Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Into the meat of the college football schedule we go. There are some great games this week, including some that we have been waiting for pretty much all year. 7-6-1 last week, so we are inching toward a coin flip for the year, (43-46-2) but still miles to go on that front.

As we get further into the year...we're approaching the halfway mark for the season this week, the lines get tighter, but we have more data points to work with and fundamental handicapping becomes a little more concrete. Up until this week, we really couldn't trust bodies of work up to that point because so many teams had not played anyone with a pulse. Now just about everyone has to some degree, so we can draw more conclusions now than we did earlier in the year. On to the week.

Arizona State +6 WIN
Buffalo +10.5 WIN
Rutgers ML LOSS
Washington +3 LOSS
Pitt -3.5 LOSS
NIU +3 WIN
Virginia +7.5 WIN
San Jose State +1 LOSS
Texas -14 WIN
Penn State -3.5 LOSS
BYU -3 WIN
Fresno State +3.5 LOSS
Nevada +3.5 WIN
LSU +3.5 WIN
Oregon +3.5 WIN


9-6


Friday:

1. @Arizona State +6(and 'Rising') v Utah (BR) : I realize that Cam Rising appears to be coming back, and the line has risen about 2.5-3 points as a result, but I think I prefer the larger spread vs Rising than the alternative. It's true Rising has a great track record when he plays, but in the past 19 months he's played the equivalent of about 2 halves. Now he comes back and will be facing what has been a very competent defense. The Sun Devils rank 22nd in overall yards per play against, 11th against the run and 32nd against the pass. In all three of those areas, I have the SunDevils with the edge over the Utes offense, Rising or no Rising. Utah is good on 3rd down defense, but they have had all kinds of problems on 3rd down on offense. Offensively, ASU has been very solid, especially at home, and although the Utah D has been solid, they haven't been overwhelming in the trenches. Their run D has been just ok, which is good news for Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt, and they haven't been able to generate any pressure at all. Utah is also 3-8-1 since 2021 as a road favorite, including 6 outright losses when in that role. I like the fight ASU has shown thus far this year, and I don't think they'll be intimidated by the Utes. I think this will be a close game so l will gladly take the points.


This one was the old, "If you read this you had tomorrow's newspaper today." Rising was terrible most of the night and had zero continuity with his receivers. Skattebo was great.
 
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2. @Buffalo +10.5 v Toledo (BOL) : We have Toledo coming off a nice performance at home against who has become their top rival in Miami(Oh), and probably one of the teams if not THE team they perceive as their main competition in the MAC. The problem with Toledo is that although they have a 4-1 record they have been very inconsistent, beating Mississippi State like a drum and then following that up with a stinker the next week against Western Kentucky. That happened two weeks after they had escaped a loss at home vs UMass where they were dominated in the boxscore 384-258. They also find themselves in a sandwich spot because they have to go to Northern Illinois next week. Buffalo on the other hand has also had some variance in their efforts, but they are coming off a thumping by UConn 2 weeks ago but were off last week giving Pete Lembo 2 weeks to prepare for the Rockets. Despite being clobbered by UConn, they also have a win at NIU and a complete demolition of the UMass team that Toledo had a very hard time handling. Buffalo has played very good defense this year especially in the pass game. Toledo QB Tucker Gleason has been wildly inconsistent, but they can throw it better than they can run it. Buffalo should have no problems stopping Toledo's 113th ranked run offense and they themselves are 15th in yards per pass attempt against. Buffalo is going to have a hard time moving the ball consistently on Toledo, but they'll have a big special teams edge(all Lembo teams do) and I trust Lembo a lot more than I trust Candle as a favorite. It's a good spot for the Bulls here and a bad one for Toledo, so I'll take the double digits.

Massive coaching mismatch here, and they eventually benched Gleason. Bulls were great on defense all day. Toledo might be a play on next week if they are dogged at NIU
 
