Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I have never posted a thread this early, but there's one I want to get out there because I know for sure I'll be on it and I don't think the line will get any lower.

Writeups went 10-3 last week which sends the season long tally to 50-30-2. (.625). Thanks to everyone for reading.

Michigan State -3 WIN
Minnesota +4.5 WIN
Texas A&M -10 WIN
Kent +7 LOSS
North Carolina -7 LOSS --Tar Heels are officially dead to me
BYU +5.5 LOSS
Purdue +11.5 WIN
Kentucky +22 WIN
Liberty -32.5 LOSS -- Hugh!! What happened, man?
Boston College +3 LOSS
Air Force +3.5 WIN
Arizona State +1 LOSS

6-6

1. Michigan State -3 @Indiana: I came into this season extremely skeptical of the Spartans, especially Mel Tucker, but who can argue with the results they've piled up? Admittedly, you could see that they had some talent at wide receiver last year with Nailor and Reed, but the addition of competent QB play(my former Naperville neighbor Peyton Thorne) has let those two blossom even more. Since I know I'll be on the Spartans here and I suspect the line will only go up, I figured I'd get this on paper now. Indiana is obviously not the same team they were last year. Their offense is legitimately bad by any measurement. Michael Penix, if he plays can't efficiently complete passes and he isn't a threat to run anymore. They can't run the ball, and their defense, which used to be a major strength, is just mediocre. They've never been strong in the home dog role, and MSU has a significant edge in just about every category I look at. This MSU offense is now up to 6th in yards per play in the country and is equally effective running and throwing the ball. Throw in MSU's absolute dominance in all their road games and this one shapes up as a no brainer.

I'm traveling this week, so I don't think I'll be able to get any additions to this until probably Thursday or Friday, but like I mentioned, I wanted to get these thoughts down now.
 
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EL CAPO said:
rutgers was the supposively sharp action last week. Now it's indiana. When will they give sparty respect ? I have sparty as a top 10 team. kenneth walker definately in the heisman mix
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Seemed like it was more of a matchup opponent for Rutgers. Not like Ohio St who Rutgers got blown off the field, but more like Michigan where Rutgers competed.
 
Feels like a game maybe IU gets an early TD and perhaps get a discount live.

Or, it's 24-3 at half lol.
 
B.A.R. said:
Feels like a game maybe IU gets an early TD and perhaps get a discount live.

Or, it's 24-3 at half lol.
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I could definitely see this. It happened last week. Sparty started terribly, but you could see it was right there for the taking is they just got out of their own way.
 
2. @Minnesota +4.5 v Nebraska: I'll be the first one to tell you that Nebraska does NOT deserve the fate that they've found themselves in this year. They've actually played pretty well, especially in the past few weeks, and they had yet another heartbreaking loss last week at home against Michigan after fighting back from a double digit deficit, only to lose like they've come accustomed to under Frost. That's just what they do. They find ways to lose games, either be a crushing turnover, or by a terrible special teams play...whatever. You name it, Nebraska has probably lost because of it during Frost's tenure. Now they have to get up off the mat after that excruciating loss last week and travel to Minneapolis and not only win, but cover a not inconsequential spread of 4 1/2. Since Frost has been in Lincoln, they have gone 3-12 straight up in their Big Ten road games, so this spread is assuming they'll do something that they seldom do, especially against PJ Fleck, who in the last two times in Minneapolis has pounded the Huskers 54-21 and 34-7 and last year won outright in Lincoln as a 9 point dog. Also, the Gophers are by no means overmatched on paper in this game, as it's a virtual toss up when you match the units up against each other. If I'm getting 4.5 points and the home field in a toss up game, I like my chances. This is especially true when my coach has pretty much owned the matchup and the favorite constantly finds ways to lose.
 
I've been buried with work this week so I haven't been able to keep up with line movement. I had some games circled that have definitely lost some line value.
 
