WEEK 7

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
bold are bests



FIU +2

MID TEN -2.5
Memphis + 3.5
Stanford +11
NC St. +3.5
LSU UNDER 63.5
Kentucky -2.5
Marsh -1
V.Tech +1
Miami +4
VANDY +31.5
USF UNDER 59
Navy -4.5
NEV +10
USC +2.5
UNDER USC 63
Wash -2
 
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bold are bests



FIU +2 / UTEP +1.5 dogs usually win low lines so I got out.

MID TEN -2.5
Memphis + 3.5
Stanford +11
NC St. +3.5
LSU UNDER 63.5
Kentucky -2.5
Marsh -1
V.Tech +1
Miami +4
VANDY +31.5
USF UNDER 59
Navy -4.5
NEV +10
USC +2.5
UNDER USC 63
Wash -2
 
Talk to me about those unders
LSU/AUB :

LSU (10 in a row) is crushing overs but it stops here.

LSU last 3 totals combined were :

Vs. Ark total 55, combined output = 65 over by 10

Vs. Miss total 67, combined output = 104 over by 37

Vs. Miz total 63, combined output =88 over by 25

they have eclipsed their total the last 3 games by 72 points.

Auburn doesn't score much to keep pace at such a high total.

LSU has Army on deck this streak is falling this week or next.

Both Auburn and Army are going to have a struggle getting those overs.

Its the same for :

NOTD/ USC

USF/FL ATL FL ATL doesnt score a bunch against FBS teams. SFL has over exceeded the total 3 times in a row.

These are all regression plays. The total I am least confident in is Notre Dame/ USC but USC hasnt played one good team or defense. I see this game much more difficult for USC. They even struggled against CU in the 2nd Half. Maybe they shut it down but still. I just dont see a 40 point game by either team. Furthermore if the first half is over I will back the under 2nd H. Its a case of both halves not going over. The same is for USC they have UTAH on deck with travel back from the midwest. Their longest trip of the year. I am setting things up and feel like this is a good spot.
 
LSU/AUB :

LSU (10 in a row) is crushing overs but it stops here.

LSU last 3 totals combined were :

Vs. Ark total 55, combined output = 65 over by 10

Vs. Miss total 67, combined output = 104 over by 37

Vs. Miz total 63, combined output =88 over by 25

they have eclipsed their total the last 3 games by 72 points.

Auburn doesn't score much to keep pace at such a high total.

LSU has Army on deck this streak is falling this week or next.

Both Auburn and Army are going to have a struggle getting those overs.

Its the same for :

NOTD/ USC

USF/FL ATL FL ATL doesnt score a bunch against FBS teams. SFL has over exceeded the total 3 times in a row.

These are all regression plays. The total I am least confident in is Notre Dame/ USC but USC hasnt played one good team or defense. I see this game much more difficult for USC. They even struggled against CU in the 2nd Half. Maybe they shut it down but still. I just dont see a 40 point game by either team. Furthermore if the first half is over I will back the under 2nd H. Its a case of both halves not going over. The same is for USC they have UTAH on deck with travel back from the midwest. Their longest trip of the year. I am setting things up and feel like this is a good spot.
I appreciate the timely response.
 
unders on the weekday games, excluding Thursday

LT/MTSU 54.5
CC/APP 61
LIB/JST 59

UTEP/FI 44
SHS/NMS 42.5


TLN/MEM 56
FRZ/UTST 57
STAN/CU 59
 
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LT/MTSU 54.5 WIN
CC/APP 61 WIN
LIB/JST 59 WIN
CCAR +5 WIN


bold are bests




UTEP +2.5 WIN

MID TEN -2.5 WIN
Memphis + 3.5
Stanford +11
NC St. +3.5
LSU UNDER 63.5
Kentucky -2.5
Marsh -1
V.Tech +1
Miami +4
VANDY +31.5
USF UNDER 59
Navy -4.5
NEV +10
USC +2.5
UNDER USC 63
Wash -2



combined best bets =17-9-1
ALL PLAYS=33-19-2
 
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okay bonus write ups for 2 Friday night light games

Memphis +4.5 at home

Why?
Tulane is 52-145 SU Away in the database I use. Okay sure this TLNE team is improved more than previous teams. Here is the matchup problem for TLNE this week. They are 1-11 SU AT Memphis lifetime. The last 2 trips to Memphis they were +5.5 in both games (2019,2021)

Memphis: They are 52-10 SU in their last 62 home games. Just the fact that they are getting this many points against a team that they beat almost ever time at home makes this play good enough for me to take the Friday night dog.

Memphis has a nice balanced offense attack both rushing and passing and can keep the time of possession close. This is going to be a fight.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Stanford +11.

CU has holes in their D. Difficult stopping the run and the short crossers all season. Stnford doesnt have the elite athletes and QB CU does but If Colorado State can get a lead so Can Stanford. I know CU should be able to dominate on offense but if they cant stop Stanford rushing game this is a problem. CU has very little power at linebacker and Shilo Sanders leads the team in tackles. Cu has specil teams problem and makes bone headed plays on D and spec. teams. This team is not yet a team to be trusted as a favorite and with 2 dog games ahead after the bye they are exposed in the data site I use.

