Week 8 ML Dogs

Florida State is bad at alot of things and Louisville is good at alot of things.

FSU - bad: 13th ACC 3rd down conv O (33%), 14th ACC and 124th nationally first down O, 14th fumbles recovered, 14th net punting, 12th passes INT'd, 14th D INTs, 12th pass O, 12th punt ret D and punt ret O, 13th and 118th nationally RZ D, 84th nationally rush O, 125th ncaa sacks allowed, 12th D sacks, 14th scoring O, 129th ncaa TFL allowed, 11th ACC pass eff O, 14th total O, 14th turnover margin

Louisville - good: 4th 3rd down conv O (46%), #1 first down O, 1st fumbles recovered, 4th net punting, #1 pass O, #2 pass y per compl, 3rd ACC rush O, 1st ACC scoring O, 2nd ACC fewest TFL all'd, 1st total O

Not sure I want to do this any more. But stuff like this, you can do that, but I've never liked to bet just of stat rankings. It is nice when I have a hunch and stuff like that supports it. I'm not going to ML Louisville because I don't want to so I'm not going to let stats talk me into it.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Ole Miss +220....I am going to be on the Rebels as well. I mentioned it in the Week 7 thread and I'll mention it again but a road favorite in the SEC that opens at -7 just seems like a death nail to me. This is just my gut talking, but it seems like those TD road favorites go down left and right in the SEC. Stock in LSU is high again and ready to burst with a home dog who loves to play the Tigers. PS - and I still don't think the LSU offense is all that great.
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Ole Miss +7 1/2 and ML +235
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Yeah, Ole Miss. Only problem is their D is awful, but no doubt they will be inspired here and the talent advantage at some spots for LSU isn't what it has been. Last year's game was just 21-21 halftime.

So LSU beat an average Florida team on a missed xpt and trailed 0-20 to Auburn. Now credit to them from getting off the mat to beat Florida and to comeback vs an Auburn team that had been cruising nicely. But has our opinion of LSU really changed that much to have them be a 7 pt road fav?

Not sure I can create the kind of feeling I like to have for the teams that I think are worthy of the straight up money, but definitely think they are a live dog and will be looking plus pts.
 
Here are my 5 for this week. All locked and loaded at BOL earlier this week.

5 small ML Dog Plays risking $50 each
327 Akron +500
329 Kent +725
347 Syracuse +565
363 Wyoming +445
373 Idaho +465
 
I will be going back to the well on a small Syracuse ML.

In addition to some other things already mentioned in this thread, I would rate Toledo as a better than Cuse overall O, but don't think it is a huge drop to Cuse. Rockets did post 429y, led at HT and only trailed by 8 in the 4th qrt. Toledo was also 57% 3rd down in that game and Woodside threw for 342 with a 3-0 ratio. Vs Duke, Miami won big, but partly because Duke was in the RZ 3x in the first half and came away with just 6 pts, so Devils had some chances to be competitive there before the game got further away from them. Before last week, FSU's 406 TY on Canes D was Noles highest output of the season.

Eric Dungey has graded as the 4th best QB in the nation through 7 weeks according to PFF. He throws to Steve Ishmael and Ervin Phillips who are the top active receiving duo in the nation, combining for 366 career receptions, more than any other active tandem. Ishmael currently leads the country in receptions (62) and is second in receptions per game (8.9), while Phillips is third (56) and fifth (8.0) in those respective categories.

Miami front 7 is strong and will be a problem for Orange...just as last week the Clemson front was. But if Dungey can survive long enough, frequently enough he should be able to make plays vs a suspect secondary, like he did last week.

Miami is really thin at DB only 4-5 CBs, 5 if Delaney returns this week, he is listed on depth chart after missing last week (was erroneously reported as out for the year by ESPN last week after injury vs FSU). In terms of depth, Manny Diaz was quoted as saying the team is "5 or 6 DBs" short. They lost 4 Sr starters from last year. He also said that Miami has trouble simulating other team's best players in practice on O and D as a result and there is "no way" they can simulate the speed in which Syracuse will want to operate in practice. Some interesting comments.

