Having a hard time justifying where my ML money might go this week. Here are a few I'm thinking of:
Miami, Oh +256
Not ideal conditions for Miami, having to face option right in the middle of their key MAC schedule with trip to Buffalo on deck. What Miami does have going for them is they have rebounded from some early season struggles once they got to play some teams their own size. QB Ragland was completing just 54% with 5.5 ypa and 3-2 ratio in the first 3 games vs Marshall, Cincy and Minny. Since then he is 69%, 8.0 ypa, 7-1 ratio last 4 weeks vs BGSU, WMich, Akron and Kent. And Redhawks actually have some balance...avg 212ypg last 4 weeks on the ground. On D, facing the option is another animal, but fundamentally, Mia is pretty sound vs the run and been pretty good at creating negative yardage plays on D. Impressively they held Minny to just 2.68 ypc and the MAC's best rush O Western Michigan was held to 84y below their avg with just 3.3 ypc (Bronco ssn avg is 5.09). It is a veteran group who is playing well on both sides of the ball. Army is nails. But last week was a joke at San Jose with all the turnovers, Knights win vs Buffalo can't be discounted though. I feel like Army often finds itself in close games though and there are plenty of examples of Army playing MAC teams that produced close competitive games - this could be another one.
Ball State +130
Second to last home game and they won't be back til Nov 13th. These teams have been in a ton of one score games...Ball St has played in 4, EMich in 6. This one figures to be another. Both teams playing solid D, I give Ball the O edge. EM hasn't had a conventional run game all year so they have been utilizing QB Glass to manufacture a running game, after coming into games alot, he got his first start last week and played a real good 1st H, problem is he has a knee sprain and although the coaches won't say if he is out or not, he was on crutches during the second half last week and widespread speculation is he is out....even if he wasn't his game is running and he won't be able to run so no reason to play him. That puts the game squarely in Weigers hands who can be ok when given time, but when pressured he struggles. Ball St is decent at getting pressure and EM is bad in allowing it. So EM will have to gameplan around that, or they could utilize some yet to be seen young running QB. Some mystery here. I do not anticipate EM being flat, but it should be noted that beating Toledo, getting that Mouse off their back was a huge game last week (had lost 11 straight to UT) and they did beat Ball St by 42 last year, so the chance for that is there. Both teams need this game and both teams have solid defenses, I'll side with the better O and urgency of making the most of 1 of 2 remaining home games.
Charlotte +664
I kind of stumbled upon Charlotte last week and while I do not want to overreact to their win vs a bad WKU team, this Charlotte team probably isn't as bad as people might think. They have a decent run D, App ST only ran for 139 and 3.9ypc. For the season they are allowing just 92ypg and 3.3ypc. They aren't great at defending the pass, but what is Stockstill's health? His ankle injury was bad enough that he couldn't return in an important game at FIU last week. His backup is a little limited throwing and more of a runner. So that is an interesting angle considering what this point spread and odds are. Assuming no Stockstill it is hard to justify this number I think. Adding to the intregue Charlotte will have a new QB making first start with Reynolds injury last week, Miami, Fl transfer Sherriffs steps in. He was good last week vs hapless WKU but the game was already in hand and he wasn't asked to do much or faced any kind of pressure. Hasn't ever really done much so hard to gauge him in terms of expectations here. Alot of the MTSU stats are bad, but have to take them with a grain of salt considering their schedule. They did allow an FIU team not known for passing prowess to go for 311. And FAU ran for 272, Marshall for 209. Charlotte not very consistent with their run game, but LeMay is a decent back. With last week's loss this is a really big game for MTSU to keep pace in the East and I expect them to play like it, but, actually, Charlotte, whether real or not, 49ers may believe they have something to play for too, they are also 2-1 in league play like MTSU. Can't really remember Charlotte kids believing they had something to play for, kind of makes 6.6:1 worth a small shot, maybe.
