Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Worst week of the year last week (4-9-1) brought the season total under a coin flip (38-39-4). The Vandy game was a bad beat, with the dreaded "they have to score on a long run on this play to beat me" scenario coming in. That's happened to me quite a few times in the past. I wonder what it must feel like to win one of the those?

One thing I'm finding strange. When did forcing turnovers become a 100% luck proposition? Is this a new thing? I think it's a mechanism the gambling public is using to justify losing bets. Like when team gets a pick 6, that was just a completely lucky break and not a great play by someone that was looking for the opportunity to jump a route and might have been coached to be ready for it when a blitz was coming from the other side? This is anecdotal, but I pay attention to a lot of gambling "talking heads" and they were all on Purdue last week. The narrative of that game was that Purdue coughed up too many turnovers and that was the difference in that game. Was it a 5-0 turnover edge? No. It was a 2-0 turnover edge for Illinois. We're really saying that a 2-0 turnover edge is some kind of remarkable occurrence? Altmyer averaged 17 yards per attempt! That might have had a little more to do with Purdue not covering the game. Having said that, it's obviously not limited to Illinois. I heard a guy on VSIN saying he wasn't impressed with Alabama because they forced two red zone turnovers. Had those not happened, Vandy might have won. Well, guess what? They hapened! And they happened because Jefferson punched that ball out and Sabb stepped in and stole the ball from Stowers. Alabama made those plays. This suggestion that they benefitted by luck is nonsense.

Illinois/Ohio State thoughts. 14.5 is about right. Gun to head I'd lay it because the Illinois OL looked pedestrian again in the run game against a mediocre at best Purdue run defense. They also again proved that they can't cover and their corners are still banged up. Altmyer is dangerous but he's likely to be under a ton of pressure. Ohio State has the right mindset...I think they'll take care of business.

Washington -10.5 WIN
Florida State -10 LOSS
UCLA +8.5 WIN
Missouri +3 PUSH
Bowling Green +11 WIN
Cincinnati -10.5 LOSS
Old Dominion -14.5 LOSS
Maryland +7 WIN
Oklahoma whatever the line was LOSS---at whatever bet you made
Oregon -7 LOSS
Georgia State +3 LOSS
Virginia Tech +14.5 LOSS
Arkansas +10.5 WIN
Florida +7.5 LOSS
Wisconsin +3 LOSS
USC -2.5 WIN
Auburn +4.5 LOSS
South Carolina +9 LOSS
Nevada +7 LOSS

6-12-1

On to the week. One for Friday.

1. @Washington -10.5 v Rutgers (BOL): There's a lot of things going against Rutgers here. First it's the cross country travel and the fact that this game will start at almost 11 on the Knights body clocks. Second, Washington completely outplayed Rutgers last year in Piscataway and still managed to lose the game on a late field goal. Rutgers win in that one was perhaps the most fraudulent outcome of a game all year. Washington will be waiting for them in this one, and they enjoy some major edges in the fundamental handicap. Rutgers strength on offense is the pass game, but the Huskies are doing well against the pass and they are likely to welcome back a couple of big pieces in the secondary back from injury. On offense, Washington will have a severe advantage in both phases, the run and the pass, as well as on 3rd down. Washington QB Williams has been pummeled a bit by opposing pass rushes, but he won't have to worry much about the Rutgers pass rush because they are 87th in sack rate. Husky Stadium is a menace to play at, and I think Rutgers will feel it. Washington's offense should be able to move the ball whether they're throwing or running, and I'm not sure the Rutgers offense will see a ton of success.

Rutgers had no chance of stopping Washington with that defense. Demond Williams averaged 15 yards per pass attempt and 10.5 yards per carry. Washington had their own troubles, giving up 490 yards themselves. How would you like to get 490 yards of offense and end up with 19 points? Ask Greg Schiano. Stopped on downs several times, missed FGs. It was similar to what happened to Washington last year except the Knights gave up 579 yards and the Huskies gave up 299 last year.
 
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2. @Florida State -10(-112) v Pitt (BOL): Despite the fact that Pitt beat me last week in spectacular fashion, I'm fading them again this week. The Panthers absolutely blew the doors off of BC, and frankly, I'm still surprised at how bad the Eagles looked in that game. Pitt made the move off of Eli Holstein and went with TRUE Freshman Mason Heintschel, who did not disappoint. He threw for 359 yards and 4 TDs and basically all he had to do was pitch it around the yard to a bunch of wide open guys that BC could not cover. However, they are walking into a tough spot here. Florida State, coming off back to back losses is desperate, and they are certainly not lacking in confidence based on what they've already accomplished this year. Pitt is looking at a major step up in competition this week while the Noles, despite Pitt's prowess on D, will have a bit of class relief after dealing with that Miami defense. We'll have a true freshman making his first road start in a wholly hostile environment and Pitt is 1-8 as a road dog since 2022. Pitt also sports the #114 schedule per Sagarin while FSU has played his #15 schedule. Big step up for Pitt here, and their previous voyage on the road was a quick one to Morgantown against a totally banged up and slow West Virginia team who beat them outright. They're facing a team light years better than the Mountaineers here.

I was banking on FSU having their way with the true freshman 3 star kid in his first road start, but other than a little stretch at the end of the 1st half, he was very good. Noles are now 3-3 and have lost 8 straight ACC games. 476 yards for Pitt. 321 passing yards and over 10 yards per attempt for Heintschel. He just worked the Noles.
 
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3. UCLA +8.5 @Michigan State (BR): Not a great spot for UCLA here coming off that monumental win against Penn State, but I like the head space the Bruins are in right now. If you remember, last year they rebounded from a horrid start and played very competitive games starting about this time , especially on the road and that included a great performance at noon at Rutgers when they were getting somewhere around this number of points. They went on to beat Nebraska in Lincoln and Iowa at home in successive weeks. Nico may have unlocked something with his running prowess, which had not been previously seen. The Bruins are also matching up with a perfect opponent in Michigan State, who although they've looked ok at times this year, they have not really gained any traction under Jonathan Smith. They managed only 240 yards last week at Nebraska, and Aidan Chiles had yet another terrible statistical game. Now they return home where Smith has not covered a game as a home favorite since he's been at MSU(0-7 ATS as a HF). Fundamentally, I have this as a pretty even game and I like the UCLA momentum, so I'll take the 8.5 that I found at bet Rivers.