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3. @Rutgers ML (-125)BOL v Wisconsin: Even when Rutgers gets absolutely dominated, like they did 2 Fridays ago against Washington, they cover as a home favorite. Wisconsin is nowhere near the level of Washington in my opinion, so they chances of that happening again are pretty unlikely. Schiano v2 is now 9-3 as a home favorite since he's been back and I think we have some value here based on the results of both teams next week. When I lined these teams up unit by unit, it was a coin flip, but if you back out the results of Wisconsin's game last week against the now deceased Purdue Boilermakers, the picture changes quite a bit. Braedyn(yes that's how you spell his name)Locke threw for 359 yards on 31 attempts which is hilariously out of whack for what the rest of his career sample size looks like. That gives you an idea of just what we're dealing with when it comes to this Purdue defense. Despite that, the Boilers still managed to pick off Locke twice. This Rutgers defense has been surprisingly bad at stopping the run, but they righted the ship on the road in Lincoln last week, holding the Huskers to 3.2 yards per carry among their running backs and sacking Dylan Raiola for 32 yards in losses. heir pass defense is 21st so if Locke thinks he's turned into 1990 Ty Detmer overnight, he might want to rethink that. Wisconsin's defense is mediocre at best, they can't get off third down and they can't pressure the QB, so even someone as easily confused as Athan Kaliakmanis might feel comfortable in the pocket. I think Rutgers gets back on the winning track here and -125 isn't cost prohibitive to bet the home win here.

Wow, this one was way off, but I don't know that anyone could have predicted this kind of game. It was over in the first couple minutes. Rutgers is in deep trouble if their defense gets manhandled, and somehow the Badgers managed to do that. We knew about the Rutgers run D, which is officially non-existent but I didn't expect Locke to have success against that pass defense Kaliakmanis is an abomination. Also, I liked Walker a lot when he was at Oklahoma and he's the man now that Mellusi is done. Badgers look somewhat legit.
 
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Always enjoy your analysis, Brass. I don't have time to handicap anymore, but I get a good feel for the weekend by reading you and by reading a site where the guy lists every college pick by every public picker. Keeps good records on how they do too

Keep up the good work.

If you or any of the other handicappers are interested the link to the guy's website is:

gamedaycole.com

picks – Cole's Gameday Blog

gamedaycole.com gamedaycole.com
 
TahoeLegend said:
Always enjoy your analysis, Brass. I don't have time to handicap anymore, but I get a good feel for the weekend by reading you and by reading a site where the guy lists every college pick by every public picker. Keeps good records on how they do too

Keep up the good work.

If you or any of the other handicappers are interested the link to the guy's website is:

gamedaycole.com

picks – Cole's Gameday Blog

gamedaycole.com gamedaycole.com
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Thanks Tahoe!
 
4. Washington +3 @Iowa (BR): I've stared at the screen looking at these numbers for about 30 minutes, and I've looked at them too long to not write it up. It's a really awful spot for Washington. Two weeks ago, they went to Rutgers, then came all the way back home to play Michigan in an emotional revenge spot, and now they have to fly back east to play Iowa, which represents the seventh week in a row they have played without a week off. It's about as bad a spot as you can find. Having said all that, I still think the line has value. These days, all of the intricacies of handicapping are now reflected in the lines, and I would suggest that you can make a case that they are over-emphasized. In many cases, a team coming off a bad performance is given extra consideration in the line, which didn't used to be the case. Strictly by the numbers of how these teams have scrimmaged on the field thus far this year, I would make Washington a 7 point favorite on a neutral field. Go ahead and give Iowa 3 points for home field and you get to 4, maybe 3. Is there 6 points worth of value in the spot? Also, when we are talking about Iowa, 3 points is a lot of points, considering the number of games they've played, especially at home, that come down to the wire. Washington ranks 14th in yards per play on offense and 6th in yards per play on defense. They've outgained their opponents by 207 yards per game, and dropped 422 yards on Michigan's defense last week. Iowa cannot throw the ball, and Washington ranks 3rd in yards per pass attempt against, so they really don't even have to worry about Cade McNamara throwing the ball which will allow them to do everything they can to keep Kaleb Johnson from busting long runs. Johnson busting long runs has pretty much been Iowa's only offense, and I see very few other avenues to significant points for Iowa. How about Washington's offense? It's been very good, both on the ground with Jonah Coleman as well as through the air with Will Howard running Jedd Fisch's offense. Iowa is still good on defense, but their numbers aren't as good as usual, as they rank 59th in yards per play and 75th in yards per pass attempt against. Washington also gets pressure on the QB while Iowa, as usual, doesn't provide a ton of pressure. I know that a lot of people are laying with Iowa, but you almost have to assume that Washington's effort is lacking or that Iowa will have a ton of intangibles to deliver themselves a win. I don't like to rely on that, and I think Washington is going to give a great effort, as they already have 2 losses and should feel as though they can hang with anyone. I acknowledge that this is a bad spot for Washington, but I still think they are the better team here.