3. Texas A&M -10 @Missouri: Typically, I would be a bit hesitant to back a team coming off such an emotional win as A&M did last week in knocking off Alabama, but if you've seen what Missouri has been up to in recent weeks, you would probably join me in my lack of concern. As is the trend, much of the media focus in the aftermath of the A&M/Bama game was on what Alabama failed to do, rather than what the Aggies accomplished, but I'm going to focus in that direction. It was a gutsy, clutch performance, both by their defense, who got a vital 3 and out late when they needed it, but also by QB Zach Calzada, who previously held A&M back, but in this case made all the plays late to help his team win. I think that result is most important for them gong forward, both for Calzada's confidence and in his team's confidence in him. He's going to have a much easier time this week, as Missouri sports one of the bottom handful of defenses in FBS. The Tigers are giving up 522 yards per game against FBS foes this year. It's almost obscene how terrible they've been against the run, as they've given up well over 7 yards per carry in the past few weeks and rank 121st in the country in run defense. Running the ball just happens to be A&M's forte, and I would not be surprised to see Achane and Spiller racing up and down the field from jump street. Even if Mizzou stacks the box, they've proven they can't stop the run and they've shown very little interest in tackling, but if we suppose they have some success, now that Calzada has gotten comfortable, it's likely he'll carve them up through the air. Defensively A&M might struggle some with the Missouri offense, but they rank 29th overall and 19th against the pass. I'll also point out that A&M has covered 7 straight as a road favorite, so with their newfound momentum and with such a severe advantage against that heinous Missouri defense, I'll lay the 10.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Texas A&M -10 @Missouri: Typically, I would be a bit hesitant to back a team coming off such an emotional win as A&M did last week in knocking off Alabama, but if you've seen what Missouri has been up to in recent weeks, you would probably join me in my lack of concern. As is the trend, much of the media focus in the aftermath of the A&M/Bama game was on what Alabama failed to do, rather than what the Aggies accomplished, but I'm going to focus in that direction. It was a gutsy, clutch performance, both by their defense, who got a vital 3 and out late when they needed it, but also by QB Zach Calzada, who previously held A&M back, but in this case made all the plays late to help his team win. I think that result is most important for them gong forward, both for Calzada's confidence and in his team's confidence in him. He's going to have a much easier time this week, as Missouri sports one of the bottom handful of defenses in FBS. The Tigers are giving up 522 yards per game against FBS foes this year. It's almost obscene how terrible they've been against the run, as they've given up well over 7 yards per carry in the past few weeks and rank 121st in the country in run defense. Running the ball just happens to be A&M's forte, and I would not be surprised to see Achane and Spiller racing up and down the field from jump street. Even if Mizzou stacks the box, they've proven they can't stop the run and they've shown very little interest in tackling, but if we suppose they have some success, now that Calzada has gotten comfortable, it's likely he'll carve them up through the air. Defensively A&M might struggle some with the Missouri offense, but they rank 29th overall and 19th against the pass. I'll also point out that A&M has covered 7 straight as a road favorite, so with their newfound momentum and with such a severe advantage against that heinous Missouri defense, I'll lay the 10.
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Not arguing, but Tex A&M didnt cover @ Colorado or their other road/neutral game vs Arkansas....They have put up 20 total points in those 2 games...

Good writeups!!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Not arguing, but Tex A&M didnt cover @ Colorado or their other road/neutral game vs Arkansas....They have put up 20 total points in those 2 games...

Good writeups!!
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I'm just talking true road games in the opponent's home stadium. Both of those games were neutral. (Colorado was in Denver)
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Minnesota +4.5 v Nebraska: I'll be the first one to tell you that Nebraska does NOT deserve the fate that they've found themselves in this year. They've actually played pretty well, especially in the past few weeks, and they had yet another heartbreaking loss last week at home against Michigan after fighting back from a double digit deficit, only to lose like they've come accustomed to under Frost. That's just what they do. They find ways to lose games, either be a crushing turnover, or by a terrible special teams play...whatever. You name it, Nebraska has probably lost because of it during Frost's tenure. Now they have to get up off the mat after that excruciating loss last week and travel to Minneapolis and not only win, but cover a not inconsequential spread of 4 1/2. Since Frost has been in Lincoln, they have gone 3-12 straight up in their Big Ten road games, so this spread is assuming they'll do something that they seldom do, especially against PJ Fleck, who in the last two times in Minneapolis has pounded the Huskers 54-21 and 34-7 and last year won outright in Lincoln as a 9 point dog. Also, the Gophers are by no means overmatched on paper in this game, as it's a virtual toss up when you match the units up against each other. If I'm getting 4.5 points and the home field in a toss up game, I like my chances. This is especially true when my coach has pretty much owned the matchup and the favorite constantly finds ways to lose.
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You know what? Nebraska played pretty well in Frost’s first game as HC. Well enough to convince me to make a halftime bet on the Huskers, which lost. So did the Huskers.

Nebraska has some impressive stats, but you summed it up perfectly. Frost’s team constantly finds a way to lose.