UCLA was by far the better team. Michigan State looks lost. UCLA looked ugly, but they just kept converting. Good momentum for UCLA. Now MSU gets Indiana in Bloomington. Yikes. Hoosiers can name the score in that one. I'm not sure what's going on with Jonathan Smith there in East Lansing. I really liked that hire, but they are just directionless right now. No idea what their identity is. It might be that he tied himself to the wrong QB, but they just aren't good in any area.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Worst week of the year last week (4-9-1) brought the season total under a coin flip (38-39-4). The Vandy game was a bad beat, with the dreaded "they have to score on a long run on this play to beat me" scenario coming in. That's happened to me quite a few times in the past. I wonder what it must feel like to win one of the those?

One thing I'm finding strange. When did forcing turnovers become a 100% luck proposition? Is this a new thing? I think it's a mechanism the gambling public is using to justify losing bets. Like when team gets a pick 6, that was just a completely lucky break and not a great play by someone that was looking for the opportunity to jump a route and might have been coached to be ready for it when a blitz was coming from the other side? This is anecdotal, but I pay attention to a lot of gambling "talking heads" and they were all on Purdue last week. The narrative of that game was that Purdue coughed up too many turnovers and that was the difference in that game. Was it a 5-0 turnover edge? No. It was a 2-0 turnover edge for Illinois. We're really saying that a 2-0 turnover edge is some kind of remarkable occurrence? Altmyer averaged 17 yards per attempt! That might have had a little more to do with Purdue not covering the game. Having said that, it's obviously not limited to Illinois. I heard a guy on VSIN saying he wasn't impressed with Alabama because they forced two red zone turnovers. Had those not happened, Vandy might have won. Well, guess what? They hapened! And they happened because Jefferson punched that ball out and Sabb stepped in and stole the ball from Stowers. Alabama made those plays. This suggestion that they benefitted by luck is nonsense.

Illinois/Ohio State thoughts. 14.5 is about right. Gun to head I'd lay it because the Illinois OL looked pedestrian again in the run game against a mediocre at best Purdue run defense. They also again proved that they can't cover and their corners are still banged up. Altmyer is dangerous but he's likely to be under a ton of pressure. Ohio State has the right mindset...I think they'll take care of business.

On to the week. One for Friday.

1. @Washington -10.5 v Rutgers (BOL): There's a lot of things going against Rutgers here. First it's the cross country travel and the fact that this game will start at almost 11 on the Knights body clocks. Second, Washington completely outplayed Rutgers last year in Piscataway and still managed to lose the game on a late field goal. Rutgers win in that one was perhaps the most fraudulent outcome of a game all year. Washington will be waiting for them in this one, and they enjoy some major edges in the fundamental handicap. Rutgers strength on offense is the pass game, but the Huskies are doing well against the pass and they are likely to welcome back a couple of big pieces in the secondary back from injury. On offense, Washington will have a severe advantage in both phases, the run and the pass, as well as on 3rd down. Washington QB Williams has been pummeled a bit by opposing pass rushes, but he won't have to worry much about the Rutgers pass rush because they are 87th in sack rate. Husky Stadium is a menace to play at, and I think Rutgers will feel it. Washington's offense should be able to move the ball whether they're throwing or running, and I'm not sure the Rutgers offense will see a ton of success.
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I like Washington too. I know you aren’t a total player, but maybe a look there.

Vandy made me want to bash my balls with a hammer. I’d bet it again tomorrow and I just might with Missouri
 
Inspekdah said:
Your write ups help me actually remember those games. I jumped on Washington live in that Rutgers game. They had no business losing that one. They should be ready here and 11 isn’t too much to ask.
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That game might have had the lowest win expectancy for a winning team of the whole season last year.
 
Might have my highest amount of plays for the year this week. Not very many teams off this week, so a lot more games.
 
4. @Missouri +3 v Alabama (BOL): I've had my eye on this one admittedly since these schedules came out and even more so after Missouri's game with Kansas earlier this year. When I targeted this side, I assumed I'd be getting closer to 6 or 7, but I think 3 is going to be enough here. The more this line dropped, I tried to look for reasons to come back on Bama, and there are a couple reasons. First, Ty Simpson has been very good. Second, there is a pretty profound difference in the schedules these two teams have played. Having said that, even when adjusting for the schedule differences and being fully aware of Simpson's prowess, I'm still finding myself on Missouri. Frankly, the spot is great for Missouri. We saw what happened when Indiana had a much weaker schedule (at the time) than Illinois. Yes, Illinois was tested, but Indiana had been able to prepare for them with an eye on being 100% ready to pounce on that game. I think the same is true for Missouri. They haven't had to leave home yet and they've been preparing for probably 3 weeks for Bama while Bama has had to have their full attention( as well as hold nothing back for film purposes ) on Georgia and Vanderbilt in back to back weeks. And make no mistake, Bama was 100% focused on Vandy and put everything into winning that game. Not the case for Mizzou, as I'm sure Drinkwitz has plenty up his sleeve in this one, and this game means everything for Mizzou as it relates to their long term outlook and chances for the playoff. As for the fundamental side of things, I'm trying to figure out how Alabama is going to stop Missouri's offense and their run game in particular. You can make a case that Vandy really kind of abandoned the run when they didn't need to. They only attempted 5 non-Pavia runs and they hit a big one for 65 yards on only the 2nd attempt. Prior to that Bama gave up almost 7 yards per carry to Georgia(who otherwise ranks 31st in ypc, good but not elite) and 240 yards rushing to Florida State, whose primary ballcarrier Gavin Sawchuck cant hold a candle to Ahmad Hardy, who is probably one of the top 2 or 3 RBs in the country. You can make a case that Hardy's backup, Jamal Roberts might be the second best RB Bama will have faced as he's averaging 7 yards a pop too. In addition to that, Mizzou QB Beau Pribula can obviously run it well, and he's been throwing the ball effectively too. Bama will certainly be able to move the ball on this Mizzou defense, especially the secondary, but the Tigers have been very good on 3rd down against some good offenses(Kansas, South Carolina) and they can get after the passer. We also cannot forget about Alabama's tendency to look terrible in these road favorite scenarios. The Florida State beatdown was only a few weeks ago and this Missouri team is certainly significantly better than the Oklahoma Tennessee and Vandy teams that knocked off the Tide under DeBoer last year. Missouri is primed foe this one. I think they get it done at home.

