Week 8 1-AA Discussion......

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
19-5-1.... YTD

Hopefully we can have another successful week.

Games on the radar....

North Dakota State @ Minnesota -

Last year's game ended in a 10-9 victory for Minnesota, who blocked a field goal at the end of the game to get the win. This line will be very, very interesting. I will almost without a doubt be on NDST. This game should be an absolute shootout. Also, there will be no look ahead to next week, with 0-6 Southern Utah on deck, but I expect the opposite from Minny, as they go to the Big House next weekend. So why would they care about this 1-AA school?

There are also some huge games going on in the SoCon this weekend, so it will be interesting to see the lines that come out there.

New Hampshire @ Hofstra will be a huge game in the CAA.

Presbyterian @ Coastal - It will be interesting to see the line on this game. Coastal just beat a terrible D2 team, 51-0, but had 3 players arrested when Police found 3lbs of dope and 2 hand guns in their car, on the way home from the game. The players weren't any of the big name guys, but the buzz this is creating on campus and around the community is pretty big. With that said, Coastal will have to score in bunches to win the game, to keep up with PC's O, let alone cover, so depending on the points, I may be on PC.

Let me know if there are any other games of interest.
 
amazing what you do with this 1AA gridiron.

NDST is the one who took CMU to the woodshed on the road by 30 right?
 
I've been refreshing, waiting for that NDSU line...

I don't know who said they were #18, cause when I checked a couple days ago they were #55...
 
NDSU is definitely a solid play this week. The key will be to get on this one as soon as it opens. Unfortunately the limit will be 57.50, but I am sure the line is gonna jump by more than a few points between open and kickoff. I actually have them as the fav this week, but perception probably will keep the line from coming out where it should be in all reality.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
19-5-1.... YTD

Hopefully we can have another successful week.

Games on the radar....

North Dakota State @ Minnesota -

Last year's game ended in a 10-9 victory for Minnesota, who blocked a field goal at the end of the game to get the win. This line will be very, very interesting. I will almost without a doubt be on NDST. This game should be an absolute shootout. Also, there will be no look ahead to next week, with 0-6 Southern Utah on deck, but I expect the opposite from Minny, as they go to the Big House next weekend. So why would they care about this 1-AA school?

There are also some huge games going on in the SoCon this weekend, so it will be interesting to see the lines that come out there.

New Hampshire @ Hofstra will be a huge game in the CAA.

Presbyterian @ Coastal - It will be interesting to see the line on this game. Coastal just beat a terrible D2 team, 51-0, but had 3 players arrested when Police found 3lbs of dope and 2 hand guns in their car, on the way home from the game. The players weren't any of the big name guys, but the buzz this is creating on campus and around the community is pretty big. With that said, Coastal will have to score in bunches to win the game, to keep up with PC's O, let alone cover, so depending on the points, I may be on PC.

Let me know if there are any other games of interest.
Click to expand...


Hoopstar - Since I am a favs player, I usually check those out before I move on to looking at dogs, so at first glance here is what caught my eye from a favorable player matchup standpoint with no deep analysis involved.

Wofford, UMass, Richmond, Montana, and Howard.

These should all be solid home favs as they either have favorable Off vs Def matchups, or they are playing teams who are hapless at best (speaking of the last 2, who have No Colo and A&T). Interested in hearing your thoughts on whether or not any of these 5 teams caught your eye as well?
 
CB -

Here's a quick rundown as to what I think of each team/game you listed.

Wofford- Yes their offense is absolutely nasty, but Elon is no slouch either. Elon has the #3 passing attack in 1-AA, and I have no interest in laying DD points against a team that can air it out, and get a couple of quick scores to keep things interesting. Also, with Woffords pass D in the mid 80's, could there be some trouble here?

UMass - I'm thinking this line is in the 20's? UMass off a tough 4OT victory against Nova? NE has been playing some tough ball, losing by only 7 at James Madison, and 10 to Deleware, in the last 2 weeks, not bad at all. Not much interest here.

Richmond - Another game that will probably be in DD's. 2 teams that love to run, and James Madison next week for Richmond, with potential playoff implications on the line, perhaps a look ahead?

Montana - This team is playing some absolutely lifeless football. They gained 150 total yards against a lower 100 D from Sacramento State? N. Colorado is terrible across the board, so maybe the Grizz get it going this week, but I don't want to lay 25-30 points hoping they do.

Howard - Just a bad team playing a worse team. NC A&M blows, yes, but maybe after that 0-7 start, they get a surprise win here? Probably not, but there surely has to be better games to look at.


Of course this is just a brief run down, and I could be way off where I see the line being, but if they are, I may adjust accordingly. I'll just have to wait for 5Dimes to surprise me.
 