I was leaning this way, and your opinion may seal the deal for me
 
4. Kent +7 @Western Michigan: Although the Broncos had a great performance a few weeks back in their upset of Pitt, they really haven't proven themselves worthy of being this much of a favorite against a comparable conference foe like Kent. Ultimately, these teams are very similar, but Kent has played a schedule of tougher defenses, most notably characterized by Iowa and Texas A&M. Despite facing tough defenses, Kent ranks 58th in yards per pass attempt, and hey are coming off a 633 yard offensive performance against what used to be a solid defensive team in Buffalo. Both teams are weak on defense, but WMU is poor against the run and the pass (119th) while Kent is actually pretty strong against the pass (41st) despite having Pitt and Michigan on the schedule. Dustin Crum was the preseason all MAC QB, and he's rounding into shape now. In my opinion WMU isn't trustworthy as a sizable favorite, especially against a team like Kent that can move the ball effectively. With all the money line dogs cashing in the MAC in recent weeks, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Kent added to that trend this week.
 
5. @North Carolina -7 v Miami(-115): I don't know if I'm a glutton for punishment, but I'm going to make another run at wagering on a North Carolina game. I've bet on them and against them and lost in both cases, so my intention was to just forget about it when the Heels were involved, but now that they are only a 7 point favorite at home, I'm gonna give it one more chance. Last year and early this year, the Tar Heels were a different team depending on whether or not they were at home. They've played like dogshit two out of the last three weeks, and that includes last week when they lost (at home) as a 17 point favorite to Florida State. I didn't lay the points in that game because the game didn't look at all like a mismatch on paper, which is not the case this week. Miami looks completely over matched here, and that's not surprising because the Cane defense turned in what might have been the worst performance in a decade in their game against that Heels offense last year. Manny Diaz's boys gave up 778 yards in that game, a staggering number. Can Manny and company possibly right the ship to compete this year? Well, considering that the Canes actually looked like a pretty good defense in the weeks prior to that matchup, what should be our expectation when they have to tee it up in the Heels comfort zone off a terrible loss? Oh, and by the way, Miami is mediocre at best coming in this year, ranking no better than 65th in any defensive category and checking in as the 119th best defense on 3rd down. Oh, and by the way, their offense can't run, throw it, convert 3rd downs or protect the passer with any regularity and D'Eriq King is now out for the year. Frankly, if UNC even vaguely resembles the offense they are capable of being, Miami will have all kinds of trouble even thinking about keeping pace.
 
6. BYU +5.5 @ Baylor: BYU was undefeated and looking like a longshot contender for a playoff spot prior to their game with Boise last week, but that all went by the wayside when they lost outright to Boise. It wasn't all that surprising, considering Boise's stellar record as a road dog, but just about everything went wrong for the Cougars after they had previously had just about everything go right for them as they navigated their hot start. Now they actually find themselves in their best role: One the road, and as a road underdog to be specific, just like Boise was in last week against them. Since Kalani Sitake got there in 2016, BYU is 10-2 as a road dog, and they'll settle into that role this week at Baylor. The Bears have been great to me this year, but my wins with them have been as either a home dog or a very short favorite. Former BYU OC Jeff Grimes is in that role with the Bears now, but I don't put a lot of stock in tat because both sides know each other well. Off that loss last week, BYU will be playing ferociously hard. I just think this situation sets up for the Cougars to turn in a top performance when people don't expect it. My guess is you'll see the BYU that beat 3 Pac 12 teams, not the one you saw last week. I like Baylor, but I think they are just as likely to produce a less than stellar effort this week.
 
7. Purdue +11.5 @ Iowa: Here's another team that finds themselves in their most comfortable role. Since Jeff Brohm showed up, Purdue is 10-3 in the road dog role, and you won't find a better spot for the Boilers, having been off last week and watching Iowa exert maximum effort in the comeback against Penn State, and win so emotional the fans flooded the field after the game. Now they have to get up for a Purdue team that has underachieved offensively, but certainly hasn't underachieved defensively. The Boilers ranks 28th in overall yards per play, 22nd against the pass and 24th on 3rd down. Despite the late game heroics last week, the Hawkeyes remain mostly inept on offense under QB Spencer Petras. Although Tyler Goodson seems like a swell guy, their rushing offense still ranks 106th and we all know the kinds of issues Petras has had. I think Purdue will be able to muck up the game, much like Colorado State did to the Hawkeyes a few weeks ago. The difference is that Purdue has a useful passing game with All Big Ten receiver David Bell among other weapons. Their defense ultimately should keep them in this game.
 
