Week 9 (10/25-10/27) CFB Picks and News

[RJ Esq]

KYLE JACKSON TO START FOR FLORIDA

Vegas, move the line! The ever-flammable Kyle Jackson is starting at free safety for Florida this weekend against Georgia in place of freshman Major Wright, out following hand surgery.

 

[RJ Esq]

Vol receivers expected to play vs. S.C.

Posted: Thursday October 25, 2007 1:26PM; Updated: Thursday October 25, 2007 1:26PM

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- Tennessee wide receivers Josh Briscoe and Lucas Taylor are expected to play Saturday against No. 15 South Carolina.
Briscoe was sidelined with a concussion after hitting his head on the turf at Alabama last week. Doctors cleared him to play on Wednesday.
Taylor suffered a turf toe injury two weeks ago against Mississippi State and aggravated the injury against Alabama. Coaches have limited his practice time this week to give him more time to heal.
Fulmer said he's counting on the pair to be available against the Gamecocks, though they still may be limited in their playing time.
"Lucas and Briscoe will play unless something happens between now and Saturday," Fulmer said. "(Briscoe) did really well. He did everything today and of course there wasn't any contact. He looks really good and I was concerned about that because they said Sunday and Monday it was a pretty significant concussion, but he really toughened up."
Briscoe said he doesn't remember the last few plays he attempted after hitting his head.
"As soon as I hit the ground I got up and stumbled to the sideline. I came back in and played about four more plays," he said. "I still don't remember those four plays. Everyone knows I know where to line up, and I was out there looking confused, not knowing where to line up. It kind of gave them the key that I wasn't fully there."

 

[RJ Esq]

Wise-Ass Recovers Bag of Notre Dame Memorabilia After it Falls From Airplane

Posted Oct 25th 2007 2:09PM by Brian Stouffer
Filed under: Notre Dame Football, USC Football, Pac 10, NCAA FB Fans, NCAA FB Media Watch

I'm still not sure if this is a real story or just a goofy joke with a long buildup. Since it was originally published by the Chicago Tribune and not, you know, The Onion, I have to assume that it isn't completely made-up, but you can color me skeptical.

Anyway, this week's story is about a Notre Dame fan from Florida who took a trip to South Bend this weekend to watch the Irish get trounced by Southern Cal. To console himself, he swung by the bookstore and dropped a hefty amount of money on Notre Dame memorabilia: some ND sweaters, a stuffed leprechaun, a vintage jacket and some monogrammed cups and trinkets. He packed up his treasures in a bag and headed to Chicago to fly home from Midway Airport.

That's when things get sticky. Apparently, a malfunction in the baggage compartment caused the bag to tumble out of the in-flight airplane and drop several hundred feet into a neighborhood just south of the airport. Luckily enough, somebody found the bag and returned it to its owner more or less unscathed.

The punchline? The Tribune asked the owner if he was concerned that somebody might have been hurt from the falling luggage. His reply? Wait for it...

"It's Notre Dame," he declared. "It can't hurt anybody because it can't hit anybody."​

 

[RJ Esq]

BOSTON COLLEGE AT VIRGINIA TECH: MAO!

Mao!
Boston College takes their first turn in the Vietnamese boathouse tonight, giving us another opportunity to photoshop a coach playing Russian Roulette and another shot at telling you a hastily written list of reasons why you want to watch the Eagles go into Virginia Tech tonight in yet another quality Thursday night college football matchup that will, of course, end in tears.
10. If BC wins, they hate America, since Virginia Tech is America’s Team this year. The entire student body of UVA has also been put on the terrorist watch list as a result of this rule. Good luck flying to Breckenridge this year without a full cavity search, fucknuts!
Also, loud rooting may merit investigation. You have been warned.
9. To see Chris Fowler rock out to Enter Sandman. We’re half-joking–if they get a booth shot of Fowler during Virginia Tech’s entrance, you’ll see diehard Metallica fan Fowler bobbing his head in the booth.
And for an instant, you’ll catch the visage of a 14 year old, acne-stricken little Chris in his room, doing pushups and calling his friend on the phone for the fourth time that day saying, “Have you listened to the bass part on Battery? I mean, REALLY LISTENED? It’s like Satan got jealous and killed Cliff just to put him in his band in hell.”
8. Enter Sandman. Fowler won’t be alone. When we’re terminally ill, we’ll chose to die in whatever state will allow us to be put in a four-poster bed and killed by massive impact from a semi crashing into us at top speed. If we can’t have the heavy metal death of our choice, this isn’t America.

<object height="355" width="425">

<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5h1EW5z1wdc&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="355" width="425"></object></p> 7. Jenkins. Beamer derives his power from him, like Krang riding around in his brain box on his mechanical body. Also control announcers minds, who remind you of how cool it is that Beamerball blocks punts, blocks field goals, blocks sunlight, knocks the keys out of old ladies’ hands in supermarket parking lots, blah blah bla-ad infinitum.
6. Virginia Tech cornerback Victor “Macho” Harris. If a defense would let a cornerback be called “Macho,” he must possess Steve Smith-like abilities to turn larger men into quivering smears of petroleum jelly in film room brawls. Or perhaps, like us, just likes the word from a childhood spent listening to Disney Disco’s beguiling “Macho Duck.” It’s awesome either way, but significantly less fifth-grade Yag if it involves beating the crap out of people.
5. Stop to see another wonder of Beamer Ball–a 112th ranked offense with Sean Glennon under center now that Tyrod Taylor, the freshman who took his job, has come up gimpy with an ankle injury. Thus Lee Corso’s unending lust for Virginia Tech football–little scoring equals not hard numbersmath for Lee.
4. Boston College’s Matt Ryan cannot be killed, or he would already be dead. In fact, he may be playing dead right now, avenging his murder on the gridiron and disappearing into the afterlife shortly after the season. Or in the tradition of great Boston College quarterbacks, fading into the CFL or the NFL’s second string–either way you’re practically invisible.

<object height="355" width="425">

<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mSskqthHbeE&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="355" width="425"></object></p> 3. Punt blocks! Did someone mention that Virginia Tech blocks punts! And field goals!
2. Sean Glennon’s teary second quarter breakdown on the sidelines following his eighth turnover will appear on the injury report as “Fractured Psyche–out 3-4 months.” This will allow Beamer to run the offense he’s always dreamed of running–the single wing–which will keep the game close enough to be called respectful. Jenkins will glow with approval.
1. Boston College Eagles will return triumphantly to seven fans not watching the World Series. Anyone doubting the propriety or stupidity of this oversight of a fine college football team will be labeled “a fahcking douchebag” by someone in a Wes Welker shirt who will then immediately follow up said slander with “How you like them apples, eh? Tom Brady bangs hot chicks!”

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

Aggy +3 (+108)

 

[RJ Esq]

UK's Burton, Dixon listed as doubtful

Posted: Thursday October 25, 2007 6:35PM; Updated: Thursday October 25, 2007 6:35PM

LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) -- Two of Kentucky's key offensive starters have been downgraded to doubtful for the Mississippi State game, coach Rich Brooks said Thursday.
Running back Tony Dixon and wide receiver Keenan Burton have both seen limited action in practice this week and likely won't play for the No. 14 Wildcats (6-2, 2-2 Southeastern Conference).
"It doesn't look good for Keenan and Dixon," Brooks said. "We won't make a decision probably until either Friday night or Saturday morning."
With the team banged up, Brooks said the onus will fall on some backups to perform well in expanded roles.
"Obviously we're dealing with health issues, but just like in past weeks, we need other people to step up with more playing time or more significant playing time," he said. "We need them to do a good job."
Freshman running back Derrick Locke and junior middle linebacker Braxton Kelley are two of the players who will see increased playing time Saturday. Brooks said that Locke will probably get the start at running back if Dixon is unable to play.
Kelley will start at middle linebacker in the absence of Micah Johnson, who underwent minor surgery earlier this week. Kelley and Johnson have been sharing snaps all season.
"Braxton is clearly an outstanding player," Brooks said. "He had a very good year last year an he's a very good player against the run, and he's improved his pass defense skills this year."

