Week 8 Thoughts

[E.T.G.]

Favorites: 10-12
Dogs: 8-3
Totals: 0-3
ML Parlay: 1-1
Overall: 19-19 +1.67units
SouthCar: 2-1



Update this later, early leans:

NCST +11.5 - gota check injuries
TCU ML - this is just initial lean, have to look much deeper
UVA +5.5 - playing real strong at home lately, running the ball real well, line is going up
NoIlly -7.5 - Toledo letdown
Oregon St -14 - Wash team in shambles
Cal PK - discussed in Kyles thread
Baylor +17 - Okie St letdown


Have a few other games I'm on the fence about

 

[TroyStacks]

cal/az seems tough. I lean Cal as they are the better team statistically but a lot of the P10 guys are saying AZ

 

[JPicks]

starting to lean more towards BYU as the week goes along, but i doubt I'll play them. GL this week man.

 

[tee*dub]

liking VA and Bay from this list..GL

 

[vdub88]

Anyone have any thoughtson USC -43?? Wash st is horrible but that's a lot to cover.

 

[Wolfpack17]

etg..we should be getting cash and probably cash back this week. This is huge for our defense and i think we cover this dd number.

 

[Wolfpack17]

From my personal observations after practice Nate Irving was dressed but wearing the green jersey. Cash was dressed and had no green jersey

and i meant to say nate irving above.

 

[broadwayjoe]

may play baylor myself..played tcu and lean n ill as well. gl this week

 

[Wolfpack17]

cash and crouch are back
irving probable

 

[E.T.G.]

Wolfpack - Thank you for the updates on the injuries. Really would like to have Irving out there.

Broadway - glad to see we are thinking alike this wk, best of luck

VDub88 - I love chalk and I know Wazzu sucks ass but I'm not one to lay 43 on the road in conference (Wazzu is actually a D3 team this yr) anyway, I just can't pull the trigger on that but I am still looking at maybe a 1st half play but likely no value.

Teedub - Thanks and best of luck to u

JPicks - Awesome thread and discussion u got going on the BYU game. Really tough friggen game to pick

Troy - Its a game I've been going back and forth on in the sense of to play Cal or not to play Cal. I liked them a lot more when I didn't have to lay 2 points. I thought the line was moving towards Zona earlier in the week.



I have enough time tonight to square away my thoughts for the most part on the week, be back in a little bit with some games

 

[hilldog11]

GL ETG Leanin your way on a lot of those, just got to narrowing down to do. But I really like ncst, ore st, and baylor.

 

[E.T.G.]

Favorites: 10-12
Dogs: 8-3
Totals: 0-3
ML Parlay: 1-1
Overall: 19-19 +1.67units
SouthCar: 2-1


Baylor +17 (2units):

I thought about playing both Ok St and Baylor last week and I am kicking myself today but anyway, this is your classic "letdown" & "sandwich" game all in one... Yes, this is a homecoming game but its also a day game and I think an early kickoff helps me with the dog in this game. There is no friggen way in this world, Ok St at 6-0 and ranked in the top 10, is even thinking about Baylor after the upset of Mizz and Texas on deck, the current #1 team in the country. Ok St TE Pettigrew is "Questionable" with an ankle injury, if the coaches are smart and thinking about the season, they won't let him hurt it further against Baylor. This situation couldn't be better for Baylor and I know Ok St is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year but I HAVE to take my chances in this one w/ an improving Baylor team who can score a few points.


UVA +180 (1 to win 1.8)
UVA +5 (2units)
Going outside my normal 2 units here, just a strong feeling I have about this game as far as UVA winning but didn't want to lose this game if it came down to a field goal. Discussed this a little bit in Horses thread so this is just a copy and paste:

I like what Groh has done with this team the last 2 weeks (granted, Maryland never got off the bus and ECU fell off) BUT they are very solid at home under Groh, and they've found some balance on offense. They imo will be able to run the ball on UNC and a successful run game can you take you a long way.. UNC should of outright lost that game but ND kept killing themselves ( 5turnovers-outgained by 150)... I'm not sure you can state how big the loss of Tate will be as this year continues. Hicks is a very good WR, but right now, he is all they got. Tate and Nicks complement each other because you can't key on either one or the other will beat you. Now, I double Tate and make someone else step up that is unproven and not as talented (Foster?) I think UVA is a dangerous dangerous team here for UNC and I think UVA gets the outright win and continues to stay hot. UVA was a team I was fine with fading to start the year and I still won't take them on the road but at home where they are known to play very good football, I think I have to bite, especially with a team laying points on the road without their best play maker and using their 2nd string QB. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[RetroVK]

Nice capping ETG .... uva and baylor are both in good spots i think too. Agree with your assessment of tate loss as well. also prior to nd win , unc had sort of fortunate flukish wins vs uconn with a couple of blocked punts and maimi florida with a slew of late interceptions. Team might be a tad overrated at this point.

great thread as per usual.

look forward to rest of card.

 

[E.T.G.]

Nice capping ETG .... uva and baylor are both in good spots i think too. Agree with your assessment of tate loss as well. also prior to nd win , unc had sort of fortunate flukish wins vs uconn with a couple of blocked punts and maimi florida with a slew of late interceptions. Team might be a tad overrated at this point.

great thread as per usual.

look forward to rest of card.

My season has been iffy at best but feel like I'm getting better recognizing different situations and my feel for the games I like is changing. Hope I can continue to hit some dogs in good spots.

I didn't want to use the word "overrated", but yes, that is the thought in my head and why I want a piece of the ML this week but also would be pretty pissed off if I got burned and UVA lost by 4.

