Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Buckeye defense looks too tough and Illini D too porous.
Agree with Oregon, Indy fundamentially sound but lacking the athletes Ducks have. Ducks will have to shoot themselves in the web feet not to cover.
UCLA at MSU, I took the over. Yes UCLA looks good now but they're East of the Mississippi and that gives me pause.
Am an Old Stick in the Mud when it comes to Terps. It's mid-October, fade'em.
How about Michigan at USC? Michigan D needs to take the next step like they did late last year. No easy drives like they gave Wisc on 1st possession last week.

Fantastic writeups!!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Oklahoma -+ whatever v Texas: The line is currently Oklahoma -1, ultimately, I'd be fine with whatever it is. If Mateer plays, which I think this is what the current line is assuming, fine. If he doesn't, and the line drops to likely OU +3 or more, then I'd play that too. I have a little bit of fear that Mateer plays and then he doesn't really have the ability to throw the ball. The main reason for this play is that I don't see how Texas scores in this game. I've mentioned it in a couple of recaps, but if you watch Arch Manning, you know that he can't really play. He can't diagnose defenses pre snap, he certainly can't adjust post snap and he can't throw the ball accurately. This has been obvious all year but was laid bare in the Florida game. He had a receiver wide open on a double move, but he got such happy feet that he couldn't deliver the ball in a spot for a completion, much less a TD. He also managed to get their best offensive player Livingstone injured with such a horrendous throw that Livingstone had to make a circus catch when wide wide WIDE open, leaving him completely vulnerable to a low tackle when he was prone. Any kind od decent throw and he catches the ball in stride and scores untouched. He also is running with no instincts and certainly no grit, getting the bare minimum on every run, unless it's against a grammar school equivalent at SJSU. Florida's defense was good, but statistically no match for Oklahoma, and the Sooners are likely salivating like Pavlov's dogs to play him, I'm sure. Any tape of Arch elicits the same type of confidence William Wallace had in Braveheart at the thought of facing King Longshanks effeminate son. Texas has no shot of running it on the Sooners #2 ranked run defense and the #1 ranked defense overall. Oklahoma has the same issue, but this vaunted Texas defense just gave up 457 yards and 7.0 yards per play to the previously anemic Florida offense. Even if it's Michael Hawkins, at least he has some playmakers on the perimeter in Isaac TesLaa and Deion Burks to provide some potential explosiveness, and Jaydn Ott is due to produce some numbers that his time at Cal tells us he is capable of producing. Ultimately, I think OU will score enough to win because I'm skeptical that Arch can get anything going against this OU defense.
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I agree with the Texas take. But OU is also much more an Unranked 6-7 win team than they are the 4th team in the nation.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. Arkansas +10.5 @Tennessee (BOL): Line value has shrunk here, but I was hoping for anything 10 or more, so it still qualifies. Sam Pittman was shown the door, so out the door goes one of the best road dog coverers of the past decade or so. Happy trails Sam!! Now we see a bit of a reset, well a lot of a reset as Petrino came in and cleaned house. He got rid of the DC Travis Williams who he reportedly almost got in a fight with at practice several times as well as most of the defensive staff. The result is a simplified approach, which can't possibly get any worse. Offensively, there really hasn't been any problem as the Hogs, even after a terrible performance two weeks ago against ND are still leading the country in rushing per attempts and are 2nd in yards per play overall. Tennessee's defense is above average, but has holes in it, especially against the pass and on 3rd down. Both of these offenses have major advantages against the respective defenses, so the fundamental handicap looks pretty even with a slight edge to Tennessee. Add in the dead cat bounce that a coaching change during a two week prep can provide and I think Arkansas makes a lot of sense as a dog here.
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Some old man at the bank yesterday was telling the teller he’s 73% this year. The teller didn’t even know what he was talking about. But I did. I asked him who his favorite plays of the weekend were and he said Washington, Arkansas, and South Carolina.

I wish I asked for his number. He really liked talking football for a few minutes with me. He bets at the brick and mortar casino about 25 minutes away. Maybe I’ll see him again. He said all he bets and caps is college football. And he dabbles only in “American League” baseball in the summer months. Lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
Illinois/Ohio State thoughts. 14.5 is about right. Gun to head I'd lay it because the Illinois OL looked pedestrian again in the run game against a mediocre at best Purdue run defense. They also again proved that they can't cover and their corners are still banged up. Altmyer is dangerous but he's likely to be under a ton of pressure. Ohio State has the right mindset too. That defense is on another level. the most they've given up is 9? The line seems about right but I would lean with laying the points. If the Illini get to 17 that will be a hell of an accomplishment(for anyone really...Washington only got 6 at home). I would have a hard time seeing them keep Ohio State under 31 with how their defense has been playing.
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Appreciate it!
 
