Week 9 B16 Thread...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Welcome all, we are nearing the home stretch here. The season has certainly flown by quite fast in my estimation. Sorry for the late start to this, just been in the weeds for the last few days. Vacation officially starts as I begin this. Vegas time, lets goooo..

First, some house-keeping...

Big Ten will NOT be changing divisions next season. There was speculation that the realignment would start one year before the Cali teams showed up. Apparently, that was shelved. The 2024 season will see dramatic changes. No clue how they align the teams to be honest...

I wrote a lot about the 'tunnel tussle' last week. Good to see Jimmy back to his old self...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584578082337615872


Alright, pretty boring week in conference last week with multiple byes. I am going to keep this short n simple...

Ohio State rolled Iowa to no one's surprise. That is one of the most misleading scores you will ever see though. This has been noted around the forum multiple times, but Iowa gift-wrapped many scores and short fields. By the time the score was 40-10, Ohio State had 208 yards of offense (in the 3rd quarter). For capping purposes, we all have been curious how Ohio State would fair against a top defense. The results were interesting. My biggest question though; why was Stroud still in (and passing) in the 4th quarter? They really are trying to run his numbers up. This was silly and frankly could have led to injury. Poor judgement by the staff there.

That back-up QB wasn't it for the Gophers. Their season has slipped away unfortunately. Big win for PSU, this being the sandwich between OSU and UM.

I know that A LOT of Indiana RSW under ticket holders are quite happy with Rutgers right now. The Hoosiers started strong with 14 in the first, but that was it. Rutgers with 50 freaking rushes at 3.8 a pop. Big time of possession difference here. The Scarlet Knights looking to go bowling perhaps??

Poor Purdue. I saw this game at times but couldn't get a good feel for it. I got to say, that run of close/big games for Purdue seemed to catch up to them a bit. AOC needs to trim the picks down. Purdue outgained the Badgers but spotting 21 points to an offensively challenged is no way to go through life.

Saw none of Maryland and NW. As I said in recent threads, these are the types of games the Terps have to win.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Five games again this week, as this should conclude bye weeks I believe... I'll be involved all week in the thread, so shorter than normal to start (exhausted too)...

The headliner will be the noon game on Fox. Ohio State comes in favored by 16 or so right now. This opened at a pretty soft number it looks like. Funny tidbit I may have already said. During PSU-UM week, someone quoted Franklin saying they are building their program to beat Ohio State. I found this interesting. Michigan seemed to try that after the 2018 season and the results were interesting. They reverted back, as they should have and the last nearly 2 years have been fantastic. Watching our game vs PSU, it was apparent that they are a bit small on the lines (DL especially). The talent at corner cannot be denied, but they still give up passing yards. Weird team to be honest. The Iowa defense is much better than the Nittany Lions. Ohio State SHOULD score here. With that being said, this is the first offense with a pulse they have played maybe all year. Live betting this one.

Rutgers off a big win, and they have a primetime game vs Michigan up next. Minnesota needs a win badly. Need some health updates here. we know Rutgers will make this game as ugly as possible. The 41-point total is appropriate. My initial thought is the 1Q under fwiw. Not too many more thoughts for now.

Nebraska has played pretty okay since the Oklahoma drubbing. They should have won the Purdue game. They get a home visit from the West-leading Illinois Fighting Illini. Burt and company are playing solid, tough football and winning games. You cannot ask for more, as a fan. Contrasting styles here. This feel likes a game that Nebraska is pesky as can be. That is a gut feeling to be honest. Now, can they do this for 4 quarters? We'll see. We'll see what @cubsker has to say about this one. I'll likely be watching at least the 1h with him in LV this weekend. Maybe I'll bust out my old Illini tank-top I wore in the 2005 NCAA Final Four hehe.

Hide your children, Northwestern and Iowa are playing football. Good lord. I am not capping or talking about this shitfest...

Ticket prices (shoutout @HUNT )

Minneapolis 21 bucks
Iowa City 25 buckaroos
Lincoln 27 dollars
Happy Valley 71 schrute bucks
Ann Arbor 193 good gracious

So, that should wrap things up for this week, more to come as we go!