As always, I appreciate the response hoops. I haven't had time to dig deep as those were first glance thoughts. The Howard game intrigues me b/c it is homecoming and I think A&T has thrown in the towel. I love fading teams that have called it a day, so will look a little deeper into that one. Thanks again!
 
hoops, do they ever have lines on La Salle games? They are I-AA, but they are easily the worst team in that division.
 
Dmoney-

I don't recall seeing any, but then again 3 of their 6 games have been against D2 or lower teams.

CB- Thanks for making me look into them more than I had initially did. I've been spending too much time hunting the last few days instead of looking at all the match ups.
 
Here are a few that I have added to the short list, now that I have had time to look over numbers and stuff...

Bucknell at home vs GTown - hoping for 10 or less
Bucknell is pretty bad but they did beat Marist by 31 at home, and GT has road losses of 29 and 55 so far this year. This one is about the running game matchups as Bucknell has the 26th rated rushing attack and they will be going up against the Hoyas' 115th rated run defense. GT is 0-7 and have lost 9 straight dating back to LY.

Cornell at home vs Brown - hoping for less than a FG
I like Cornell's passing game against Brown's secondary. Big Red has the #18 passing offense, and they are going up against the #112 passing defense of Brown. Brown has played only 1 road game I believe and that was a 17-24 loss at a Harvard Crimson team which is mediocre at best this year.

Citadel on the road at WCU - Hoping for something reasonable
Western has a bottom 20 defense and they are going up against one of the top offenses in 1-AA. WCU can't stop the run or pass, while the Citadel can do both. This one could be blowout city, but still hoping for a reasonable number.
 
Slight lean on Dayton on the road at Valpo. Dayton may be one of the few teams that can actually slow down the Valpo rushing attack, but the fact that they have to play this one on the road is what makes this a shaky lean as Valpo has been solid at home this year. This is a big game for them, so probably won't risk it.
 
SIU at home vs Missouri State. Mizz St is a solid team, but SIU should be too much for them to handle on the road as SIU is a well balanced team that can hurt you in a number of different ways. If this line is light, would definitely lean towards SIU at home.
 
SD is another lean as long as the line is somewhere in this stratosphere vs Jax as SD devours the weak, while Jax rolls over and takes it against superior competition. This line might be too high though, but not sure if there is a line that could be too high in this matchup.
 
Gotta head out for a few hours, will be back around 930pm. Hope the lines don't come out while I am gonna, but I am pretty sure they will and all value will be lost by the time I get back.
 
Guys, I'll probably be playing Northeastern against UMass if i get a decent number of points. AS Hoopster pointed out, NU has played JM and Del close, winning both ATS and I almost always fade teams coming off multiple ot games. I would need the projected 3TDs plus to play this one.
Brown is better than I thought they would be. Holy Cross had atough time covering the spread against them and URI neede OT to get by them.
Last week they comfortably beat Princeton as a 2 point fav , or was it dog- I forgot. Anyway, they lost 3 close games to teams much better than Cornell. Harvard not as good as last year but still better than everyone else except Yale, had trouble beating Brown at home and outclassed Cornell on the road.
I like Hofstra against UNH. Don't know how healthy Santos is for UNH, although his sub has done OK, Keepers CFB ratings has Hofstra rated 10+ better. Line should be less than a TD, I would think.
Bucknell-Georgetown : Hard to see this as a bargain unless line is in single digits. GTs close loss to Fordham last week is a red flag. Fordham is better than Bucknell.
I think Holy Cross is the best team in that conference but they have a tough 3 weeks on the road vs Lehigh, Bucknell, and Fordham. If they get through those OK, they play for the conf title at home against Lafayette.
I'll be playing HC this week unless the line totally surprises me.
I'll stop here because it's purely guesswork until 5Dimes puts up some numbers.
 
Kinda surprised they haven't released the Saturday lines yet. Gotta fly to Chicago tomorrow morning, so hope they come out before then as I won't be around the computer again till Saturday once I head out.
 
This is a joke. 9:10, and still no lines?

They've consistently came out at 1:00ish on Wednesday. I believe they even came out on a Tuesday morning, at 7:30 once.

Pussies....
 
From what I can find on Santos, he will be a game time decision on Saturday. If he doesn't go, it'll be a redshirt Freshman making his first start against a team that relies heavily on their offense. That D showed up against Deleware, but can a unit that's ranked #106 in the country, do it 2 big games in a row? Good look Bull.

CB, the line in San Diego will be 30ish. I would also side with you on Cornell over Brown. Their D just looks way too vulnerable.

I do like SIU to rebound after the loss to N. Iowa.