Officially the worst write up of the year. If you read it, you can kind of see that I knew it, but did it anyway. How badly would Washington have had to outplay Iowa to get this cover, considering everything? They outgained them by 60 yards and were outgaining them during the entire game and lost by 24 points. They never came close to controlling the game because the can't make a kick and the fail on 4th down almost every time when the game's in doubt. To Win this game they would have had to have a 625-205 yard edge, and even then they probably would have lost by a FG. Just a ridiculously bad idea to back the Huskies here.
 
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5. @Pitt -3.5 v Cal (BOL) : This is another terrible spot, but in this case, the team that has the bad spot also has the disadvantages in the matchup. I think Pitt might be due for a loss, but i don't think it's gonna come here. Cal is coming off perhaps the most crushing loss any team has had all year(and as the last leg of a 4 team money line round robin, it was painful for me as well) and now they have to travel all the way across the country for the third time already and play a Pitt team that has been very good on offense. Eli Holstein has had some turnover trouble but he's thrown 15 TDs and run for 3. RB Desmond Reid has been one of the best offensive players in the country, accounting for 700 total yards and they have a big play receiver in Konata Mumpfield. Defensively they've been pretty good as well, ranking 26th in yards per play and 13th in 3rd down defense. I like Cal QB Fernando Mendoza, but he's going to be running for his life, as Pitt can rush the passer and Cal has been getting killed in pass protection. If Cal covers this it will either be a heroic effort by them or a "shit the bed" type performance by Pitt. They are capable of that, and this is definitely a square play, but there's too much pointing to Pitt here in my opinion to not lay a relatively short number.

Man, massive kudos to the Cal defense here. In a horrific spot against a previously very good offense, they completely flummoxed Pitt. After the Panthers kicked a 58(!!) yard field goal with 10 minutes left in the 2nd quarter to go up 17-6, here were the Pitt drives: Punt, Fumble, INT, INT, Punt, Punt, Punt. The Cal defense held Pitt to 108 yards from that point and put their offense in a position to win the game, which they failed to do. Take away the 72 yard run Desmond Reid broke early and they hardly allowed 200 yards for the whole game. I still think this line was short, and if Eli Holstein is anything but horrific we cash this ticket, but I take my hand off to the Bears.
 
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6. Northern Illinois +3 @Bowling Green (BOL) : We head back toward NIU as a road dog. I actually have a MAC future on BG, but I like the matchup for the Huskies here. NIU wants to run the ball, and I think they'll be able to do it because BG has had a hard time stopping anyone on the ground, including Akron last week who ran for 6.7 yards per carry if take out Ben Finley tripping over his own feet in the pocket 3 times. BG opened some eyes because they hung very tough with both Penn State and Texas A&M and looked really good on offense in spurts, but their season long stats tell a bit of a different story. They're certainly not bad, but they rank 90th in yards per carry and just in the middle of the pack throwing it with Connor Bazelak. NIU's defense is elite. They held the two Power 4 teams they played, Notre Dame and Nc State to 286 and 171 total yards respectively and rank highly in every conceivable defensive category, including ranking 1st in sack rate, which is bad news for a guy like Bazelak, who's about as shiftless in the pocket as any QB in the country. The Huskies are 15-5-1 as a road dog since Hammock got there in 2019, so there's no reason not to back them here in a game they have so many edges and in a role they thrive in.

This NIU defense is something else, and this Huskie team cannot be denied as a road dog. 210 total yards for a pretty good BG offense. Look out next week though. Huskies might be a home favorite.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
5. @Pitt -3.5 v Cal (BOL) : This is another terrible spot, but in this case, the team that has the bad spot also has the disadvantages in the matchup. I think Pitt might be due for a loss, but i don't think it's gonna come here. Cal is coming off perhaps the most crushing loss any team has had all year(and as the last leg of a 4 team money line round robin, it was painful for me as well) and now they have to travel all the way across the country for the third time already and play a Pitt team that has been very good on offense. Eli Holstein has had some turnover trouble but he's thrown 15 TDs and run for 3. RB Desmond Reid has been one of the best offensive players in the country, accounting for 700 total yards and they have a big play receiver in Konata Mumpfield. Defensively they've been pretty good as well, ranking 26th in yards per play and 13th in 3rd down defense. I like Cal QB Fernando Mendoza, but he's going to be running for his life, as Pitt can rush the passer and Cal has been getting killed in pass protection. If Cal covers this it will either be a heroic effort by them or a "shit the bed" type performance by Pitt. They are capable of that, and this is definitely a square play, but there's too much pointing to Pitt here in my opinion to not lay a relatively short number.
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Fucjing love pitt, I been on this bandwagon all year, mentioned last week these guys have a legit path to the acc championship! Seems anytime Narduzzi gets a qb and lets his OC run the offense pitt becomes formidable. Couple Pitt wins are looking better by the week as well. Kinda disagree pitt due for a loss, I think they a trip to smu away from hosting Clemson undefeated! Not only this a bad spot for cal but this a nightmare matchup for cal in almost every stat I value! Pitt the superior 3rd down team on both sides the ball, the better red zone team, I’ll take Holstein over Mendoza all day every day and sure felt like Mendoza got kinda banged up last week to boot, should be more the same here as Pitt can get after the qb and cal ranks near the bottom the nation in protecting Mendoza. Everything lines up for Pitt to win this game by dd. Love this one! Glad you agree!
 
