Week 8 plays, leans, and my opinion of Cincy/Pittsburgh

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Week 6: 6-4, +4.45u
Week 7: 9-4, +9.7u
Straight plays: 44-30-1, +26.85u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 44-35-1, +25.3u

Best week of the season for me in Week 7.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): L 14-38 (1-6)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): L 17-14 (4-3)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): W 21-15 (6-1)

Again, Syracuse and SC look good. GT got a big win to keep hope alive.

Week 8 plays:

Clemson -16.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Cincinnati -9 (2.2u to win 2)
Nevada/Utah St. Under 67.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan St./Ohio St. Under 54.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan/Illinois Over 45.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Northwestern -9 (1.65u to win 1.5)
San Jose St +13.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Arkansas/Mississippi OVER 54.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Wake Forest -3 (-105) (1.575u to win 1.5)

Week 8 leans:

Temple +6
Wake Forest -3
Miami +5.5 - close to playing this game
Maryland -4 (if Peerman is out)
San Jose St +12.5
Idaho +9.5 (if Holbrook is out)
UAB +13


Didn't see much at the open. Thought I was slick getting NW at 9, and it fell to 8 (I had it at 12.5). Could be a lighter week depending on Bob and the opening totals. I'm fine with that though - we'll see what happens. Write-ups likely to come tomorrow.

GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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you are on fire ! keep it up. thoughts on rutgers as that is the only one i have disagreement with you on.
 
VK, pags, ETG - :cheers: GL this week.

Cincinnati (-10) at Pittsburgh

Last year's game:

Pitt defeated Cincy in Cincinnati 33-15 last season in a game punctuated by big plays for Pittsburgh. It was a sloppy game, with each team committing three turnovers, and with neither team having any running game to speak of. Pitt capitalized off of big plays, as Tyler Palko had 267 yards passing on only 11 completions. Pitt only had 13 first downs and was 1-11 on third down. This is how they scored:

Turner 15 yard pass from Palko - Drive: 2 plays, 18 yards
Kinder 80 yard pass from Palko - Drive: 1 play, 80 yards
Safety
Kinder 55 yard pass from Palko - Drive: 1 play, 55 yards
Lee 30 yards FG - Drive: 6 plays, 10 yards
Revis 55 yard INT return (last play of the game)

This year's game:

Cincinnati comes in off of a damaging loss to Louisville that has sent them crashing back down to earth. Now they go to Pittsburgh, who will have an extra 2 days to prepare after a 48-45 loss to Navy. This is Pittsburgh's homecoming, but Cincinnati will have revenge on their minds as well as the need to eliminate the taste of last week's loss.

I believe that it is somewhat obvious now that the teams that will have success against Cincy are those with dynamic in the passing game. A good QB along with a strong set of WRs is the way to beat this team. I don't believe that the pass D is horrible, but the D-line is too undersized to get consistent pressure on the QB. Now while Kinder and Strong form a respectable tandem at the WR spot, I do not feel that Pat Bostick can beat the Cincy secondary. He may have a big career ahead of him, but he is only 100 passes into his collegiate career. Thus far, I see a QB who doesn't take too many chances and a QB that doesn't put much on the ball. He also lacks mobility, which is a bad thing against a speedy Cincy defense. He is averaging under 6 yards per attempt, and has 6 INT compared 3 TDs.

The strength of the Pitt offense is LaSean McCoy. He has 9 TD on 116 carries on the year (668 yards and a 5.8 avg). Problem is, this plays right into Cincy's defensive strength. I still believe that traditional running teams will not have extended success against this D. Besides a couple of 20+ yard runs from Trent Guy, Cincy contained the Louisville run game this weekend. Pitt will also have to get away from McCoy if they fall behind early, and I don't think that Pitt is capable of doing that.

Pitt's defense looked great early, but they have regressed, giving up 34 to UConn, 44 to Virginia, and 48 to Navy. While the UConn and Virginia point totals were assisted by turnovers, it is still obvious that the D has regressed. And, let's be realistic here. They're only victories have been against Grambling and Eastern Michigan - and even these were not dominant performances. They stayed in the Michigan St. game through a series of mistakes, penalties, and the inefficiency of the Mich. St. O-line. Truth is, they have been dominated in their last three contests.