 

[RJ Esq]

Louisville DT Grady out for season

Posted: Thursday October 25, 2007 6:33PM; Updated: Thursday October 25, 2007 6:33PM

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- Louisville defensive tackle Adrian Grady will miss the rest of the season after tearing a pectoral mucle.
Grady, a junior, played in five games this season for the Cardinals, collecting 14 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.
Louisville (4-4, 1-2 Big East) hosts Pittsburgh (3-4, 1-1) on Saturday.

 

[RJ Esq]

THURSDAY NIGHT IS ALL RIGHT FOR FIGHTING: ACC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW
By SMQ
Posted on Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 04:38:43 PM EDT


Tonight is supposed to be about Boston College, and whether the Eagles are "for real" as the number two team in all the relevant polls, but I dunno, is Virginia Tech established enough to serve as a championship litmus test? It's not the Eagles, after all, about whom the following facts are all true:

• • The Hokie is the least productive in the ACC and 112th in the nation in total yards at 298 per game - Duke, N.C. State, North Carolina, even Florida State have all moved the ball more effectively. The offense has been held under 300 total yards in five of seven games, understandable against LSU (149) and maybe Clemson (219), but not so much against East Carolina (278), William & Mary (287) and North Carolina (241). • On top of that, Tech's quarterback options are a potentially gimpy true freshman completing barely 50 percent of his passes despite a conservative, dumpoff-heavy strategy, and an underwhelming junior who has already been benched once, during the Hokies' first "big game" of the year, an unmitigated disaster in which he completed two of his first ten passes and prompted this very blog to memoralize his career via the following video montage:
  
  <object height="170" width="225">
  
  <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Pys0tfhma_4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="200" width="245"></object> <object height="170" width="225">
  
  <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2VnjtZxwQdo" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="200" width="245"></object></p>
  <object height="250" width="350">
  
  <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1BsPyZ1Xj7k" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="250" width="350"></object></p> For the record, the Eagles have intercepted more passes than any other defense in the country.
  • In last year's game at Boston College, Glennon completed a lot of passes (23 of 34) but for virtually nothing (148 yards, or 6.4 yards per completion), failing to challenge the Eagles in any way downfield, throwing two interceptions and leading to such general frustration in the waning moments of 22-3 loss that cameras caught Hokie defenders going after one another on the bench.
  • Tech's offense is one-dimensional at best and more realistically no-dimensional - against decent defenses, anyway. A year after averaging a scant 3.2 per carry over an entire season, the Hokies are managing just 3.3 per carry through the first seven games, inflated to a degree by Tyrod Taylor's scrambling ability. Five teams - including East Carolina, William & Mary and Duke - have held VT under four yards per carry this season, and starter/all-ACC projection Branden Ore currently checks in at an astonishingly low 2.98. Boston College, for the record, leads the nation in run defense, both in yards per carry and, by a relatively huge margin, yards per game. This despite missing its best defensive linemen (huge, ineligible tackle B.J. Raji) and linebacker (injured/redshirting Brian Toal).

Naturally, Virginia Tech is the favorite. I can't fudge a single indicator from this year's Hokie team that might lead me to believe it's on Boston College's level - Tech struggled consistently against weak teams last year and has continued to wallow around for most of the afternoon with the likes of East Carolina (10-7 entering the fourth quarter) and Ohio U. (14-7 entering the fourth quarter) and North Carolina (UNC had the ball just into VT territory with a chance to tie in the final minute) even the one really impressive win was the once-in-a-blue-moon result of three defensive/special teams touchdowns in the first half at Clemson - Tech's offense, while admittedly not holding the ball for very long, averaged just under four yards per snap, generated one touchdown on its own accord and was outgained by almost 180 yards.
Then, with Virginia Tech, you have to question at this point whether that barrage against the Tigers really was that anomalous - the Hokies have been doing this for a long time. They've been playing top five teams after being left for dead for a long time, too, most memorably recovering from a 28-7 loss to 2-4 West Virginia in 2003 by trouncing undefeated, third-ranked Miami 31-7 in Blacksburg the very next week, and similarly wrecking Clemson's apparent locomotive to the ACC title on a Thursday night last year, just two weeks after the above-mentioned meltdown in Boston. Clemson came into that game hyping its sleek running back duo after it spectacularly ran for 300-plus on national television against Georgia Tech the previous week, and the Hokies stifled James Davis and C.J. Spiller for 71 yards between them, with a long run of thirteen. Both upsets were pinnacles of the classic "Beamer Ball" mentality, at night, in Blacksburg, and must be what Vegas has in mind when it tabs Tech a three-point favorite here.
The analogy to that game is not perfect with Matt Ryan, because Will Proctor's complete inability to challenge Virginia Tech's secondary made Clemson far more susceptible to falling apart than Boston College should be with its veteran, workmanlike running complementing Ryan tonight. But no one can look at the Hokie defense, especially in the nearly unparalleled secondary, and not imagine Ryan suffering through the longest night of his career at the center of the frenzied, shrieking madhouse we've come to expect from Lane Stadium.

The best player on the field, but only if he doesn't have to be.
- - -

All of that is fundamentally intangible, and relies heavily on Tech's ability to force mistakes and create big plays outside of its offense to keep the game competitive, because even the best case circumstance calls for a patient, grinding approach from the Hokie offense that will generate somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 points. Considering the track record of Boston College's defense and Tech's quarterbacks and offensive line, I don't think it's reasonable to expect even that - all available evidence from this season suggests Virginia Tech will try to run Ore, be completely stuffed, and either dump it off short of the sticks on third downs or fall prey to one of the most aggressive, turnover-hungry defenses in the country (I should note here that the Eagles' success with takeaways is not new: essentially the same personnel finished second in the nation in turnover margin under the same coordinator last year). The great variable in that equation is Tyrod Taylor: is he healthy, and if so, how much will his improvisational ability be able to keep the sticks moving, the crowd in the game, and Ryan off the field? As for Ryan, he'll be by far the best quarterback the Hokies have seen this year, and he doesn't have to put on some H*i*m*n worthy show to win here; he just has to avoid Glennon-like mistakes and take advantage of his opportunities when they come, because the Eagles will not be playing catch-up unless they are careless with the ball or with their fundamental blocking/coverage on special teams, a la Clemson. Virginia Tech's offense is too talented to be quite as incompetent as the horriffic numbers suggest, but still simply not enough of a threat to pull away from anyone on its own.
So, despite the dubious recent history of highly-ranked teams facing wounded Hokies, I think there is no way to avoid picking Boston College to win tonight. That said, I will have to be convinced Boston College has the offensive line to protect Ryan and open the running game consistently enough to imagine the Eagles running the table over another half dozen games against good competition. Virginia Tech is pretty clearly the peak of the schedule here: if BC can handle the Hokies in this environment, they can handle anything else they're going to see through December.
That doesn't mean they will, of course, but for any ambitions beyond winning the Atlantic Division, yeah, this is the definition of must-win.
- - -
<table><tbody><tr><td>

</td> <td>Boston College 23</td> <td>•</td> <td>Virginia Tech 18</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[RJ Esq]

Under The Hood: USC at Oregon

by HornsFan Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 10:38:22 PM EDT

The biggest game of the weekend might be out in the Pac 10, where the formerly invincible USC Trojans take on the team that's got an offense as explosive of the championship-level USC teams of 2003-04.
<center><ins>Schedule To Date</ins>

</center>


<center><ins>Statistical Composite</ins></center> <table border="1" width="100%"><caption align="top">USC By The Numbers: Offense</caption><tbody><tr bgcolor="#990000"><th>Rush YPG</th><th>Rush YPC</th><th>Rush TD</th><th>Pass YPG</th><th>Pass YPA</th><th>Pass TD</th><th>QB Rating</th><th>Yards/Play</th><th>Scoring Offense</th></tr><tr bgcolor="#fdd017"><td align="center">203.7 (20)</td><td align="center">5.24 (5)</td><td align="center">14 (36)</td><td align="center">231.0 (55)</td><td align="center">6.5 (76)</td><td align="center">17 (20)</td><td align="center">129.7 (52)</td><td align="center">5.8 (29)</td><td align="center">34.6 (10)</td></tr></tbody></table>