Oh, that game...

Tell ya what, I would like to give this a better analysis. So, I will do as much tomorrow evening after my round of golf.

There is A LOT at stake here, a lot, which may seem odd for a 21.5 current spread... more to come tomorrow...
 
Agree on Jim.....he really had stopped making those types of comments after taking some beatings.

purdue felt like they didn't show up mentally or emotionally for that game ..........purdue i know in dog role has been gritty and nails. Even last year in a 30-13 loss to wisconsin it was a fight until wisconsin pulled away in the 2nd half.

as we've gotten a further look at minnesota and washington I think michigan should be able to name the score on saturday .....improvements by sparty against wisky but thats the only sign of life all year
 
Wisky averaged 5.15 yds after contact in the running game...

Wisky scheme gets AOC again on 2 of those underneath routes with Torchio jumping it both times and AOC didn't see him.

Pretty much all she wrote if you can't tackle and score 14 points for the other team....
 
Purdue at least kept playing and made it respectable.

Henrich out at MLB for the season. Reimer who is probably their best player on D at the other MLB spot missed the Purdue game. I think he should play vs Illy, but if not, there's just no way you would want Nebraska there. Backups....no Bueno.

Nebraska continuing to try to find an OL combo that works. If you have 10 turds, you can't line them up in a visually pleasing way, so yeah, that's my analogy there. They did play a little better in the 2h, giving CT some time to find Trey.

If I get Reimer and 7.5, I think I'll bet em.
 
Ohio State is awesome ATS in away games. These lines are less than their home games and because they have been such an outstanding team in a long history they accomplish their line to a record of:

38-19 ATS before week12 with higher lines than <=-9. These high lines mean that either their talent is so superior or the team they play cant compete (and or a combination of both) They are just too talented and balanced on both sides of the ball.

I am not saying they are a sure thing this week but the data supports them again this week.
 
mickey says he feels good about reimer. kind of want a vegas ticket on this game. hopefully, the 7.5 holds for a couple more days.
 
The Big Ten has lot of cool rivalry trophies, I think Paul Bunyan is the best when the players on the field are hoisting it up and put their helmets on him.
 
cubsker said:
Purdue at least kept playing and made it respectable.

Henrich out at MLB for the season. Reimer who is probably their best player on D at the other MLB spot missed the Purdue game. I think he should play vs Illy, but if not, there's just no way you would want Nebraska there. Backups....no Bueno.

Nebraska continuing to try to find an OL combo that works. If you have 10 turds, you can't line them up in a visually pleasing way, so yeah, that's my analogy there. They did play a little better in the 2h, giving CT some time to find Trey.

If I get Reimer and 7.5, I think I'll bet em.
Click to expand...
I’ll be on it with ya that’s for sure. Worried about Ill running game obviously but think this number is asking way too much of a team just looking for a way too survive a plan B of still controlling their destiny in the west
 
Really like Nebraska, love the way they haven't quit. Still not a believer in this Illini squad and this is a dangerous game.

Penn State team total a look for me myself. If Iowa had any kind of offense they could have put up quite a bunch.
 
I'm curious why you think so on the Ohio St defense. Their DL just overwhelmed Iowa OL every single play. I've said the Iowa OL is the only competitor for the Nebraska OL when it comes to sucking, but that's certainly not a mark against Ohio St.
 
Quick summary of this series since 2015...


2015: Pretty much two evenly matched-up teams. This game could have gone either way. Michigan obviously had the win, and simply dropped the ball

2016: Michigan trashed them in East Lansing. Sparty scored a few late to be "defeated with dignity" but otherwise this was a breeze.

2017: Monsoon game. Michigan State was a 'solid' team this season. Michigan was 'okay'. On this game, they were starting ole boy O'Korn. That isn't good for anyone. I'll never forget the fact this game saw no in-game delays despite lighting nearby. Rules were broken in my opinion. No doubt the rain helped MSU out in the 1st half (some nice plays they had designed to be honest, accentuated by the rain). This was one of the oddest games I've seen.