Of course, Cincy has a big coaching advantage with Kelly against Wannstedt. Also, while Cincy has USF next, they have a bye week before this game and I can't see them looking ahead following a loss. In his last two seasons with Central Michigan, Brian Kelly was 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS coming off of a loss. I expect the Cats to rebound off of their loss as Kelly will work them hard this week in practice. Pittsburgh does not match up well with the Cincinnati team. I will likely be on Cincinnati here.

Cincinnati 38
Pittsburgh 16
 
Northwestern (-9) vs. Eastern Michigan

*Remember, this game is being played on a neutral field in Detroit.

Last year's game:

Northwestern beat EMU 14-6 at home as 17 point favorites. Neither team did anything on offense. EMU had only 134 total yards, including only 47 passing yards. Tyler Jones and Andy Schmitt split time at the QB position. Mike Kafka was still QB for NW, who got 266 total yards behind 91 yards from Tyrell Sutton (who only got 18 carries for some reason). EMU managed only 5 first downs, and both of their scoring drives were less than 20 yards.

This year's game:

Looking at last year's game, this line seems short to me. NW laid 17 last year, and while I believe NW is improved, I think that EMU is stagnant or only slightly better. With both Buffalo and Temple improving, it is possible that EMU is the worst team in a jumbled, mediocre MAC division.

Normally, laying 9 with a defense-less team like Northwestern is suicide. However, I think it works here with a team like EMU. Besides their 42 point performance against Ohio, their best offensive output was 22 against Michigan (and the only other time they put up 20+ points this season).

This offense is improved somewhat, but they still have no running game. Pierre Walker leads the team with 262 yards, but he is only averaging 2.9 ypc. The team as a whole is only averaging 3.6 ypc. Andy Schmitt has definitely improved, passing for over 1000 yards with 10 TDs and 5 INT. However, Schmitt is questionable this week with shoulder problems. If Schmitt, can't go, Kyle McMahon will likely get the nod. He has 3 INT in only 18 passes this season. And, if with the improvement of Schmitt, this team still only averages 287 yards per game of total offense.

It is hard to judge the defense of EMU, but they can be beaten both on the ground and through the air. Justin Anderson of NIU, Mike Hart, and Kalvin McRae of Ohio all have had their way on the ground. Nate Davis was also able to beat them through the air. With CJ Bacher's improvement (over 900 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INT in the last two games), I expect NW to be able to score. Omar Conteh running the ball should be enough to pace a balance and open up the passing game for NW.

Also, this game is more important to Nortwestern. They stand at 4-3 at this point, and they damn well better beat EMU if they have thoughts of making a bowl. Following EMU, they have @Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and @Illinois to close the season. Definitely not a cakewalk, so they better not take this game for granted. EMU, on the other hand, has already surpassed last year's win total and will likely be more concerned with conference foes. NW should have the balance to tire the EMU D, and Andy Schmitt's injury woes could slow an improving Eagle offense. EMU is also coming off 3 straight road games and while this is not a true road game, this will be their 4th straight game away from home.

Northwestern 38
Eastern Michigan 21
 
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i am pretty sure that going against any Wanny coached team ever since he was the Bears and Dolphins coach would make you good money, and he still is.
 
Hunt - thanks - Miami should be a play.

linde - Friday night lights, baby. The big time.

KJ - that's pretty much the logic.

Aztec - thanks - GL this week.

Adding:

Nevada/Utah St. Under 67.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan St./Ohio St. Under 54.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan/Illinois Over 45.5 (2.2u to win 2)
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Keep up the good work D..... gl
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Any reasoning on the Nevada/Utah State game?

It seems high to me as well, mostly due to each team's last game I think?

Not sure if I will have the time to look into this game, but I like it
 
Bearcat backers beware!

Wannstedt misses practice because of torn Achilles

Associated Press
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: October 17, 2007, 1:12 PM ET <!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->PITTSBURGH -- The latest addition to Pitt's already long injury list is coach Dave Wannstedt.

Wannstedt missed practice Tuesday after tearing his left Achilles tendon earlier in the day, requiring surgery that took place several hours after he was hurt.

The injury may prevent Wannstedt from being on the sideline Saturday for No. 23 Cincinnati's game at Pitt. The Panthers (2-4) have lost four straight games. Wannstedt may coach the game from the press box.

Pitt has had a long string of injuries that began when wide receiver Derek Kinder, the team's top returning offensive player, badly injured a knee on the first day of contact work during preseason camp. Kinder is sitting out the season.

Starting quarterback Bill Stull injured a thumb in the Sept. 1 season opener and has yet to return.