<table border="1" width="100%"><caption align="top">Oregon By The Numbers: Offense</caption><tbody><tr bgcolor="#00cc00"><th>Rush YPG</th><th>Rush YPC</th><th>Rush TD</th><th>Pass YPG</th><th>Pass YPA</th><th>Pass TD</th><th>QB Rating</th><th>Yards/Play</th><th>Scoring Offense</th></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffff00"><td align="center">295.4 (3)</td><td align="center">5.99 (3)</td><td align="center">24 (3)</td><td align="center">255.4 (38)</td><td align="center">8.5 (10)</td><td align="center">16 (25)</td><td align="center">162.4 (4)</td><td align="center">6.9 (4)</td><td align="center">466.0 (2)</td></tr></tbody></table>


<center>************************************************************************</center>


<table border="1" width="100%"><caption align="top">USC By The Numbers: Defense</caption><tbody><tr bgcolor="#990000"><th>Rush YPG</th><th>Rush YPC</th><th>Rush TD</th><th>Pass YPG</th><th>Pass YPA</th><th>Pass TD</th><th>QB Rate</th><th>Yards/Play</th><th>Scoring Defense</th></tr><tr bgcolor="#fdd017"><td align="center">64.1 (4)</td><td align="center">2.19 (5)</td><td align="center">7 (19)</td><td align="center">188.0 (21)</td><td align="center">4.9 (3)</td><td align="center">5 (3)</td><td align="center">97.4 (9)</td><td align="center">3.7 (2)</td><td align="center">16.6 (10)</td></tr></tbody></table>


<table border="1" width="100%"><caption align="top">Oregon By The Numbers: Defense</caption><tbody><tr bgcolor="#00cc00"><th>Rush YPG</th><th>Rush YPC</th><th>Rush TD</th><th>Pass YPG</th><th>Pass YPA</th><th>Pass TD</th><th>QB Rate</th><th>Yards/Play</th><th>Scoring Defense</th></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffff00"><td align="center">143.0 (50)</td><td align="center">3.96 (60)</td><td align="center">8 (30)</td><td align="center">253.3 (89)</td><td align="center">6.6 (49)</td><td align="center">12 (63)</td><td align="center">116.2 (38)</td><td align="center">5.3 (57)</td><td align="center">22.6 (39)</td></tr></tbody></table>


The final step is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in offensive and defensive yards per play for each of USC's and Oregon's 2007 opponents.

<ins>Analysis</ins>
*First things first: USC has played an abominable schedule thus far. Idaho, Nebraska, and Notre Dame have all proven to be horrible, while their Pac 10 slate thus far has been a tour of the bottom of the barrel. Again re: Kansas, the double standard is obvious. USC has a loss to one of the worst teams in Division 1, without a quality win to speak of, making USC the highest-ranked unproven team in the country - bar none. Just so we're clear on that.
*With that said, I do think the USC defense has asserted its strength, despite the weak competition. This unquestionably will be the stiffest test to date for the high-powered Oregon offense.
*Trojan fans will note that USC has (at least for now) switched to Mark Sanchez at quarterback, but he's not been a world beater thus far. As mediocre as John David Booty was before getting hurt, Sanchez - at least statistically - hasn't been a whole lot better than Booty. Sanchez had a nice 4 TD, 0 INT game against Notre Dame, but still missed on far too many passes. Even if you think switching to Sanchez now is the right move for the long term (which most do), some growing pains must be expected.
*Oregon simply hasn't been tested by a defense like USC's yet, which is one of the reasons why this is such an interesting matchup. We're all sure USC has an elite defense. We're all sure Oregon has an elite offense. Everything else is an unknown. And that includes who wins the battle between the Great Offense vs Great Defense.
*I'm not a big intangibles guy, but it has to help the Ducks to see USC, losers to Stanford, enter Autzen Stadium as perceived mortals. Knocking off the defending champs is never an easy task, but it helps when the champ enters with his blood in the water. I'd bet Oregon smells it.
*Finally, USC hasn't been the same offensive team since Norm Chow left for the professional ranks. The defense has been mostly strong, but the offense has lacked that consistent explosiveness. Meanwhile, I love Oregon's new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly (formerly at New Hampshire), who's off to a terrific start in Eugene.
<ins>PICK: Oregon 36 USC 31</ins>

 

[RJ Esq]

DE Aaron Lewis probable for Nebraska game


DE Aaron Lewis is probable for Nebraska game. I thought his elbow injury was going to keep him out a lot longer. Great news.

 

[RJ Esq]

UW's Hasty Quits Husky Football

Posted Oct 26th 2007 8:31AM by Sean Hawkins
Filed under: Washington Football, Pac 10

Highly touted running back J.R. Hasty, a top recruit from 2005, has left the UW football program. Hasty was slated to be the primary backup to senior Louis Rankin this season, but it just didn't work out. Hasty was actually passed on the depth chart by true frosh Brandon Johnson for the Oregon game last week, and that was the final straw.

If you aren't familiar with Hasty, he was an all-state running back out of Bellevue High School, a football power in the state of Washington. His senior year alone he rushed for over 2500 yards and set a state record with 50 rushing TD's. He came to UW as a highly rated recruit in 2005 and redshirted, all the while claiming scout team player of the year honors. Hopes were very high that Hasty was the real deal. But Hasty disappointed many last fall when he surprisingly became academically ineligible before the year and had to miss the 2006 season. Hasty got his act together and rejoined the team this year, but for reasons that some still don't understand, he never saw significant action.

You may recognize the last name, Hasty. As in, the son of long-time NFL defensive back James Hasty. While J.R. didn't have a whole lot to say on Thursday, father James didn't hold back his feelings about Tyrone Willingham and the UW program:

J.R. Hasty did not practice Wednesday, Willingham said. James Hasty said his son was pondering his future, but that he was "appalled" that no one from the coaching staff called to determine if Hasty was safe.

"No one called to even ask about his whereabouts. No 'Are you safe?' 'Are you OK?' 'Why aren't you at practice?' That was the most appalling thing," he said.

"It was appalling to see them play with kids' heads like that," James Hasty said.​

The Huskies do have the luxury of depth at this point, as Brandon Johnson and fellow frosh Curtis Shaw will now be the primary guys behind Rankin. But the loss of Hasty isn't a good sign for Willingham. Hasty was regarded as one of the top players in the state when he came out of high school, and one of the big criticisms of Willingham thus far is that he has had trouble getting the true elite talents in-state to play at Washington. The Seattle Times ran a story yesterday about the state of Washington and the recruiting going on at UW, and how important it is for UW to win the recruiting battles at home. Time will tell if this will hurt Willingham with the various high school programs around the state, but some may view this as a coach running a player off the team for various reasons. Most likely Hasty will head for division 1-AA, possibly Montana, but his final destination is not yet known. In the end, it's too bad Hasty didn't work out at the Pac-10 level.

 

[RJ Esq]

Why Yes, West Virginia Does Play Defense

Posted Oct 26th 2007 8:00AM by John Radcliff
Filed under: West Virginia Football, Big East, Rutgers Football

One thing that's gotten lost in the shuffle about this years Mountaineer team is the much improved defense. With good reason, the focus has been on Pat White and Steve Slaton this season, much like the last two seasons. But last year's scapegoat has turned things around.

It has started up front with the usual stinginess against the run. The Mountaineers are ranked 12th in the country against the run, and haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher this year. The thing that has made a huge difference is the sacks and pressure the defense has been able produce. Currently, they are 19th in sacks with 21. By comparison, last year's team didn't get a sack until an October game at Mississippi St.

And all that pressure applied by the defensive front has allowed the secondary to go from 109th nationally in yards allowed per game (243) to fifth (165).