This was a pretty even game, Pribula just wasn't good enough in the clutch to deliver a victory. Yards were dead even. Push was appropriate.
 
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5. @Bowling Green +11(-112) v Toledo(BOL): Until further notice, Toledo has to be faded in this role as a road dog. Since 2022 Toledo is 3-12 as a road favorite, and 0-5 since the start of last year. This has been a recurring theme, and the inconsistency of QB Tucker Gleeson has not helped matters for Jason Candle and the Rockets. I actually would like BG in this one even without the bad history of Toledo in the role. On paper, Toledo looks like the clear right side, but that's before you factor in the differences between the schedules these two teams have played. BG has played the #40 schedule according to Sagarin while Toledo has played #132, and that would be a even worse when you consider that they played Akron with one of the worst backup QBs in the country playing the entire game. BG's game is ball control and grinding games out under Eddie George and they've been successful running the ball against Louisville and Ohio their last 2 times out, averaging 6.6 and 5 yards a pop respectively. The profile for both of these teams suggests a close game, so I'll take the points here with the Eagles.

Jason Candle is a maestro at this. Up by 21(I think ) and then 20 minutes later he's tied and another 10 minutes later he's down 7. Nice outright win for the Eagles. The Rockets are very consistent in their puking up of road games they're favored in
 
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6. @Cincinnati -10.5(-112) v UCF (BOL): Cincy burned me last week because I didn't trust Scott Satterfield to win a tough one in that spot, and he almost bailed me out despite the Bearcats dominating Iowa State for the entire first half. There's risk here too, but it appears Cam Fancher will be starting and will be the only healthy QB for the Knights, It's not like Tayven Jackson or Jacurri Brown are all that good, but they're certainly a lot better than Fancher, who has failed at every school that's had the misfortune of their football coach foolishly giving him playing time. He's averaged 4.8 yards per attempt for UCF this year, and prior to that he was terrible against much worse competition at FAU and Marshall. The main weakness for Cincy is their pass defense, which is good for them because Fancher's noodle arm and clueless diagnosis of anything approaching disguise will keep them from being had in the passing game. Cincy's rush offense should run all over UCF and I expect Tawee Walker to have little issue getting in the end zone multiple times in this one. UCF has been ok against the pass, but this Cincy pass attack away from the friendly confines of the Bounce House will be very different from what they've seen before. I have to rely on Satterfield to avoid botching a lead, but I can't see UCF being competitive with Fancher in there.

I bolded the last part. That's pretty much what happened in this one. They jumped out 17-0 and just stopped scoring save one FG the rest of the way. It looked like it wouldn't matter because Cam Fancher was in there. Cincy fumbled on the 1 yard line which turned a TD into a FG. Then when down 20-3, UCF embarks on the backdoor cover drive from their own 10. During the drive they get a pass interference call on 3rd and 14 and then another on 4th and 15. Fancher eventually staggers into the end zone with two minutes left. Then UCF goes for 2, and naturally gets it. Cincy recovers the on side with UCF having all three timeouts, but they go backwards on the 2nd and third down plays and punt from the UCF 35. Game ends 20-11. UCF tallied over 200 yards after it was 20-3. You can't lay points of any substance with Satterfield. Until of course I play the dog against him and he puts the screws to me again.
 
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I don’t think protecting the ball is luck, think there is some truth to luck playing a part in turnovers to an extent, but I’ve never been big on saying I capped it correctly except those freaking 5 turnovers!! It probably the fact it can be damn near impossible to predict them so it easier to explain away as bad luck? Sometimes it easier to anticipate them than others. I dunno, Duke is a great example cause they had a few games early on where they invented ways to hand the ball over, but lately without a bunch of turnovers they have looked fantastic.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Missouri +3 v Alabama (BOL): I've had my eye on this one admittedly since these schedules came out and even more so after Missouri's game with Kansas earlier this year. When I targeted this side, I assumed I'd be getting closer to 6 or 7, but I think 3 is going to be enough here. The more this line dropped, I tried to look for reasons to come back on Bama, and there are a couple reasons. First, Ty Simpson has been very good. Second, there is a pretty profound difference in the schedules these two teams have played. Having said that, even when adjusting for the schedule differences and being fully aware of Simpson's prowess, I'm still finding myself on Missouri. Frankly, the spot is great for Missouri. We saw what happened when Indiana had a much weaker schedule (at the time) than Illinois. Yes, Illinois was tested, but Indiana had been able to prepare for them with an eye on being 100% ready to pounce on that game. I think the same is true for Missouri. They haven't had to leave home yet and they've been preparing for probably 3 weeks for Bama while Bama has had to have their full attention( as well as hold nothing back for film purposes ) on Georgia and Vanderbilt in back to back weeks. And make no mistake, Bama was 100% focused on Vandy and put everything into winning that game. Not the case for Mizzou, as I'm sure Drinkwitz has plenty up his sleeve in this one, and this game means everything for Mizzou as it relates to their long term outlook and chances for the playoff. As for the fundamental side of things, I'm trying to figure out how Alabama is going to stop Missouri's offense and their run game in particular. You can make a case that Vandy really kind of abandoned the run when they didn't need to. They only attempted 5 non-Pavia runs and they hit a big one for 65 yards on only the 2nd attempt. Prior to that Bama gave up almost 7 yards per carry to Georgia(who otherwise ranks 31st in ypc, good but not elite) and 240 yards rushing to Florida State, whose primary ballcarrier Gavin Sawchuck cant hold a candle to Ahmad Hardy, who is probably one of the top 2 or 3 RBs in the country. You can make a case that Hardy's backup, Jamal Roberts might be the second best RB Bama will have faced as he's averaging 7 yards a pop too. In addition to that, Mizzou QB Beau Pribula can obviously run it well, and he's been throwing the ball effectively too. Bama will certainly be able to move the ball on this Mizzou defense, especially the secondary, but the Tigers have been very good on 3rd down against some good offenses(Kansas, South Carolina) and they can get after the passer. We also cannot forget about Alabama's tendency to look terrible in these road favorite scenarios. The Florida State beatdown was only a few weeks ago and this Missouri team is certainly significantly better than the Oklahoma Tennessee and Vandy teams that knocked off the Tide under DeBoer last year. Missouri is primed foe this one. I think they get it done at home.
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im freaking terrible with bama games since Saban left. I also have an unhealthy bias against Mizzou coach so this game just screams to me leave it alone. I was pretty surprised to see it at 3, so much so bama tempted me but I really don’t think I have any kind of feel for how this go.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Worst week of the year last week (4-9-1) brought the season total under a coin flip (38-39-4). The Vandy game was a bad beat, with the dreaded "they have to score on a long run on this play to beat me" scenario coming in. That's happened to me quite a few times in the past. I wonder what it must feel like to win one of the those?

