WEEK 8

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

GT +3 W
UCLA -3 T
ODU +2/ML L
Clemson -3 L
Arkansas +7' W


smaller

Purdue +3' L
Miss St +10 W
Penn St +3' W
Ole Miss +7' L
Buffalo -16' L
UTSA +4 L
S Caro +6 L
Ariz St +7' W
Minny +7' W
------------------------
Rutgers +10 1H L
Virginia -10 1H L
UNC +0.5 4Q W
FIU +3' 3Q W
FIU/WKU 3Q over 12' L
Delaware P 2Q L
UTEP - 0.5 4Q W
BG -1' 4Q L
AF/Wyo OVER 40' live W


leans

Louisville w
LSU l
Utah l
FAU?
CMU w
Houston w
Wash? l
TREE?
USC
 
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added tiny

FIU +3' 3Q

* at BM - WKU D refuses to even go on the field 3Q ..... #104 scoring and allowing over NINE YARDS/RUSH (4Q is 3.5) < how ?
>> meanwhile FIU O is much stronger 3Q - 6.2/rush. If set up I'll play WKU 4Q

$$ OVER might be better - parlay small if you can

edit: I'll add another dumb play - 3Q over 12' ...... didn't think FIU would still be up
 
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bookieassassin said:
added tiny

FIU +3' 3Q

* at BM - WKU D refuses to even go on the field 3Q ..... #104 scoring and allowing over NINE YARDS/RUSH (4Q is 3.5) < how ?
>> meanwhile FIU O is much stronger 3Q - 6.2/rush. If set up I'll play WKU 4Q

$$ OVER might be better - parlay small if you can

edit: I'll add another dumb play - 3Q over 12' ...... didn't think FIU would still be up
Click to expand...
Nice 3Q play there on the +3. Good eye.
 
adding smaller

Ole Miss +7'

I don't see (many) reasons at all that Ole Miss can't compete hard here for 4Q - where's the edge? (besides the Kirby vs Lane thing ha)

These 2 are similar really - Dawgs have edges in key areas as expected : TO / field position / finishing drives / ST (Ole Miss #5 SP+ tho)

SP+ is Georgia - 2' or so - I'd put this at 5 maybe

BUT Georgia off a tough run, Ole Miss is rested:
* G - tough/physical game at Auburn (they almost lost /kinda did lose) < Kentucky < Bama L < Vol OT W
* M - home scrimmage vs Wazzu (little doubt they've been working on Georgia for 2 weeks) < BYE < home W vs LSU

A tall order for historically a weak SEC road team, but Dawgs are down a bit - Rebels a weaker team than LY probably, but I like this team more, and think they can stay within one possession, or win outright here. Smaller because I hate betting vs Kirby in a tight game - might add to it live/2H
 
adding one unit hunch
>> -110 at BM

ODU +2 / ML

Absolute monsters in this spot - the last 7X, they have been a road dog of 6 or less, they've won 5 outright (5-2 ats). I think they're the better team, and probably would be favored here (before LW Herd debacle). That game vs Indy is looking better every week - lost by 13, but ran for 218 yds (9.5/rush). Indy QB 18/32-193 - 0/0 - 6.0/attempt. Indy gifted 10 points off TO.
 
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bookieassassin said:
adding one unit hunch
>> -110 at BM

ODU +2 / ML

Absolute monsters in this spot - the last 7X, they have been a road dog of 6 or less, they've won 5 outright (5-2 ats). I think they're the better team, and probably would be favored here (before LW Herd debacle). That game vs Indy is looking better every week - lost by 13, but ran for 218 yds (9.5/rush). Indy QB 18/32-193 - 0/0 - 6.0/attempt. Indy gifted 10 points off TO.
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Rahne also perfect 9-0 ATS as a road dog off a poor performance (-5.5 points ATS or worse). Also 1-0 ATS as a road favorite in that sitch. Remarkable.
 
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UAB +11.5 1st H thoughts? If they aren't in the game at H, I dont think they have the heart to make it a game in the 2nd H.....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
UAB +11.5 1st H thoughts? If they aren't in the game at H, I dont think they have the heart to make it a game in the 2nd H.....
Click to expand...


STAY AWAY!