Wannstedt, a former Pitt offensive linemen, coached the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins before being hired by Pitt in December 2004. He has a 13-16 record.
Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press


Sadly, I'm kind of serious. :seeya:
 
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Wannstedt missed practice Tuesday after tearing his left Achilles' tendon earlier in the day, requiring surgery that took place several hours after he was hurt.[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]The injury may prevent Wannstedt from being on the sideline Saturday for No. 23 Cincinnati's game at Pitt. The Panthers (2-4) have lost four straight games. Wannstedt may coach the game from the press box.[/FONT]



Could be the break Pitt needs. They may have just solved their biggest problem!!!
 
Nevada/Utah St. Under 67.5

This is a total that I believe was heavily influenced by each team's last game. Utah St lost @Hawaii 52-37 two weeks back and Nevada lost 69-67 @Boise in 4 OTs.

Utah St. offense:

I am not sure what they think USU is going to do in this game, but given the line, they expect this team to score around 30 points. This seems pretty far-fetched, as Utah St's offense has not been productive this season. Besides their 37 point output against Hawaii, Utah St has put up 16 points vs. UNLV, 18 points @Wyoming, 3 points @Oklahoma, 20 points vs. SJSU, and 18 points @Utah.

As a matter of fact, let's look back at all of Utah St's scoring drives this season:

UNLV:
Aaron Lesue 2 yard run - Drive: 6 plays, 58 yards
Caldwell 38 yard FG - Drive: 3 plays, 0 yards
Leon Jackson 1 yard run - Drive: 6 plays, 34 yards

Wyoming:
Caldwell 29 yard FG - Drive: 13 plays, 51 yards
Caldwell 31 yard FG - Drive: 8 plays, 66 yards
De'von Hall 38 yard INT return - No Drive
Robinson 16 yard pass from Jackson - 1 play, 16 yards

Oklahoma:
Caldwell 30 yard FG - 12 plays, 46 yards

SJSU:
Robinson 82 yard KO return - No Drive
Caldwell 22 yard FG - 10 plays, 37 yards
Caldwell 37 yard FG - 4 plays, 4 yards
Speight 1 yard run - 20 plays, 92 yards

Utah:
Jackson 1 yard run - Drive: 1 play, 1 yard
Caldwell 24 yard FG - Drive: 12 plays, 66 yards
Nelson 10 yard pass from Jackson - Drive: 7 plays, 24 yards

Hawaii:
Caldwell 20 yard FG - Drive: 11 plays, 68 yards
Robinson 100 yard KO return - No Drive
Caldwell 36 yard FG - Drive: 10 plays, 52 yards
Speight 9 yard run - Drive: 12 plays, 64 yards
Robinson 77 yard pass from Jackson - Drive: 1 play, 77 yards
Caldwell 47 yard FG - Drive: 7 plays, 8 yards
Bowman 14 yard pass from McCormick - Drive: 5 plays, 73 yards

Why did I write all that out? A couple of reasons. This team only has 12 touchdowns on the season - only 9 of which are offensive scores (1.5 offensive TDs per game). The Hawaii game was the only game where they had extended success - in fact, it is the only game where they surpassed 300 total yards this season.

Also, look at all of the short FGs by Caldwell - 9 FGs of under 40 yards. It is obvious that this team does not produce in the redzone.

This team only averages 260 ypg (121 on the ground, 139 through the air). QB Leon Jackson only averages 5.86 yards per attempt (with 3 TDs and 3 INT). The team's only real playmaker is Kevin Robinson, who has 31 catches for 359 yards and 2 TDs. He is also responsible for nearly every big play: 2 KO returns, and a 77 yard TD catch. Robinson has nearly half of the team's receiving yards, and no other receiver has more than 11 catches.

Utah St. doesn't run well either. The longest run of the year for them has been 30 yards, and the leading rusher is Derrvin Speight with 240 yards on 67 carries (3.6 avg). As a team, USU only averages 3 yards per carry.

Lastly, USU runs far more than they pass - they have 245 rushes compared to 142 passes on the season, which means the clock will be running.

- the clock will run when USU has the ball
- big plays are usually kept to a minimum with this team, unless Robinson breaks loose
- they don't capitalize in the red zone (23-87, 26.4% on 3rd downs this season)
- any extended drive that they have will eat clock.
- Leon Jackson is a respectable punter, averaging 42.3 yards per punt.

