So I thought I would try and look for dogs with better or comparable defenses than the favs, an advantage in TO margin, and more experience at QB. Here is a a list I came up with. The lone exception was Oklahoma as obviously their QB is one of the best in the country. K. State also starts a senior and I thought maybe there is a chance of a letdown after the Red River rivalry last week. These would all be 1st Half ML plays per what D8 used to tell me what to look for. I'll post some stats tomorrow but I will say Oregon had some eye-popping differences over UCLA. Thoughts ?
Iowa State
Idaho
Rutgers
Kent State
Oregon
Kansas State
Wake Forest
Wyoming
Fresno State
:abouttime:
I like that thinking. I've looked for similar things sometimes to see if there are some nice dogs that do some things well or find flawed favs with weaknesses. I don't always do that though, I usually rely on my gut and what I think I know and then see if I can support it with numbers and angles.
I've never thought much in terms of finding the first half ML dogs. That would take some time for my head to make that adjustment.
Just on the teams, Oregon really intrigues me. But obviously I hate their QB situation. Huge mismatch at that position there. They yanked the freshman QB last week and put in the guy who came off the bench vs Cal. Names are escaping me. Not sure who they start this week, not sure which one is the better option. Maybe they announced. Rosen is back to playing how I've always felt about him, just another college QB that comes and goes. Nothing special. Had some moments, but lots of no name guys have moments through the years and their names fade with time. Rosen's will too. Having said that, UCLA has a clear advantage at QB this week vs Ducks. Do think Oregon D better than some might give them credit for, it is certainly better than UCLA D, but just about anyone is better than Bruins D. I like the Oregon staff better as well. Not sure of any of the statistical comparisons, but Oregon does have my interest this week.
Wyoming? Boise out for revenge for last year's upset. Boise plays some pretty good D. Not sure how Cowboys hope to exploit it this year. It took all they had last year and everyone of importance on that O is gone except for Allen...and it shows badly. Boise up and down, never know what you'll get from their O. Honestly there just isn't much for me to like about this Wyoming team.
Wake Forest is a team I've been chewing on this week. Their D is solid and they have some new weapons on O this year (Dortch and Byrd). While they don't play GT every year they have faced Army the last 2 years and have this bye week to prep for Tech. I think Wake is a solid team. So they would have some potential. Would prefer Wofford to be the QB (missed Clemson), but do think that Hinton can be effective as well, tough assignment for him vs Clemson last week. Wofford is the better of the two.
Hard to like Kansas St much without Ertz at QB. That and it has just been a bad matchup for Cats the last few years. I don't see OU letting down after the Texas game, they can't afford to at this point with the ISU loss. I would assume they are acutely aware of that.
I do kind of like Fresno. Like I mentioned earlier, Fresno has been awful the last 2 years and somehow their games against San Diego St have surprisingly been close. Bulldogs playing with confidence right now. I would caution whatever stats might say, Fresno have played some week teams of late, but also played Bama and Wash so maybe the stats evened out. SD St has played a pretty decent schedule.
Not sure Idaho has the O to keep up with Missouri. Kent St will not score much unless Ohio helps them, so hard to count on that. Under the radar MAC respect to Kent D, but Ohio should be ok in that game. ISU over TTech, I suppose that is possible. I don't have any real opinion on that game.
I welcome any feelings or numbers or angles you have on any games. I'm far from any kind of crystal ball, but enjoy talking about any kind of teams/games if that helps you walk through things.
fficebasketball:
