get many stops in that one. The game before that vs Memphis, Temple held them to 74y on their first 4 drives, all ended in punts and later in the 1H, none of Memphis' 7 1H drives advanced beyond the T39. They don't do quite as good in the 2H. I think back to the Rutgers game too, that Temple D, nearly won them the game vs Rutgers. Their D dominated vs poor Os in Lafayette and UMass, which shouldn't be given too much emphasis, it just shows some capability they have on that side of the ball. Temple has some disruptive DL and LBs in getting QB pressure. How those surprising and improved players do vs the option O with this staff is yet to be determined. Vs the traditional run at times, they have given up some big yards (Tulsa 299, UCF 304) - it's a different game vs Navy.

The primary problem with Temple is the growth on O has been slow. Not a good night vs Tulsa last Friday. Had a couple drives vs Memphis, but not many pts. You just can't count on their O to do much and it shouldn't be too hard for Navy D to contain and control this O. So I don't like that so much.

In 12 games last year, Navy was favored just once and that was vs Temple. Navy won 38-14 (-12.5). Temple was closing a disastrous season so I don't know much that can be drawn from that game. And Temple was a better team in the 2019-prior games so I don't think we can find inspiration in good Temple games vs Navy there.

Navy was favored once this year, week 1 vs Delaware -12 and they lost. Not counting bowl games, Navy has lost straight up 2 of their last 4 favorite roles 2020-2022.

I could see this being a lower scoring tight game.
 
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