But West Virginia has it's biggest test of the season in stopping Ray Rice and company in Piscataway this weekend. Rice is among the leaders in every major rushing category, and quarterback Mike Teel is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country when healthy. And Health or not Teel is planning on starting Saturday. West Virginia hasn't faced a team that likes to pound the ball inside this year, well a good one. Rutgers has had success running the ball in the past on West Virginia, and that will be the key. Rutgers has a fine group of wide receivers featuring Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt, but all the passing success of Rutgers is dependent on them being able to run the ball.

In their two losses, Rice was held under 100 yards. And while Mike Teel was able to put up some big numbers, he was also forced into some bad throws that cost them. So this is a statement game for the West Virginia defense. They have all the right stats, now they just need to do it against a respected offense.

 

[RJ Esq]

Sanchez to Face #5 Oregon

Devon Pollard, TrojanWire
It's official: Mark Sanchez has got "the big nod" to go ahead and start against the 5th ranked Oregon Ducks. We ain't in South Bend any more Todo...the Ducks play some serious defense. Sanchez will have a lot more to deal with than just noise from the crowd. Oregon will bring on the pressure, they will try to disrupt his rhythm, and they will try to do what they do best...force turnovers.
Sanchez has seemed a bit more comfortable running the ball than John David Booty, recognizing space and scrambling for a couple key first downs. It might just give Dennis Dixon and the Oregon defense a taste of their own medicine, having a duel threat from not only the Trojan running backs and receivers, but from Sanchez himself as well.
Although Booty's hand is not yet 100%, he will be waiting on the sidelines in case duty calls.

 

[RJ Esq]

THEY ALL FALL DOWN...UNTIL THE TWO-MINUTE DRILL
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 06:18:58 AM EDT

If the narrative point of tonight's game in Blacksburg was to gauge Boston College's separation from the chaffe, or lack thereof, it jubilantly defied the premises. As far as supposed learning experiences go, though, it sure was fun. I don't think there's a lot of point in trying to reassess the Eagles' virtues after that sort of win - they may have left on uplifitng sentiment, an image of clumsy goodwill and guts (literally, in Matt Ryan's case) on the sideline after Ryan's winning touchdown pass, but the game in general defined the genre of "yes, but..." Yes, B.C. rallied for 14 points in four minutes in sloppy conditions to down a first rate defense in a first rate madhouse of a stadium, but it was only after 56 minutes of steady ass-kicking by the Hokies. Yes, B.C. survived the kind of impossible "team of destiny" game every champion has to endure at some point, but what are the odds of a similar push (there was the flubbed onside kick and everything) when the proceedings turn sour again down the line, as they almost inevitably will? Yes, Matt Ryan is a hero, a tough, vomiting hero, but his undeniable brilliance in the clutch only cancels out the rushed misfires that made up the great bulk of his first 39 attempts over more than three and a half quarters, which produced nothing. B.C. spent so long digging itself a hole on offense, the spectacular finish only got it back to 'even' in my mind.
I will say this for Ryan, who I apparently shortchanged before the game when I flippantly suggested he would be "the best player on the field, but only if he doesn't have to be." It was exactly the opposite: he was arguably the worst player, save possibly the outmanned freshman assigned to blocking Chris Ellis by himself, until there was no choice. And then he was virtually flawless.

Fifty percent of Boston College's total offense.
- - -
Tech partisans might be upset with the roomy secondary the Hokie defense showed on those drives, but its front four - and sometimes just three - had been relentlessly hounding Ryan all night, often in less obvious passing situations, without requiring help from the blitz. The Eagle offensive line stepped up, and with the extra time and confidence to stand and set his feet, the balls that had been sailing and fluttering on Ryan looked like they were guided by lasers fixed on his receivers' numbers. The first touchdown pass in the comeback was an amazing display of technique and precision; the game-winner was all vision and instinctual athleticism on the fly. It was one of the most remarkable, total in-game turnarounds I can remember.
But it doesn't leave me any more confident in the Eagles to run the table over their remaning four games, all against likely bowl teams, and with the conference championship beyond that. You can forget the first 56 minutes long enough to celebrate or wring a glowing profile of the all-American hero of the will, Matt Ryan, but Florida State, Maryland, Clemson and Miami can play defense, too, and B.C. won't get away with such an uneven performance again.

He's bobbling it, dude.
- - -

• Every week there are instances of vast disconnect between what I see (almost always backed up by what the booth announcers say they see) and what the officials looking at video deem "indisputable," and I'd like to note here for the record one of the truly ridiculous calls of the year, when officials rewarded and then inexplicably upheld Virginia Tech's only touchdown in the second quarter. The back judge on the field obviously had no idea where Eddie Royal's feet were in real time - it took him so long to consult with a colleague who had no position whatsoever to make a judgment that I wondered why they even bothered to make a call on the field at all; replay loomed from the second the ball left Sean Glennon's hands. And replay showed without question, from me or from the booth or from anyone with eyes, that Royal bobbled the ball and didn't control it against his body until his feet were a good six inches past the chalk, at minimum. It wasn't close, and because it basically handed the Hokies an extra four points when they should have been forced into a field goal, it dramatically changed the strategy at the end of the game. At least they didn't follow up by calling an obviously in-bounds Rich Gunnell out on Boston College's first touchdown. Because that would have really sucked.

 

[RJ Esq]

Upset Alert in Happy Valley?

Posted Oct 26th 2007 2:00PM by Bruce Ciskie
Filed under: Ohio State Football, Penn State Football, Big 10

This week, top-ranked Ohio State gets what should be their toughest test before the Michigan game, as they visit Beaver Stadium to play Penn State. The Nittany Lions are responsible for tOSU's last Big Ten loss, and they would love nothing more than to break the Buckeyes' regular-season win streak at 26.

To do that, Penn State is going to need a Herculean effort from their starting quarterback, a hit from the hit-and-miss running game, and superb all-around play on defense. Even at home, this may be asking too much of a team that has already struggled offensively against Michigan (and Ohio State's defense is better than Michigan's).

For a team that was supposed to be a little unpolished on offense, Ohio State has rounded into form nicely. QB Todd Boeckman is making the most of his opportunity as the starter, making good decisions and flashing enough arm strength to allow the Buckeyes to stretch the field. Sure, he has a top runner in Chris Wells (221 yards against Michigan State last week), and very good receivers in Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline, and Ray Small, but he's taking care of the ball. Boeckman isn't the most mobile soul in the world (actually, he more closely resembles a fire hydrant than he does Pat White in terms of mobility), and that could be a problem against Penn State's hyper-aggressive defense.

The Buckeyes will have to use max-protection, as the Nittany Lions are bound to send a few blitzes Boeckman's way. Expect tOSU to use quick-strike passes and draw plays to Wells as a way to combat those blitzes. However, Penn State has the kind of defense that could throw off the timing of the Buckeye attack enough to keep the score down.

And against the Ohio State defense, you're not going to score much, so keeping the score down is vitally important.

Senior QB Anthony Morelli has been a bit of a surprise this year, putting up some big numbers and handling a lot of the offensive load when the running game has faltered. That said, he's not the kind of player that inspires confidence when the game is on the line, because he's not terribly mobile, doesn't have Boeckman's poise, and he just isn't a consistently accurate thrower.

It makes sense to argue that Morelli will be good in this game. He was solid against Indiana, tore up Wisconsin's secondary in the first half two weeks ago, and is playing at home. However, the Nittany Lions have to run the ball Saturday. Morelli can't be burdened with making the whole offense go against a defense like Ohio State.

Sophomore RB Rodney Kinlaw has averaged over 100 yards the last three weeks, and he's been a workhorse. For Penn State to win, he has to continue that play against the best defense he's faced since emerging as the feature back. Ohio State will make Morelli pay for any mistakes he makes throwing the ball, so Penn State is likely to win (if they do) with their ground game.

Simply put, tOSU has more weapons, a better defense, and you know Jim Tressel will have them prepared to play well in a very tough environment. With Boeckman, Wells, Robiskie, and Hartline, the Buckeyes have notable advantages at all three major offensive skill positions. Even if the defenses are even-up (and I would argue Ohio State is a little stronger on defense), the advantage in the games goes to the Buckeyes.

