Week 8 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Does 1st Qtr count @ProV1Colt ??
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Noles
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Why MSU? What makes you think they can outscore LSU? Seems like throwing away money.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
It's the situation....massive home win by LSU and possible letdown the following week otr. MSU came to play against my team and dominated us so they have shown they can play inspired and they will bounce back. I just need a slow start by LSU for a 1st Qtr and possibly a 1st half win. I do not think MSU can hang the full 60 minutes. And I still think LSU's defense is suspect ever since they gave up 38 to Vandy.
Coastal popped out to me too.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
For some reason Syracuse seems off. Pitt has played well, but books hang a 3 versus a team that has underperformed for the past month. Seems fishy.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
1st run through
UCLA
Marshall
Syracuse
Duke
Arizona St
Washington
KSU
Old Dom
Baylor
Tulane
Charlotte
Mid TN St
Temple, if Russo sits
HA
UCLA
Marshall
Syracuse
Duke
Arizona St
Washington
KSU
Old Dom
Baylor
Tulane
Charlotte
Mid TN St
Temple, if Russo sits
HA
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Here is a breakdown of the 2019 season to date.
There have been 439 games played, there have been 79 upsets, or 18%*
* lines right around zero can lead to different results, for instance, the season log I am using shows Arizona St as a favorite vs Washington St - but my line source showed Wash St as a favorite. So there could be some variation in the actual number.
Biggest upsets (odds from scoresandodds.com):
9/14 - Citadel +1500 VegasInsider (Georgia Tech)
10/12 - Bowling Green +1358 (Toledo)
8/31 - Georgia State +1150 (Tennessee)
10/12 - South Carolina +837 (Georgia)
9/13 - Kansas +711 (Boston College)
9/21 - UCLA +679 (Washington State)
9/21 - San Jose +664 (Arkansas)
10/12 - UNLV +534 (Vanderbilt)
8/31 - Wyoming +533 (Mizzou)
Best Performers:
Georgia State +1150, +199, +145
Western Kentucky +278, +148, +184
15 teams have 2
42 teams have 1
There have been one FCS/IAA upsets of FBS/IA teams, Citadel 26pt dog beating GT. Texas St did upset Nicholls as a 4 pt dog.
There have been 439 games played, there have been 79 upsets, or 18%*
* lines right around zero can lead to different results, for instance, the season log I am using shows Arizona St as a favorite vs Washington St - but my line source showed Wash St as a favorite. So there could be some variation in the actual number.
Biggest upsets (odds from scoresandodds.com):
9/14 - Citadel +1500 VegasInsider (Georgia Tech)
10/12 - Bowling Green +1358 (Toledo)
8/31 - Georgia State +1150 (Tennessee)
10/12 - South Carolina +837 (Georgia)
9/13 - Kansas +711 (Boston College)
9/21 - UCLA +679 (Washington State)
9/21 - San Jose +664 (Arkansas)
10/12 - UNLV +534 (Vanderbilt)
8/31 - Wyoming +533 (Mizzou)
Best Performers:
Georgia State +1150, +199, +145
Western Kentucky +278, +148, +184
15 teams have 2
42 teams have 1
There have been one FCS/IAA upsets of FBS/IA teams, Citadel 26pt dog beating GT. Texas St did upset Nicholls as a 4 pt dog.
Last edited:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
And they beat Memphis last year
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I did not. But I did play Bowling Green (along with losers on Miami Oh and Akron).
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Did LSU's defense give up 38 to Vandy, or did LSU's team?
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
| 586862016-2 | 10/12/19 10:44am | $8.00 | $152.00 | $160.00 | Win | 10/12/19 12:00pm Reduced Football 118 Bowling Green +1900* vs Toledo |
Citadel GT... Overall though we haven't had a lot of the big ones of the last few years. With that being said methinks this is a big upset week
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Thank you for that correction. I will update the post.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Ball State and Georgia State are coming off back-to-back upset wins. Earlier this year UNC was coming off back-to-back upset wins and lost the third game 18-24 (+3) at WF (although they should've been allowed one final play which would've been a hail mary attempt - who knows).