But I'm done guessing for the rest of the night.
 
Here is my updated list of leans...Unfortunately probably won't be able to play any of em since who knows when the lines will actually come out this week...

I expect all of these to be favs, many medium to large sized favs actually...
Bucknell
SIU
Cornell
Citadel
San Diego
Montana
Richmond
Southern
Hofstra
 
only two lines i see up so far are

norfolk state -5.5
florida AM

Arkansas pine bluff
alabama AM -15
 
Just when I was getting ready to get into the game with 1-AA, 5dimes disappoints by not getting the lines up for Saturday. Oh well, no plays for me in 1-AA this weekend, as I am off for the airport and won't be back till Saturday. Kinda sucks because we actually had a good discussion going this week too.
 
The Ivy League games and UMass Northeastern are up
UMass 20
Harvard 15
Yale 15
Cornell 3
Dartmouth 10
That's all at 9:55 Thursday am.
 
These line movements are ridiculous, but here's what I got. 5Dimes should be embarrassed.

PC +10 - Held off too long, and could have gotten 11, but down to 8.5 now. I'll have a little writeup for this one.
Holy Cross -5 - Why did it open so low? Instantly went to -7
Central Arkansas -5 - Also instantly went to -7

And I may be today's winner....

North Dakota State +1 - Went to -2 as soon as I refreshed the page. Did anyone else get better?
 
Toughest set of lines I've ever seen for the games I am most familiar with.
They may shut me out this week, LOL. Well, hardly.
GL Hoopsstar
 
ETG-

That's a tough question to answer. If it were my money, I'd still play it at -3, because I am looking for a pretty decisive win for NDST. Either way, I think this game will be decided by 7+, whichever way it goes. I just don't see a FG fest like last year. Does Minny decide to pack it up this week, and call it a season? How will having Michigan on deck next weekend effect them? How will they rebound off of a 2OT loss?

Will I need the 1 point I got? I'd be safe to say that I'm 99.5% sure I won't.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
ETG-

That's a tough question to answer. If it were my money, I'd still play it at -3, because I am looking for a pretty decisive win for NDST. Either way, I think this game will be decided by 7+, whichever way it goes. I just don't see a FG fest like last year. Does Minny decide to pack it up this week, and call it a season? How will having Michigan on deck next weekend effect them? How will they rebound off of a 2OT loss?

Will I need the 1 point I got? I'd be safe to say that I'm 99.5% sure I won't.
Click to expand...


:cheers:
 
lindetrain said:
-4.5 now.

It's my own damn fault for not checking earlier today...
Click to expand...

I made the old lady stop cutting my hair, in the middle of my haircut, because I knew it would be coming soon. And sure enough, there it was glistening in the sun.


:36_11_6:
 
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr id="special" class="bg4" align="center"><td colspan="2" align="left">North Dakota State Bison at Minnesota Golden Gophers</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">
MN.gif
Minnesota 45 </td><td align="left">
NDST.gif
North Dakota State 6</td></tr></tbody></table>
clearly the Harmon Forecast pays no attention to CFB in 2007 or Divsion 1AA

This would be the biggest cover in the history of college football (using the NDSU -4.5 line)

Speaking of that, you still think its a good play hoopstar?
 
Here's a little rambling about the Coastal/PC game.....

This is a small campus/community. This drug bust has been all over the news/in the class rooms/ in the news papers all week. Just a huge distraction for a team that as nothing going for them right now.

The offense is stagnant, at best. Yes, they did win 51-0 against a D3 team that was 1-6 going into the game, and yes they did limit them to like 89 yards in total O, but come on. PC has a pretty sick passing attack, and should be able to get it going against Coastal. They do have the #1 pass defense in the country, giving up only 73ypg, but that's because teams can run all day on them, so why pass? They gave up 460+yds on the ground to GA Southern, including 2 200yd rushers. James Madison gained 360+ on the ground, and only dropped back 13 times.

On the offensive side, Richardson is absolute garbage. He single handedly lost the game at Furman for them, and there is a reason he was at WR full time last year, he blows.

Also, Coastal has gotten pretty strict about drinking. People use to start setting up for tailgating at like 7am, for a 7pm game. Now, the school won't allow anyone in the parking lots until 3 hours before game time. Campus police, who use to be seen playing beer pong, and taking part in gameday activities, have been replaced by State Troopers. There's no more "looking the other way" going on. Also, underagers are getting taken to the cleaners. There have been soooooo many citations handed out, that the parties have declined 10 fold since I've been there. One party got busted where 3 guys got hit with 71 underage charges a few weeks ago, at about $250 a pop, I believe. Also, now in the state of SC, all kegs are tagged, so if a party is busted, the purchaser of the keg is going down in flames.