16. @USC -2.5 v Michigan(BR): There's a lot going on here. First of all, for all of the problems USC has had since they came in the Big Ten, they have been on the road. At home, they've mostly performed as you would expect or better. Ultimately, I think USC might be the best offense in the country. They are #1 in yards per play and the WR duo, especially Makai Lemon are almost impossible to stop. A lot of people leaped off the USC bandwagon after the Illinois game and it's true that their defense was dominated in that game, but I mentioned earlier that I thought USC's bout with food poisoning was real. They came into that game ranked second in the country in sacks and couldn't get any pressure on Altmyer. They also got ran over in the run game against a line that has not done that against anyone else on their schedule. I'm starting to think the food poisoning angle is less of an excuse and more of a reason for the performance. They've been told they are a weak ass bunch for 2 weeks, and now they are healthy. They aren't great, but I think you'll get the most motivated performance possible from that defense and green dot Khamari Ramsey will be back as well. Offensively, they will be in their element at home. Michigan is good, but I don't know that they have a dynamic enough offense to trade scores and I think they'll be surprised at how much resistance they get from that Trojan front. I like the Trojans here in a desperate spot at home.

One of the few good calls of the week. It went very much according to the above.
 
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Inspekdah said:
Some old man at the bank yesterday was telling the teller he’s 73% this year. The teller didn’t even know what he was talking about. But I did. I asked him who his favorite plays of the weekend were and he said Washington, Arkansas, and South Carolina.

I wish I asked for his number. He really liked talking football for a few minutes with me. He bets at the brick and mortar casino about 25 minutes away. Maybe I’ll see him again. He said all he bets and caps is college football. And he dabbles only in “American League” baseball in the summer months. Lol
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Man I love this. In a bit you'll see that I'm on all three of those. I hope he knows his shit.
 
17. @Auburn +4.5(-117) v Georgia (BOL): I've made it clear how I feel that Georgia is not an elite squad, but merely profiles as a good SEC team. Auburn has played the #7 schedule in the country and it's been all on the road. They finally get a *** game at home, and they will be bringing everything they have in this one..it's a must win if they have designs on this season being anything special. It all comes down to Jackson Arnold. He HAS to be better than he's shown because he's got the kind of weapons that Georgia has proven they cannot cover. Also, this Auburn defense has been elite on the ground, so I don't think there's any chance Georgia will have success running the ball. Auburn is also off a bye, and Georgia has played a couple of tough SEC games in a row at home, and now they are hitting the road where they have not had success recently, especially as a favorite. They are 1-7 as a road favorite since 2023, and 3-13 as a favorite in any case since the start of last year. Auburn's defense has struggled against the pass, but they've played some hellacious pass offenses/receiving corps so far this year. They also pressure the QB very well and are 10th on 3rd downs. There's enough to like about the spot and ability for Auburn to continue to play against Georgia in a role they've completely stunk at for going on 3 seasons.

Another joke. Auburn likely to get another call from the SEC office on the Arnold fumble at the end of the first half. Auburn was dominating, with a 215 to 20 yard edge about to go up 17-0 when Arnold fumbled at the 1 when it looked like he had crossed the plane. Georgia gets the ball and it ends up 10-3 at half instead. Then at 13-10, and under 2 minutes Stockton runs for a first down, but keeps going and much to his team's detriment, uses a superhuman/world peace depends on it effort to sneak over the pylon. If you had Georgia, you're living right.
 
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18. South Carolina +9 @LSU(BR): Some risk here fading LSU at Tiger Stadium at night, but I like the Gamecocks here. South Carolina's defense is nowhere near as good as it was last year, but this LSU offense has had major problems, and Brian Kelly has been hearing enough about it that it's had an impact on the overall vibes for LSU, as if Kelly needed any help creating negative vibes. The LSU offense isn't doing anything well. They'll get Caden Durham back, but there isn't a lot of evidence that LSU can run it, and Nussmeier has not clicked with his new receivers very well. Offensively, South Carolina can't run it either, but Norris has been really good through the air, and their major Achilles heel(sacks allowed) isn't something that LSU has been good at, so he's likely to be pretty comfortable in the pocket. The Gamecocks have also covered 7 straight on the road, so if anyone will have a bit of a comfort level in this environment, it'll be them. They also had the LSU game stolen from them by some terrible calls during the game in Columbia last year, so there's a revenge angle and a confidence level for them too.

Sellers was horrific. He could not sustain a drive the entire night, he of the #8 yards per attempt offense. Threw a bad pick, got stopped on downs twice in crucial spots. Just a disaster, a 5% performance, perhaps the worst of his career. And we lost by 1 point.
 