 

[E.T.G.]

NC ST +11:

Not a play yet, still thinking about it. I believe on the year I am 3-0 on NCST games (SC, USF, ECU) and I feel like I have a good grasp on them. Carter Finnley is no easy place to play, especially at night and NCST, despite the injuries they've had is showing improvement. Home teams mid-week continue to be very strong as well. Obviously, I lost a few points from the opening line. NCST has to get their 2-headed rushing attack going to make life easier for Wilson but FSU has been stout against the run this yr. You HAVE to contain Ponder running the ball cause when he throws it, he ain't that good but he is averaging almost 7ypc on the year, not having Nate Irving in this game would hurt but I see there is A 75% chance he will play and NCST also gets back their DT Cash. NCST has seen Grothe and Pickney in the last 3 games they've played so this won't be the first QB who can run. I also don't like that FSU has shown a strong running game this year and NCST has not been able to really contain the rush. Still a bit unsure about this, would like to see the line rise back up though, doubt it happens.

No Illy -8:
Again, not a play get, I know this game is mentioned in a few other threads so I can be short here. After Toledo won the Mich game, the first thought that came to mind was a huge letdown. The Toledo players are probably still patting themselves on the back, meanwhile NIU was embarrassed, slapped around, humiliated, and destroyed by Toledo 70-21 last yr and they get them on homecoming this year.. Nicholson, the orginal starting QB for NoIlly is expected to start this week. I believe NoIlly will have a lot of success on the ground in this game against Toledo. Toledo is due for a loss here, they have won 9 of the last 10.

Oregon St -14 (2units)
You have to come away somewhat impressed with the last 4 games OSU has played, meanwhile Washington is as done as Ty Willingham. I'm not sure how any team who gives up an average of 230 yards rushing per game is going to stop a successful running game like Oregon St who is almost at 200ypg on the ground over their last 3. Washington without Locker is a lost cause as they have shown the last 3 games...Their playing a team who has taken back their season after a rocky 0-2 start. I look for Oregon St to continue improving here and Washington, even though they are off a bye, to continue free falling.

 

[Timh]

GL this week ETG.

 

[E.T.G.]

thanks tim.


I am not getting involved in the thursday night events, I will be drinking and watching

 

[Wolfpack17]

Cheer for the pack at least there etg! John wall the #2 player in the nation in 2009 will be there in bball and derrick favors the #1 player will be there tomorrow-sunday. Big weekend for hoops and hopefully we start it out right with a win tonight.

 

[E.T.G.]

Cheer for the pack at least there etg! John wall the #2 player in the nation in 2009 will be there in bball and derrick favors the #1 player will be there tomorrow-sunday. Big weekend for hoops and hopefully we start it out right with a win tonight.

Wolfpack, no worries, I will root for you guys. I feel bad about the way your season has gone, specially with all of the injuries and since I spent so much time in the summer learning about your squad, I have been keeping up with them. I am a bit too concerned they won't be able to get it going on the ground versus FSU tonight, figured best to lay off. GL

 

[buckeyeburritos]

i thought u were a fsu fan etg

 

[E.T.G.]

hahah Buckeye, well I should of been an FSU student and always liked them as a kid but I'm rooting for the Dog tonight... I just feel bad for the NCST team.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

hahah Buckeye, well I should of been an FSU student and always liked them as a kid but I'm rooting for the Dog tonight... I just feel bad for the NCST team.

boo, i've always been a fsu fan since i was younger too, i'll be rooting for the noles haha

 

[E.T.G.]

I'm not happy I got beat on some lines (NoIlly, Cal), did get Oregon St in before Bob and UVA looks like it heading down some. Still perplexed at how SC is still dropping, this game has to get hit with some LSU money tomorrow. Also looks like my two original leans for Thursday both hit and I didn't play them, least I can be happy I had the right idea, hope it continues that way.



Cal -2.5 (2units):

Discussed this game pretty in-depth in VK's thread


Texas -4 (2units):

Hopefully I can thank Bob after the game for dropping this line and making it a play. This game is basically a PK on a neutral field? No way in hell.


Penn St -14 (1st half) (2units):

12 years of pain will be forgotten when this game ends. PSU spread should give Mich all types of problems. PSU dominates the trenches, wish this was a night game but see Mich getting blown out.



Recap:

Baylor +17 (2units)
UVA +180 (1 to win 1.8)
UVA +5 (2units)
Oregon St -14 (2units)
Cal -2.5 (2units)
Texas -4 (2units)
PSU -14 first half (2units)


Got a few more I am looking to add

 

[RetroVK]

need those cavs aye ???

i went ahead and pulled the trigger and bought to the 3 etg. not sure its the right math play but i like being done for the week hehe. ... waiting for the +3 might be like waiting to see the unicorn get ridden by a leprechaun....

 

[E.T.G.]

need those cavs aye ???

i went ahead and pulled the trigger and bought to the 3 etg. not sure its the right math play but i like being done for the week hehe. ... waiting for the +3 might be like waiting to see the unicorn get ridden by a
leprechaun....

UVA would be a nice hit, I just feel like they can win SU. UNC's last 2 games are bullshit. 5 turnovers from ND, they block 3 punts against UConn and together in both of those games, they were outgained by a total of 265yds. Both of those games were at home too.

Well I'm just pissed the ML is +115, I mean what the hell. I likely wouldn't take the points if I played this game and just take the ML. I will say, the OVER in this game is growing on me, it might be a decision I make later tonight, I see some points being scored in this game.