So now, there's no booze no fun, and the grassy knoll that was the student section, in the North End zone is gone, and filled with Earth Movers, bulldozers, and other construction equipment, as they're in the process of constructing a $14 million Field House, that will be the home to all the new sports offices, and facilities.

All in all, Coastal will have to go score for score with PC, which is something I don't think they can do.
 
mester -

As I said before, I don't really think the points will come into play with this game. It'll probably be a TD either way. I'm not advocating playing it at -4.5, but then again I'm not saying not to play it. Look at the game, the numbers, and the situation, and see what you think. But remember, there has been almost a 6 point swing.

I guess what I'm trying to say, is if Minny wins by 14, will it matter that I have +1 and you have -4.5, no, we'll all be just a pile of losers.
 
I'm very, very close to adding Georgia Southern +15 at Appalachian State. I think is a pretty large # for a team to cover, that will inevitably lose the TOP battle. Ga Southern will run the ball, then they'll run the ball, then they'll run the ball again. And where's the Mountaineer's weakness? Their run D. I pointed that out before the Wofford game, and what happened? Wofford rushed for 316 yards.

Elon is the only team that hasn't rushed for 100 yards against Appy St., and that's because they don't run the ball against anyone. For Christ's sake, a D2 team that got blown out 48-7 still managed to run the ball for 136yds.

There are a few things that bother me. Armanti Edwards may/will probably be making his return this week. Will this be good or bad? He's been on the shelf for nearly a month. Will he be able to get into game speed right away?
Also, this Appy State is coming off a bye week.

I'm stuck on this one.
 
I agree with you on your NDSU-Minn comments.
The last I looked at 5Dimes thel ine was 7 1/2, so you have yourself a nice bet.
I looked hard at that ASU-GS game and was leaning toward ASU.
GS schedule doesn't impress me, and I also steer away from teams that lose a tough one in ot the prevous week. Not a play for me but GL whatever you decide.
I'm probably going with the dogs in those 15 pointers up in my neck of the woods.
Tough FCS card this week, IMO.
 
You're right bull. I'll more than likely lay off Ga Southern, then be pissed Saturday evening when they cover, has happened way too many times this season.

I doubt I'll add anymore to my card. 4 is more than enough for me.

GL to you as well.
 
So much for me getting in on any good opening lines haha..Well at least I got home before Saturday.

Here is what I am thinking after seeing these for the first time about 5mins ago. Need your thoughts hoops!

Citadel -14
Cornell -2
Hofstra -4.5

Those are the only three that are still under what I posted as lean lines earlier in the thread. Would love to know what these opened at if anyone has that info, thanks!
 
CB-

Citadel - I've thought about this a good deal. What scares me the most about this game, is that this is only WC 3rd home game so far this season. Yes they are 1-6, but they did play Georgia and Alabama, that's some pretty stout competition. They lost to Elon by 2 at home, and beat PC by 13. I know the Citadel has a great O, but what about that D last week? I know a good bit of Fuman's points came from Special Teams, and D, so maybe WC can score some too. I don't think I can play it.

Cornell - Bull seems to be a pro on the Ivy, and he seems to like Brown a little. Re read his post. I wouldn't disagree with anything he said, and wouldn't go against it, so no way I'll touch it.

Hofstra - Such a tossup with Santos being a game time decision. It is another must win game for UNH, like the Delaware game, so I don't know. If Santos plays, and is OK, this will be one hell of a game. If not, I think Hofstra will blow the doors off them, and crush thier playoff hopes.

Citadel opened at 14 ,Cornell at 3 I believe, and Hofstra 3. So not too much has changed.
 
Thanks bro, appreciate you taking the time to respond. Think I will just lay off these this week and see how they play out. If the games play out as I suspect, then I will feel pretty good even though I won't make any money on em, as I just want to get a better feel for these so I can decide whether or not 5dimes will be in the rotation or not next year (considering replacing em with BM).

Thanks again!
 
Well dude, I would still keep them around. They are some gigantic pussies, when it comes to the 1-AA lines, but they are a little more versatile than BM. I originally joined 5Dimes, because of their tennis lines/options, but I seem to use them more often. I like th team totals on every game, as BM only offers select games. Also, I like how on some of the bigger games, you can sell/take less points, if you don't feel they are necessary, and reduce your overall juice, which is extremely important.

Then again. with you being more of an early line player, you really should have BM in your lineup already, shouldn't you?
 
Ok guys, WTF is going on with this Appy State/Ga Southern line? Up to 19? Are you kidding me? A 41-24 Mountaineer win looks very impressive, but doesn't cover.

Did someone die?
 
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