One thing I'm finding strange. When did forcing turnovers become a 100% luck proposition? Is this a new thing? I think it's a mechanism the gambling public is using to justify losing bets. Like when team gets a pick 6, that was just a completely lucky break and not a great play by someone that was looking for the opportunity to jump a route and might have been coached to be ready for it when a blitz was coming from the other side? This is anecdotal, but I pay attention to a lot of gambling "talking heads" and they were all on Purdue last week. The narrative of that game was that Purdue coughed up too many turnovers and that was the difference in that game. Was it a 5-0 turnover edge? No. It was a 2-0 turnover edge for Illinois. We're really saying that a 2-0 turnover edge is some kind of remarkable occurrence? Altmyer averaged 17 yards per attempt! That might have had a little more to do with Purdue not covering the game. Having said that, it's obviously not limited to Illinois. I heard a guy on VSIN saying he wasn't impressed with Alabama because they forced two red zone turnovers. Had those not happened, Vandy might have won. Well, guess what? They hapened! And they happened because Jefferson punched that ball out and Sabb stepped in and stole the ball from Stowers. Alabama made those plays. This suggestion that they benefitted by luck is nonsense.

Illinois/Ohio State thoughts. 14.5 is about right. Gun to head I'd lay it because the Illinois OL looked pedestrian again in the run game against a mediocre at best Purdue run defense. They also again proved that they can't cover and their corners are still banged up. Altmyer is dangerous but he's likely to be under a ton of pressure. Ohio State has the right mindset...I think they'll take care of business.

On to the week. One for Friday.

1. @Washington -10.5 v Rutgers (BOL): There's a lot of things going against Rutgers here. First it's the cross country travel and the fact that this game will start at almost 11 on the Knights body clocks. Second, Washington completely outplayed Rutgers last year in Piscataway and still managed to lose the game on a late field goal. Rutgers win in that one was perhaps the most fraudulent outcome of a game all year. Washington will be waiting for them in this one, and they enjoy some major edges in the fundamental handicap. Rutgers strength on offense is the pass game, but the Huskies are doing well against the pass and they are likely to welcome back a couple of big pieces in the secondary back from injury. On offense, Washington will have a severe advantage in both phases, the run and the pass, as well as on 3rd down. Washington QB Williams has been pummeled a bit by opposing pass rushes, but he won't have to worry much about the Rutgers pass rush because they are 87th in sack rate. Husky Stadium is a menace to play at, and I think Rutgers will feel it. Washington's offense should be able to move the ball whether they're throwing or running, and I'm not sure the Rutgers offense will see a ton of success.
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The ESPN box score says no turnovers for UW last year. How do you not score more than 18 on 521 yards?
 
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Inspekdah said:
Your write ups help me actually remember those games. I jumped on Washington live in that Rutgers game. They had no business losing that one. They should be ready here and 11 isn’t too much to ask.
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It’s been a rough stretch already, though, hasn’t it? The old rivalry game, then Ohio State, then a big comeback last week. But they should be motivated here. So fade them in Ann Arbor next week?
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think protecting the ball is luck, think there is some truth to luck playing a part in turnovers to an extent, but I’ve never been big on saying I capped it correctly except those freaking 5 turnovers!! It probably the fact it can be damn near impossible to predict them so it easier to explain away as bad luck? Sometimes it easier to anticipate them than others. I dunno, Duke is a great example cause they had a few games early on where they invented ways to hand the ball over, but lately without a bunch of turnovers they have looked fantastic.
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Once the ball leaves the player’s hands on a fumble there’s a lot of luck. And tipped passes that find a defensive player vs an offensive player or the ground - that’s luck, though tipping the ball in the first place is the result of good play by the pass rush. But sometimes you can scheme turnovers, and I knew Venables would do it early against Tua and Locksley. God, I miss that guy.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. @Cincinnati -10.5(-112) v UCF (BOL): Cincy burned me last week because I didn't trust Scott Satterfield to win a tough one in that spot, and he almost bailed me out despite the Bearcats dominating Iowa State for the entire first half. There's risk here too, but it appears Cam Fancher will be starting and will be the only healthy QB for the Knights, It's not like Tayven Jackson or Jacurri Brown are all that good, but they're certainly a lot better than Fancher, who has failed at every school that's had the misfortune of their football coach foolishly giving him playing time. He's averaged 4.8 yards per attempt for UCF this year, and prior to that he was terrible against much worse competition at FAU and Marshall. The main weakness for Cincy is their pass defense, which is good for them because Fancher's noodle arm and clueless diagnosis of anything approaching disguise will keep them from being had in the passing game. Cincy's rush offense should run all over UCF and I expect Tawee Walker to have little issue getting in the end zone multiple times in this one. UCF has been ok against the pass, but this Cincy pass attack away from the friendly confines of the Bounce House will be very different from what they've seen before. I have to rely on Satterfield to avoid botching a lead, but I can't see UCF being competitive with Fancher in there.
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UC burned me two weeks ago, and I’m a believer now. But I might be more interested in the 1H and team over.
 