They were only projected to win 4 games on the team line and I believe they give a win away here. The bye is a time to sort out some of their issues and I think they will have a problem this week.

All teams that are favorites >-15 that have 2 dog games ahead are 200-293 ATS (40%) ATS and that included 9-23 ATS this season.

If the game takes place before week 8 the WP drops to 36% Big line from them to cover even if Stanford is on a short week. Stanford does what CU has a problem with and they can stay close and cover.
 
tonight Houston Bold best bet

Houston +3 this is for my record here but My bankroll and bets are more important.


I have Houston+3 -108, +2.5 +105, and Houston -3 +174/
 
okay bonus write ups for 2 Friday night light games

Memphis +4.5 at home

Why?
Tulane is 52-145 SU Away in the database I use. Okay sure this TLNE team is improved more than previous teams. Here is the matchup problem for TLNE this week. They are 1-11 SU AT Memphis lifetime. The last 2 trips to Memphis they were +5.5 in both games (2019,2021)

Memphis: They are 52-10 SU in their last 62 home games. Just the fact that they are getting this many points against a team that they beat almost ever time at home makes this play good enough for me to take the Friday night dog.

Memphis has a nice balanced offense attack both rushing and passing and can keep the time of possession close. This is going to be a fight.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Stanford +11.

CU has holes in their D. Difficult stopping the run and the short crossers all season. Stnford doesnt have the elite athletes and QB CU does but If Colorado State can get a lead so Can Stanford. I know CU should be able to dominate on offense but if they cant stop Stanford rushing game this is a problem. CU has very little power at linebacker and Shilo Sanders leads the team in tackles. Cu has specil teams problem and makes bone headed plays on D and spec. teams. This team is not yet a team to be trusted as a favorite and with 2 dog games ahead after the bye they are exposed in the data site I use.

They were only projected to win 4 games on the team line and I believe they give a win away here. The bye is a time to sort out some of their issues and I think they will have a problem this week.

All teams that are favorites >-15 that have 2 dog games ahead are 200-293 ATS (40%) ATS and that included 9-23 ATS this season.

If the game takes place before week 8 the WP drops to 36% Big line from them to cover even if Stanford is on a short week. Stanford does what CU has a problem with and they can stay close and cover.
Good stuff man, appreciate the thoughts.
 
bold are bests
combined best bets =18-9-1
ALL PLAYS=34-19-2

FYI 7-0 THIS WEEK


LT/MTSU 54.5 WIN
CC/APP 61 WIN
LIB/JST 59 WIN
CCAR +5 WIN
UTEP +2.5 WIN
MID TEN -2.5 WIN
HOU +3 WIN
Memphis + 3.5
Stanford +11
NC St. +3.5
LSU UNDER 63.5
Kentucky -2.5
Marsh -1
V.Tech +1
Miami +4
VANDY +31.5
USF UNDER 59
Navy -4.5
NEV +10
USC +2.5
UNDER USC 63
Wash -2 ORE +3.5 middle


Adding:
Kent St. +8.5
SYR +18.5
Geo So +5.5
Temple +6
MCH St + 5

Ball St +17.5
Ok St +3
Mass +42
FAU +2.5
Iowa +9.5
WYO+11.5
UL Monroe +17
K St. +1.5
 
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Stanford is 5-20ATS last 25 games. Here is the key for them. What they do on offense is what CU doesnt do on Defense. Short crossers and running game has been a problem for CU all season. The kicker this week is Travis Hunter is back. He always makes an impact so He could destroy my bet and my words.

If Stanford plays ell and executes on offense they can easily stay close and have a chance. Stanford poor D is going to be a problem for them though. To be honest though CU offense is so good and now with Hunter back on both side it really hasnt matter much for CU
 
best bets =26-21-1
ALL PLAYS=48-37-2





LT/MTSU 54.5 WIN
CC/APP 61 WIN
LIB/JST 59 WIN
CCAR +5 WIN
UTEP +2.5 WIN
MID TEN -2.5 WIN
HOU +3 WIN
TLN/MEM 56 WIN
FRZ/UTST 57 LOSS
STAN/CU 59 LOSS
Memphis + 3.5 LOSS
Stanford +11 WIN


BGU+4 WIN
NC St. +3.5 Loss
LSU UNDER 63.5 loss
Kentucky -2.5 loss
Marsh -1 loss
V.Tech +1 WIN
Miami +4 loss
VANDY +31.5 WIN
USF UNDER 59 Loss
Navy -4.5 WIN
NEV +10 Loss
USC +2.5 loss
UNDER USC 63 loss


Adding:
Kent St. +8.5 Loss
SYR +18.5 Loss
Geo So +5.5 Loss
Temple +6 Loss
MCH St + 5 WIN

Ball St +17.5 WIN
Ok St +3 WIN
Mass +42 Loss
FAU +2.5 WIN
Iowa +9.5 WiN
WYO+11.5 win
UL Monroe +17 win
K St. +1.5 win
CAL+11 Loss

Wash -2 ORE +3.5 MIDDLE WINNER!

BETS 10-12
All 21-18
 
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