2018: The DPJ Paul Bunyan game. Sparty was fined and reprimanded after the game for their walk-through shit, as was Devin Bush. Shea did enough to get the win here. Lewerke was awful, Sparty had no offense to counter a strong UM defense.

2019: This was a rout after the first quarter. Michigan sent out Dantoni with a loss. Easily Shea Patterson's best college game.

2020: Covid no fans game. This was just odd. Both teams were awful. Michigan State hit some huge bombs to a guy I cannot even remember.

2021: Two damn good teams. Cade Mac had more yards by himself than the ENTIRE Spartan team. This was a horribly officiated game. That is not sour grapes, and anyone neutral knows that. The atrocity right before halftime took away 7 points (net 4) from Michigan. The fact UM went somewhere between 0-6 to 0-9 on replays was wild. Still, up 30-14 they needed to close this one out. Walker was great. The biggest part of this game was 'tempo'. Michigan State taught Mike MacDonald a lesson or two, as UM was caught out of position several times. Great game for the rivalry.

So, here we are everyone...Let's talk 2022...

Michigan State has not been good so far this year. Why is that?

-The defense is even worse than last year. This is even more true in the secondary. The run defense isn't bad, but when facing a deficit, they start to give up a bit.
-Thorne is a very average QB. He can make some spectacular plays, and some bone-headed ones. His skill position players are simply not as good this year.
-No KW this year. Tucker struck gold last year with Mr. Walker. That is something that is pretty rare in the portal market, to have a top 5 Heisman candidate (that is not a QB).
-Injuries. This isn't an excuse anymore. This program is always injury-prone. Now, this made sense towards the end of the Dantoni era as they had to cut down the 'vitamins' a bit as ESPN was sniffing around campus. Now? I dunno.


We are several recruiting classes and two full years of portal guys into Tuckers reign. These are his guys. Now, the cupboard was bare, but he took this approach to the squad. No excuses in all reality.

All that being said, they won a huge, huge game last week. That gives them a chance at bowl eligibility with an upset or two down the stretch.


Michigan is undefeated and just steamrolled a top 10 (at the time) opponent. So, why have they been good?

-Improvement each week.
-OL is back to the Joe Moore award winning style like last year. They were shaky for a few weeks but are great now.
-Corum stepped to the next level.
-JJ brings added dimensions. He still needs to cut out a few plays a game that could be disastrous. He is growing though.
-The secondary has been very good. The DL has gotten better the last few weeks.
-Minter is settling into his role, and has become a heckuva 2nd half coach
-Great special teams


So, can we see an upset here?

Most likely not. I need to find this post from one of the recruiting sites, but basically, bad MSU teams simply do not beat UM (discount 2020 covid weird year). This goes back decades. Pretty interesting read. I do expect that Michigan State has some trick plays ready to roll. I will not be surprised if they get an early score, and people get nervous. Overall though, I cannot see them sustaining drives on a consistent basis. They will need some sort of 10-150 game from Reed with some scores to make this a 4th quarter game.

Michigan will run, run and do a few interesting things on offense. They have circled this game since the bus ride back last year. They spent a lot of time on this game all year (sound familiar?). They are focused and off a bye (as is Michigan State).

I'll get more into the betting aspect as we go through the week.

My predicted score a few days ago was 45-17...I'll stick with for now. I do not think they get past 17 to be honest.

Should be fun UTL in Ann Arbor this Saturday Night...
 
I thought JJ's legs would be used more. Just not needed yet? Would think they would get him out of the pocket some. Instead, it looks just like last year's offense.
 
cubsker said:
I'm curious why you think so on the Ohio St defense. Their DL just overwhelmed Iowa OL every single play. I've said the Iowa OL is the only competitor for the Nebraska OL when it comes to sucking, but that's certainly not a mark against Ohio St.
Click to expand...


It was more about where Iowa had the ball on some of those turnovers and couldn't do shit with it, or turned it right back over. Padilla and Petras have to be the worst 1-2 combo in the history of CFB. Their body language, fundamentals, pocket awareness, accuracy are all F's in my book. Plus throw a double F in there with playcalling. Laporta is the only weapon Iowa has and they can't even get him involved at all really. Yes, you're right OSU was in Iowas backfield all day for the most part, it's easier though when you have a team with predictable playcalling and two statues at QB. Blitz the shit out of them.