M.W. said:
Once the ball leaves the player’s hands on a fumble there’s a lot of luck. And tipped passes that find a defensive player vs an offensive player or the ground - that’s luck, though tipping the ball in the first place is the result of good play by the pass rush. But sometimes you can scheme turnovers, and I knew Venables would do it early against Tua and Locksley. God, I miss that guy.
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Yea for sure, who recovers a fumble is totally luck, deflections to a extent but some defenders are coached better or have more talent getting hands up, some qbs better not getting balls deflected, what happens after ball deflected certainly luck. Def think some coaches defenses are better at creating them than others, and some qb’s teams are better at protecting ball. It never a easy thing to predict which just makes it easier to chalk it up to luck I think, there some truth to it but I’m also aware of the possibilities with certain offenses or defenses more than others.
 
7. Old Dominion -14.5 @Marshall (BR): Old Dominion has a legit shot at making the playoff if they can run the table, and they have no margin for error based on where they sit in the pecking order. So far this year, this team has been a wrecking crew against everyone they've played other than Indiana, who gave them their only loss. Having said that, they went into that house of horrors in Bloomington and lost only 27-14 and gashed the Hoosiers on the ground in the process, with Colton Joseph breaking two huge runs. Their ability to get big plays on the ground is nothing new. They're 4th in the country in yards per rush and had a multitude of big plays on the ground last year and the year before. Since 2023 they've broken 12 runs of more than 60 yards. Joseph is also torching people through the air, averaging over 10 yards per attempt. Marshall is rebuilding from nothing after Charles Huff left for Southern Miss. Tony Gibson is a good defensive mind but he doesn't have the horses yet, as the Herd has been giving up big yardage to everyone. They got outgained by 200 yards in their only FBS game at home by Missouri State, and even La La and Lunch Winfield put 54 points on them. The yardage numbers aren't any prettier, as they rank 120th in yards per play, 93rd in yards per rush and 126th in yards per pass despite playing schedule full of cupcakes(130th). Offensively, Carlos Del Rio Wilson has been good at QB after transferring from Syracuse, but he's only played defenses that aren't in the same stratosphere as ODU. The Monarchs have been very good on defense as well, including ranking 10th against the pass, so Wilson will have his work cut out for him. There's some concern because ODU has a huge game at JMU next week, but they can't afford any slip ups and need to blow the dregs out to have credibility for the playoff. ODU is miles better than Marshall at this point.


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2daBank said:
I don’t think protecting the ball is luck, think there is some truth to luck playing a part in turnovers to an extent, but I’ve never been big on saying I capped it correctly except those freaking 5 turnovers!! It probably the fact it can be damn near impossible to predict them so it easier to explain away as bad luck? Sometimes it easier to anticipate them than others. I dunno, Duke is a great example cause they had a few games early on where they invented ways to hand the ball over, but lately without a bunch of turnovers they have looked fantastic.
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True, but I don't begrudge the teams that forced the turnovers. That's my point. If guys punch the ball out or make great reads on picks, we shouldn't think less of them.
 
M.W. said:
The ESPN box score says no turnovers for UW last year. How do you not score more than 18 on 521 yards?
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Stopped on downs in the red zone several times and a couple (at least) missed field goals if I remember correctly.
 
8. @Maryland +7(-115) v Nebraska (BR): Both teams have played weak schedules, but both of their defenses have been very good thus far. Nebraska has been outstanding against the pass, but they've been gashed on the ground. Maryland has been solid everywhere on defense and has been able to pressure the QB, so I think they'll be able to harass Raiola into some bad decisions in Nebraska's first true road game of the year. If these Maryland receivers can help out Washington a little bit, I think the Terps have a chance to win this outright. Nebraska can't run the ball, and I certainly don't trust them to cover a TD on the road against a team that has proven itself to be pretty competent this year even without much of an offense.

Maryland got behind early but Nebraska predictably let them back in the game. Terps were up 7 late but could not get anything going on their last couple drives. No outright but they got the cover. They harassed Raiola into 3 picks but could not get the stops they needed late.
 
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9. Oklahoma -+ whatever v Texas: The line is currently Oklahoma -1, ultimately, I'd be fine with whatever it is. If Mateer plays, which I think this is what the current line is assuming, fine. If he doesn't, and the line drops to likely OU +3 or more, then I'd play that too. I have a little bit of fear that Mateer plays and then he doesn't really have the ability to throw the ball. The main reason for this play is that I don't see how Texas scores in this game. I've mentioned it in a couple of recaps, but if you watch Arch Manning, you know that he can't really play. He can't diagnose defenses pre snap, he certainly can't adjust post snap and he can't throw the ball accurately. This has been obvious all year but was laid bare in the Florida game. He had a receiver wide open on a double move, but he got such happy feet that he couldn't deliver the ball in a spot for a completion, much less a TD. He also managed to get their best offensive player Livingstone injured with such a horrendous throw that Livingstone had to make a circus catch when wide wide WIDE open, leaving him completely vulnerable to a low tackle when he was prone. Any kind od decent throw and he catches the ball in stride and scores untouched. He also is running with no instincts and certainly no grit, getting the bare minimum on every run, unless it's against a grammar school equivalent at SJSU. Florida's defense was good, but statistically no match for Oklahoma, and the Sooners are likely salivating like Pavlov's dogs to play him, I'm sure. Any tape of Arch elicits the same type of confidence William Wallace had in Braveheart at the thought of facing King Longshanks effeminate son. Texas has no shot of running it on the Sooners #2 ranked run defense and the #1 ranked defense overall. Oklahoma has the same issue, but this vaunted Texas defense just gave up 457 yards and 7.0 yards per play to the previously anemic Florida offense. Even if it's Michael Hawkins, at least he has some playmakers on the perimeter in Isaac TesLaa and Deion Burks to provide some potential explosiveness, and Jaydn Ott is due to produce some numbers that his time at Cal tells us he is capable of producing. Ultimately, I think OU will score enough to win because I'm skeptical that Arch can get anything going against this OU defense.

Mateer was worse than Manning. That Oklahoma offense is not good. I should have known that. I was blinded by the thought of Manning playing against that Oklahoma defense. He didn't do much, but he didn't kill them like he did prior, and he played an offense that was even more pathetic than the one he's responsible for.
 
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10. @Oregon -7(-115) v Indiana (BOL): This TD spread is about right, but I would require more than 7 for Indiana, and if I could get 7 or less, I just can't see any Big Ten team other than Ohio State staying within a TD of the Ducks in Autzen. As I mentioned during the ODU writeup, Indiana gave up some explosive runs to ODU in their game, and Oregon can throw explosive runs at you with any number of backs. I'm also sure that Dan Lanning is getting his team up to play this game because he's hearing how Penn State's uninspired performance at UCLA somehow de-legitimized their win in Happy Valley. Oregon deserves credit for that pretty thorough beating of Penn State and they got the benefit of the off week just like Indiana did. We all know Indiana hasn't proven it can beat a top top level team, but I don't hold that against them here because I think they are better than they were last year. My issue here is the undeniably tough travel as well as the motivational "shortcoming" this trip represents for IU. In retrospect, their motivational edge at home against Illinois was probably the strongest one anyone had this year. I don't think that's the case this year. Indiana has ZERO chance of losing any of it's remaining games other than this one and Penn State. They know they can beat Penn State after seeing them lately, so the Oregon game becomes less essential and more of a "nice to have". They know in the back of their mind that even if they lose this one to the Ducks in Eugene, even by a decent amount, they are sill getting into the playoff with one loss, which at this point looks highly likely. Indiana has great talent on both sides of the ball, but clearly Oregon has more, and the Ducks will be a motivated bunch in front of a crowd that affects the outcomes of games.

Just a dumb play here. I think I was right about the motivation, but Indiana is so good and Cignetti has them so buttoned up that I overestimated the level of motivation they needed. Maybe Oregon isn't as good as we thought based on the competition they've played, but to hold Oregon to 267 yards and only 40 in the second half is elite defense. I've been as much of a pro Indiana guy you can be, yet I missed a chance to ride them for stupid reasons. Now they won't be less than somewhere around a 24 point favorite the rest of the way other than Penn State.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. Old Dominion -14.5 @Marshall (BR): Old Dominion has a legit shot at making the playoff if they can run the table, and they have no margin for error based on where they sit in the pecking order. So far this year, this team has been a wrecking crew against everyone they've played other than Indiana, who gave them their only loss. Having said that, they went into that house of horrors in Bloomington and lost only 27-14 and gashed the Hoosiers on the ground in the process, with Colton Joseph breaking two huge runs. Their ability to get big plays on the ground is nothing new. They're 4th in the country in yards per rush and had a multitude of big plays on the ground last year and the year before. Since 2023 they've broken 12 runs of more than 60 yards. Joseph is also torching people through the air, averaging over 10 yards per attempt. Marshall is rebuilding from nothing after Charles Huff left for Southern Miss. Tony Gibson is a good defensive mind but he doesn't have the horses yet, as the Herd has been giving up big yardage to everyone. They got outgained by 200 yards in their only FBS game at home by Missouri State, and even La La and Lunch Winfield put 54 points on them. The yardage numbers aren't any prettier, as they rank 120th in yards per play, 93rd in yards per rush and 126th in yards per pass despite playing schedule full of cupcakes(130th). Offensively, Carlos Del Rio Wilson has been good at QB after transferring from Syracuse, but he's only played defenses that aren't in the same stratosphere as ODU. The Monarchs have been very good on defense as well, including ranking 10th against the pass, so Wilson will have his work cut out for him. There's some concern because ODU has a huge game at JMU next week, but they can't afford any slip ups and need to blow the dregs out to have credibility for the playoff. ODU is miles better than Marshall at this point.
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Completely agree with you here my man. ODU is on a completely different level than Marshall. The math geek in me hates that its 14.5 but this has high blowout potential.
 
I like most of your plays as usual. The only game I disagree with is Texas. They were a double-digit favorite pre-season in this game. Now they are getting points? It is too much of a free fall. Texas wins. I also do not trust Oklahoma.

Best of luck today!
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Oregon -7(-115) v Indiana (BOL): This TD spread is about right, but I would require more than 7 for Indiana, and if I could get 7 or less, I just can't see any Big Ten team other than Ohio State staying within a TD of the Ducks in Autzen. As I mentioned during the ODU writeup, Indiana gave up some explosive runs to ODU in their game, and Oregon can throw explosive runs at you with any number of backs. I'm also sure that Dan Lanning is getting his team up to play this game because he's hearing how Penn State's uninspired performance at UCLA somehow de-legitimized their win in Happy Valley. Oregon deserves credit for that pretty thorough beating of Penn State and they got the benefit of the off week just like Indiana did. We all know Indiana hasn't proven it can beat a top top level team, but I don't hold that against them here because I think they are better than they were last year. My issue here is the undeniably tough travel as well as the motivational "shortcoming" this trip represents for IU. In retrospect, their motivational edge at home against Illinois was probably the strongest one anyone had this year. I don't think that's the case this year. Indiana has ZERO chance of losing any of it's remaining games other than this one and Penn State. They know they can beat Penn State after seeing them lately, so the Oregon game becomes less essential and more of a "nice to have". They know in the back of their mind that even if they lose this one to the Ducks in Eugene, even by a decent amount, they are sill getting into the playoff with one loss, which at this point looks highly likely. Indiana has great talent on both sides of the ball, but clearly Oregon has more, and the Ducks will be a motivated bunch in front of a crowd that affects the outcomes of games.
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I’m all bout this one. Of course I been fading Hoosiers since last year playoff game, Iowa at least covered last week! Think reality that they are a solid team but no way I believe they on this level sets in today.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
I like most of your plays as usual. The only game I disagree with is Texas. They were a double-digit favorite pre-season in this game. Now they are getting points? It is too much of a free fall. Texas wins. I also do not trust Oklahoma.

