Week 9 CFB




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
overall

spreads: 75-54-2, 57.2% +48.96 units

Clemson -6.5 (+110) 2 units

ML dogs: 30-53, 32.2% +13.66 units

none yet.

Clemson convinced me last week when I bet on GT early. ....course, that was as much a function of betting on Reggie Fucking Ball........

But since Clemson's scare at Wake Forest.....a much better team than anyone (including me) is willing to admit, the Tigers have played inspired football, and even against GT's relatively stout defense, Clemson ran all the fuck over the jackets for 338 yards at 8.9ypc. Maybe VPI at home can do better than the jackets, but I doubt it. Clemson is sniffing ACC championship and a BCS bowl bid, though I think they realize a NC is a bit optimistic this year (see my sig), but the ACC championship is theirs for the taking or losing, and they know it.

I expect another crushing week from a real Bowden team.

GL this week fellas. I know a lot of us took a hit in week 8, so let's win it the fuck back.

:cheers:
 
starting to wonder the same thing Rb..everyone is on VT's nuts this week as a home dog...really liked VT starting yesterday and some today but after looking this game over I don't know anymore.
 
well, maybe I fucked myself with a line again by taking it early. Hope not, but I like this by 10-14, so I'll take -6.5. Hell, I sold it up to there....
 
UCLA +110
Louisiana Tech +337
Wyoming +204
MTSU +135
Miami +204
Indiana +260
New Mexico +224
 
Redbearde, I feel a solid week ahead for ya...

I think there may be some value with NIU +740 & NMSU +840... both playing on the road at notoriously tough places resulting in inflated lines, but I think both have legitmate chances. Wondering if you pondered these two any...
 
I'm pondering NMSU....that's for sure. No guarantee I'll play it, but I sure am pondering what you're pondering, pinky...
 
from time to time I post in garf's thread, and I'll repost here:

QUOTE Originally Posted by TheGarfather:

bearde, GL this week. Do you think UCLA seems trappish? I am generally not a big believer in that sort of thing, but my God, why on the earth is Wazzu laying chalk away from the Palouse. Fishy, if you are asking me. The linesmakers do realize that Brady Lief was playing, right? I am inclined to agree on the Lobos. Motivation edge for the Cowboys, but I think the Frogs are still just better. Don't know enough about Miami's team just yet.


I don't believe in trap lines. I believe the linesmakers put the line where they think they'll get split money on both sides. Wazzou doing well at home against Oregon and Oregon St (who expected them to do well vs Cal?) might make people think they'll do well at UCLA... Certainly, UCLA has the better defense, and even with this backup, the Bruins should put up a few points... I like it. Fishy as far as the expected result, sure, but I honestly don't believe books set TRAPS for folks who take the WRONG side. It suggests a precognition which, if they had it, they'd use a helluva lot more often, don'tchya think?

As far as the Miami Thugs are concerned, they get their secondary back...unless attitudes change there in the administration (HAH!), and I think they'll have this "Us against the world" mentality. And Reggie Ball looked hurt to me on Saturday. Sure, he was fairly mobile, but he couldn't throw a pass to save his nuts. Even Calvin Johnson can't catch a ball thrown into the dirt 20 yards in front of him...now, that may have been Ball's usual lack of ability showing through this season, but I saw him reaching for his leg several times, and even Mr Patrick was noticing him not setting his feet properly. Anyway, it should be a low scoring defensive affair, and I would honestly expect a rejuvenated defense to score on GT's offense...and that's IF Miami's offense can't get anything done...
 
thanks smo1a, Good luck to you, too.

Northern Illinois +840

With Tate out, Iowa damn near lost to the Syracuse rushing attack. I'll take 8.4:1 here and hope Wolfe can get his rushing in gear.
 
Maryland +170

This is a tossup at worst. How FSU can lay points on the road at this point, I don't know.
 
I like that Maryland play Red.. FSU sitting in last place in their division, yet they're still favored on the road. Same feelings there.
 
redbearde said:
Maryland +170

This is a tossup at worst. How FSU can lay points on the road at this point, I don't know.
Click to expand...

Well I am admittedly a little bit biased here, but I agree that MD has a good chance to win this game. They played a solid game against NCST last week though very conservative at times. Ralph seems to play it really tight to the vest in the red zone and you can count on MD going run, run, and maybe pass on 3rd down. I think he has a little distrust of his WR's in general this year due to lack of experience. MD has settled for way too many FG's after being in the red zone and will need to open up the passing game some this week against an FSU team that despite all their injuries is still doing a good job stopping the run. I think MD has a good enough OL to hold their own against a good FSU DL in this one. MD improved a little bit this past weekend defensively and were finally able to get some pressure on the qb (4 sacks of Evans). They still worry me against the run but FSU doesn't have a particularly strong ground game. MD should get a boost from the home crowd this weekend with a night game and plenty of time to get oiled up. I think this one will be very close and if MD can avoid TO's and Ralph will go play action once in a while, they could pull off the SU win.
 