 

[RJ Esq]

TAKE MY DIVISION...PLEASE!
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 12:24:40 PM EDT


Quickly, because there's not much time today, but here are the current SEC East standings:
Here's what's going on in the SEC East with Georgia-Florida and South Carolina-Tennessee on tap Saturday (note: Vanderbilt is out of conference this week and all scenarios presume a Kentucky win over Mississippi State; if that doesn't happen, god help us):

<table cellpadding="6" cellspacing="6"> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(187, 135, 135) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">W</td> <td align="center">L</td> <td align="center">Division Wins</td> <td align="center">Division Losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">South Carolina</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="left">Georgia, Kentucky</td> <td align="left">Vanderbilt</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Florida</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="left">Tennessee, Kentucky</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Georgia</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="left">Vanderbilt</td> <td align="left">So. Carolina, Tennessee</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="left">Georgia</td> <td align="left">Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Kentucky</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">-</td> <td align="left">So. Carolina, Florida</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Vanderbilt</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="left">So. Carolina</td> <td align="left">Georgia</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The Simple Solution:
Scenario 1:Florida beats Georgia, South Carolina beats Tennessee. South Carolina and Florida are the only teams that currently control their own destiny, so it's pretty cut and dry if both win Saturday: the Gators and Gamecocks could meet in the Ball Coach Bowl for a pure division championship game in two weeks. Hypothetical wins this weekend would give both UF and USC head-to-head tiebreaker advantages over Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee.

I know you were told there'd be no math in this job, guys, but bear with us...
- - -

In between wins this weekend and a winner-take-all showdown, though, the Gators and Cocks still have to deal next week with Vanderbilt and Arkansas, respectively, and presuming it's winning its own games, Kentucky would remain alive under this scenario if (and only if) one of those two loses next week, then beats the other the following week. This is the simple solution.
The headaches:
Scenario 2: Florida beats Georgia, Tennessee beats South Carolina. Georgia is eliminated with a loss, period, and Florida is still in the driver's seat. If UF wins, Tennessee would have to win out against Kentucky and Vanderbilt and hope Florida loses one of its last two to Vanderbilt and/or South Carolina to avoid coming out on the short end of a tiebreaker; ditto Kentucky in its closing run against Vandy, Georgia and Tennessee (both of which are cooked with a third loss Saturday). Amazingly, Carolina would remain theoretically alive at 3-3 with the prospect of beating Arkansas and Florida and getting one loss from Kentucky in its last three or Tennessee in its last two. It's distant, but even if Tennessee beats USC, the Gamecocks can hold out for a three-to-five-way log jam at 5-3.
Actually, you could construct a couple not far-out scenarios at this point that end in all six teams finishing at 5-3. But we won't get into that.
Scenario 3: Georgia beats Florida, South Carolina beats Tennessee. Carolina is in the driver's seat. With a win over Florida, Georgia stays alive if it can also win its last two (thereby eliminating Kentucky in the process) and get help from Arkansas or Florida in beating South Carolina. This scenario would benefit Kentucky, too, by eliminating Florida, though the Wildcats would also need somebody to beat Carolina; a Georgia win makes the UGA-UK match in two weeks a pivotal game. Again, Tennessee is essentially done with a loss: it would have to win out and hope South Carolina loses both of its last two games, one of which is against Florida, who the Vols also need to lose a fourth game, meaning it would have to root for Vanderbilt to beat the Gators next week. Forget all that and remember this: Tennessee is essentially done with a loss to Carolina.
Scenario 4: Georgia beats Florida, Tennessee beats South Carolina. Kentucky and Tennessee suddenly control their own destiny, and set up a possible winner-take-all finale if both keep winning - this is the best result for the Wildcats because it takes out both of its current tiebreaker nemeses. Other than Vanderbilt, Georgia is in the worst position even with a win in the Cocktail Party because it's already lost to Tennessee and South Carolina, and needs help down the stretch against the winner of that game regardless. Remember this: Georgia has to beat Florida or it is finished, without qualification. UGA would fall to 1-3 in the division and no tiebreaker will save that.
Florida is in dire straits in this scenario, moreso even than if Carolina won as in scenario 3, because it would require the Gators to win out and hope for help against Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky, which is particularly unlikely because those teams all play one another over the last three weeks and somebody has to win those games.
Get all that? I didn't think so. My guess is you didn't even try to read it, and I don't blame you. The primer: Florida and South Carolina are in the best position if they keep winning and have a somewhat distant shot even if they lose Saturday, whereas Georgia and Tennessee are kaput if they don't pull it out this weekend. UGA and Tennessee wins would also help Kentucky, which the needs help to move past Florida and Carolina.
Just know this for certain: every team in the division - including Vanderbilt, if it finishes the four-game upset run it began last week against South Carolina - can still make the SEC Championship. They just have to keep winning. And, you know, catch the right break. It's not rocket science.
- - -
For the record, I called this mess back in August. Well, not called exactly, but, you know, I suggested it, to an extent: "In the current cycle of program strength, weakness and turnover, the gap between [the traditional top three teams and bottom three teams] isn’t going to get any smaller than it is now."
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[RJ Esq]

Phil's Top 25

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="904"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4">
</td><td colspan="18">Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 tms.*Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 yds or 4 pts!
</td><td colspan="8">
</td><td height="135">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8">
</td><td colspan="12" rowspan="5">Wk of October 25th
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="2">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="2">

</td><td rowspan="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="2">

</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" rowspan="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="10">
</td><td height="14">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="9">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="2">#1 vs #24
</td><td colspan="21">
</td><td height="17">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="10">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3">#2 vs #8
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="33">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#1 Ohio State
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">115
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">150
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">18
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.8
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#24 Penn St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">110
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">190
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">17
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.6
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="8">
</td><td height="11">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#2 Boston College
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">72
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">240
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">20
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.6
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#8 Virginia Tech
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">73
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">270
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">26
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.6
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td rowspan="3">
</td><td height="38">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3">My computer is split on this one. The yards call for Penn St to have a 300-265 yard edge so the yards call for an outright upset. The points call for Ohio St to squeak out a 1 point win. EACH of the Buckeyes last 4 opponents are stronger than ANY team they have played so far and if they go unbeaten in their last 4, they will have earned the #1 ranking. This one is decided late and an upset is no surprise.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #1 Ohio State 17 #24 PENN ST 16
</td><td colspan="8">
</td><td height="12">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="2">The #2 team in the country has gone down 3 straight weeks and this is a very tough spot as Virginia Tech is at its best and rowdiest on Thursday nights. BC did have a dominant road win at Georgia Tech earlier this year but the Hokies are getting better weekly and starting to emerge as a darkhorse national title contender themselves.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #8 VIRGINIA TECH 24 Boston College 20

</td><td rowspan="2">
</td><td height="116">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="10">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="2">#5 vs #9
</td><td colspan="20">
</td><td height="24">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3">#6 vs #25
</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="24">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#9 USC
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">164
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">223
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">27
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.7
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#5 Oregon
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">212
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">238
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">34
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.8
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="19">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="18">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#6 West Virginia
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">275
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">168
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">36
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.1
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#25 Rutgers
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">136
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">228
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">27
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3.1
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="32">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3">Normally when two teams meet and one has a clear edge on defense, I side with the defensive team. Even though the Ducks have lost 3 of their top 4 receivers from the preseason and valuable backup RB Johnson, they still have their top two weapons in QB Dixon and RB Stewart who rival WV’s White and Slaton as the best QB/RB combo in the country. Autzen Stadium is one of only two home fields that I give a 6 point home edge to. PHIL’S FORECAST: #5 OREGON 33 #9 Usc 26
</td><td colspan="3">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="18">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="3">Last year in West Virginia this game went to OT and WV barely prevailed. In that game QB Pat White was OUT with an injury and RB Slaton was not 100%. WV is on the road this year but have a healthy White/Slaton combo. Rutgers did lose to both Maryland and Cincinnati earlier this year at home and WV is stronger than both those teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #6 West Virginia 37 #25 RUTGERS 20