Syracuse has potential to move the ball and be productive on Miami D.

Miami O, as I said before, is going to be a problem for Syracuse D that still isn't good yet. It is better, but not good. That is the biggest threat to losing a Syracuse wager is if their D isn't good enough to get some stops and keep the O within striking distance. Miami's OL isn't great and Rosier isn't real consistent. So there could be some hope Cuse can disrupt some and get Rosier to make a key mistake or two.

The last two road games Syracuse only lost to LSU by 9 and NCSt by 8. Keeping this game within 17? Sure. Back door if nothing else should be open. Hard to see Miami up by more than 3 scores unless some unforseen and unanticipated turnovers kill Orange. But even better, more than hanging in the number, I don't think many would be surprised to see Miami drop a game they aren't supposed to. Miami is playing well, but are they really back or that good? If they came in here 3-2 instead of 5-0 what would our opinion and this line be? They aren't that far away from being 3-2.
 
I feel a little like I shot my wad last night. I really liked that ODU ML play.

I don't play a bunch, normally just 1-4 and a week like this where I feel there are too many potential ones that I can't narrow down I just take the spread. I don't like to force them. I need to have a certain feeling I get, a certain passion in the play. Syracuse is the only thing I have close to that feeling today unless I have some change of heart in the next hour or so.
 
Excellent reads / post from everyone. Visiting this thread is like visiting a candy-store!! However, I would like to propose a toast to D8! You were my mentor and I would like to try and prove my worth as your student in your absence. Here we go! To D8! :cheers6:

Adding:
  1. 10/21/2017 2:00 PM College Football 329 Kent State* +450 vs Ohio for 1st Half
  2. 10/21/2017 12:00 PM College Football 344 Rutgers* +250 vs Purdue for 1st Half
  3. 10/21/2017 12:00 PM College Football 373 Idaho* +340 vs Missouri for 1st Half
  4. 10/21/2017 12:00 PM College Football 407 Iowa State* +190 vs Texas Tech for 1st Half
Risking $11.00 (11 parlays at $1.00) To Win $587.71

If I am fortunate enough to win, I'll add the rest of the teams in post #43 for for some evening degenerate action. Best of luck to everyone!!

:tiphat:
 
s--k said:
Are your parlays two teamers? ISU and Rutgers!
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Yeah man...I did do 2 & 3 teamer RR's although I forgot to post it. But the fact I put in "11 parlays at $1" should be proof enuff. A little azz-chapped at Idaho but I got my money back and have a shot at a 3-teamer if Kent State performs a miracle.

We'll see....:eatingchinese:
 
Last one.....3, 4, & 5-teamer RR.

  1. 10/21/2017 7:30 PM College Football 351 Wake Forest* +140 vs Georgia Tech for 1st Half
  2. 10/21/2017 10:15 PM College Football 363 Wyoming* +315 vs Boise State for 1st Half
  3. 10/21/2017 4:00 PM College Football 383 Oregon* +170 vs UCLA for 1st Half
  4. 10/21/2017 4:00 PM College Football 404 Kansas State* +315 vs Oklahoma for 1st Half
  5. 10/21/2017 10:30 PM College Football 413 Fresno State* +185 vs San Diego State for 1st Half
Risking $10.56 (16 parlays at $0.66) To Win $757.08

:fingerscrossed:
 
There we go...SJ is the difference maker...he's going to have to run that PR option more in this game.

:cheerclap:
 
If they're better and make more plays, what can you do? Tip your cap to them. But if we are in position to make plays and fail or hurt ourselves that is always what drives me crazy.
 
Yeah, they are just better. Nothing you can do...atleast you got the Vols next week!
 
In football, we are to the Vols what gasoline is to fire. I had more confidence in this game than hosting the Vols next week.

:siren:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Last one.....3, 4, & 5-teamer RR.