Kent State +184
Full disclosure I have been riding Kent ATS the last 3 weeks and have gone 1-2 in those. There is something I see in Kent that keeps me coming back. And sometimes there are things that should make me stay away. This is just Kent's 3rd home game of the year and I like the idea of taking a new head coach trying to create a new identity at home for a rivalry game, the Wagon Wheel vs Akron. Kent has some life in them. Could've beat Ohio last home game, actually if you count Howard, Kent is 2-0 ATS at home this year. Not sure what there is to like about Akron. The offense is just offensive. Just 235 yards last week at Buffalo, just 259 yards two weeks ago against Miami. Granted those are better teams than Kent. Akron's D is supposed to be their strength, but they allowed over 400y to each of those and Kent does have alot of potential on O. Not consistent and error prone, but when they get it right, there are things Kent can do on O that gives them a shot here. There is just nothing that Akron does well and I get that they are favored because Kent historically isn't good. Last year Akron won by 10, but Zips had just 191 yards of O in that one, Kent outgained them (a much worse Kent O than 2018 version). Two years ago Akron won by 4 with 7 lead changes. I want to buy what Sean Lewis is selling for this game, bye on deck, this seriously is their superbowl vs their #1 rival.
UTEP +1098
VK planted a seed on this one. I saw it and kinda thought about it for a minute like I normally do on ugly dog specials. UTEP is a little more than just an ugly dog though, this team has played some decent games unlike some prior editions. Only lost to North Texas by 3, what? Did what a team should do vs bad offenses, held UTSA to 278y and NMSt to 311y. Miners actually outgained both those teams in losing by 7 and 11 pts. North Texas only outgained them by 11. What in the name of Dana Dimel is going on here? Well, the challege gets tougher this week playing a talented and experienced LaTech team. Don't believe there are any real edges in this game, LaTech will have to come out with a B-game type effort. They do have FAU on deck if they think there are bigger fish to fry. When, or if, one bets against LaTech, the hope if for a WTF game out of J'Mar Smith and from time-to-time he delivers. He's not the most efficient or most accurate, so that is something UTEP will have to count on. Maybe LaTech already had that game this year, no shame in losing to UAB. Understatement alert, this would be fairly surprising. Feel like UTEP is playing better ball (even look back to the Tennessee game) compared to years past. This team appears to have bought in, hoping for a productive and reenergizing off week. Need to check health of Locksley.
ULL +1243
Going to give VK some props on this one too. When I started looking at it, I really started to like it. Can anyone guess the highest rated QB in the Sun Belt? How about Andre Nunez the Sr QB for ULaLa! He is 68%, 8.8 ypa with 11-4 ratio. App St QB Thomas is #2 rated passer by the way. Anyone know what RB has the highest ypg in the Sun Belt? Trey Ragas with 99.83 ypg...7.0 ypc vs Miss St...6.9 ypc vs Bama...6.6 ypc for the year. They also have a guy Calais who is avg 8.7 ypc on 34 att. Anyone know who has the most TD receptions in the Sun Belt? Ja'Marcus Bradley...6 TDs on just 17rec (16.71 ypc). So this team has some weapons. Everything is new for ULL this year with Napier in charge and they seem to be responding well...did lose by 2 vs Coastal Carolina, but the last 2 weeks took care of business vs bad teams they should've beat. Obviously the challenge gets much much tougher this week and App has shown ability to dispatch lesser foes (45-9 vs Charlotte, 52-7 vs South Bama). Last year App St won 63-14 vs a demoralized Cajuns team so alot of improvement is needed here to close that kind of gap. Generally doubt any look-ahead for App St, but they do travel to Georgia Southern on a short week coming up, so a chance, a small chance they may be putting some work in on that game just because they are playing a team they beat by 7 TDs last year and GaSouthern is 3-0 Sun Belt, 5-1 overall. Coaching staff probably smarter than that, but you never know. This game will require something out of the ordinary to occur here because ULL ain't just matching up in this one, but it does appear to a higher degree of possibility than your run-of-the-mill 25 pt dog.
I may have some more thoughts tomorrow.
