WEEK 8

[bookieassassin]

one unit

Georgia +3'/5 W
Auburn +5 W
Bama - 2'/3 L
GT +14 L

smaller

OU -2' L
Rutgers -6 L
Cinn -2 W
TTech -6' L
WVirg +3' L
Toledo +3 W
Maryland +7' W
Neb / Indy 1H UNDER 24' L
Oregon State +7


small

Mike Gundy +7' W
Virginia +21' W
Kentucky +3
NTX +10'
ECU +16 L
Nebraska +3' 1H L
Army/ECU 1H UNDER 27 W


tiny

SA - 0.5 3Q W
Sam H 3Q P W
FIU 2Q -2 L robbery


leans
* updated 10/18

Iowa
ODU
Hogs
tulsa
michigan
hawaii
wmu
fau
ark st
miss st

 

[2dawgnation2]

Totally in for UGA on this one, BA. Played ultra-conservative intentionally this past weekend. Buy low sell high —good spot to take

Yes I’m a homer…but rarely would I be an advocate of such

 

[bookieassassin]

added smaller (BM)

Toledo +3

classic MAC situational spot - play NIU on the road as a dog - fade them the next week at home - now favored vs a team in the reverse role .... line 'should be' P - Toledo -1. Both D's match up well vs opposing O's, should be low scoring game

 

[bookieassassin]

added small

Terps +7'
NTX +10'

Gotta fade USC off a physical, late emotional OT loss at home - favored 2500 miles away (already lost 2 of these long trips) - bad road team / bad off a SU loss. Terps/ Locksley do in fact stink, but off 2 losses - should stay close in this HC game.

Memphis typically weak in this role - too many points to give the Lean Green, a solid road team (great 2H team). NTX O protects well vs havoc (Memphis D strength)

 

[Wolfeman]

Bulldogs!

LOVE that Rutgers bounce back spot…UCLA stinks. Hope it’s cold…

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Thoughts on Miami/LVille? Seems like its gonna be popular to fade the Canes off 2 crazy/lucky wins....but they went into the bye week after those....Dont think the cardinals are ready for the speed Cam Ward and crew are gonna have with fresh legs....

 

[bookieassassin]

extra small

S Ala - 0.5 3Q (+ money)

Troy D falls apart 3Q / SA makes great adjustments and comes out strong early 2H
* note Troy gets ball 1st so extra value

 

[bookieassassin]

SMALL at Heritage

ECU +16

Pirates should at least be able to compete here - off a BYE. Fading a bit lately, but typically a strong rush D / great road dog. About a 17 point swing from what the line would have been pre-season - Army O has faced the #134 SOS of opposing D's.

 

[bookieassassin]

extra small quarter trend plays ....juiced
>> scoring/rush/pass

Sam H 3Q P
FIU 2Q -2

 

[bookieassassin]

Thoughts on Miami/LVille? Seems like its gonna be popular to fade the Canes off 2 crazy/lucky wins....but they went into the bye week after those....Dont think the cardinals are ready for the speed Cam Ward and crew are gonna have with fresh legs....

Dumb coach off bye (done him no good - 0-3 ats at Miami / 9-13 career) - laying points on the October road to a great coach, also especially tough as dog (30-19 / 17 upsets) .......
>> Canes tend to get worse as season progresses (sign of a poorly coached team) - covered 1/9 October games, and FOUR of last SEVENTEEN ACC games. Better this year sure, offense can really move the ball - BUT faced the nation's #125 toughest SOS of defenses faced.

I'm obviously biased here - so I'll probably stay away - might play Louisville 1H / Miami 2H. Canes are a great 2H team - UL with backs to the wall here - played poorly at home so far, next home game is November 23. Lean OVER for sure - but both play slow.

Notes
HAVOC - UM #12 O / #3 D ...... UL #33 / #72
SP+ - UM #3 O / #34 D / #37 ST ..... UL #28 / #28/ #106
PACE - UM #97 ... UL #113
FIELD POSITION - UM #91 / UL #75
TO margin - UM #25 .... UL #57
*note UL D only has 2 INT all year - and ranks #115 in sack % (3.7%) - UM protects well (#25)

 

[Wolfeman]

How about Corn getting 6.5 @ Indiana?

 

[bookieassassin]

added smaller

Nebraska / Indy 1H under 24'

Full game might be better, I like 1H usually - here both O's should start slow - both off bye, and play slow (N #103 / I #88).
>> Husker O stinks - can't run or throw really - Indy hasn't faced a D like this yet (# 132 SOS opposing D's) - Huskers #1 D SP+ (overrated surely but tough)

Think I'll add Nebraska +3' / ML 1H too small

 

[bookieassassin]

How about Corn getting 6.5 @ Indiana?