I think PSU would convert those turnovers into points .....I know it's completely different set of games and circumstances, just think PSU can score, they definitely are more competent than Iowa on offense despite Clifford. Home Clifford is much better than road Clifford. We know Ohio State is going to score a bunch, so PSU should get their opportunities. Will be on anything under 23. No idea what it is now.
 
cubsker said:
I thought JJ's legs would be used more. Just not needed yet? Would think they would get him out of the pocket some. Instead, it looks just like last year's offense.
Click to expand...

They are afraid of him getting hurt with no backup at the moment. But, you gotta let the kid play, let him run, let him do his thing.....just not how Harbaugh rolls and never will imo.
 
cubsker said:
I thought JJ's legs would be used more. Just not needed yet? Would think they would get him out of the pocket some. Instead, it looks just like last year's offense.
Click to expand...
To be honest, the fear of injury has been real.

I believe that Cade is back this week. That may enable them to unleash JJ a lot more.

You are right in the fact that this looks similar. JJ has turned into an unlikely game manager.

I think you'll see a bit more passing/running from him as the games get important.
 
B.A.R. said:
Quick summary of this series since 2015...


2015: Pretty much two evenly matched-up teams. This game could have gone either way. Michigan obviously had the win, and simply dropped the ball

2016: Michigan trashed them in East Lansing. Sparty scored a few late to be "defeated with dignity" but otherwise this was a breeze.

2017: Monsoon game. Michigan State was a 'solid' team this season. Michigan was 'okay'. On this game, they were starting ole boy O'Korn. That isn't good for anyone. I'll never forget the fact this game saw no in-game delays despite lighting nearby. Rules were broken in my opinion. No doubt the rain helped MSU out in the 1st half (some nice plays they had designed to be honest, accentuated by the rain). This was one of the oddest games I've seen.

2018: The DPJ Paul Bunyan game. Sparty was fined and reprimanded after the game for their walk-through shit, as was Devin Bush. Shea did enough to get the win here. Lewerke was awful, Sparty had no offense to counter a strong UM defense.

2019: This was a rout after the first quarter. Michigan sent out Dantoni with a loss. Easily Shea Patterson's best college game.

2020: Covid no fans game. This was just odd. Both teams were awful. Michigan State hit some huge bombs to a guy I cannot even remember.

2021: Two damn good teams. Cade Mac had more yards by himself than the ENTIRE Spartan team. This was a horribly officiated game. That is not sour grapes, and anyone neutral knows that. The atrocity right before halftime took away 7 points (net 4) from Michigan. The fact UM went somewhere between 0-6 to 0-9 on replays was wild. Still, up 30-14 they needed to close this one out. Walker was great. The biggest part of this game was 'tempo'. Michigan State taught Mike MacDonald a lesson or two, as UM was caught out of position several times. Great game for the rivalry.

So, here we are everyone...Let's talk 2022...

Michigan State has not been good so far this year. Why is that?

-The defense is even worse than last year. This is even more true in the secondary. The run defense isn't bad, but when facing a deficit, they start to give up a bit.
-Thorne is a very average QB. He can make some spectacular plays, and some bone-headed ones. His skill position players are simply not as good this year.
-No KW this year. Tucker struck gold last year with Mr. Walker. That is something that is pretty rare in the portal market, to have a top 5 Heisman candidate (that is not a QB).
-Injuries. This isn't an excuse anymore. This program is always injury-prone. Now, this made sense towards the end of the Dantoni era as they had to cut down the 'vitamins' a bit as ESPN was sniffing around campus. Now? I dunno.


We are several recruiting classes and two full years of portal guys into Tuckers reign. These are his guys. Now, the cupboard was bare, but he took this approach to the squad. No excuses in all reality.

All that being said, they won a huge, huge game last week. That gives them a chance at bowl eligibility with an upset or two down the stretch.


