Week 8 Ramblings

[Br@ssknux]

Went 7-7-1 last week in the first week I ever threw any thoughts down here as far as my own plays. Thanks for the feedback as always.

I'll be updating this thread as I add plays to it.


So far:

1.Miami(FL) -8 @ North Carolina: When I first looked at this spread I was a little surprised to see it this high, but after a closer look, it's justified. I'm not sure what UNC is going to do at QB...in their last game at VT, Fedora pulled a surprise and sat Renner, going with the mobile youngster Marquise Williams, who actually had about as solid a game as anyone has had against the Hokies this year. Having said that, they had no clue he was playing, and were caught off guard by his dual threat style. Regardless of who is playing QB, UNC can't run the ball, and in one of the upsets of the early CFB season, Miami has been very good against the pass, ranked 7th in PE against. Offensively, Miami has been a fine tuned machine, ranked in the top 15 in the country in just about every category and they have Duke Johnson, who can score any time he touches the ball. Miami also has a huge edge on special teams, especially in the return game, as they are ranked 1st in KO returns while UNC is near the bottom of the barrel there. As for the Thursday home dog angle, UNC likely will have very little HFA, as they are 1-4 with the students already looking toward BB season. The last time they were at home, they were trounced by ECU. They've actually played better on the road. We also can't forget Al Golden's ATS record in conference. (Now 13-3-1).

 

[Br@ssknux]

Well, not a good start. Losing Johnson and the WR didn't help Miami's case last night. Oh well...on to the rest. I'll have more later tonight for those who care.


2. @Michigan St -27.5 v Purdue: The fade Purdue train continues, now with the added bonus of watching the high comedy of a limited true freshman with a bunch of stiffs on his team making his first road start aghainst a top 5 defense. That should be fun. Also remember that Purdue's defensive rankings hover around the 100 mark in all areas, and that Connor Cook has had two good offensive weeks in a row. If they changed the rules for this game and made MSU punt or kick a FG on first down on every possession, and just match up their defense with Purdue's offense, the Spartans would probably win about 17-3.

3. @Northwestern -12 v Minnesota: One other thing I'll mention before I get into this one: Jerry Kill(who I think is a fine football coach) needs to fucking retire. He can't function like this, and every day that he strings Minnesota's program along hurts their program. Listen, I know the guy has a disease that isn't his fault, but Minnesota has a part time football coach now, and that simply does not work. The Minnesota administration can't do anything about it because they'd likely get their asses sued to kingdom come if they tried to make a move. It is not fair to the players there or to the program as a whole to not know day to day whether your coach is going to be convulsing on the sideline or not. They need a full time coach, or they are goiong nowhere fast. Kill needs to realize that his ailment does not allow him to be a college football coach, and do the right thing and retire........As for the game, Fitzy and the boys are due for a bounceback after the two bad results they've had recently. believe it or not, they are on a 4 game ATS losing streak, which is almost unheard of under this staff. The only area that Minnesota might make some hay in this game is if they run it effectively, which they might be able to do, but they are going to have all kinds of problems stopping the Cats offense in this one as they are 94th in the country in ypp. I think the Cats will win this one comfortably.

4. @West Virginia +5.5 v Texas Tech: This line has come way down from 8, so I almost left it off on principle, but I really think Tech is due for a loss. Kliff Kingsbury's boys come in undefeated, but that's of course a function of their schedule more than anything else. Their only road tilt has been at Kansas, which they had no trouble with, but this will be a different situation. It's a long trip back east, the first one for Tech, and the 'Eers have already shown their teeth at home with the upset of Okie St as a 19 point dog. Regardless of who Texas Tech plays at QB, it's going to be a freshman, and that will be a tough task. West Virginia is coming off a bye and was crushed last year in Lubbock when they were undefeated, so the Mountaineers are playing with revenge. TT also has Oklahoma on deck, so this shapes up as a bit of a bad spot for them. More of a play against Tech going undefeated through 7 games, but I think the Mountaineers have a great shot at the outright here.