Or just make a very small play on UAB - (wait for 24).... or live/2H maybe
>> Memphis has USF on deck, so the strategy MUST be to get up early - cruise late. Plus their last game they started very slow.

With these coaching changes midseason it's really impossible to tell how a team reacts, especially these dogs. Agree that if they don't show early, they are unlikely to POOF! - show up late. FYI- 2Q is by far their best. BOL this week man
 
smaller

BUFFALO -16' (H)
UTSA +4 (H)
S Caro +6 (-115 BM)

small

Rutgers +10 1H (-118 BM)
Virginia -10 1H (BM)



Buffalo - just don't look at the Bulls resume (close, ugly games).....focus on UMASS , who gets crushed by everybody not named Bryant (#247 Sagarin / UMass #228) - Bulls off bye with winnable games on deck- should win (by a lot more than 16')

UTSA - expecting a slight 'burst bubble' effect for NTX, off USF beatdown. UTSA started slow last year too, then started a roll late in the year - off a huge win over Rice / bye on deck. Mean, now Lean Green .....are dangerous, but UTSA should be able to RUN/control the game / maybe win outright.

S Caro- a hunch/dart, that SC stays close or wins outright - fading OU off a shocking (to them) loss to Texas / Ole Miss on deck. Mateer's hand will still be sore as hell. Survival mode here for OU, in a one possession game.

Rutgers is tough as hell 1H - fading the Ducks early - looking to play 2H OVER (or Ducks)

Ditto Virginia - a great 1H team - off bye. Wazzu off tough road trip to Ole Miss.
 
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Pig Suey! I’m in ML +255 and +7’. Aggies are Cadillacing through this week. My two cents.

PSU might rage all over a tense Iowa squad who usually wins these by 3. ;) Thanks for sharing your intel, I’ll be tailing your Old Dom once I find the right line or wait for live. Nobody seems to notice Purdue.

Thoughts on Clemson -5’? They will protect the house. GL thx for all you do Assassin!
 
bookieassassin said:
adding one unit hunch
>> -110 at BM

ODU +2 / ML

Absolute monsters in this spot - the last 7X, they have been a road dog of 6 or less, they've won 5 outright (5-2 ats). I think they're the better team, and probably would be favored here (before LW Herd debacle). That game vs Indy is looking better every week - lost by 13, but ran for 218 yds (9.5/rush). Indy QB 18/32-193 - 0/0 - 6.0/attempt. Indy gifted 10 points off TO.
Click to expand...
Where do I sign up! Send me into battle …I’m following General. That’s the scientist at work. GL bud
 
added smaller

Minny +7'

Ariz St +7'


Since when can Nebraska beat anybody more than 7+ on the road? (2X last 13 games away) - RB Taylor RECEIVING prop might be best....

ASU is tough at home, if QB is not too limited they can stay within a possession ..... I think. Might be best to avoid betting vs TT ?
 
Wolfeman said:
Pig Suey! I’m in ML +255 and +7’. Aggies are Cadillacing through this week. My two cents.

PSU might rage all over a tense Iowa squad who usually wins these by 3. ;) Thanks for sharing your intel, I’ll be tailing your Old Dom once I find the right line or wait for live. Nobody seems to notice Purdue.

Thoughts on Clemson -5’? They will protect the house. GL thx for all you do Assassin!
Click to expand...

Aggies (historically) are terrible on the road - ODU might go to 3 briefly (2' in spots).

I'll be on Clemson probably .... not sure whether to lay the 5/5' - or wait until KO for a potential 3?? - (once he's announced as out). SMU is not good - check those boxscores - even vs Cuse (off bye ffs) - and Tree. They ain't improving at all.

BOL this week buddy
 
A sage wise owl once mentioned CAL as an underdog and not as a favorite. Had a little extra time and a lot of cold beer. So I’m throwing a pizza bet on Tarheels and chapel hill Bill. (Reserve the right to buyout live) 😂
Heels +7’ …. 1/10 unit

Hey sniper have a great day tomorrow…. Fantastic card as usual. Stack em brotha 🤙🏽
 
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small play

AF/Wyo OVER 40'

-111 at MB

Just playing the trend (little O so far) - AF has the best 2H scoring O - worst 2H D (much worse than 1H) - their 2H's average 53 points
 
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