Best of luck today!
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I don’t disagree with you in the sense the line value is awful but I’m just not sure I trust Texas to be able to score points. Feel kinda same bout the under, seems super obvious and no doubt is way lower than it woulda been earlier in year or even if Mateer hadn’t been hurt. Think this just a stay away for me, I do like manning rush prop even tho sacks a concern. Maybe some kinda under live?
 
11. @Georgia State +3 v Appalachian State(BOL): Usually my starting point when handicapping any game is to take the two teams and line them up by unit and compare their performance in key metrics. In this game, Appy comes out way ahead because GSU looks like the worst team in the country. If you went just off that matrix, you would probably lay the short number with Appy State here. But this is a wildly misleading situation to that end. Appy has played the #128 schedule, while Georgia State has played the #11 schedule per Sagarin. That is extremely rare for a Sun Belt team, but that's what happens when you have Ole Miss, Memphis and Vandy in the non-conference and your first conference game is with JMU. Despite the easy schedule, Appy State really has nothing impressive on their resume. In fact, they were lucky to win last week against the snake bitten 0-6 Oregon State Beavers. GSU got steamrolled by Ole Miss and Vandy, but in their other games, they hung tough with Memphis, being outgained only by 13 yards and played JMU to a standstill at home, losing 14-7 after shutting out the Dukes in the first half and actually outgaining them on a per play basis. Appy State is without question the worst FBS team the Panthers will have played and adjusting for schedules, at best these teams are even. I'm not wild about ultimate nomad TJ Finley being the QB I'm counting on, but he hasn't been terrible this year and should see some class relief in this 100th ranked Appy pass defense. You have to squint to see it, but there's value here.

Just an idiot trying to be cute here. There were 30 better candidates that I passed on to cast my lot with a horseshit Georgia State team. Appy State still isn't any good, but this was a moronic play. Georgia State just didn't show up. Game was over in the 1st quarter.
 
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B.A.R. said:
Thoughts on Illinois? Bet or not... Just would like to hear a few things...
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Illinois/Ohio State thoughts. 14.5 is about right. Gun to head I'd lay it because the Illinois OL looked pedestrian again in the run game against a mediocre at best Purdue run defense. They also again proved that they can't cover and their corners are still banged up. Altmyer is dangerous but he's likely to be under a ton of pressure. Ohio State has the right mindset too. That defense is on another level. the most they've given up is 9? The line seems about right but I would lean with laying the points. If the Illini get to 17 that will be a hell of an accomplishment(for anyone really...Washington only got 6 at home). I would have a hard time seeing them keep Ohio State under 31 with how their defense has been playing.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
I like most of your plays as usual. The only game I disagree with is Texas. They were a double-digit favorite pre-season in this game. Now they are getting points? It is too much of a free fall. Texas wins. I also do not trust Oklahoma.

Best of luck today!
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I think the difference of what the perception of what people thought Arch Manning was going to be vs reality is worth the 10 points. I can't disagree with you on Oklahoma though. At least the Oklahoma offense.
 
bones said:
Your work & write ups are incredible
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I appreciate the kind words Bones, but if everyone likes writeups, go check out Stuckey's writeup on Kent/UMass on Action Network. I went from never considering betting that game to happily laying with Kent in two minutes!

I pay attention to him quite a bit for validation and I think we're pretty similar in how we look at games. I'm on the opposite side of him quite a bit too(and I probably lose more of those than I win), but it helps the confidence in my play when he's on the same side.
 
12. Virginia Tech +14.5(-117) @Georgia Tech (BR): Getting the half point over 14 kind of pushed me over the edge on this one. I really like Georgia Tech, and if you look at their schedule, there isn't much left ACC-wise that scares you. One of the toughest tests will be next week at Duke, but first they have to play this game. VT has had a terrible year, and they lost pretty soundly at home last week after showing signs of life the previous week when they won outright at NC State. GT is coming off a bye, but this is still a sleepy spot for them and they've never been a team that exerts their dominance when favored. On the contrary, their history under Key suggests that they tend to play to the level of their opponent. Fundamentally, VT can't throw it effectively with Drones, but they've run it well(44th) against a tough schedule and GT is 99th in yards per rush against. VT has also been good on 3rd down and GT doesn't pressure the QB, so the Hokies might be able to sustain some drives. I liked what the Hokies looked like in that last road game under Montgomery, so I think they can hang pretty well here.

This was a cover that turned into a loss because the one time I get a nice backdoor, the coach inexplicably goes for 2 to cut it to 13. You go for 2 when you're down 8 to cut it to 6, not prior to that. Montgomery just stole money from the good people that had faith in his team. Oh and by the way, if you're going to go for two, can you run a play that's got at least a snowball's chance in hell?
 
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13. Arkansas +10.5 @Tennessee (BOL): Line value has shrunk here, but I was hoping for anything 10 or more, so it still qualifies. Sam Pittman was shown the door, so out the door goes one of the best road dog coverers of the past decade or so. Happy trails Sam!! Now we see a bit of a reset, well a lot of a reset as Petrino came in and cleaned house. He got rid of the DC Travis Williams who he reportedly almost got in a fight with at practice several times as well as most of the defensive staff. The result is a simplified approach, which can't possibly get any worse. Offensively, there really hasn't been any problem as the Hogs, even after a terrible performance two weeks ago against ND are still leading the country in rushing per attempts and are 2nd in yards per play overall. Tennessee's defense is above average, but has holes in it, especially against the pass and on 3rd down. Both of these offenses have major advantages against the respective defenses, so the fundamental handicap looks pretty even with a slight edge to Tennessee. Add in the dead cat bounce that a coaching change during a two week prep can provide and I think Arkansas makes a lot of sense as a dog here.