7. @Virginia +7.5 v Louisville(BR) : I've watched Louisville pretty closely the past couple of weeks, and I have to say that I've been less than impressed with the overall vibe of that program. QB Tyler Shough is pretty good, but pretty much everything has been on his shoulders because the Cards can't really run it, and their defense is having a hard time getting stops. Now they travel to Charlottesville to play a Virginia team that is surprisingly 4-1. I have to admit that I did not expect to be backing Tony Elliott this year...I'm kind of surprised he's still around after the way things looked during the first two years of his tenure but they've turned things around. This game is especially vital for the Hoos because if you look at their schedule after this, there aren't a lot of chances to get the two wins necessary for a bowl. Consider: They have road games at Clemson, Pitt, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and their home games left are with North Carolina(ok) and SMU. This might be the second best shot they have to win, so they'll have some urgency here. Louisville is coming off a loss that had to be disconcerting for them, losing as a TD favorite and looking listless in the process. I'd expect a turnaround, but the vibe just wan't there. Offensively, they'll be able to throw it on Virginia, but they won't be able to run it as the Hoos are 16th in the country in yards per carry against. Louisville actually has a worse pass defense than Virginia having played a schedule not necessarily packed with downfield passing threats, and they can't rush the passer at all, so Anthony Collandrea, who can be explosive has a nice matchup. I think Louisville is going to have to play at least an A- or B+ game to win the game outright, let alone cover more than a TD. They haven't really proven enough to be this much of a favorite on the road, so I'll take my chances with the points here.

Cavs really should have won this game outright. 448 yards and 20 points? They couldn't finish in the red zone or they win this game easily. 7.5 was never really threatened. We continue to wait for Louisville to be anything other than a mediocre team that just exists.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. @Virginia +7.5 v Louisville(BR) : I've watched Louisville pretty closely the past couple of weeks, and I have to say that I've been less than impressed with the overall vibe of that program. QB Tyler Shough is pretty good, but pretty much everything has been on his shoulders because the Cards can't really run it, and their defense is having a hard time getting stops. Now they travel to Charlottesville to play a Virginia team that is surprisingly 4-1. I have to admit that I did not expect to be backing Tony Elliott this year...I'm kind of surprised he's still around after the way things looked during the first two years of his tenure but they've turned things around. This game is especially vital for the Hoos because if you look at their schedule after this, there aren't a lot of chances to get the two wins necessary for a bowl. Consider: They have road games at Clemson, Pitt, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and their home games left are with North Carolina(ok) and SMU. This might be the second best shot they have to win, so they'll have some urgency here. Louisville is coming off a loss that had to be disconcerting for them, losing as a TD favorite and looking listless in the process. I'd expect a turnaround, but the vibe just wan't there. Offensively, they'll be able to throw it on Virginia, but they won't be able to run it as the Hoos are 16th in the country in yards per carry against. Louisville actually has a worse pass defense than Virginia having played a schedule not necessarily packed with downfield passing threats, and they can't rush the passer at all, so Anthony Collandrea, who can be explosive has a nice matchup. I think Louisville is going to have to play at least an A- or B+ game to win the game outright, let alone cover more than a TD. They haven't really proven enough to be this much of a favorite on the road, so I'll take my chances with the points here.
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I really don’t know much bout uva this year but ville laying 7.5 on the road def caught my eye, gotta look closer at uva but I don’t see any world where I would lay this with ville! Ville only respectable win was vs Gtech and that was about as fluky a win it gets, Gtech dominated that game but from what i recall ville got 14 points off a blocked fg and another luck box play. Tech out gained them by 100 yards and clearly looked like the better team, flip that result and there no damn way ville is laying more than a td here! I just gotta look closer at uva as I havnt followed them much but it either dog or nothing cause ville has shown nothing to be this kind of road chalk!
 
