vk said said:
Oregon State - Cal QB makes this possible, doesn't it?
Why can’t oregon st beat cal? Interesting game since cal offense terrible but who can’t score on beavers, I like beavers offense but cal will be only the second good d they have faced but I don’t think cal d is anywhere close to as scary up front as utes who dominated beavers last week., I think osu can score, they should get plenty of chances. 11 seems like a ton I’m def taking the points, thinking bout the ml.
I find these numbers interesting. The SU record here for my query is 7-0. I'm not all that scared off by the undefeated home record because, if I had a dime for every undefeated trend I backed then lost, I wouldn't be gambling. Well, not entirely true, but hopefully you get my point. What I find interesting here is the average line for all these similar games is -35. The standard deviation is 12 and look at the BC/Army line... -23.5. Do the math...really uncanny! The line for the Cal/OSU game, however, falls well outside of the range. When I see this, I immediately think of the Public and a quick check at my fav consensus sight reveals it sitting at 73% for Cal. I know I might sound all wackadoodle and shit but, bottom line, I think Cal is most likely a Public darling.
I do like Oregon State. For full disclosure, I frequently like Oregon St - I've bet every week this year, some MLs and have a RSW Ov on them. So I might not be super objective on them.
Last week was bad bad bad, honestly, I thought Oregon State was past those type of woodshed games.
Which really makes this game super important for their team culture and innerworkings. To bounceback and prove to themselves that all the work and the what the coaches are preaching is working. They have bye on deck, so another bad showing here and they have 2 weeks to be stuck with the Utah and Cal results.
Now to the tangibles. I think this game comes down 100% most certainly to Jake Luton. Oregon St will have success or failure all on his play. He can play really well and is a better QB this year, but still susceptible to streaky play - see the 2nd H vs Hawaii for instance.
With a QB that can lose some mojo mid-game it is an iffy proposition to give him full faith and confidence facing this Cal D. But, this is what he must do, and Ore St's hopes totally hinge on it. He threw his first INT of the season last week, now the ratio is 14-1 - pretty good.
Oregon State has played well in both road games this year (at Hawaii 28-31 - Beaver's D played really well...and at UCLA 48-31...team came out absolutely on fire). So I like that.
I also like Oregon State's O in general, they have nice skill weapons. The OL has only given up 8 sacks on 216 pass attempts (3.7%).
Oregon State's YPP O is a healthy 6.24 and they convert 3rd downs really well, 47% 2nd best PAC12 and top 20 nationally.
Contrast that with Cal's O, sub 5 YPP ranks them 109th and 36% 3rd down conv 97th nationally (last in PAC12). This we know, the Cal O is bad. Remember the North Texas game? They could only score 23 pts on a not good CUSA D. See that NT is allowing avg 35 ppg to their other 5 foes. Now Cal, has posted some better numbers in other games, but that was with Garbers at QB. Now they have Modster, downgrade.
Go Beavs!