Basically, the basis behind this play is that the Utah St. offense will not do nearly enough to send this over the total. Now, they have played some solid Ds (Oklahoma, Wyoming among them), but I think that the complete picture shows the true colors of this team. I also feel that Utah St's D is not as bad as advertised while Nevada's O is not quite as good as advertised.

Besides the Hawaii game, Utah St's highest total of the season was 57 (in a 54-3 loss to Oklahoma).

I would also recommend a Nevada spread play, but I am weary of playing a road favorite along with an under in the same game.

Nevada 35
Utah St. 17
 
The above write-up is mostly Utah St. info, if you want more about what I think Nevada will do, let me know.
 
Hope the aggies shut down Nevada for you !!!
great write up as per usual.

GO AGGIES !!! mighty utah state !!!! GO AGGIES !!!! make nevada see their fate !!!!!! GO AGGIES !!!! mighty utah state GO AGGIES !!!! dmoneys under sure looks great !!!!

GO AGGIES. sorry for drunken post
 
Nice writeups Dmoney

Really like some of those plays, Wake -3 and the Ohio St under, especially.

Thanks for the info on Wannstadt. Yeah if anything that can only help Pitt, LOL. I'm actually considering going against your Bearcats again here, despite the strong case you've made for them.

Oh and thanks for talking me off NIU last week.:shake:
 
D completely agree with you on Cincy this week. The opportunistic defense should have a field day with bostic. Cincy is one of my top plays this weekend!!!
 
As always, we agree for the most part DMoney, Cincy bounces back this week in a big way!!!

Good Luck!

WEBB
 
Hey D, what score are you predicting for the Mich/Ill over? I am thinking about playing it. If Hart is out or banged up, Mich could be throwing quite a bit. Thanks...
 
Tenderviddles2 said:
Hey D, what score are you predicting for the Mich/Ill over? I am thinking about playing it. If Hart is out or banged up, Mich could be throwing quite a bit. Thanks...
Click to expand...


I was thinking 31-24ish, with either team capable of winning. Hart's injury doesn't concern me. If he is in, that's an extra weapon, but if he's out, the ball will be in the air like you said.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Northwestern (-9) vs. Eastern Michigan

*Remember, this game is being played on a neutral field in Detroit.
Click to expand...

D, I am on this play to for a medium bet, but couldn't you argue that this is actually a home game EMU. My geography is horseshit, so I went to mapquest, and it appears EMU is only 40 minutes from Detroit? Northwestern's never been known for great followings...Just curious...
 
Also wanted to mention that Nevada/Utah State game is a Noon Start.

I would like Nevada ATS, but that long ass OT game on Sunday night coupled with a early Saturday kickoff on the road scares me...
 
GL this week

btw really impressive putting up those numbers these last few weeks. Not a lot of people have had success this October, keep it going.
 
Hey D$$$$, when are you going to do your write-up on San Jose St? My last pick will either be Mich over or San Jose + the points. They just played an OT game I think...does that concern you? What would be your strongest pick between the 2? Thanks....I am bowing out of my Mich St over after seeing that Ohio St held NW and Purdue to 7 points. The Nevada under is dropping too. Bummer GL
 
Thanks CHS and mets - hopefully it cashes for us.

Thanks VK - tell your Aggies to hold the Wolfpack to a reasonable number.

Thanks macdamn - NIU actually played better than I expected, but WMU pulled it out. GL this week.

Thanks weeb and bjorks - hopefully Cincy rebounds.

Counselor - it is definitely closer to EMU, but the fact that they are away from campus should prevent some fans and students from showing up.

BC and ETG - thanks, GL this week.

Thanks RSMS - been lucky enough to avoid those pesky backdoors lately. GL this week.

TV - SJSU is not a play as of right now, so I'd lean toward the over. If I play SJSU, I'll be sure to get my thoughts down. I'll have my final card up by late tonight or very early tom morning. I usually have it finalized by now, but I'm having a tougher time finding value this week.

BR - Too much info, but GL this week.
 
Very lucky front door and then a big stop in NW tonight. Very strange game overall.

Adding:

Clemson -16.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Cincinnati -9 (2.2u to win 2)

Will have 2-3 more tomorrow morning. Wake, SJSU, UAB, Idaho, Miami, etc still under consideration.
 
Final adds:

San Jose St +13.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Arkansas/Mississippi OVER 54.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Wake Forest -3 (-105) (1.575u to win 1.5)

Sorry TV - probably not practical to get my SJSU thoughts down as it is pretty close to gametime. If you still want them, chime in here and I'll do my best.

GL to all today.
 
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