8. San Jose State +1 @colorado State (BOL) : This line has passed through zero, so someone sees the Rams as a viable favorite, but I don't. They played better last week at Oregon State, especially in the run game, but Purdue ran the ball well against Oregon State so that's no great accomplishment. Colorado State has definitely played a tougher schedule than SJSU, but they were completely non-competitive in their toughest games against Texas and Colorado. UTEP basically played them to a standstill, so there isn't much there to convince me that they should be favored over a well coached 4-1 team like San Jose State. Their statistical profile leaves much to be desired as well, as the only thing they do even reasonably well is run the ball. Stud WR Tory Horton is back and apparently healthy, but even when he's played, QB Fowler-Nicolosi hasn't been effective throwing the ball and they can't convert a third down. SJSU on the flip side has been good throwing the ball, mostly due to Nick Nash, who has super human numbers so far this year, averaging more than 11 catches per game and 145 yards per game. In their toughest game, the Spartans played an epic game with Washington State and basically played them to statistical standstill, losing a heartbreaker 54-52. Ultimately, I think the Spartans are the better team here with the better coach. SJSU QB Emmett Brown was benched late in their close win over Nevada, but the backup played well, so they are ok with either option. Colorado State can't rush the passer, so they'll both be comfortable and have plenty of time to work the ball to Nash.

I thought coaching would be the difference in this one and it did, but on the wrong side. SJSU has 12 penalties for over 100 yards and that made a lot of difference in a 1 point spread that was played to an otherwise statistical standstill. Kudos to CSU. I thought SJSU was clearly the better team but they weren't Saturday.
 
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9. Texas -14(-120) v Oklahoma (BR) : I bought this to 14, but I wouldn't abandon this play until it got to above 16, and maybe not even then. I just can't see how Oklahoma moves the ball in this game. It kind of reminds me of what Oklahoma was up against 2 years ago when QB injuries left the Sooners in a position where all they could do was just get in the fetal position and pray for it to be over. They're not in that bad of a spot here, but it's pretty bad. They can't run the ball to save their lives against even mediocre defenses, let alone the #2 rush defense in the country. They also have no passing game because all of their receivers are hurt, they can't protect the quarterback, ranking outside the top 100 in sacks allowed. They can't covert third downs and they're playing a freshman QB because their starter has been exposed as a fraud. Defensively they've been good, but they gave up 482 yards to Auburn in their only foray away from Norman, and Auburn isn't close to as good on offense as Texas is. Th Longhorns proved a lot to me when they moved the ball at will on Michigan in Ann Arbor when the game was still in doubt, and Oklahoma ranks only 83rd in yards per pass attempt against. It's risky to lay points like this in rivalry games, but I think the smart money is going to come in heavy on Texas from here on out. Texas has Georgia coming in next week, but I doubt the Longhorns will show any quarter in this one.

It took awhile, but Texas just shoved OU into a locker eventually. OU turned it over rapid fire late in the first half and the game was over. Overmatched teams with freshman QBs and backups all over the field tend to do that often.
 
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10. Penn State -3.5 @USC (BOL) : This line has fallen a bit after climbing earlier in the week, but I've had my eye on Penn State in this one for awhile. USC is definitely better on defense, but they still don't have the horses to be good. They knew Minnesota was going to run it on them last week in crunch time, and it didn't matter. Penn State was without Nick Singleton last week, but I think that was more out of caution than anything else. If they have both Singleton and Allen, USC has no shot at stopping their run game. The other problem for USC is something I didn't anticipate. I've said many times that you can just book an efficient offense under Lincoln Riley, but lately that hasn't been the case. For the year they are now only 81st in yards per pass attempt and their running game with Joquavious Marks(he goes by Woody now that he's at USC I guess...I prefer Joquavious) is not explosive. The Penn State defense puts immense pressure on the QB and they have been solid in all areas on that side of the ball. Big ten teams have had issues with the long travel so far this year, but Penn State is so good in this role (10-1 since 2021 as a rod favorite) that I think it's definitely worth laying this number.

Fuck James Franklin. I wish they would have lost.
 