5. @Memphis -3.5 v SMU: Memphis has kind of become my pet team because I've seen how they have had some terrible luck recently, and I think it's due to turn around for them. Memphis is 1-4 but they easily could have won at least 2 other games, and their defense is certainly legit, having held Houston in check pretty much all game last week. The matchup for SMU is bad. I'd be surprised if SMU has positive rushing yards n the game, and the Tigers have been very good against the pass as well. Garrett Gilbert burned me to a crisp in the comeback vs Rutgers, but i am still not convinced on him and I think a solid defense like Memphis will result in Gilbert getting back to his rightful place as a below average QB. Defensively, SMU is terrible, so maybe the Memphis offense can find a way to finish some drives with TDs instead of 5 FGs again and get themselves some breathing room.

6. Army +3 (buy if necessary) @ Temple: At first glance, you might say, "Army is on the road and I'm only getting 3?" Well, yeah, and it;s a good play because they're better than Temple. temple is 0 for the season asnd is favored over a team that's already got 3 wins under it's belt. Before you criticize Army's wins (EMU, Lou tech and Morgan St) remember that Temple's got L's against Fordham and Idaho. The Oels have been outgained on the year by 162 yards per game, including being outgained by Fordham 530-385. Their defense is atrocious, especially against the run, ranked 100th in ypc, while the Knights are among the leaders in the nation in running the ball(7th in ypc) and leading the country in yards per game. Army's defense is also poor, but Temple can't throw the ball to save their lives and have only a pedestrian running game. Even with that defense, Army has managed to outgain their opponents on the year (419-402 per game). the wrong team is favored in this one IMO.

7. UCLA +6 @Stanford: Most people will probably expect Stanford to come back home to the Farm and bounce back from their loss to Utah last week, but I really think UCLA is better than them after looking at the numbers. Defensively, UCLA is very underrated, ranked 8th in the country in yards per play. I think they will more than hold their own in this game especially since Stanford has had a hard time getting it's run game going. In addition, Stanford has been only ok on defense, which is a bit surprising since I thought they might have the best defense in the country coming back from last year. I think UCLA is going to be able to throw on their defense, and the Bruins are very adept on 3rd down, bith offensively and defensively. This one is going to come down to the wire as I'm sure my guy Jim Mora Jr will have a solid plan. UCLA has a great shot to give Stanford a 2 game losing streak. UCLA played the Cardinal tough as nails twice last year, so they should have confidence.

 

[Elbutre88]

w/you on UCLA. gl this week.

 

[gps_3]

With you on UCLA and West by God. Not against on the rest, so hope you sweep

 

[CollegeKingRex]

good thoughts, GL the rest of the weekend...

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks for thoughts, good luck.

Not sure Duke is enough to win that last night. The kid who replaced him was the best player on the field on either side of the ball for Miami. UNC should have won that game going away but they just find ways to lose. The clock management by UNC was ridiculous as well. I realize Duke may make a play in there somewhere for 70 yards that the other guy doesn't ( special player ) but doubt he runs for 350! Though argument could be made they would have had to focus more on rush defense ( or that replacement massive yards were a result of not allowing pass ). Tip of the cap to Miami for winning a game in which they played really poorly.

Your Army thoughts .... tend to agree.. might join.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff man, thanks for posting!

 

[Br@ssknux]

VK......

Definitely not suggesting that they win with Duke. his explosiveness hurt from a covering standpoint(need quick strikes) but yeah, they could have lost. Agree with you on the hat tip to the canes, they had two of their best skill guys get hurt, they played poorly, and had their QB throw 4 picks yet still found a way to win on the road. Also tells me that it might have been the right side had the canes given their normal effort. Might being the key word. If a team plays that poorly and has putrid QB play while their best skill guys were hurt, you'd think they'd miss the cover by more than a score.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Holy shit are there a lot of typos in that mess up there. Sorry boys

 

[RetroVK]

VK......