Arkansas almost came back and won this game, but as the Razorbacks usually do, they lost. That offense plays though. We'll see what kind of trajectory they go on with Petrino. 496 yards on the road. They gave up 485, but considering the opponent and venue, that's a pretty significant improvement!
 
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Immensely appreciate the writeups ..Helping pass the time at work this morning ...

Likely trailing on a couple


Sweep your slate brother 🤑...Awesome read !!!
 
14. Florida +7.5 @Texas A&M (BOL): This is another game in which the matrix favors A&M, but there's a couple reasons to throw that out. This actually reminds me of another point I was going to make in the OU/Texas write up. This Florida offense, which previously couldn't complete a pass or get a first down, torched Texas for 457 yards and DJ Lagway went 21/28 for 298 yards!. Either that Texas defense isn't what it's cracked up to be or Lagway got healthy over the off week and benefitted greatly by the addition of freshman superstar Dallas Wilson at wideout. I think it's a combination of both. I've always been a big fan of the RB Baugh, and now that Lagway looks like he did late last year, it makes a lot of sense to back Napier as a dog(where he thrives) in a game at A&M where the Aggies under Elko have been bad as a favorite. They burned me last week, but that brought Elko to merely 4-12 as a favorite since he's been here. I like A&M's offense, especially the receivers, but they had only 7 points midway through the 3rd quarter last week against a much weaker defense than Florida in Mississippi State. I think A&M is going to have a hard time shaking the Gators in this one. Dangerous game for them because they are undefeated and have some pretty lofty dreams that can be dashed if they lose this one.

Now Texas A&M is a covering machine when favored I guess. Florida went dormant in the 2nd half.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
13. Arkansas +10.5 @Tennessee (BOL): Line value has shrunk here, but I was hoping for anything 10 or more, so it still qualifies. Sam Pittman was shown the door, so out the door goes one of the best road dog coverers of the past decade or so. Happy trails Sam!! Now we see a bit of a reset, well a lot of a reset as Petrino came in and cleaned house. He got rid of the DC Travis Williams who he reportedly almost got in a fight with at practice several times as well as most of the defensive staff. The result is a simplified approach, which can't possibly get any worse. Offensively, there really hasn't been any problem as the Hogs, even after a terrible performance two weeks ago against ND are still leading the country in rushing per attempts and are 2nd in yards per play overall. Tennessee's defense is above average, but has holes in it, especially against the pass and on 3rd down. Both of these offenses have major advantages against the respective defenses, so the fundamental handicap looks pretty even with a slight edge to Tennessee. Add in the dead cat bounce that a coaching change during a two week prep can provide and I think Arkansas makes a lot of sense as a dog here.
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Worried bout vols pass rush and think they can do anything they want offensively. That said I certainly not trying to lay it. Agree arky should be able to throw, I’m kinda looking at green passing yards prop more so than worrying bout the side. Think it stands to reason if they stay within the number it most likely come thanks to green throwing for well over 250. As always appreciate the work you put in and enjoy reading your thoughts. Gl buddy
 
2daBank said:
Worried bout vols pass rush and think they can do anything they want offensively. That said I certainly not trying to lay it. Agree arky should be able to throw, I’m kinda looking at green passing yards prop more so than worrying bout the side. Think it stands to reason if they stay within the number it most likely come thanks to green throwing for well over 250. As always appreciate the work you put in and enjoy reading your thoughts. Gl buddy
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Maybe look at WR Blake over.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. Arkansas +10.5 @Tennessee (BOL): Line value has shrunk here, but I was hoping for anything 10 or more, so it still qualifies. Sam Pittman was shown the door, so out the door goes one of the best road dog coverers of the past decade or so. Happy trails Sam!! Now we see a bit of a reset, well a lot of a reset as Petrino came in and cleaned house. He got rid of the DC Travis Williams who he reportedly almost got in a fight with at practice several times as well as most of the defensive staff. The result is a simplified approach, which can't possibly get any worse. Offensively, there really hasn't been any problem as the Hogs, even after a terrible performance two weeks ago against ND are still leading the country in rushing per attempts and are 2nd in yards per play overall. Tennessee's defense is above average, but has holes in it, especially against the pass and on 3rd down. Both of these offenses have major advantages against the respective defenses, so the fundamental handicap looks pretty even with a slight edge to Tennessee. Add in the dead cat bounce that a coaching change during a two week prep can provide and I think Arkansas makes a lot of sense as a dog here.
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Bobby P aka Road Rash Face…wants this Arky job bad. Two weeks to prepare, plus Tenny has Bama up next in a look ahead spot. I’ll take the points too
 
15. @Wisconsin +3 v Iowa (BOL): I didn't think I'd be on this one, but I think Wisconsin's defense has been good enough to make this really hard on Iowa, especially if they have to go with the backup. There's been no indication if Gronowski is able to go, but if he does, he'll be not at 100% and he isn't very good to begin with. Wisconsin is 24th in yards per play against and 12th in yards per rush against despite having played some good teams(Alabama, Michigan). They have been torched through the air, but Iowa isn't the kind of team to do that to them, even if banged up. As for Wisconsin's offense, we've seen them at their worst, and it's bad, but there's a chance Edwards might play which brings a little bit of upside. I also like their receivers and even with the backups I don't show Iowa as having a major edge in that area as they've given up some pass yards themselves this year. If you look at Wisconsin's schedule, there aren't a lot of win opportunities...this one at home is one of the better ones. Also, the Badgers are coming off a couple of ugly losses in back to back years against Iowa, so they'll be motivated because this is a rivalry game. This is the rare time that I imagine I would be on the Badgers, but i think it makes sense here. They are overdue for a good effort.

(Fart noises). Fickell needs to be fired immediately.
 
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Taking a quick break but I have a few more. Good Lord, I might look at this as too many plays later, but some weeks you have more opinions than others. I'll have more in a little bit.
 
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