Week #8 B1G...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright folks,

We're into the meat of the conference season and things are starting to become very interesting!

First of all, holy shlit Penn State. Honestly I thought this team was going through the motions in September. The Oregon loss wasn't all that alarming. The Ducks defense is excellent. These past two weeks though have totally changed the outlook for this program. Start poaching those recruits!

I never thought they would can Frames. Not with that buyout! Apparently there is a lot of traction on both sides that Rhule might go to Happy Valley? Interesting. Is Cignetti too old? Not interested? He's local. That seemed too obvious right away.

Anyways, the rest of the season is a crapshoot. The schedule is still pretty average other than the Ohio State game.

What a game out in Eugene. That wasn't always the prettiest game, but each defense was damn good. I watched most of this and that's what I needed to see with Indiana. My one question with the Ducks is why they didn't try to run the ball more. They were pretty solid when they did. Dante didn't have a lot of time nor open receivers. The Hoosiers offense wasn't great but made winning plays. So. Well. Coached!

Shout-out to FADETHEHYPE. Your team is a factor and might even grab a bye in the playoffs. Despite your antics on the site late nights, I'll give ya credit for a helluva team this year. They have made the next step since last season.

I enjoy the emails my guy :).

I'm going to tell you something. Well, a few things...

I've been higher on this USC team this year preseason and a bit into the season than at any other time in the Riley era. Yes, I think the defense still has some work to do. Are they as bad as the Caleb years? No.

This past week, in reality, was a great situational play. I should have recognized that a bit better. Last year's game really stuck in Lincoln's head quite a bit. The banter during the week about the sellout etc was a smidge of extra motivation. The Trojans bye week off a very tough loss to Illinois had the team fired up as well.

SC had a damn good game plan on offense. A few peeps I talk to a lot regarding Michigan worried that the Trojans would attack the blitz with dinks and screens all night. The adjustments of Wink were in question. Honestly, felt like they were running downhill all night.

USC attacked early and the Michigan first offensive series was poorly planned out. The Wolverines most definitely could run to the gut as planned -- but once Mr Haynes started cooking an injury occured to his side. Huge bummer, as he was going to run for 175+ vs that rush defense. That changed the game a lot as far as the offense goes.

All that being said, Michigan was an underdog and didn't execute well vs a better team. I expected a loss this summer out there and that's what we saw.

Now, let's go inside this one a bit more...

- Rush defense was highly disappointing. I mentioned during the MSU game how I was impressed with the physical running of the SC backs. We saw that again! I respect that a lot.

- Underwood had several beautiful passes but also a few he'd likely want back. The one that in essence ended any chances occured. Mich offense started getting into rhythm and on 1st n 10 around the SC 30 Bryce zips a beautiful pass to the EZ. Marsh couldn't bring it in and instead of a great TD drive, the next play is an interception down the sidelines making something happen. Hey, down 14, you have to do something. But, that was a force. Bottom line, catch the one on the previous play.

- I do think with a healthy Justice that Michigan scores 21-24 at least. He was really starting to cook.

- Big breakthrough with Andrew Marsh at WR. Huge for the stretch run.

- Back to SC... This is a legit top 10-15 team that can sneak into the playoffs. This October schedule will dictate A LOT! Pretty ridiculous that the Trojans are right back at things in South Bend. The second bye week follows to prep for a trip to Nebraska. This is it right here, win both and playoffs are more than likely. Win one, and take care of November and we're likely cooking! I do think grabbing some +6500 is worth a pizza bet.

- Now, I don't want people thinking I'm pumping up SC because they beat my team. I simply like this team and QB quite a bit. Defense is solid enough and they are very physical. We'll know soon enough if they are a serious contender.

Now, let's start talking about the SC and UM rivals match-up...Holy shlit.

I told you all in this space last week I liked MSU. I was close to spending a wager on them, a few times during the week. I thought this was a good situational play! UCLA with a bit of a letdown spot, traveling East, and kicking off at 9am Pacific!! Meanwhile, the Spartans have been playing hard all year despite the lack of talent. They fought all game in LA back in September. They fought back in Lincoln. This, though, was an actual quitting. Holy smokes! I'm trying to hear from my peeps up there as to what's going on behind the scenes...