Definitely not suggesting that they win with Duke. his explosiveness hurt from a covering standpoint(need quick strikes) but yeah, they could have lost. Agree with you on the hat tip to the canes, they had two of their best skill guys get hurt, they played poorly, and had their QB throw 4 picks yet still found a way to win on the road. Also tells me that it might have been the right side had the canes given their normal effort. Might being the key word. If a team plays that poorly and has putrid QB play while their best skill guys were hurt, you'd think they'd miss the cover by more than a score.

Could be but they also got a ten point play in the game on a blocked FG. With that said .. thought UNC played well, thought Miami played poor and Miami still just needed a TD more to cover so your point is well made.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Auburn +14 @ Texas A&M: Well, I've been burned two weeks in a row on A&M as I figured they'd cover both of those road games, much like they did when Manziel led a scorched earth tour of the SEC JV last year. Alas, it was not to be. Now they are back home and laying 14 to an Aubun team that looks to me to a be a scrappy bunch that has had some good fortune since Guz Malzahn has returned. Auburn also runs the ball effectively, even if you throw out their 511 yard rushing performance of last week against Western Carolina. That's bad news for A&M, who ranks 117th against the run and by the looks of their recent performances, couldn't stop the Golden Girls if they lined up in the T formation. Defensively, Auburn will of course have difficulty stopping that maniac Manziel, but like I've said many times before, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop the other guy from scoring.

9. @Houston +10 (buy it) v BYU: Houston's defense is actually pretty good this year, and although BYU looks to be improving on offense, they still struggle to move the ball if the run game is taken from them. Houston ranks 25th in the country in stopping the run, and they've been turnover machines on that side of the ball, bad news for BYU, who have turned it over 11 times in 6 games. Both defenses are going to have the advantage in this game, and I cap it pretty close, although BYU has played a tougher schedule. Given that both of these defenses will throw their weight around, I think the 10 points is pretty valuable. Throw in the fact that Houston is sure to be motivated given that they are undefeated and it's been noticed by absolutely nobody(not that they should be, based on their schedule, but you get the point). I'll take the motivated hometown dog with the points here. BYU has Boise on deck this coming Friday, so it's likely they are looking ahead to the short week. They'll get Houston's top effort, but I don't think the Cougs will get theirs.

10. Duke +3 @Virginia: Again, buy it if necessary. I just think Duke is substantially the better team here. Virginia's chance to avoid at a total collapse went by the wayside last week at Maryland, and it looks like London is a dead man walking. UVA has proven succeptible to competent passing attacks and Duke fills that bill under Cutcliffe, regardless of who's under center. believe it or not, since Cutcliffe has been there, Duke has won 4 out of the last 5 outight, all as a dog. The bell tolls for thee, Mike London.

 

[Play2win]

Agree Ucla, lean West Vag and Army...GL this week :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Michigan -9.5 v Indiana: In a previous life, I would have over-thought this one and tried to make a case for the dog here, but the situation is terrible for Indiana, despite my admiration for their offense. This IU program still doesn't know how to win the truly important games, and certainly not on the road. Defensively, they don't have what is needed to be successful against Devin Gardner, namely a ballhawking, aggressive high pressure defense that can cause turnovers. They are also playing their second consecutive road game, and Michigan is coming back home off of a tough loss, so IU will have their full attention...assuming hoke is competent enough to help them see the light. Defensively, Michigan has been solid, both against the run and the pass. IU won't be able to get off the field on defense. I see this one as a 44-24 type ballgame.