</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="96">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="29">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="3">#7 vs #18
</td><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="20">
</td><td height="34">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3">#9 vs #20
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="13">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#18 California
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">134
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">228
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">22
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.5
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#7 Arizona St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">182
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">268
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">36
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.2
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="4">
</td><td height="32">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#20 Georgia
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">125
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">240
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">24
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.3
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#9 Florida
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">195
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">215
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">34
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.3
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3">Like Ohio State above, the Sun Devils have not been tested this year as they have yet to face a ranked foe. Cal already went into Autzen Stadium and thanks to 3 4Q Duck turnovers came away with a win. Arizona St is worthy of their #7 ranking and has this one in the desert.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #7 ARIZONA ST 31 #18 California 24

</td><td colspan="4">
</td><td height="32">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4">
</td><td colspan="10" rowspan="3">Mark Richt is 9-2 off a bye and this game has not been decided by 7 or more in 4 years. My computer leans with the Gators but I think the Bulldogs are capable of the upset catching Florida off a big game and Richt’s record off a bye is the clincher.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #20 Georgia 30 #9 Florida 27

</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="76">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="17">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="2">#11
</td><td colspan="6">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="21">
</td><td height="43">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="4">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="4"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#11 USF
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">158
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">180
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">22
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3.2
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Connecticut
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">127
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">155
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">18
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3.6
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td colspan="8">#12
</td><td colspan="6">
</td><td height="48">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="6">
</td><td colspan="11" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#12 Kansas
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">140
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">220
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">26
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.4
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Texas A&M
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">230
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">170
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">21
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.1
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="3">South Florida suffered a tough loss last week at Rutgers thanks in part to a fake FG and a fake punt. They also were playing a little tight after rising to #2 in the polls and having the national media focus on them. Connecticut slowed down Louisville’s offense last week but that was mostly due to heavy rain and winds. They also got the ridiculous non-call of a fair catch which was a gift 7 points from the officials and kept them in the game. No pressure on USF and no snow like the last time they traveled here and Connecticut is 6-1 only because of a soft schedule.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #11 Usf 27 CONNECTICUT 10
</td><td colspan="6">
</td><td height="49">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="6">
</td><td colspan="11" rowspan="3">I thought Colorado would knock off Kansas last week and I was wrong but Kansas was not overwhelming in their win and was outgained and outFD’d. This week they take on a stronger team in a second straight road game. A key to the Aggies is running the ball and they can win any game where they have success on the ground and my computer calls for 230 yards rushing. This is a call for one less undefeated team after this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 27 #12 Kansas 20

</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="87">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="38">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="2">#13
</td><td colspan="8">
</td><td height="15">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="21">
</td><td height="33">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="2"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Iowa St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">91
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">180
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.8
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#13 Missouri
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">179
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">320
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">40
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.0
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="8">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="2">#14
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="2">
</td><td height="46">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="18">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="30">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="4">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="4">Iowa St gave a great effort last week vs Oklahoma as they were down by 7 in the 4Q and at the Sooner 7 yard line when they were intercepted in the end zone. That will only have the Tigers on alert here and Missouri sure looks like the upcoming Big 12 North Champ and could be 11-1 when they face the Sooner’s again. My computer calls for Missouri to roll up 499 yards and win in a rout and I agree.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #13 MISSOURI 44 Iowa St 6
</td><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td colspan="11"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Mississippi St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">131
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">145
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">23
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.7
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#14 Kentucky
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">174
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">275
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">39
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.9
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td colspan="11" rowspan="5">An undefeated Wildcat team went on the road on national TV vs Steve Spurrier and came up short. The next week they come home and upset the #1 team in the country! The next week they play a tight game to the defending national champs also at home in front of a sellout crowd. Now they are a big favorite vs a Miss St team that has upset Auburn and Alabama on the road the last two years. My computer shows UK is capable of a big win but how much could they possibly have left in the tank.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #14 KENTUCKY 30 Mississippi 20

</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="5">
</td><td height="52">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16">
</td><td height="30">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="6">
</td><td colspan="6">#15
</td><td colspan="4">
</td><td height="48">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#15 S Carolina
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">53
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">230
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">23
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.2
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Tennessee
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">172
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">260
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">26
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.2
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3">
</td><td height="22">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="27">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="4">#16
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="4">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="6">Steve Spurrier knows how to win on the road and his SC team won their only trip to Knoxville under his command. Tennessee was dominant in their rout at home vs Georgia two weeks ago but their secondary is vulnerable and Spurrier will find ways to exploit it. SC has a large defensive edge and pulls the road upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #15 South Carolina 27 TENNESSEE 24

</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="2">
</td><td height="15">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" rowspan="5">
</td><td height="24">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="9"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">New Mexico St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">47
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">315
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">28
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3.0
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#16 Hawaii
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">93
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">535
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">55
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.5
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="7">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="5">The month of October was not kind to either QB as NMSt’s Holbrook basically missed 3 games and Hawaii’s Brennan missed 1 and was not 100% for others. Holbrook was back last week and threw for over 400 yards. Brennan is as healthy as he has been as the Warriors are off a bye. Two offensive minded head coaches with BIG egos about their offenses and two years ago Jones and Mumme joked about not having a single rush attempt when they met. This one could last 5 hours and points will be plentiful.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #16 HAWAII 47 New Mexico St 30

</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="5">
</td><td height="27">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16">
</td><td height="44">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7">
</td><td colspan="6">#17
</td><td colspan="3">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" rowspan="2">
</td><td colspan="9" rowspan="2"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Nebraska
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">75
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">205
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">12
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.6
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#17 Texas
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">235
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">325
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">41
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.8
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3">
</td><td height="41">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19">
</td><td height="13">
</td></tr><tr><td width="3">

</td><td width="145">

</td><td width="9">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="268">

</td><td width="3">

</td><td width="71">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="2">

</td><td width="28">

</td><td width="2">

</td><td width="2">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="2">

</td><td width="73">

</td><td width="4">

</td><td width="262">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="1">

</td><td width="3">

</td><td width="2">

</td><td height="1" width="9">

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href="http://www.philsteele.com/FBS%20Info/midssn%20all%20conf/midssnallconfmai.html"><area alt="" coords="11,105,132,118" href="http://www.philsteele.com/Top%2025/top25main.html"><area alt="" coords="11,76,119,89" href="http://www.philsteele.com/Misc%20Pages/phil%27sweeklynote.html"><area alt="" coords="11,47,99,57" href="http://ncsports.websitegear.com"><area alt="" coords="13,0,78,13" href="http://www.philsteele.com"></map><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="904"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="9">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="6">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="6">Nebraska has sure been a disappointing team as their defense has yielded a large amount of points and yards to every team they have played. Texas has been a disappointing team with 2 solid games and 5 average performances. If Huskers continue on in current form they will probably be looking for a new head coach but Callahan just signed a contract extension in September. Call for a comfortable Texas win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #17 TEXAS 38 Nebraska 17

</td><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="14">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2">
</td><td colspan="2">#19
</td><td>
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="4"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Minnesota
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">98
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">175
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">12
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">3.9
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#19 Michigan
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">242
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">295
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">39
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.7
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="5">Michigan was ridiculed by the media after their opening two games and even fell out of the top 25. Since then they have been impressive and actually have a GREAT shot at playing in the Rose Bowl as they get Ohio St at home. Last week Minnesota made my Top 25 forecasts as I called for North Dakota St to upset them and that they did. This will not be an “A” game from Michigan with Mich St, Wisky and Ohio St on deck but they still win it comfortably.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #19 MICHIGAN 41 Minnesota 14
</td><td height="14">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="34">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2">
</td><td>#21
</td><td colspan="2">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#21 Virginia
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">158
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">150
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">17
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.2
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">NC State
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">97
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">210
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">16
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.8
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td>
</td><td height="22">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="20">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">#23
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3">
</td><td height="12">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="5">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="5">Last week NC State made this page as I called for them to upset East Carolina. Yes, they have suffered some major injuries on offense but they used the bye to get focused for a big turnaround in the second half of the season. Virginia was fortunate to get a late 90 yard drive for a TD to pull out a win on the road at Maryland trailing almost the entire game. They are a much weaker team on the road and this is their second straight road trip. PHIL’S FORECAST: NC STATE 20 #21 Virginia 17