Redbearde: Good luck on your card this week.

Games that I have as close enough to consider......depending on value....

Haven't looked at Garfs or anybody's posts much this week, so good cases may have been made against any of these....

Oklahoma has a shot to win this.....injury info notwithstanding.

I have Purdue on my radar....at home....

Also showing a pretty strong chance on Ball State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Iowa State vs. K State....why not?....depending on value...

New Mexico State... I'm on the points, might take a shot here as well. I have the game within a point or two...

Honorable Mention goes to...New Mexico, Arizona State, and Toledo (again I show them winning but I have lost a bunch of money on them this year....not sure why they keep coming up as a pick for me every week).
 
Timh said:
I think he has a little distrust of his WR's in general this year due to lack of experience.
Click to expand...

That's too bad. Heyward-bey is getting to be quite the playmaker...
Anyway, given FSU's problems this year and Maryland's recent success, I really just don't understand the Noles' laying points on the road at all...

It does concern me that Fridgen let the wolfpack back in the game, sorta, but that's attributable to playing prevent in the 4th quarter. UM will need to play turnover free football, and the terps will have to capitalize on the Noles' turnovers, but I like my odds here.

Larice,

thanks for your comments. Oklahoma doesn't have much value in it, in my opinion, and the points may well come into play...

Purdue is interesting...though Morelli played last week. Any reason to think he wouldn't play this week?

I think Ball St might have a shot. Good luck with that. Anything can happen in the MAC.

Iowa St has zero defense. I'm not a fan of playing a team like that.
 
UCF +17.5 (+104) 2 units
Aggie/Baylor O54 (-105)
Nothwestern +33.5 (-108) 2 units

I'm waiting on a line or two......notably Notre Dame to get tolerably below 14. I don't know why folks like Navy in this game........I think they're going to make ND's defense look almost adequate. Without Hampton, Navy will struggle til next season.

Feel free to try to convince me otherwise. Shouldn't take all THAT much with the Irish laying DDs...
 
With you on ND. I'm going to make it my personal goal to bet ND every game and never admit they don't have it, even when they don't cover...
 
North Texas? Going against Hoover High alum Cornelius Williams?

Nah, might be worth a try. I swear, if you could just somehow get to watch all those games on TV, you could probably make a killing betting that shit ass conference...I look at the team past results, but I don't even know what to make of them, because I have no idea how to think of a team like LA Monroe...
 
North Texas is absolute shit. So is Troy St.

Garf and Matador both like this play, and that's often enough for me...

But it's really hard to say on any given day that any Sunbelt team is 3:1 or better than another.

I used this style a few weeks ago betting on shitass Florida Atlantic getting over 5:1. I find MLB to be pretty erratic, too...imagine getting over 3:1 regularly on ANY given MLB team....be slightly choicey. Troy may well beat the everloving shit out of UNT, but I expect Troy's run defense to get at least busted up a bit...I think UNT has a better shot at the win than the odds I'm getting. So I'm happy.
 
for my own organization...

spreads: 75-54-2, 57.2% +48.96 units

Clemson -6.5 (+110) 2 units
Oregon St +11.5 (+101) 2 units
Wake Forest -10 (+103) 2 units
Nebraska -6 (+102) 2 units
UCF +17.5 (+104) 2 units
Aggie/Baylor O54 (-105)
Nothwestern +33.5 (-108) 2 units
BYU -8.5 (-105) 2 units
Notre Dame -14 (+103) 2 units

ML dogs: 30-53, 32.2% +13.66 units

UCLA +110
Louisiana Tech +337
Wyoming +204
MTSU +135
Miami +204
Indiana +260
New Mexico +224
Northern Illinois +840
Maryland +170
North Texas +340

I hope like hell this week goes better than last week...
 
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Red - I've been pondering Oregon State this week, but the injury status of Bernard is troublesome and it looks like the Beavers are also knicked up on the OL (C Devan and RT Linehan). My concern here is I think the lack of a running game would pretty much kill OSU's chances and if Bernard can't go that is a real possibility. I don't like the thoughts of all the offensive burden falling on Moore. Meanwhile, USC appears to be getting healthier at the WR position and Washington seems to be getting better at RB. See that you fired on this one already and was just wondering if that was based on your thinking that OSU's defense is good enough to keep them hanging around in this one?
 