Small play only - I'm not sure Huskers can keep up here .......+3' 1H maybe better?

Check out what Rutgers D gave up to Wisky, Wash, VT, etc - check out what Illinois gave up to CMU,Purdue,KU, Penn St - Huskers running game shut down in both. QB struggles under pressure - Indy gets penetration and can bring pressure. Note Indy with a MASSIVE ST edge (#1 vs #126) - Husker K has been hurt too. Could be key in a lower scoring game .......plus Indy has a nice edge in FP (field position > underrated stat) - #27 vs #68 - Indy D at #18/ UN O #82.

$ I look for Huskers to stay close in a low scoring 1H - Indy to take charge late - (maybe) pull away ...... BOL this weekend buddy

Note Matt Rhule IS tough as hell historically in this spot ......

 

[bookieassassin]

small play - juiced at BM

Army/ECU 1H UNDER 27

* just a HUNCH ECU off a bye - is able to get their RUN D fixed for awhile anyway - ECU O should struggle to move it vs Army D - Army should pull away late.
>> kinda liking ECU +10 1H (BM) more than 16/16' for game

 

[bookieassassin]

Been staring at this one for awhile - line is so weird I've backed off - juiced at Heritage / BO

Oregon State +7

Beavs lost at Nevada yes - but moved the ball great/ had 4TO's .... Rebels faced 91 plays on the road at Utah State, and gave up almost 600 yards - they have Boise in 6 days - line should be 3/4 tops.

 

[HairOfTheDog]

Been staring at this one for awhile - line is so weird I've backed off - juiced at Heritage / BO

Oregon State +7

Beavs lost at Nevada yes - but moved the ball great/ had 4TO's .... Rebels faced 91 plays on the road at Utah State, and gave up almost 600 yards - they have Boise in 6 days - line should be 3/4 tops.

Surprised this wasn't on your leans list earlier in the week BA.

 

[Wolfeman]

Small play only - I'm not sure Huskers can keep up here .......+3' 1H maybe better?

Check out what Rutgers D gave up to Wisky, Wash, VT, etc - check out what Illinois gave up to CMU,Purdue,KU, Penn St - Huskers running game shut down in both. QB struggles under pressure - Indy gets penetration and can bring pressure. Note Indy with a MASSIVE ST edge (#1 vs #126) - Husker K has been hurt too. Could be key in a lower scoring game .......plus Indy has a nice edge in FP (field position > underrated stat) - #27 vs #68 - Indy D at #18/ UN O #82.

$ I look for Huskers to stay close in a low scoring 1H - Indy to take charge late - (maybe) pull away ...... BOL this weekend buddy

Note Matt Rhule IS tough as hell historically in this spot ......

A Genius at work…. Mahalos Boss

 

[satnightfever05]

Been staring at this one for awhile - line is so weird I've backed off - juiced at Heritage / BO

Oregon State +7

Beavs lost at Nevada yes - but moved the ball great/ had 4TO's .... Rebels faced 91 plays on the road at Utah State, and gave up almost 600 yards - they have Boise in 6 days - line should be 3/4 tops.

with ya here too.. actually think in game might be better and grab OSU + double digits if UNLV gets off to good start

 

[Wolfeman]

SMALL at Heritage

ECU +16

Pirates should at least be able to compete here - off a BYE. Fading a bit lately, but typically a strong rush D / great road dog. About a 17 point swing from what the line would have been pre-season - Army O has faced the #134 SOS of opposing D's.

This line is ridiculous imo .. I’m staring at +17 … good stuff on the 1H under

 

[bookieassassin]

This line is ridiculous imo .. I’m staring at +17 … good stuff on the 1H under

Yep getting killed on line movement this week - thanks for the reminder ha......


Georgia Tech just leaped to the top of my leans - waiting for 14' - maybe 16 or more by kickoff. Don't like fading the Irish away from home, otherwise GT would be a huge play here. UNDER might be the way to go?

"Play ON the team with the injured player (1st game) - fade the next".

Works most every time - as Irish money rolls in - "Wow GT is gonna get killed !!!!!" Other team relaxes a bit - team with out player really goes hard. Think Lou Holtz - 77-78 Orange Bowl (I had the Hogs for $5 ha)


added at BM

Auburn. +5

Dumb - low value - straight hunch play 100% - fading Mizzou really - faith in Hugh Freeze to keep this close, off bye - Mizzou in weird : at UMass / Alabama sammich

 

[bookieassassin]

added

GT +14

Still waiting on 14' - will probably play the 14 smaller / add to it at 14', live maybe.

Bumped up Bama at 3 - looking for 2' - will add to it live/2H