</td><td>
</td><td height="35">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td>
</td><td colspan="4"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td height="12" valign="top" width="124">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Rushing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Yds Passing
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Points
</td><td valign="top" width="53">Turn Overs
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">Mississippi
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">52
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">173
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">5
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">2.7
</td></tr><tr><td height="17" valign="top" width="124">#23 Auburn
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">214
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">218
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">30
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">1.6
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
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</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="2">Auburn has really turned their season around and are at their best when they can establish the rush attack. They face perhaps the weakest rush D in the SEC this week and that should result in a dominating win for the Tigers.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #23 AUBURN 38 Mississippi 10

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[RJ Esq]

FRIDAY QUARTERBACK
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 06:17:07 PM EDT


Pleasantries dispensed today for the sake of time - straight on to the picks:
GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK!
Southern Cal at Oregon
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What’s at Stake: The winner stays within at least a game of Arizona State and UCLA for the Pac Ten lead, with the chance to take on both of those teams as a likely favorite in the next few weeks, i.e. the winner here is the conference frontrunner in popular perception and still very much in the pecking order for a mythical championship bid.

It's lonely at the top, and even lonelier everywhere else.
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Speaking of popular perception, both teams have some elusive voter elan at stake: take away a less-impressive-than-it-looked-then blowout of Nebraska, and USC has been looking ordinary all season, very far from the automatic mythical championship contender or even conference powerhouse it was presumed to be. Oregon can officially knock the Trojans from that pedestal for the first time in five years, and turn anyone who’s still skeptical of the championship merits of a team that – gasp! – was unranked in the preseason.
USC Wants: It’s been years since the Trojans were underdogs in any game – since before anyone on this team set foot on campus, with the exception Herschel “Not the 19th Century English Mathemetician, Astronomer and Chemist But Old Enough to Be” Dennis, who has seen so many point spreads through the ages, impatient one – and at least as long since they came in as the less explosive, more ball control-oriented attack, but here we are. Not that USC isn’t going to take its shot at big plays, what with Oregon’s defense having yielded relatively big days to Houston (545 yards, 27 points), Stanford (402 yards, 31 points), Cal (400 yards, 31 points) and Washington (421 yards, 34 points), but competent opponents are pounding the ball to pretty good effect against the Ducks to date. The problem is that they’ve all found themselves playing catch up sooner rather than later, and mostly very young quarterbacks have been forced into predictable passing situations. USC doesn’t want that to happen to Mark Sanchez in just his second start, so while the mantra in this offense is always aggressive balance, and the somewhat disappointing receivers remain too talented to leave outside stalk blocking for too long, the Trojans’ ability to establish the run with Chauncey Washington, Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight will establish the pace – they do not want to find themselves riding Sanchez in a shootout. This is overlooked amid the offensive disappointment, but the Trojan defense has lived up to its hype and may be the best of Carroll’s tenure, not just the most talented: SC is fourth against the run, ninth in pass efficiency, third in total D and tenth in scoring defense. It may have to trust its corners in man coverage early on in an effort to take Jonathan Stewart out of the game, but if they can slow down the terrifying Duck running game long enough to build a lead and force Dennis Dixon into pass-first mode, Oregon's arsenal suddenly looks far less terrifying. Look for an aggressive approach from the SC defense out of the gate.
Oregon Wants: The Ducks are more comfortable with high scoring games because they attack with the most balanced, potent set of weapons in the country: third in rushing, second in total offense, second in scoring – there is no weakness, only pain. As long as Dixon is healthy, Oregon can beat a defense any way it wants. USC is one of the few defenses athletic enough and strong enough in the front seven to hope to neutralize Stewart, but the read option part of the scheme is designed to keep speed in check and make those athletes play smart, disciplined defense instead – when you combine that with the Ducks’ execution and sleek backfield talent, you get results like 465 yards rushing against Washington. USC definitely is not Washington, but if Stewart and Dennis Dixon find room early and keep the Trojans looking run, thinking too much, on their heels, it will be bombs away, and Sanchez will have to shoulder a much bigger load than SC would like to keep up.
The Pick: I’m not sure I can overstate my awe-filled love of Oregon’s offense. I want to resist hyperbole, and it’s just as impossible to ignore my respect for USC’s defense and near-monolithic big game dominance over the past five years. When the Trojans get up for a game, with the exception of the narrowest of narrow defeats to Texas, they win it, and usually win it big. I don’t think Dennis Dixon, even collaborating with Jonathan Stewart and the rest of the shock yellow mustangs on this offense, is anything like the force of nature Vince Young was at that point, but I don’t think USC is anything like what it was at that point, either. For a team that was supposed to just reassume its role as skull-cracking number one, this game is a line in the sand: are you still the USC everyone knew and expected again, or aren’t you? I haven’t made it a secret: I think the Trojans’ empire is slowly eroding. Oregon seems too balanced, too explosive right now to let them cross that line on its turf.
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</td> <td>Oregon 27</td> <td>•</td> <td>Southern Cal 24</td> </tr> </tbody></table> California at Arizona State
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ASU’s season now comes down its next four games, all of them tougher than any single game the Devils have won over their first seven (six of which were at home), and ASU’s success will be rightly scrutinized until it does something of similar merit against a defense of this caliber. Not that the Bears’ defense hasn’t endured plenty of problems: opponents are gaining 379 yards on average and scoring 26 points against Cal, fairly awful numbers for a ranked team, and a couple of offenses have really had their way – Oregon, for one, but also Colorado State, a team that started 0-6 before last week but nearly upset the Bears back in September. ASU, meanwhile, survived a close, lackluster game at Washington State but has largely buried the rest of its schedule under a lethally balanced offense and the most underrated defense in at least the Pac Ten – ASU is best in the conference and fourth in the nation in scoring defense, primarily by preventing the big play: only four snaps against the Devils in seven games have gone for longer than 40 yards, and none for longer than 47, suggesting they might have some success blanketing DeSean Jackson. I don’t know how much it helps ASU to be playing at home for the sixth time in eight weeks, but if you’re looking for a reason other than Arizona State’s defense to take the Devils, it can’t be a very good site for ending their opponent’s two-game slide.
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</td> <td>Arizona State 30</td> <td>•</td> <td>California 25</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Florida vs. Georgia
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It’s tempting to reflexively take the Gators in light of their overwhelming succes against Georgia the last 18 years, but don’t let history fool you – take the Gators because Matt Stafford is virtually guaranteed to struggle against Florida’s defense. The Gators have had their own growing pains, but Stafford hasn’t played to his promise since his quietly terriffic performance in the opening win over Oklahoma State. Outside of that game and Western Carolina, Stafford has completed less than 50 percent of his passes and shows no signs of being able to replicate the fireworks that Andre Woodson delivered to keep Kentucky in the game last week. Georgia has a shot if it can generate a consistent running game, but that seems like too much slack for Knowshon Moreno to have to pick up.
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</td> <td>Florida 24</td> <td>•</td> <td>Georgia 16</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Ohio State at Penn State
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The line here is only 3.5 in the Buckeyes’ favor, which strikes me as almost laughably low. Penn State is at home, but it’s facing a legitimately punishing defense , and with Anthony Morelli this time, not Michael Robinson. Fans doing the “White Out” thing will look good, briefly, but won’t be able to do anything to stop Chris Wells from pounding the clock away while the Lion offense does its damndest to get into good punt position.
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</td> <td>Ohio State 21</td> <td>•</td> <td>Penn State 12</td> </tr> </tbody></table> South Carolina at Tennessee
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The Vols frustrate me to no end, because there is no rhyme or reason for which version shows up week to week. – are we getting the UT that impressively smashed Georgia or that went down in flames on defense in other big games against Cal, Florida and Alabama? There are a couple common factors at play there: the one good game was at home, against a rather pedestrian offense; the losses were all on the road, against balanced offenses the Vols simply never adjusted to. South Carolina is closer to the first example: I don’t know who’s planning to start at quarterback for the Cocks, but I don’t have much confidence in him playing for very long, or in USC’s ability to sustain the run, which should also mean that Tennessee should not be repeatedly burned by Kennly McKinley the way it was by LaVell Hawkins in Berkeley, Percy Harvin in the Swamp or D.J. Hall last week; the borderline anemia of Carolina’s offense went from ‘possible concern’ to ‘wailing siren’ in about one quarter last week, and going into the ninth game of the season, it still has no identity to build on. Erik Ainge, meanwhile, is hitting the final month of his career, and if he can’t go out on top of the SEC, he can at least swing back all the way out the door.
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</td> <td>Tennessee 26</td> <td>•</td> <td>South Carolina 17</td> </tr> </tbody></table> West Virginia at Rutgers
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If I hadn’t actually watched Mike Teel against South Florida, I would certainly think better of him by his numbers, which are outstanding. He was erratic almost to the extreme against the Bulls, though, hitting just 11 of 29 just a couple weeks after throwing three interceptions in the Knights’ loss to Cincinnati. Against better defenses than Buffalo and Norfolk State, he doesn’t seem particularly improved. The same cannot be said for West Virginia’s defense, which has been vastly better than it was last year (the Mountaineers are currently fourth in the nation in total D) and will not bend much if Teel can’t effectively complement the endless Ray Rice plunges into the line. I have more confidence in White, Slaton and Devine, for whom 400 yards and 28 points is a slow day at the office; even on an ostensibly bad night at USF, with the backup quarterback eventually taking most of the snaps, the Mountaineers piled up 437 yards in surprisingly balanced fashion. Rutgers adjusted to Matt Grothe’s scrambling act last week and played much better in space in the second half, but it won’t have the luxury of focusing on one man here – as always, if West Virginia holds on to the ball, it’s Slaton and White’s game to lose.
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</td> <td>West Virginia 34</td> <td>•</td> <td>Rutgers 23</td> </tr> </tbody></table> South Florida at Connecticut
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I haven’t been particularly impressed with either of these offenses in the times I’ve seen them this year, but I was doubly not impressed with UConn last week against a really porous unit from Louisville. Maybe it was the rain, but the Huskies didn’t accomplish anything offensively until the closing minutes, and there’s still the matter of the bogus fair catch no-call there and the blown fourth down touchdown call against Temple – even the Big East administration doesn’t think the Huskies should be 6-1 right now. They will not be 7-1 unless this turns into another mudder, figuratively or literally, as was the case last week. Matt Grothe doesn’t get a lot of help from the rest of USF’s offense, but he is a real playmaking talent for the Bulls, and I don’t know who you can say that about for UConn.
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</td> <td>South Florida 27</td> <td>•</td> <td>Connecticut 18</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Kansas at Texas A&M
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The Aggies are supposed to be “lame duck” or something, but I wouldn’t count on that – not after they stomped the genuine article last week in Lincoln. This Kansas team is operating under a completely different mindset, of course, but much more important than the psychology is this: can A&M run the ball? The Aggies are at their best when they’re pounding away on long, time-consuming drives, and when they can’t do that – see at Miami, at Texas Tech earlier this year – the whole operation seems to go belly up. Kansas has unveiled a diverse, potent offense that stole the show at Kansas State and at Colorado and should fare just fine if it can get its hands on the ball here. The Wildcats couldn’t run on KU (53 yards) and the Buffaloes couldn’t run on KU (66 yards), and with the focus on making TAMU one-dimensional, I like another Jayhawk win on the road.
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</td> <td>Kansas 31</td> <td>•</td> <td>Texas A&M 27</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Colorado at Texas Tech
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There will be a lot of attention on what Colorado inexplicably did to Tech in Boulder last year, a vicious beatdown in an otherwise wreched season of CU, but the Raiders have never been the same team outside of Lubbock, for whatever reason. The Buffs looked like they were going to make a nice run after beating Oklahoma in the middle of three-game win streak, but that’s fizzled the last two weeks against the Kansas schools; as it stands, CU is 1-4 against quality competition and has given up an average of 420 yards over its last three games. This is the wrong offense for getting your feet back under you.
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</td> <td>Texas Tech 36</td> <td>•</td> <td>Colorado 23</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Clemson at Maryland
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Maryland continues to mystify, because it’s not good at anything in particular, and is glaringly bad at a few other things (like passing, for instance, anything to do with passing), yet the Terps continue to win games against the likes of Georgia Tech and Rutgers and are an overtime (against Wake Forest) and one point (against Virginia last week) from being 6-1 and unbeaten in the ACC going into this game. I like Clemson because it’s good in a few specific ways – the Tigers can usually run the ball and have gone out their way to balance the offense this year with Cullen Harper, and rank in the top ten nationally in pass efficiency and total defense, where all four ACC opponents to date have been held under 300 yards – but mainly because I don’t have anything nice to say about its opponent.
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</td> <td>Clemson 28</td> <td>•</td> <td>Maryland 22</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Boise State at Fresno State
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I don’t think I’ll be able to watch this game tonight, but I’d like to, because – Broncos’ November visit to Hawaii notwithstanding – this could be the mid-major game of the year. Even on the road, with Ian Johnson out of the lineup for Boise, I don’t know enough about Fresno this year to justify picking against BSU. I do know the Bronco-favoring long term trends on these two teams (Boise has won every conference championship since it entered the WAC, and Fresno, for all its success, has never won even a share of a title under Pat Hill), and on top of that, FSU is currently 101st against the run, having allowed 248 to Nevada and 290 to Idaho in consecutive weeks. Ian Johnson or not, blue turf or not, that will not be good enough against Boise State.
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</td> <td>Boise State 41</td> <td>•</td> <td>Fresno State 32</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Nebraska at Texas
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I’ll be looking live! at this game, from way, way up in the upper deck, apparently – not that there’s anything wrong with that – and so feel compelled to give it some due here, but in reality, I don’t think Tom Osborne or pep-talkin' Lou Holth or anyone else could quite salvage the wreckage of Nebraska’s season. Texas has not been impressive, but the ‘Horns are still winning, at least, and have the talent on offense to continue the Big Red’s disgraceful defensive backslide. UT is a 23-point favorite, so let’s go with the experts.
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</td> <td>Texas 39</td> <td>•</td> <td>Nebraska 13</td> </tr> </tbody></table>Remember to stop in Saturday for the gameday open thread, a new SMQ tradition off to a nice start the last few weeks, going up early and staying up all day for whatever you’d like to add. It’s a scene, man.
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[RJ Esq]