Like Clemson, Wake, Nebraska and BYU. Do not like the Miami play at all as they are horrible and have absolutely nothing to play for at this point. I'm a huge fan (go to a couple games/year) and have followed this program since I can remember. I haven't felt this bad about Miami football since the 94-95' era.

GL bro!:cheers:
 
Fondy, 3xChamps, thanks guys. Let's win some this week.

timh, I've been winning by fading USC. The trojans haven't beaten all hell out of anyone since Arkansas. Your concerns are valid, and I don't have a refuting position. Recently, the Beavers have been playing a bit better...and this is after I thought they had given up. ...not that Arizona's good, but Washington even without Stanbeck is pretty damned good. USC may push their shit like Cal, but I doubt it. I don't really expect the beavers to win (no ML play...), but I do expect them to let OSU keep it close. USC's last 3 games, they scored no more than 28 and they allowed over 20. Both Washington and AZ St had shots to tie or win the game in the closing seconds of the fourth...if USC can't score more than 4 TDs on the Sun Devil's defense, then I'm not all that concerned about them scoring a prohibitive number on the beavers.

....or I could be completely wrong. =)

Mags, I'm getting 2:1 on Miami going against a Tech team on the way down. At least that's my perception. I think Ball is/was still hurt during the Clemson game, and with a dozen players coming off suspension this week, the Thugs should have quite the Us Against The World mentality.

From a straight up talent standpoint, I think Miami is AT LEAST as good as GT, if not better. Miami's Line has been hard to run on for everyone except Louisville. The secondary is?/was absolutely sick, and if Reggie isn't setting his feet properly, I suggest at least 2 picks are extremely likely.

Do I think Miami should be favored, well, no. But I like my 2:1 odds.

Thanks for your comments, and GL this week.
 
Notre Dame -14 (+103) 2 units

Sold up.

Much has been made of Navy's ability in the last few days, but without QB Hampton, the triple option offense won't be nearly as effective. A good fullback is necessary, but the decision-maker is the QB, and while Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada may be decent, he may even eventually be quite good, in fact, but he did not show well for himself against Rutgers at all. Now, sure, Rutgers is much better than I gave em credit for....holding Pitt down like they did. But Kaheaku-Enhada managed a whopping 11 yards on 22 carries. The decision-making at the QB spot in the triple option is of utmost importance, and it's going to be a tough trial by fire. On top of the offensive issues, Navy's secondary should get picked apart by Quinn. Even the domers run game should perform tolerably...

Notre Dame will definitely beat Navy. With Hampton, Navy would have a decent chance, IMO, but without him, forget about it. I figure a ND win by 20-24.

GL this week folks.
 
I'm think i'm with you on ND here, Red.. I feel sorry for the backup Navy QB going into Saturday. You have to put in quite a bit of hard earned time running that type of offense to have any success with it, all about decision-making and timing. gl buddy
 
I put this in Seabass's thread, but I want to put it here too...

As shitty as miami has played, that team still has incredible talent and speed. Especially in the secondary, the defense is absolutely sick, and GT will have a tough time running on them. Only Louisville really plastered the U mightily.

GT has a problem I'm not seeing anyone talk about, and maybe it's my imagination, but I think Reggie Ball is hurt. He was hurt 2 games ago squeaking out a win against Maryland, and their bye week was supposedly going to let him heal.

But against Clemson, he didn't set his feet properly even once (even Mike Patrick noticed this, and he's a complete moron). After several plays, I saw him reach for what looked like a hammy... He threw for 12 of 25, 1TD and 1pick. If he passes like that again, I think the U has more than a fair shot at beating GT...and not just winning, but utterly pulverizing the Jackets.
Reggie also rushed 12 times for 8 whole yards. If Ball is the center of the Jacket offense, GT is buttfucked with a submarine this week.

As far as mindset is concerned, GT is on the way down. After beating UVA (surprise!), they screamed out to a huge lead on VPI, only to give it back up to damn near respectable. In the first quarter, GT was up 21-0 off of some questionable VPI play. For the rest of the game, VPI outplayed GT intercepting Ball twice, and outscoring em 27-17. If not for coughing up 4 fumbles, VPI would have likely won that game.

So GJ GT, but winning the TO battle doesn't make you the better team....it just means you fucked up LESS that day.

Okay, so after this BIG WIN, GT goes to Maryland and squeaks out a win against the terps. I like this quote: "The No. 18 Yellow Jackets rallied with 13 fourth-quarter points behind Tashard Choice and Reggie Ball, then survived a last-minute scare to beat Maryland 27-23 on Saturday."