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19. @Nevada +7 v San Diego State(BOL): San Diego State has started out pretty well, but I think this is going to be a close game between two pretty evenly matched teams. In their two previous road games, the Aztecs were pretty much run off the field up in Pullman by a Washington State team that is getting 32 points in their game today and played the taffy pull of the year against NIU, barely winning 6-3 up in DeKalb. Now they travel up to Reno to play the Wolf Pack who are coming off yet another game in which the played well but lost. They also rid themselves of the rotten stench of Chuba Purdy playing QB. Last week they fell behind Fresno 20-3 in the first half mostly because Purdy went 0-4 with 2 picks. Once the made the change to backup Freshman Carter Jones, they got going and almost pulled off the comeback, falling 20-17 in one of the few games I actually got right last week. I'm not saying Jones is a world beater, but at least he isn't the albatross around the Wolf Pack's neck that this moron Purdy was. Nevada has played good defense this year, can run the ball and I think they are well coached by Jeff Choate. I think SDSU is a different team on the road and I am not sold that Jaden Denegal is a high level QB. I'll take the points with the home dog in a game that will probably come down to the wire, at worst.

Great way to cap the night. This game was over 5 minutes in. Every possible thing that could go wrong for Nevada did, and they reverted to the fetal position hoping their Mommy would come and save them.
 
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That's gonna do it for this week. Some close ones that I considered writing up:

BYU: I don't trust Arizona and I do trust the Cougs in close games. The BYU defense should be able to handle Fifita pretty well but the AZ defense is solid also and they've come up with some nice performances at home. Money line was too rich and I didn't want to lay more than a couple points on that one.

New Mexico: I had the game capped pretty even but I just didn't have the balls to do it. I could see UNM playing well and then Boise getting a front door TD to win by 21 or something.

Arizona State: I know Leavitt is out but 10 points with that running game, defense and Dillingham scheming stuff up with his back against the wall has me intrigued at a double digit spread. Jeff Sims history with turnovers makes them almost unbettable though, even at that number. If it got any higher I would probably recommend it and I do have a few bucks on the Sun Devils +10.

Texas State: People have forgotten about them after they blew their game with Arky State, but they are back home and that offense has been very explosive. Troy hs been plucky in a dog role though so I laid off.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. It was a lot of fun this week. Good luck!
 
One of the tough things about betting group of 5 games is that you have no idea about potential injuries. As much as I attempt to get as much information as I can, I had no idea that Drew Pyne wasn't going to play for BG. Had I known that, I would have never played it. Also, I'm sure the line didn't take that into consideration.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Now that’s the kind of thing that really pisses me off. That was a win, turns into a loss. This moron goes for 2 when there was no strategic reason to do so. Naturally there’s no prayer they make it.
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The book now says to go for when down 14 and score to be down 8. But I've never seen it when down 21 and score to 15. Makes no sense at all.
 
lvmike32 said:
The book now says to go for when down 14 and score to be down 8. But I've never seen it when down 21 and score to 15. Makes no sense at all.
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Agree, makes zero sense to do it down 3 TDs. If you manage to get that third score in a short amount of time, the defence will be so winded and back on its heels a 2pt convert should be a cake walk.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Oregon -7(-115) v Indiana (BOL): This TD spread is about right, but I would require more than 7 for Indiana, and if I could get 7 or less, I just can't see any Big Ten team other than Ohio State staying within a TD of the Ducks in Autzen. As I mentioned during the ODU writeup, Indiana gave up some explosive runs to ODU in their game, and Oregon can throw explosive runs at you with any number of backs. I'm also sure that Dan Lanning is getting his team up to play this game because he's hearing how Penn State's uninspired performance at UCLA somehow de-legitimized their win in Happy Valley. Oregon deserves credit for that pretty thorough beating of Penn State and they got the benefit of the off week just like Indiana did. We all know Indiana hasn't proven it can beat a top top level team, but I don't hold that against them here because I think they are better than they were last year. My issue here is the undeniably tough travel as well as the motivational "shortcoming" this trip represents for IU. In retrospect, their motivational edge at home against Illinois was probably the strongest one anyone had this year. I don't think that's the case this year. Indiana has ZERO chance of losing any of it's remaining games other than this one and Penn State. They know they can beat Penn State after seeing them lately, so the Oregon game becomes less essential and more of a "nice to have". They know in the back of their mind that even if they lose this one to the Ducks in Eugene, even by a decent amount, they are sill getting into the playoff with one loss, which at this point looks highly likely. Indiana has great talent on both sides of the ball, but clearly Oregon has more, and the Ducks will be a motivated bunch in front of a crowd that affects the outcomes of games.
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Yeah, I played this, too. Whoops.
 
Good thing we had over 1,000 views on this nonsense. One of the more aggravating college football days I can remember. The absolute incompetence of some of these teams I bet on....

Will get to recaps soon. I'm giving up on this pathetic excuse for a team in Reno and calling it early. 6-12-1. I've had worse winning percentages in a week but probably not a worse day on negative units. I think that takes the season long total to 44-51. Holy shit what a disaster. Recapping should be fun. On to the next I guess.
 
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