Michigan is undefeated and just steamrolled a top 10 (at the time) opponent. So, why have they been good?

-Improvement each week.
-OL is back to the Joe Moore award winning style like last year. They were shaky for a few weeks but are great now.
-Corum stepped to the next level.
-JJ brings added dimensions. He still needs to cut out a few plays a game that could be disastrous. He is growing though.
-The secondary has been very good. The DL has gotten better the last few weeks.
-Minter is settling into his role, and has become a heckuva 2nd half coach
-Great special teams


So, can we see an upset here?

Most likely not. I need to find this post from one of the recruiting sites, but basically, bad MSU teams simply do not beat UM (discount 2020 covid weird year). This goes back decades. Pretty interesting read. I do expect that Michigan State has some trick plays ready to roll. I will not be surprised if they get an early score, and people get nervous. Overall though, I cannot see them sustaining drives on a consistent basis. They will need some sort of 10-150 game from Reed with some scores to make this a 4th quarter game.

Michigan will run, run and do a few interesting things on offense. They have circled this game since the bus ride back last year. They spent a lot of time on this game all year (sound familiar?). They are focused and off a bye (as is Michigan State).

I'll get more into the betting aspect as we go through the week.

My predicted score a few days ago was 45-17...I'll stick with for now. I do not think they get past 17 to be honest.

Should be fun UTL in Ann Arbor this Saturday Night...
Click to expand...


I'm leery of doing blowout scores for Michigan State/Michigan.....been burned too many times, but this one is all set up for a prime time blowout. In this one, I expect Michigan to come out in full attack mode in first half ....you do not want to go in half in a close game with your rival. No KW3 in this one either.
 
HUNT said:
It was more about where Iowa had the ball on some of those turnovers and couldn't do shit with it, or turned it right back over. Padilla and Petras have to be the worst 1-2 combo in the history of CFB. Their body language, fundamentals, pocket awareness, accuracy are all F's in my book. Plus throw a double F in there with playcalling. Laporta is the only weapon Iowa has and they can't even get him involved at all really. Yes, you're right OSU was in Iowas backfield all day for the most part, it's easier though when you have a team with predictable playcalling and two statues at QB. Blitz the shit out of them.

I think PSU would convert those turnovers into points .....I know it's completely different set of games and circumstances, just think PSU can score, they definitely are more competent than Iowa on offense despite Clifford. Home Clifford is much better than road Clifford. We know Ohio State is going to score a bunch, so PSU should get their opportunities. Will be on anything under 23. No idea what it is now.
Click to expand...

I see what you're saying, thx.
 
HUNT said:
I'm leery of doing blowout scores for Michigan State/Michigan.....been burned too many times, but this one is all set up for a prime time blowout. In this one, I expect Michigan to come out in full attack mode in first half ....you do not want to go in half in a close game with your rival. No KW3 in this one either.
Click to expand...
I don't see any advantages for MSU here on either side of the ball. Maybe they can script some stuff early but don't really see an avenue to more than 17 points...their defense hasn't come close to stopping any offenses with a pulse and harbaugh obviously likes to run it up
 
survive&advance said:
I don't see any advantages for MSU here on either side of the ball. Maybe they can script some stuff early but don't really see an avenue to more than 17 points...their defense hasn't come close to stopping any offenses with a pulse and harbaugh obviously likes to run it up
Click to expand...


True. Just leery because this is Michigan states super bowl and they are fully healthy. At night on Halloween weekend none the less.
 
B.A.R. said:
Quick summary of this series since 2015...


2015: Pretty much two evenly matched-up teams. This game could have gone either way. Michigan obviously had the win, and simply dropped the ball

2016: Michigan trashed them in East Lansing. Sparty scored a few late to be "defeated with dignity" but otherwise this was a breeze.

2017: Monsoon game. Michigan State was a 'solid' team this season. Michigan was 'okay'. On this game, they were starting ole boy O'Korn. That isn't good for anyone. I'll never forget the fact this game saw no in-game delays despite lighting nearby. Rules were broken in my opinion. No doubt the rain helped MSU out in the 1st half (some nice plays they had designed to be honest, accentuated by the rain). This was one of the oddest games I've seen.