Reggie threw for 13-25 for 161, 1 sack, and a TD. He also ran 15 times for 84 yards. and GT needed some last minute heroics to win this game by 4.

Calvin Johnson, btw, IS the jackets passing offense. Shut him down, and the jackets (reggie) fall in on themselves. If anyone has the individual players to shut down CJ, it's Miami. If playing fairly doesn't work, fear not, they'll hit him with a helmet.

GT then gets a week off to recouperate. And they should show up and at LEAST compete with Clemson, but alas, the Jackets got their asses handed to them. That supposedly great defense gave up 338 yards RUSHING. 443 yards Total...much of which given up to an injured Davis.

On the offensive side, Ball's performance was, well, offensive....scoring only 7 points off of 238 yards evenly split between rush and pass. Georgia Tech was even +1 in turnovers, but Reggie couldn't get a damn thing done.

And I think he's injured.

I'm on Miami ML +204
 
Whelp....lost the fuck out of that one...LOL.

Congrats to those of you who had VPI, and congrats to VPI. They really pulled it back together. And Proctor couldn't get his head out of his ass all night. What's up with that?
 
Tulsa -7 2H -122 2 units
Tulsa -14 2H +295 1 unit

If anyone else has seen UTEP recently, you know what incredible meltdowns they've been having every game in the second half. I'm hoping to recoup a bit tonight...

FUCK YOU MINERS.
 
redbearde--- you have alot of stuff i like this week, hope that bodes well for both. My thread will be up late Friday nite but my ML plays are Oregon State ( trojans have really been living on the edge) , Miami F, La Tech, MTSU, and New Mex. Don't like NTSU but what do I know? Certainly not as muchas Matador and Garfather.
GL to you.:cheers:
 
NTSU..............is that north texas?

if so, it's all value. at over 3:1, this may be one of my better bets this week. Very much a tossup in my mind. Go mean green!
 
Again, for my own organization...

spreads: 75-54-2, 57.2% +48.96 units

Clemson -6.5 (+110) 2 units - L
Tulsa -7 2H -122 2 units - W
Tulsa -14 2H +295 1 unit - W
Oregon St +11.5 (+101) 2 units
Wake Forest -10 (+103) 2 units
Nebraska -6 (+102) 2 units
UCF +17.5 (+104) 2 units
Aggie/Baylor O54 (-105)
Nothwestern +33.5 (-108) 2 units
BYU -8.5 (-105) 2 units
Notre Dame -14 (+103) 2 units

ML dogs: 30-53, 32.2% +13.66 units

UCLA +110
Wash St +118
Louisiana Tech +337
Wyoming +204
MTSU +135
Miami +204
Indiana +260
New Mexico +224
Northern Illinois +840
Maryland +170
North Texas +340
 
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Clemson -6.5 (+110) 2 units - L
Tulsa -7 2H -122 2 units - W
Tulsa -14 2H +295 1 unit - W
Oregon St +11.5 (+101) 2 units - W
Wake Forest -10 (+103) 2 units - L
Nebraska -6 (+102) 2 units - L
UCF +17.5 (+104) 2 units - L
Aggie/Baylor O54 (-105) - L
Nothwestern +33.5 (-108) 2 units - W
BYU -8.5 (-105) 2 units - W
Notre Dame -14 (+103) 2 units - W

Week 9: 6-5 +3.98 units
overall: 81-59-2, 57.0% +52.94 units

UCLA +110 - L
Wash St +118 - W
Louisiana Tech +337 - L
Wyoming +204 - L
MTSU +135 - W
Miami +204 - L
Indiana +260 - W
New Mexico +224 - W
Northern Illinois +840 - L
Maryland +170 - W
North Texas +340 - L

Week 9: 5-6, +3.07 units
Overall: 35-59, 37.2% +16.73 units

Glad I hedged out of UCLA for the small middle. Wifey helped with that decision.

:bow: Wifey.

It was a much better week for ML dogs. And I missed a few. However, 5-6 is 45%, and I am not complaining EVER about getting 5 of 11 ML dogs. As far as spreads, well, I feel fairly screwed by several of my plays (notably nebraska & UCF), but some opportunistic fading in the second half of UTEP and selling for positive juice helped it be a positive week. As I've said before, I bet significantly more on ML dogs than spreads...so +3 units in ML dogs is.... well......it's a lot.

Anyway, it was a good week, and I'm back on track for my season goals.......and this with the worst fucking week EVER last week.

hope you guys won some too.
 
CrazyTrain, that's very kind, but most folks here are better than me.

I'm just glad to be making money.

hope you got some too, today.
 
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