Week 8, "The Ocho"

Inspekdah

My man, Scottie Scheffler!
RECAP:Well last week did not go as planned as I had problem transferring money between books and was left with almost none in my Greek account and waiting on funds to hit my Pinny. Luckily I threw $100 5 team Parlay in that hit for around 22-1. Giving me some money to play with while my bankroll should hit Pinny anyday now. Would have been a profitable day (although I don't know if I would have made 2 g's so maybe this is better). So my record is the same as it was through Week 6...despite wishing it wasn't because I hit right around 60% on the picks from my Week 7 topic.


'06 Record

21-13 (62%) +13.60 UNITS , +$2,720.00



Locked in plays. All -110 unless specified differently.

Pitt -6.5 -105 2.5 Units -LOSER-
This # stuck out to me. At first I saw this as an impressive amount of points for a sound Rutgers squad to take. Kind of following Rutgers closely though I realized they've really never played from behind this season and rely heavily on the running game. If Pitt can get up 7-0, 10-0 and force Rutgers into being one-dimensional... it won't matter what type of number they are getting... b/c Pitt will cover. Rutgers' TD/INT ratio is poor... I just don't like them to hang tough here... Rice would have to have a career game and Pitt's defense is the best he will see all season long.

Wisconsin -5.5 2 Units -WINNER-
Wisconsin is just not getting enough respect from the books... they are a damn good football team.. perhaps top 10 IMO. You all saw what type of caliber team this is with what they did to Auburn last year. Now they have one of the top 5 backs in the nation pounding it away in Hill. Stocco has impressed me thus far but the Wisky D is why they cover here. Only team to really compete with Michigan through half time this season too...Purdue's defense just cannot get it done here... and they won't pile on enough points to cover. I will middle for possibly a half unit if I can eventually catch 7, 7.5.

N.D -12.5 2 UNITS -LOSER-
This aint the UCLA of year's past. With Olsen out points are not comming easily.. and putting up 20, including the last 7 being a moose score against Oregon didn't show me much. N.D at home after a week off.. I expect to be very sharp... plus BCS rankings comming out is motivation for guys like Weiss and B Quinn.. I expect a 38-17 type affair.


OREGON ST. -2.5 -115 2 UNITS
See Killa's write-up. He knows/says more about this better than I ever could. Zona is not playing well right now but Ore St. seems to be making some progress... especially defensively.

TULSA -12.5 1 UNIT
TULSA -13.5 1 UNIT (2 UNITS TOTAL NOW)
Memphis just does not seem able to score enough points to be able to stay with anyone. Fading them is never a bad plan. A big # to chalk on the road but feel like Memphis isn't as good as ECU.. and look what Tulsa just did to them and their so called efficient defense. Watched Tulsa take my money a few weeks ago on a weeknight game... going to hopefully get it back here. Line is moving quick making me think this is the right side.

ARIZONA ST. -23 2 UNITS -WINNER-
Agree here with Redbearde that fading Stanford is a must. This team has absolutely no confidence and AZST looks like it found some offense last week. I expect them to score while Stanford would have breakout on offense if they put up double-digit points. This may be the best 20+ chalk on the board..

TENNESEE -11 2 UNITS -LOSER-
Alabama's offense is horrendous. They will be up for this game though... but I do not think they can hang. Fade made some great points on this one and I think Bama is in over their heads here vs. an offense that is rolling. Tenny embarassed the GA d on the road and will embarass Bama at home. 11 is not enough.

WEEKDAY PLAY/S: 3-1 +1.4 units

BOWLING GREEN +7.5 1 UNIT -Loser-

N.C./VIRGINIA UNDER 42 1 UNIT -Winner-

B.G/CMU UNDER 50 1/2 UNIT -Winner-

WVU -23.5 1 UNIT -WINNER-

GAMEDAY ADDITIONS::36_19_2:1-2 (-0.1 units)

PENN ST 1H -10 1/2 UNIT -LOSER-
PENN ST. -17.5 1/2 UNIT -LOSER-

Illinois in order to score needs to establish the running game. They won't be able to here... and they won't be able to stop PSU's running attack. They stopped Mich's running attack for the most part and held them to 17 points. This aint Michigan's run attack and this aint Mich's run defense. These kind of games are confidence builders for Morelli and company. I expect PSU's defense to give the offense great field position early and limit/hold Illinois to little or zero points. The total tells me PSU is going to score here and there... and that's all I need because passing on the road against PSU is a little tougher than Michigan State. Final... 34-10 (late score for Illinois in 4th)

LOUISVILLE -10 -105 2H 1 UNIT -WINNER-


Louisville's settled in... should cover this easy number in what is now a close game.