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11. @Fresno State +3.5 v Washington State (BR) : Fresno State had a week to lick their wounds after getting pulverized by UNLV 2 weeks ago and now they tee it up with Washington State at home looking to redeem themselves. This is going to be a much different scenario for the Bulldogs and especially QB Mikey Keene, who is nowhere near as bad as he looked at UNLV. In that game he was running for his life against a team that was playing with their hair on fire with a great defensive scheme. Now he's going to face this Wazzou defense, which is coming off a game in which they were torched by Boise and they've given up 450 yards to everyone on their schedule. They can cover a bit, but stink at everything else on defense, most notably pressuring the QB, which will be a major relief for the beleaguered Keene. Cougs QB John Mateer is a load to handle, but Fresno has been good against the pass, ranking 12thand they get off the field on 3rd down(11th). Fresno is a proud program so I think they'll bounce back in front of their fans, and you have to wonder about the motivation for Wazzou. They had a 4-0 start with only Mountain West teams and the Beavs left on their schedule, so there was a whisper of a playoff in the back of their minds, but now that's gone after the Boise loss, and they don't even have a conference title to play for. I think Fresno will have the motivational edge and I also think they've got edges in more areas than the Cougs do. As a result, I'll take the FG+ with the home team.

Not gonna fret too much about this one, but Fresno was the right side here. Mikey Keene was terrible against a defense he should have shredded, and his backbreaking and boneheaded pick 6 with 7 minutes left and Fresno up 2 blew the game.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
11. @Fresno State +3.5 v Washington State (BR) : Fresno State had a week to lick their wounds after getting pulverized by UNLV 2 weeks ago and now they tee it up with Washington State at home looking to redeem themselves. This is going to be a much different scenario for the Bulldogs and especially QB Mikey Keene, who is nowhere near as bad as he looked at UNLV. In that game he was running for his life against a team that was playing with their hair on fire with a great defensive scheme. Now he's going to face this Wazzou defense, which is coming off a game in which they were torched by Boise and they've given up 450 yards to everyone on their schedule. They can cover a bit, but stink at everything else on defense, most notably pressuring the QB, which will be a major relief for the beleaguered Keene. Cougs QB John Mateer is a load to handle, but Fresno has been good against the pass, ranking 12thand they get off the field on 3rd down(11th). Fresno is a proud program so I think they'll bounce back in front of their fans, and you have to wonder about the motivation for Wazzou. They had a 4-0 start with only Mountain West teams and the Beavs left on their schedule, so there was a whisper of a playoff in the back of their minds, but now that's gone after the Boise loss, and they don't even have a conference title to play for. I think Fresno will have the motivational edge and I also think they've got edges in more areas than the Cougs do. As a result, I'll take the FG+ with the home team.
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This is the one I was just capping -- love to see you thinking the same!
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Rutgers ML (-125)BOL v Wisconsin: Even when Rutgers gets absolutely dominated, like they did 2 Fridays ago against Washington, they cover as a home favorite. Wisconsin is nowhere near the level of Washington in my opinion, so they chances of that happening again are pretty unlikely. Schiano v2 is now 9-3 as a home favorite since he's been back and I think we have some value here based on the results of both teams next week. When I lined these teams up unit by unit, it was a coin flip, but if you back out the results of Wisconsin's game last week against the now deceased Purdue Boilermakers, the picture changes quite a bit. Braedyn(yes that's how you spell his name)Locke threw for 359 yards on 31 attempts which is hilariously out of whack for what the rest of his career sample size looks like. That gives you an idea of just what we're dealing with when it comes to this Purdue defense. Despite that, the Boilers still managed to pick off Locke twice. This Rutgers defense has been surprisingly bad at stopping the run, but they righted the ship on the road in Lincoln last week, holding the Huskers to 3.2 yards per carry among their running backs and sacking Dylan Raiola for 32 yards in losses. heir pass defense is 21st so if Locke thinks he's turned into 1990 Ty Detmer overnight, he might want to rethink that. Wisconsin's defense is mediocre at best, they can't get off third down and they can't pressure the QB, so even someone as easily confused as Athan Kaliakmanis might feel comfortable in the pocket. I think Rutgers gets back on the winning track here and -125 isn't cost prohibitive to bet the home win here.
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Yessir!!
 
12. @BYU -3 v Arizona (BOL) : I might get burned by Arizona again here, but are they really going to go into 2 hostile Mormon environments in 3 weeks and come out with wins in both of them? The Utah win, which I'm still trying to figure out, looks more like an outlier than their mediocre performances, which have been the case in the rest of their games. Fifita and Mc Millan have had their moments this year, but Fifita has thrown 6 INTs compared with 7 TDs, certainly not a good ratio in today's college football landscape. BYU is undefeated mostly because of their defense. They gave up the most yards of any game this year last week at Baylor, but that was mostly due to being in prevent for the final 3 quarters after blitzing the Bears and going up 21-0 in the first 12 minutes of the game. They've held SMU to less than 300 yards, completely spooked Avery Johnson of K State and took care of business in their other two games against patsies. They're ranked 8th in yards per play against, 29th against the run and 6th in yards per pass attempt against. In addition to that, they're 8th in takeaways per game, and Arizona has been turning it over. The Arizona defense is hasn't scared anyone, so Jake Retzlaff and Chase Roberts should have some big plays in them in a very charged up environment with the team holding a 5-0 record. I'm still not sold on this new staff. If they pull off another tough road win I guess I'll have to shut my trap about these guys, but I think doing that is going to be a heck of a lot to ask.