2018: The DPJ Paul Bunyan game. Sparty was fined and reprimanded after the game for their walk-through shit, as was Devin Bush. Shea did enough to get the win here. Lewerke was awful, Sparty had no offense to counter a strong UM defense.

2019: This was a rout after the first quarter. Michigan sent out Dantoni with a loss. Easily Shea Patterson's best college game.

2020: Covid no fans game. This was just odd. Both teams were awful. Michigan State hit some huge bombs to a guy I cannot even remember.

2021: Two damn good teams. Cade Mac had more yards by himself than the ENTIRE Spartan team. This was a horribly officiated game. That is not sour grapes, and anyone neutral knows that. The atrocity right before halftime took away 7 points (net 4) from Michigan. The fact UM went somewhere between 0-6 to 0-9 on replays was wild. Still, up 30-14 they needed to close this one out. Walker was great. The biggest part of this game was 'tempo'. Michigan State taught Mike MacDonald a lesson or two, as UM was caught out of position several times. Great game for the rivalry.

So, here we are everyone...Let's talk 2022...

Michigan State has not been good so far this year. Why is that?

-The defense is even worse than last year. This is even more true in the secondary. The run defense isn't bad, but when facing a deficit, they start to give up a bit.
-Thorne is a very average QB. He can make some spectacular plays, and some bone-headed ones. His skill position players are simply not as good this year.
-No KW this year. Tucker struck gold last year with Mr. Walker. That is something that is pretty rare in the portal market, to have a top 5 Heisman candidate (that is not a QB).
-Injuries. This isn't an excuse anymore. This program is always injury-prone. Now, this made sense towards the end of the Dantoni era as they had to cut down the 'vitamins' a bit as ESPN was sniffing around campus. Now? I dunno.


We are several recruiting classes and two full years of portal guys into Tuckers reign. These are his guys. Now, the cupboard was bare, but he took this approach to the squad. No excuses in all reality.

All that being said, they won a huge, huge game last week. That gives them a chance at bowl eligibility with an upset or two down the stretch.


Michigan is undefeated and just steamrolled a top 10 (at the time) opponent. So, why have they been good?

-Improvement each week.
-OL is back to the Joe Moore award winning style like last year. They were shaky for a few weeks but are great now.
-Corum stepped to the next level.
-JJ brings added dimensions. He still needs to cut out a few plays a game that could be disastrous. He is growing though.
-The secondary has been very good. The DL has gotten better the last few weeks.
-Minter is settling into his role, and has become a heckuva 2nd half coach
-Great special teams


So, can we see an upset here?

Most likely not. I need to find this post from one of the recruiting sites, but basically, bad MSU teams simply do not beat UM (discount 2020 covid weird year). This goes back decades. Pretty interesting read. I do expect that Michigan State has some trick plays ready to roll. I will not be surprised if they get an early score, and people get nervous. Overall though, I cannot see them sustaining drives on a consistent basis. They will need some sort of 10-150 game from Reed with some scores to make this a 4th quarter game.

Michigan will run, run and do a few interesting things on offense. They have circled this game since the bus ride back last year. They spent a lot of time on this game all year (sound familiar?). They are focused and off a bye (as is Michigan State).

I'll get more into the betting aspect as we go through the week.

My predicted score a few days ago was 45-17...I'll stick with for now. I do not think they get past 17 to be honest.

Should be fun UTL in Ann Arbor this Saturday Night...
Click to expand...


I know what post you're referring to haha. I think a good MSU argument would heavily emphasize the last game...if Sparty turned a corner, then it's no longer a "bad MSU team" and maybe Sparty turned a corner because it improved a lot health-wise...Thorne and Reed no longer dinged up, Slade and Henderson back. Those are crucially important guys. A win over Wisconsin looks good since the coaching change and the most recent win over Purdue (generous score line for Purdue)
 
Honestly don't have anything else to tell on the Bunyan game.

Will be a long day waiting around for both teams.

UM practice has been focused per reports, same level as PSU week.
 
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