MW shared a stat that I can't remember for teams going for 3rd straight upset, maybe he can post it again.
MW shared a stat that I can't remember for teams going for 3rd straight upset, maybe he can post it again.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
If this had been any year previous, I'd be on board with a possible upset. But with LSU's offense, I don't see any way MSU gets the W unless Burrow goes down
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Temple is really interesting to me. Usually don’t think of a bye as a bad thing but in this case might be a situation where smu getting told how great they are, not a familiar spot for them. Enter a hard nosed owls team that won’t make anything easy. I could def see it. One those dogs where I don’t think the points will matter, either smu focused and rolls if they slipping and get beat.,
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Well we're thinking along the same lines...I did my queries and one would think that having a week off would be beneficial to the home team but, in this situation with these two teams, it is not. I'll post an example in a little while. Also, with the defense Temple plays, I think they'll have a shot to win every game they play.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really feel like it could be a hinderance in this situation. Just with smu off that crazy comeback then also being in unfamiliar territory you know they were walking around campus w a swagger all week getting told how great they are.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I'll try to apply some objective stats to your subjective analysis....pic 1 compares previous season's W/L records and the previous week's results for both Temple and SMU. The win % for the home team is 42.7%. I added the home team having rest of greater than 10 days in pic 2 and the win % goes down to 37.5%. And finally, in pic 3, I added the previous game for the home team was at home and it came out SU 0-2 for 0%. So as I add the home team having greater rest than their opponent and the fact they have been "walking around all week with a swagger" as you say, the win % goes straight down. I'll be on Temple ML fwiw.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Why USF? I dont think they will slow down Navy at all.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Can see all those.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I might be pressing a bit with my USF pick but 1) I am not of the opinion that Charlie Strong sucks as a coach 2) USF has built some forward mo and confidence the past 2 games 3) they showed a bit of moxie in the come from behind win over BYU 4) Navy’s best win was a solid one over Tulsa but I think the final score was a bit skewed based on how Tulsa lost the previous week vs. SMU (I.e. letdown) and 5) my trends are saying Navy is way overpriced vs. USF. Like I said, I might be wishing for too much here but I do think this will be a tighter game than most people think. BOLTA!
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
I'm perplexed by this line. That being said, asu's home vs road offensive production is much different in spite of the win at sparty. ASU has had Utah's number the last few years but that was with Wilkins. Utah wanted Daniels bad and rightfully so but he could be in for a long day with Utah's defense which has made some adjustments following the USC loss. Huntley is a man on a mission right now and Moss is doing better with regards to his shoulder.
I have no clue on this game, that number is large and begging for ASU money. I think Utah either covers or loses, no middle ground.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ve heard a interesting case for zona on one podcast or another. They were saying they feel like usc has few games circled like last week where they will get up and play their asses off but weeks like this good chance we don’t see w top notch effort with lame duck coach and team they don’t take seriously. Sounded reasonable to me.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno. Considering how since herm took over the majority of their games been played within a td I could see utes by 7-10 pretty easily.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I been lookin pretty hard at tech.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I kinda agree. Think navy steamrolls actually.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Think I’ll be joining you. I like when numbers back up my assumptions! Lol
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Florida @ South Carolina: by far the best stats I have uncovered this week so I thought I would post them. My apologies for taking so long. Comparisons based on teams with winning records from previous season and previous week's results. Looks like there is a strong possibility Gamecocks will parlay their big win last week into some huge home field momentum vs. the Gators. Home teams in this situation have gone 13-1 SU in SDQL dbase history. Bumping up the Gamecocks ML to my fav play of the week....fwiw.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Here are some ....
UNLV - Fresno just gave up 340 on the ground to AFA, UNLV off two impressive games in a loss to Boise (deceiving score) and win at Vandy, and have a varied rushing attack. Long shot for sure but possible.
Oregon State - Cal QB makes this possible, doesn't it?