  1. 10/21/2017 7:30 PM College Football 351 Wake Forest* +140 vs Georgia Tech for 1st Half
  2. 10/21/2017 10:15 PM College Football 363 Wyoming* +315 vs Boise State for 1st Half
  3. 10/21/2017 4:00 PM College Football 383 Oregon* +170 vs UCLA for 1st Half
  4. 10/21/2017 4:00 PM College Football 404 Kansas State* +315 vs Oklahoma for 1st Half
  5. 10/21/2017 10:30 PM College Football 413 Fresno State* +185 vs San Diego State for 1st Half
Risking $10.56 (16 parlays at $0.66) To Win $757.08

:fingerscrossed:
Click to expand...

4 out of 5 what does that pay?!?!
 
s--k said:
4 out of 5 what does that pay?!?!
Click to expand...
Wow! What a nice surprise to wake up to. I could not stay up and watch the last two but they hit!! I think D8 would have been proud of me. 6-2-1 record on the day on plays where I used his teachings. Sh*t the bed on games I capped on my normal gut feels. All told it was $394 total because all 16 parlays paid something since Oregon pushed. I think I'll use D8's method again this week!!

winner.jpg
:cokeline:
 
Man...using the odds I posted, a $100 bettor would have been up $1,195 with a 6-2-1 record. Probably a fairly large understatement to say D8 knew what he was doing. Looking forward to finding more this coming week. Hope they're still out there! I remember him saying the lines tighten up considerably by rivalry week. So, what's that?? Two or three weeks away?

:bluehead:
 
Wonder if it works for NFL? There are two games today where a dog has 1) better defense and 2) QB with better rating. Those two dogs are Cincy & Washington. Both are sitting at +155 ML for 1st Half at my book.

:pondering:
 
JRock, I have thought about NFL but its such a damn crap shot nowa days. MayBe we should start to keep an eye on it
 
JROCK1966 said:
Wow! What a nice surprise to wake up to. I could not stay up and watch the last two but they hit!! I think D8 would have been proud of me. 6-2-1 record on the day on plays where I used his teachings. Sh*t the bed on games I capped on my normal gut feels. All told it was $394 total because all 16 parlays paid something since Oregon pushed. I think I'll use D8's method again this week!!

View attachment 29907
:cokeline:
Click to expand...

:cheers3:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Man...using the odds I posted, a $100 bettor would have been up $1,195 with a 6-2-1 record. Probably a fairly large understatement to say D8 knew what he was doing. Looking forward to finding more this coming week. Hope they're still out there! I remember him saying the lines tighten up considerably by rivalry week. So, what's that?? Two or three weeks away?

:bluehead:
Click to expand...
They are always there you just gotta find em. And this week is Tennessee/KentLucky week maybe we can do something other than kick FGs this week
:boxing3:
 
What the hell...played these two. I've often thought of a a similar system for bball. I know defensive FG% should be considered. I've just struggled with the QB equivalent for bball. I was thinking offensive 3pt FG% can definitely alter a bball game but I'm not sure it has the magnitude of effect on bball that QB play has in football. I think one should also possibly consider A/TO ratio for point guards or maybe ave. team offensive turnovers? Anyway, just experimenting with the Lakeshow as they are dogged at home but have a better off. 3pt FG% and def. FG% than the Hornets. Sorry if I'm posting these in the wrong thread. I just thought it ties into the conversation better here. Good luck in what you all decide!!

2 & 3-team RR's...
  1. 10/22/2017 4:25 PM NFL Football 455 Cincinnati Bengals* +150 vs Pittsburgh Steelers for 1st Half
  2. 10/23/2017 8:30 PM NFL Football 477 Washington Redskins* +160 vs Philadelphia Eagles for 1st Half
  3. 10/22/2017 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 706 Los Angeles Lakers* +125 vs New Orleans Pelicans for 1st Half
Risking $20.00 (4 parlays at $5.00) To Win $143.01

  1. 10/22/2017 4:25 PM NFL Football 455 Cincinnati Bengals* +170 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. 10/23/2017 8:30 PM NFL Football 477 Washington Redskins* +175 vs Philadelphia Eagles
  3. 10/22/2017 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 706 Los Angeles Lakers* +145 vs New Orleans Pelicans
Risking $20.00 (4 parlays at $5.00) To Win $174.86

:tiphat:
 
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