Simply put, that's embarrassing on homecoming. Let me credit the Bruins for the past few weeks. Incredible football. Their coaching change is officially paying off!

I'm not sure what's up in East Lansing but they want coach gone out of nowhere. They're firing up the "Urban Meyer" threads again. Yes, a few years ago that thought C.U.M. was their next coach.

The irony of Coach Smith? When Foster was let go in Los Angeles there was very premature speculation that the Bruins might look at him as their new coach. Frankly put, he's a West Coast guy and this move to East Lansing was always bit odd. He's been a solid coach up there but out of nowhere has lost the team. It seems. Shall see.

Next up for MSU - @ Indiana and home vs Michigan.

Yikes.

I didn't see much of Ohio State and Illinois but that box score is quite interesting.

First, the OSU defense is nasty.

Second, Illinois out gained OSU.

This was never a game though. This Buckeyes offense is interesting though. They are slightly morphing the last 2.5 years into Michigan.

Flattering ;)

Anyways, they'll coast into the postseason. Unless something wild happens we should see a fantastic defensive battle between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes in December.

Nebraska offense was humming at Maryland. Solid road win. Those are the games you simply have to win. We've seen those types of games go the wrong way!

Oh, one more mention about last week's games -- Goodbye Luke Fickell!

Holy crap I know a few thought the week before might be his resignation game. We were simply off a week! That's a wild, wild result.

Next up before the bye week? Ohio State and then off to Eugene.

EPIC timing.

I'd say he's gone as they head into the buy week!

That's enough about last week.... ONWARD!
 
Back to the in-state schools real quick...

I was offered a ticket to MSU and UCLA. A few buddies were going, one a grad there, and they wanted me to go see the stadium. I've actually never been there. Anyways, a prior commitment held that off. I mention it because I was just thinking about how I would act in a stadium full of fans of a school I'm not fond of. Obviously I'd have bets and let that shape my "fandom" but the whole experience would be interesting.

Anyone have a situation like that? Or, how is it going to a CFB game as a neutral observor?

Back do those Wolverines! Before the season I looked at the three road games in the first 6 weeks. My expectation was 1 or 2 wins. Three means that they are a MNC contender. Two means fighting for a playoff spot. One means fighting for 9 wins this year. Winless would have been highly disappointing.

Bottom line is this -- they are step below teams like SC and OU. Both teams had exceptional QB play and damn solid defense. In fact, OU was great on D. Michigan isn't ready to win those -- yet.

Young team that is building talent in a few important spots.

The amount of despair on the boards is wild to me. Yes, there are concerns from the game itself (poor defensive game plan being the biggest for me). Yes, patience is tough. But, the better team won and those types of games show you where you need to add pieces in the off-season.

Wide Receiver and all Special Teams are killing this team.

Anyways, let the whining commence at 4pm Saturday if they lose at home to the Huskies.
 
Some quick hitters for this weekend and we'll chat more each day...


Nebraska at Minnesota is a Friday nighter. Minnesota won vs Purdue bur frankly lost that box score handily. This would be a very good win for the Huskers on a short week. How's the matchup @cubsker .

Highly pumped that Mich and Washington is at noon. First, that helps UM as the Huskies internal clock is off. Second, I have a commitment that late afternoon.

This is a dangerous game for Winks defense. This Washington offense is so damn good. We can't be blitzing all day. They need to do it with a purpose!

Washington defense is bad. Michigan must be on the offensive from the beginning and play from ahead. Haynes is questionable but I believe he plays.

I'm a bit hesitant here due to last weekend but indi believe we have over potential here!

Northwestern off a huge win vs Purdue is everything we needed in life, right? Pass.

Ohio State heads into Madison in what could be part 2 in the Luke Fickell Funeral. This could be a very sad scene to be honest...

Oh well, I'm here for it!!

Wisky TT should be 7. Let's find a way...