12. USC +3 @Notre Dame: Teh problem that Notre Dame runs into almost every home game is that they get the opponent's best effort. Everyone gets excited to come into South Bend, I'm sure that USC will be no different this week. The one thing Ed Orgeron can do, other than grunt, is somehow motivate impressionable young men. USC looks like a different team since Kiffin got the boot, and Marqise Lee is back from injury this week. ND will have to put together an inspired, tight performance, and as long as Rees is taking the snaps and that secondary is trying to "cover" people, they are unlikely to get one. I like USC straight up here. Paste this url for a laugh, speaking of Coach O. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n1KPQmdddY

13. Wisconsin -13 @Illinois: This line was at 10.5 this morning and is flying up the flagpole, and in my opinion, with good reason. Illinois is 106th in total defense, 111th against the run and 97th against the pass. Unfortunately for the Illini, the Zooker was unable to commandeer any DTs or safeties in his last couple of recruiting classes, so they are embarrassingly undermanned in those spots. Wisconsin, with their wrecking crew running game, is the worst possible matchup for that defense. Illinois starting strong safety is a kid named Taylor Barton. I'm sure he's a nice kid, and he looks the part as a college safety because he's big and athletic, but he might be the worst tackler I have ever seen. Unfortunately(again) for the Illini, he is the guy that is usually filling the hole in the run game. It's led to disastrous results
in the Washington and Nebraska games, and it's going to happen again this week. Offensively, Illinois is obviously miles better than they were last year, but if Scheelhaase gets happy feet again, they are going to be settling for Fgs while Wisconsin is ringing up TDs, if they are even that lucky. I'll be surprised if the Badgers score less than 45, and 24 would be a good scoring total for Illinois. Don't forget that the Badgers rank 7th overall in ypp on defense.

14. Florida St -3 @Clemson: FSU is favored for a reason, and I think they'll show you why this week. both of these offenses are a nightmare to play against, but i think FSU's defense is significantly better than Clemson's, and I think the Tigers are going to be made very one dimensional by the Noles run defense. Not so for Clemson, as the Tigers have been gashed repeatedly on the ground this year and rank only 76th against the run. FSu sis also more likely to sustain drives and has an advantage on both lines. I think Jameis Winston is going to be the story coming out of this one, and so will the FSU running game. Look for some big runs for the Noles.

15 Oregon State -10.5 @ Cal: Cal can't stop a soul on defense, especially in the passing game, and as I mentioned last week, Sean Mannion is playing like one of the top 5 Qbs in the country and his pal Brandin Cooks might be the best receiver in the nation. cal has no shot at stopping them, and although they've run a lot of plays on offense, they are only averaging 5.0 yards per play. OSU is actually ranked 15th in pass efficiency against, so even their strength will be neutralized. OSU is flying completely under the radar, but they are a very solid Pac-12 team. This one should be a blowout.

other also rans: I've sworn off the MAC for the most part due to the craziness of last week(and all of MAC history, really)
but Ball State (-20) should clobber Western Michigan. PJ Fleck is proving to be in over his head at WMU it appears....I like Tennessee to keep it close (+7.5) at home against the OBC and the Gamecocks. 2nd straight roadie for SC and UT off a bye as they improve week by week.... I don't trust North Texas as a road favorite, and Louisiana Tech looks to be at worst their statistical match, so I'll take the points with the home dog(+4)....If i could get another half point, I'd really like Mizzou(+3). Maty Mauk is the new starter, but he was a highly recruited kid out of high school and will probably be more than ready to go after a week of practice. If Mizzou's D line continues to make plays like they have already this year, they should handle Florida. I'm just not sure if they're ready to win a game like this though. If i got the half point at less than -125, I'd be a player though....Washington (+3.5) is better than Arizona State, I just hate the situation for them coming off those two emotional games. They could have used a bye here. If they clear their heads, they could easily handle ASU, IMO, I just think it's asking a bit much....For some reason, I think Washington State(+39.5) will catch Oregon snoozing through the Washington/UCLA sandwich spot and lose by only 38. It has to happen sometime, right??

That's all I've got. Congrats if you made it through. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL, Knux

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thank God for the late afternoon/night games. I don't think I've ever had a week like that. At least disaster was avoided due to the late games.