Arizona didn't play bad, but this was a tough spot for them. 3 picks by Fifita didn't help their cause. BYU is resourceful this year.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
9. Texas -14(-120) v Oklahoma (BR) : I bought this to 14, but I wouldn't abandon this play until it got to above 16, and maybe not even then. I just can't see how Oklahoma moves the ball in this game. It kind of reminds me of what Oklahoma was up against 2 years ago when QB injuries left the Sooners in a position where all they could do was just get in the fetal position and pray for it to be over. They're not in that bad of a spot here, but it's pretty bad. They can't run the ball to save their lives against even mediocre defenses, let alone the #2 rush defense in the country. They also have no passing game because all of their receivers are hurt, they can't protect the quarterback, ranking outside the top 100 in sacks allowed. They can't covert third downs and they're playing a freshman QB because their starter has been exposed as a fraud. Defensively they've been good, but they gave up 482 yards to Auburn in their only foray away from Norman, and Auburn isn't close to as good on offense as Texas is. Th Longhorns proved a lot to me when they moved the ball at will on Michigan in Ann Arbor when the game was still in doubt, and Oklahoma ranks only 83rd in yards per pass attempt against. It's risky to lay points like this in rivalry games, but I think the smart money is going to come in heavy on Texas from here on out. Texas has Georgia coming in next week, but I doubt the Longhorns will show any quarter in this one.
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100% here -- saw you post this last night and pulled up the screen to bet and then got distracted by BS -- missed it, but hoping for some pre-game buyback to get back into the 14(ish) range -- GL today Brass....LFG
 
13. @Nevada +3.5(-116) v Oregon State (BR) : Oregon State is 4-1, but there isn't anything all that impressive about it. Wins against Idaho State, Purdue, San Diego State in the first start for a freshman QB and an OT fight t the death at home with Colorado State are their 4 wins. Their loss is a blowout to Oregon in the only game that Oregon actually looked like themselves. Now they go n the road as a road favorite at Nevada, a notoriously tricky place to play. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 but have outplayed that record, having had a couple of very tough and misleading losses. They could have easily beaten a solid San Jose State team on the road last week with a couple of bounces, and they have been able to run the ball with a couple of power 4 transfer running backs in Savion Red(Texas) and Pat Garwo(BC). Oregon State has been ne of the worst rush defenses in the country and that continued last week when Colorado State ran at will on them. Offensively, the Beavers want to run it also and they should have the edge in that regard when they're on offense, but they are much more one dimensional than Nevada is as Brendon Lewis the Nevada QB has a couple soldi receivers to throw to in Jaden Smith and Cortez Braham. I just don't think Oregon State is as good as it's record and I certainly don't think they're much better than the Wolf Pack. It's tough to play in Reno, I like the Pack here with the points.

Nevada only threw for 69 yards but still scored 42 points because Oregon State's run D is so bad. 353 yards on almost 10 yards per carry. Yikes.
 
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14. @LSU +3.5(-115) v Ole Miss (BOL) : Even though Ole Miss is a very good road favorite over the Kiffin years, LSU has been good as ahome dog, and I think this is a tough spot for Ole Miss. This will be their 7th game in a row, coming off a road tilt at South Carolina in which they got all the bounces, and now they have to play at Baton Rouge at night against an LSU team that was off last week. Say what you will about Brian Kelly, but he has been very good as a dog in his career. Ole Miss's defense has been very good, but this will be a legit offense that is starting to come together. They were very weak in the running game, but it looks like they've found something with freshman Caden Durham who is averaging 8 yards per carry and has also been very explosive catching balls out of the backfield. They LSU tackles are both NFL prospects and the Tigers are 3rd in Sacks allowed, so Nussmeier should have time to throw against a secondary that hasn't been tested much. On the flip side, LSU has given up a lot of passing yards, but they've been very good on third down and they will pressure Dart. He was better last week against South Carolina but he looked terrible when pressured the week before that by Kentucky. I like the spot for LSU, and they'll be motivated because neither of these teams can afford a loss here with what they've got coming up. I think it's going to be close, so I'll take a FG+ with the Tigers on their home field.