FSU -6 5 UNITS

Clemson -7 4 UNITS

Finally got it at the number I wanted. Liked this play all week long... should be a good one.

NMST +20.5 1/2 UNIT










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Also tailed Hunt with a
$50 (1/4 Unit) to win $225 play on Colorado ML. More plays and in depth writeups comming shortly.
 
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We have like minds, I having been eyeing up Tulsa as well..

More than likely going to be on Pitt & Wisky..

Killa got be interested in Oregon St this week...

GOOD LUCK!
 
thanks green, hopefully our minds will lead us to a profitable week. I usually like a play or two that everyone on here likes... after that I just tail the strongest plays from some of the better cappers on here... do a little research and try to find a gem or two... so on that note...


Adding:

Arizona St. -23 2 Units
 
with ya on Wisky and ND, inspekdah.

BOL w/ the pac-10 plays. i'm a pac-10 guy, but jsut not liking this week...at least the lines in the conf games. Wish you lots of luck though.
 
BOL on your card

The Pitt Panthers are my team and I hope they make you some cash. Their offense has been on fire and Palko is playing out of his mind. But, we have not seen a runner the caliber of Rice. That is gonna be the key. Stop Rice and roll.

Hail to Pitt !!!
 
GL Inspekdah. I have the games within 3 points of the line on Wisconsin and Notre Dame. GL there. FWIW, I could make a case for Pitt and Arizona State based on my numbers.

I am on Oregon State with you.

Check out Toledo and Rice.
 
thx yanks26, RSM, dolish..:shake:


larice thats good.. because if I can get a decent # on ND +14.5 I was going to try for the 13 or 14 pt middle... I have a feeling it will be right around the # just like the line with Purdue was.
 
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Yes very chalky. Could not get a good line on Duke and will probably add Rice. Not worried about the home chalks... Pitt, N.D, Zona St. but those roaddies.. Wisky, and Ore St. Trusting some of the other cappers on here and think a winning card can emerage out of this.

thanks guys

:shake:


ADDED:

BOWLING GREEN +7.5 1 UNIT

Like the dog here. BG better against the pass than the run from what I can tell. Jump has a write-up pending I'm eager to see... just taking a stab here for some action. NC/Virg. is off the board right now for me and I'm leaning towards the under there.
 
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Thanks pags, Jump, TWITA.:shake:

Card for tonight. 2 Unders and 1 Road dogg... Updated above.
 
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Added WVU -23.5 1 UNIT

Check BAR's thread.. also Sooner's feelings on this one. Nothing I can add other than I like the conditions tonight for a slaughtering.
 
You and I are on a lot of the same games and I even like the plays you have posted that I am not on as I leaned in those directions as well. Good luck, dude!
stpatrick2.gif
 
Thanks Soonz, hopefully some of these "similar" plays hit and I hit half of the others... I'd take that..:shake:

Looking to grab 7 tomorrow on the ol' Clemson Tigers if I can... at Greek heavily. Possibly up to 5 units... but too expensive right now at -120. Love this play... Clemson IMO is one of the better teams in the country and at home are one of the best, bar none. They will score and Ball on the road may have exposed VT... but won't be able to match Clemson point for point. It's late enough in the day that I can see how I'm doing and make a decision as to exactly how large I want to make it.

Added a small early play on PSU.
 
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PSU play looks like a real dud...

Louisville -10 -105 2nd Half for 1 Unit Added

Should be settled in now... been watching the game... like them to win by 14+
 
Running out for a few hours to the bar....

Adding Fresno 2H +14 2.5 Units -LOSER-

Should only be down 10-3... good defense... coach seems to want to stay with running game... means won't get too aggressive... like the moose cover here.

Cinnci -1 -105 3 Units

just because.. take the small home fav here in the cold... fade the FL boys up north...
 
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