Seabass
Pretty much a regular
I've decided to finally start posting my plays here...not because I have any intention of people tailing me, but because I feel like I've gotten away from really evaluating what I am doing wrong when I make bad decisions. If you disagree with my thinking on a game, let me know why-that is exactly what I'm looking for here. But hey, if you feel like telling me you like my card, I guess I'll take that too.
All bets are almost always 2 units, unless I indicate otherwise.
Georgia Tech +9, -101
Bought this one solely for value, expecting it to be bet down to Clemson -7 or so. I'm currently hoping to achieve a nice middle opportunity...but I'm looking to do more research as the week goes on to see is this GT bet is worth simply keeping.
Boston College +3.5, -104
Bought this one solely for value, but clearly messed up pretty badly. I thought the public would hammer it down to a 3 point game or even 2.5, but that was clearly a bad judgment. Is there a reason that I should have expected FSU to be more popular, here? If I can't middle it, I'm going to end up going with BC and hope that they can end their struggles against FSU-BC has played a lot of strong teams, so this is nothing new for them. Problem is, they've played those teams at home...hoping the half point gets me a W, here.
Uconn/West Virginia o 48, -105
The first pick that I'm definitely keeping, bought it because I think it will cash. WVU has only had one game that would have been under this total, 37 vs. East Carolina...a game that was plagued by TO's and missed opportunities. The question is whether UConn can get at least 10 or so on West Virginia, and I think they can. This is homecoming in Uconn, and I think that UConn +21 could be worth a look too...but Navy ran all over them, and I don't see why WVU can't match it. WVU will score on UConn...but UConn will come out motivated and probably find a way to keep up for the first half or so. I think this final score ends up looking similiar to the 41-17 UConn had against Navy.
Oregon State -2.5, -105
Oregon State has two bad losses, against Boise and Cal. They just beat Washington by 10, though, on the road...and maybe I'm valuing that too much, but Arizona is pure trash. They lost to Washington at home...and I think without a 20-7 victory over Stanford, OSU is favored by more than a FG in this one...I think we all know at this point that 20-7 over Stanford is meaningless...
Notre Dame -12.5, -105
The con on this one is that UCLA hasn't lost by more than 10 all season. The pros, though, outweigh the con. Notre Dame is coming off a bye, and probably realizes at this point that it is time to blow someone out to get their respect back. The offense is slowly figuring it out. More importantly, the way to beat Notre Dame is to beat on their secondary...Minus Olson, will UCLA be able to exploit the secondary? I doubt it. To me, UCLA coming east to ND just represents such a step-up in class that they won't be used to it. ND is the best team they have faced this season.
Texas -6.5, -109
Another game where I'm really just looking at pure talent differential. Texas has blown everyone out this year with the exception of Ohio State, and beat Oklahoma handily on the road, back when Adrian Peterson was still alive. Nebraska has looked pretty good against a bunch of terrible teams, and they looked horrible against USC...who is probably overrated at this point, too. Texas simply outclasses Nebraska, and takes care of business in this one.
More may be coming later...thoughts?
All bets are almost always 2 units, unless I indicate otherwise.
Georgia Tech +9, -101
Bought this one solely for value, expecting it to be bet down to Clemson -7 or so. I'm currently hoping to achieve a nice middle opportunity...but I'm looking to do more research as the week goes on to see is this GT bet is worth simply keeping.
Boston College +3.5, -104
Bought this one solely for value, but clearly messed up pretty badly. I thought the public would hammer it down to a 3 point game or even 2.5, but that was clearly a bad judgment. Is there a reason that I should have expected FSU to be more popular, here? If I can't middle it, I'm going to end up going with BC and hope that they can end their struggles against FSU-BC has played a lot of strong teams, so this is nothing new for them. Problem is, they've played those teams at home...hoping the half point gets me a W, here.
Uconn/West Virginia o 48, -105
The first pick that I'm definitely keeping, bought it because I think it will cash. WVU has only had one game that would have been under this total, 37 vs. East Carolina...a game that was plagued by TO's and missed opportunities. The question is whether UConn can get at least 10 or so on West Virginia, and I think they can. This is homecoming in Uconn, and I think that UConn +21 could be worth a look too...but Navy ran all over them, and I don't see why WVU can't match it. WVU will score on UConn...but UConn will come out motivated and probably find a way to keep up for the first half or so. I think this final score ends up looking similiar to the 41-17 UConn had against Navy.
Oregon State -2.5, -105
Oregon State has two bad losses, against Boise and Cal. They just beat Washington by 10, though, on the road...and maybe I'm valuing that too much, but Arizona is pure trash. They lost to Washington at home...and I think without a 20-7 victory over Stanford, OSU is favored by more than a FG in this one...I think we all know at this point that 20-7 over Stanford is meaningless...
Notre Dame -12.5, -105
The con on this one is that UCLA hasn't lost by more than 10 all season. The pros, though, outweigh the con. Notre Dame is coming off a bye, and probably realizes at this point that it is time to blow someone out to get their respect back. The offense is slowly figuring it out. More importantly, the way to beat Notre Dame is to beat on their secondary...Minus Olson, will UCLA be able to exploit the secondary? I doubt it. To me, UCLA coming east to ND just represents such a step-up in class that they won't be used to it. ND is the best team they have faced this season.
Texas -6.5, -109
Another game where I'm really just looking at pure talent differential. Texas has blown everyone out this year with the exception of Ohio State, and beat Oklahoma handily on the road, back when Adrian Peterson was still alive. Nebraska has looked pretty good against a bunch of terrible teams, and they looked horrible against USC...who is probably overrated at this point, too. Texas simply outclasses Nebraska, and takes care of business in this one.
More may be coming later...thoughts?