Great game that came down to the wire. Bad possession in OT lost it for Ole Miss...that and their inability to stop LSU on that last drive. Points definitely valuable in a game like this, but we ended up not needing them.
 
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15. @Oregon +3.5(-117) v Ohio State (BOL) : Definitely have to have a play on this one, right? Oregon has not gotten going at all this year, but I've seen a few instances where it just seemed like they were holding things back, the UCLA game being the most glaring example. The only game where it looked like they were 100% engaged and motivated was Oregon State, and they took care of business much to my detriment in the second half of that one. It seems as if this game has been circled for them all year. Ohio State is obviously a juggernaut, but I refuse to believe that Oregon is at any kind of talent disadvantage given all the guys they've accumulated. They've got an elite defensive line that can cause problems for Will Howard, and although their rush D numbers look just ok, that's because they had to play Aston Jeanty. Both Dillion Gabriel and Will Howard are question marks in my opinion, but I like Gabriel better. I think these teams are closer than they appear talent wise and Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. I can't pass up more than a FG with the Ducks here.

See above. This game was played to a standstill. Every time OSU seemed to have control, Oregon took it right back, and that was without a couple key players, once the WR got ejected, Oregon proved they have just been fucking around for most of the season, and they'll probably go back to doing just that for awhile.
 
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That's gonna be it for me. Some others I considered:

I liked Cincy because UCF is on quit watch and I'm a fan of Cincy QB Brendan Sorsby, but their defense is very vulnerable if UCF wakes up. I had a small bet on the dog +3 there, but not enough to write it up.

Stanford + the big number was a feeling I had, but there's no justification other than a feeling and ND's penchant to struggle in games like this.

ULM is not under any circumstances the kind of team you want to lay points with, but Southern Miss has nothing going for them. Jut about anyone else as a dog in this spot I would have considered, but not the Golden Eagles.

Rice is due. EJ Warner is way better than he's shown and this version of UTSA shouldn't be a road favorite under any circumstances, but Rice has been BAAAD. Spread also went from 6 to 3 so I lost interest.

Arky State's numbers are hideous, but I think they're a lot closer to Texas State than 13 or whatever the spread is.

I think Vandy can give Kentucky problems, and I probably should have written that one up, but Kentucky's defense is about as good as anyone's, and playing the Dores after that game last week seemed to be screaming a lack of value.

I show Iowa State having an edge in pretty much every category, but if they don't lose here(and Campbell is certainly going to lose) where will they. That scared me off.

Really liked UCLA to finally get on track, but again, I almost feel that their only success this year has been a result of the other team's indifference. A team like Minnesota(like Indiana) will give their best effort in a game like this.

The variables are there for Colorado to have success(K State can't rush the passer, Colorado might be able to rope a dope that offense) but I didn't want to fade Klieman in a very important spot for them.


That's it. I hope everyone has a prosperous week!
 
Br@ssknux said:
15. @Oregon +3.5(-117) v Ohio State (BOL) : Definitely have to have a play on this one, right? Oregon has not gotten going at all this year, but I've seen a few instances where it just seemed like they were holding things back, the UCLA game being the most glaring example. The only game where it looked like they were 100% engaged and motivated was Oregon State, and they took care of business much to my detriment in the second half of that one. It seems as if this game has been circled for them all year. Ohio State is obviously a juggernaut, but I refuse to believe that Oregon is at any kind of talent disadvantage given all the guys they've accumulated. They've got an elite defensive line that can cause problems for Will Howard, and although their rush D numbers look just ok, that's because they had to play Aston Jeanty. Both Dillion Gabriel and Will Howard are question marks in my opinion, but I like Gabriel better. I think these teams are closer than they appear talent wise and Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. I can't pass up more than a FG with the Ducks here.
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Damn, oppo here but totally understand playing the quack attack as home dogs, just think the strength of osu run game and those 2 nfl backs a lot to deal with. It’s like chip kelly wet dream having this kind of talent for his run game. Wouldn’t be surprised if ducks won, normally I’d have passed but as you said how can we not have a little action on this one!! At least one of us win!! Gl buddy
 
Ended up 9-6 for the week, which I'll take thanks to a nice finish in the night games. Back to .500, Hallelujah! 52-52-3 for the year. Embarking on adding comments to each writeup.
 
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