Akron - Dare i say it? Buffalo has only reached 400 yards once all year (429) and it happened when they had 90 plays in the game. Akron looked slightly improved last week.
Old Dominion - Every once in awhile my radar pings. This game is making my radar ping.
Tulane - Good DL could mean slowing down the Memphis run game, and as we saw AGAIN last week, Brady White isn't going to beat you very often. Tulane could potentially score with Memphis in the event of a shootout as well. Seems reasonable but something feels off... maybe because of what tulane did to them last year (note that was a weather game which Memphis struggled in multiple times last year)
MTSU - thoroughly outplayed FAU last week in defeat, and UNT not to be trusted.
Marshall - Schizo team, FAU is a schizo team. FAU is florida based and will get higher betting volume than normal. Always a dangerous combo.
UNLV - Fresno just gave up 340 on the ground to AFA, UNLV off two impressive games in a loss to Boise (deceiving score) and win at Vandy, and have a varied rushing attack. Long shot for sure but possible.
Oregon State - Cal QB makes this possible, doesn't it?
Akron - Dare i say it? Buffalo has only reached 400 yards once all year (429) and it happened when they had 90 plays in the game. Akron looked slightly improved last week.
Old Dominion - Every once in awhile my radar pings. This game is making my radar ping.
Tulane - Good DL could mean slowing down the Memphis run game, and as we saw AGAIN last week, Brady White isn't going to beat you very often. Tulane could potentially score with Memphis in the event of a shootout as well. Seems reasonable but something feels off... maybe because of what tulane did to them last year (note that was a weather game which Memphis struggled in multiple times last year)
MTSU - thoroughly outplayed FAU last week in defeat, and UNT not to be trusted.
Marshall - Schizo team, FAU is a schizo team. FAU is florida based and will get higher betting volume than normal. Always a dangerous combo.
Ditto on clowncar's thought....Sexellent.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Charlotte at +270/280-ish
Mentioned them potentially last week in our thread, but only played them on a small ats wager and no ML.
Thing about last week was FIU. The FIU that started this season has been pretty underwhelming, I said "the way FIU has been playing". I'd say last week, they played to their potential and capability. So last week's Charlotte bet was part me liking the 49ers, but was equal part what FIU had been fielding...and a different FIU team showed up. So I really don't fault Charlotte there because this summer I was high on FIU having a good year - I never would've seen Charlotte competing with them if the FIU team I thought could be good was good. So anyway, I think FIU might be playing where they should've been all a long and it doesn't make me shy about wanting to look Charlotte's way again.
And even in that game, Charlotte played even in the 1st H, there was one huge play near the end of the half that tilted things in FIU's favor. Then whether it was momentum, adjustments or wearing down, FIU owned the 2nd H. But it isn't like they were just inferior the entire game. I still think there are things to like about Charlotte.
Charlotte is #2 CUSA in scoring O (33.7) and have scored 40+ 3x so far this season after only doing so once all of 2018. Their 13 TD passes are 4 more than they had all of last year. They have a great RZ TD 80% (top 10 nationally). And they lead CUSA in rushing O.
The D can be a little worrisome, although there are proven recognized playmakers at each level of the D (Highsmith, Gemmell, DeLuca) and of note they have 19 sacks YTD in 6 games. They have 19 all of last year.
Will be a great showcase for DEs of both teams...Charlotte's Alex Highsmith and WKU's DeAngelo Malone.
WKU is 4-2 and surpassed last year's 3 win total as the disaster of the Mike Sanford era is behind them. They've improved just about every week, but I think they still have work to do. Talking about offensive yardage output the last 3 weeks of 222, 320 and 365 total yards with an average yards per play of 4.5 in those 3 (WKU ranks 113th in O ypp). And 20, 20 and 17 points scored in those. It's not like they do anything great or unique that Charlotte will have a hard time with - or that they have superior talent necessarily. Storey has stepped in at QB and done a good job for the injured week 1 starter. The best thing that WKU has shown of late is their D. They have 4 wins because of their D, holding each defeated opponent to 14 pts or less.