Michigan State tries to get up off the mat in Bloomington. The good news is Indy can't be emotionally up for this. At least not after the start of the game. The Hoosiers are excellent in the trenches and the Spartans are the exact opposite. Perhaps a situational TT under on MSU.

Curious if MSU is looking at a new QB? I'll get over to their boards before bed.

We have 6:30 Eastern start in Piscataway for the Rutgers and Oregon game. This helps the Ducks a bit. With that being said, this is a bit of a hangover game. The Scarlet Knights defense is so bad though. Oregon should take out some frustration. Situational, live TT for myself.

New era at Penn State takes them to Iowa City. The Hawks off a demolition of Wisconsin. This feels ugly. Total observor on this game. I half expected a total in the 30s again.

Maryland starting their usual stumble. Both those losses at home were very tough. They blew the Washington game. They had the nice 3rd quarter last week vs Nebraska. Both games there.

Nope.

UCLA coming back home with a lot of confidence! Dare I say the Bruins ML might be worth a stab at -165?

Crazy times in the Big Ten.


Lastly, prime time brings us to South Bend. The Irish host the Trojans. The Irish offense is very good. Although the past few weeks they have been inconsistent. The ND defense certainly has taken a step back. How will SC handle the taller grass!?

Total is painted 61.5 at last glance for good reason. I'll find something on this game regarding totals!

Anyways, jump in and let's talk!
 
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Oregon

4. USC

5. Michigan
6. Nebraska
7. Washington
8. Illinois
9. Iowa

A Mich win this weekend puts a "space" below their name.



Rutgers, Michigan State and Purdue at the bottom. Once the Wisconsin defense gives up, they'll be right there.
 
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Mich St absolutely should change QBs. The backup finished off one TD drive and then led another in garbage time vs us. Obviously not the runner Chiles is, but he was hitting his receivers when he got a chance.

Minny seems like another good matchup for us. They haven't been able to run the ball all that well and I think they have a worse QB than the MD kid, who was decent but not great.

Not a huge fan of the short week and then you get the PSU distraction and the fact that Minny has really had our number and im going to expect another close game. Emmett Johnson is from Minny, wanted to go there, was the high school player of the year, and didn't get a sniff from PJ. He's had this one circled for a long time. And now he's coming off his best or 2nd best game in his career. Our OL did quite a bit better vs MD than they had vs either of the Michigan teams, so maybe they're figuring things out a bit. Raiola made some great throws, but also threw 3 INTs, 2 of which were definitely his fault and 1 that was probably on the WR for a pick 6. He also had one really bad INT vs each Michigan team so he's got to remedy this for us to win these kind of games more comfortably and cover TD spreads.
 
The rankings are funny this week. Cincy #24, Nebraska #25, each with 1 loss. I seem to recall being in attendance for the cincy loss.
 
The injury bug at Michigan is for real.

This game is getting tougher each passing day.
 
The injury bug at Michigan is for real.

This game is getting tougher each passing day.
On this end..

The best offensive player for Michigan has yet to practice this week -- Justice Haynes.

Apparently there is another offensive player injured as well. That seems to be hush hush.

Not good.
 
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Very solid 1st half on both sides for Michigan other than the final drive on defense. That's partly Demond making a few great plays.

That being said, missed opportunities on the 4th n 1 and the missed FG from the best kicker in the country.

A few drops too.

Underwood 15-20 but take away the drops he's 18-20. Very nice 1st half.

Bottom line though is Michigan should be up 3-7 points and is tied. Washington on a double possession. This game can change REALLY quick. As I said in the in-game after the missed FG -- that was the time to get Washington. Shall see.

Huge 2h for this season tbh.
 
I would recommend Wash TT over 11.5 in the 2h.

I honestly like the 2h over 24 as well.

Both teams will score more this half.
 
I'm going to play the prop @2daBank noted in his thread down in Bloomington

Hemby o70.5 rush -124

Spartan run defense is not good. Rain heading into the area mid game should place an emphasis on the running game. Add in a bit fav here.

This feels attainable and I like the number I found.
 
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C'mon, stop this!

4th straight year.

None of those matchups have featured a good MSU team.
 
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