Adding:

CMU -2.5 (-110)

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

WVU -6 (-105)

Teel has a bruised throwing hand and WVU has defended the run well holding opponents to under 90 ypg. RU will try their best to keep WVU's offense off the field. And the weather will help them abit (90% chance of rain), but I think that WVU's rushing attack will hold the ball and be too much for RU in the long run.

WVU by 7-8 pts in a relatively low scoring affair.

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

Ohio St/Penn St Under 40' (-110)

2 conservative coaches. 2 very good/great defenses. 1 good offense. 1 decent offense. Supposed to be cold and windy too tonight. I don't see the total getting out of the 30s.

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

Minnesota +23' (-103)

Too many points here. Michigan doesn't have anything to prove here like it did against a ranked Purdue team, where Michigan won by 27. Hart will rest and probably so will Henne. Michigan needs to rest up for Michigan St, Wisconsin, and Ohio St so it doesn't need to keep the starters in there longer than it has too.

Minnesota also likes to keep it close in these Little Brown Jug games.

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

Utah -5 (+106)

Wow! What a great line! Just got off the phone with BAR and talked to him about it. Seing him and JPicks on this one gives good confidence. MB just changed the line to 5 and didn't have any money on it then I was watching and they through out the +106 which lasted all of 45 seconds.

Now cash!

 

[B.A.R.]

Love all the additions..as we talked about.

May add the under tonight myself