I think holding Charlotte under 14 pts isn't realistic, or keeping them from getting into the 20s. 49ers have a QB in his 2nd year starting (Reynolds) and exceptional RB (LeMay) and a good second string RB (McAllister). The OL had some holes, but are solid at C (Fisher started all 12 '18, only miss this year was FAU and no surprise Char had lowest rushing output) and LT (Clark - played in every game of his career, 42) and RG (Allen former JUCO 3rd year on team with prior starting exp). The WR group is young, but Tucker is a very good one. Throw in an All-CUSA K (Cruz) and it comprises a strong scoring unit.
Charlotte HC Will Healy was a former FCS Coach of the Year at Richmond and despite a 3 game losing streak (Clemson, FAU, FIU), I think they are still pointed in the right direction and see this as a game they can certainly win. The odds and spread seem too high in my opinion. Stanford Steve had them last week as a best bet and while they failed in that role, I am not selling them - instead I hope to profit with increased odds.
Mentioned them potentially last week in our thread, but only played them on a small ats wager and no ML.
Thing about last week was FIU. The FIU that started this season has been pretty underwhelming, I said "the way FIU has been playing". I'd say last week, they played to their potential and capability. So last week's Charlotte bet was part me liking the 49ers, but was equal part what FIU had been fielding...and a different FIU team showed up. So I really don't fault Charlotte there because this summer I was high on FIU having a good year - I never would've seen Charlotte competing with them if the FIU team I thought could be good was good. So anyway, I think FIU might be playing where they should've been all a long and it doesn't make me shy about wanting to look Charlotte's way again.
And even in that game, Charlotte played even in the 1st H, there was one huge play near the end of the half that tilted things in FIU's favor. Then whether it was momentum, adjustments or wearing down, FIU owned the 2nd H. But it isn't like they were just inferior the entire game. I still think there are things to like about Charlotte.
Charlotte is #2 CUSA in scoring O (33.7) and have scored 40+ 3x so far this season after only doing so once all of 2018. Their 13 TD passes are 4 more than they had all of last year. They have a great RZ TD 80% (top 10 nationally). And they lead CUSA in rushing O.
The D can be a little worrisome, although there are proven recognized playmakers at each level of the D (Highsmith, Gemmell, DeLuca) and of note they have 19 sacks YTD in 6 games. They have 19 all of last year.
Will be a great showcase for DEs of both teams...Charlotte's Alex Highsmith and WKU's DeAngelo Malone.
WKU is 4-2 and surpassed last year's 3 win total as the disaster of the Mike Sanford era is behind them. They've improved just about every week, but I think they still have work to do. Talking about offensive yardage output the last 3 weeks of 222, 320 and 365 total yards with an average yards per play of 4.5 in those 3 (WKU ranks 113th in O ypp). And 20, 20 and 17 points scored in those. It's not like they do anything great or unique that Charlotte will have a hard time with - or that they have superior talent necessarily. Storey has stepped in at QB and done a good job for the injured week 1 starter. The best thing that WKU has shown of late is their D. They have 4 wins because of their D, holding each defeated opponent to 14 pts or less.
I think holding Charlotte under 14 pts isn't realistic, or keeping them from getting into the 20s. 49ers have a QB in his 2nd year starting (Reynolds) and exceptional RB (LeMay) and a good second string RB (McAllister). The OL had some holes, but are solid at C (Fisher started all 12 '18, only miss this year was FAU and no surprise Char had lowest rushing output) and LT (Clark - played in every game of his career, 42) and RG (Allen former JUCO 3rd year on team with prior starting exp). The WR group is young, but Tucker is a very good one. Throw in an All-CUSA K (Cruz) and it comprises a strong scoring unit.
Charlotte HC Will Healy was a former FCS Coach of the Year at Richmond and despite a 3 game losing streak (Clemson, FAU, FIU), I think they are still pointed in the right direction and see this as a game they can certainly win. The odds and spread seem too high in my opinion. Stanford Steve had them last week as a best bet and while they failed in that role, I am not selling them - instead I hope to profit with increased odds.