Gotta love sparty at that number! Good move getting early, I lost a few games I would have won last week if I would have got out in front of the move. Normally I would just pass on one like Gtech last week who went from -2.5 to -4.5, but I loved tech so much and didn’t love much on the card so I played anyways, of course Gtech ends up winning by 4 and crushing me!! Honestly I didn’t expect game to be so close but shoulda had a winner none the less!
 
blowoutgm said:
This line stinks to high heaven.........................almost want to take Indiana because of the weird line but I'm not that kind of better. Sparty should beat them by 10 plus in my opinion.
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I never understood the contrarian just for sake of being contrarian bettors. Don’t get me wrong I rather be on the unpopular side of a weird looking line but I have to be able to justify it! Those are my favorite plays when I can, I sure the heck don’t see it here tho! Could be sparty just continues to be undervalued, we always get a few teams like that who continually out perform the lines being set!
 
EL CAPO said:
rutgers was the supposively sharp action last week. Now it's indiana. When will they give sparty respect ? I have sparty as a top 10 team. kenneth walker definately in the heisman mix
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Have these teams every year that just continually out perform expectations. I have a hard time calling sparty a legit top 10 team but they certainly better than oddsmakers giving them credit for. I thought Rutgers would be able to muck the game up last week but was jist a pass for me. Didnt sparty have several 90 yard tds? Walker been awesome, could Be abothef year for non qb as none standing out. Problem for him is I think sparty ends up with 2 losses. If we going with a guy on a team not in playoff contention (maybe sparty is, I just don’t think they will be in the end), it be tough for me to take him over Bijan Robinson who is a man among boys!!! Walker been fantastic tho, no doubt.
 
2daBank said:
Gotta love sparty at that number! Good move getting early, I lost a few games I would have won last week if I would have got out in front of the move. Normally I would just pass on one like Gtech last week who went from -2.5 to -4.5, but I loved tech so much and didn’t love much on the card so I played anyways, of course Gtech ends up winning by 4 and crushing me!! Honestly I didn’t expect game to be so close but shoulda had a winner none the less!
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Seriously, who do you know that is actually on Indiana (other than me and I bet it at a bad number)?

Locktober on MSU I guess
 
KJ said:
Seriously, who do you know that is actually on Indiana (other than me and I bet it at a bad number)?

Locktober on MSU I guess
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I didn’t know you were, lol. I havnt been around forum world or talked to many my friends bout the card this week. Needed a little time away to clear the noggin! Lol. There were def ppl on Rutgers last week, like I said I Havnt been around much this week so dunno if there any Hoosiers love? I’d bet SVP all over Indy! He loves plays like that. Could definitely be a game where getting the early numbers pays off for sparty backers. I sure couldn’t touch Hoosiers, I do think there gomna be some ppl selling sparty but most likely waiting to play Hoosiers till last minute.
 
2daBank said:
I didn’t know you were, lol. I havnt been around forum world or talked to many my friends bout the card this week. Needed a little time away to clear the noggin! Lol. There were def ppl on Rutgers last week, like I said I Havnt been around much this week so dunno if there any Hoosiers love? I’d bet SVP all over Indy! He loves plays like that. Could definitely be a game where getting the early numbers pays off for sparty backers. I sure couldn’t touch Hoosiers, I do think there gomna be some ppl selling sparty but most likely waiting to play Hoosiers till last minute.
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Wasn't my point. I don't know of people in my life, on forums, on ESPN or whatever who don't think MSU win by DD

I seriously haven't heard one person make a case for the Hoosiers and I expect their best effort of the year against a team that is good, not great, at home

The amount of tossing IU to the weeds is corny for me

They've been a lot more competitive than their record suggests and maybe the QB change was a blessing. MSU seems the perfect team for them to get their "big" win
 
8. Kentucky +22 @Georgia: This may seem silly to fade Georgia,(and as I write this, I wholeheartedly believe it), but in my opinion, Kentucky os too legitimate of a team to be getting this many points. I'm a believer in Kentucky. They are completely versatile on both sides of the ball. Offensively, their running game is extremely (5th in yards per carry) and Will Levis has been able to throw it effectively as well. They are good on third down on both offense and defense, they stop the run, the stop the pass...basically they are pretty good at everything. I also realize that Georgia looks invincible, but every great team has a clunker week, and as good as Georgia has looked, they are overdue for one. If Kentucky's defense makes things rough on Stetson Bennett(and they are the best defense UGA has played this year) or they can get their ground game going, it might be really difficult to cover a line so high.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Kentucky +22 @Georgia: This may seem silly to fade Georgia,(and as I write this, I wholeheartedly believe it), but in my opinion, Kentucky os too legitimate of a team to be getting this many points. I'm a believer in Kentucky. They are completely versatile on both sides of the ball. Offensively, their running game is extremely (5th in yards per carry) and Will Levis has been able to throw it effectively as well. They are good on third down on both offense and defense, they stop the run, the stop the pass...basically they are pretty good at everything. I also realize that Georgia looks invincible, but every great team has a clunker week, and as good as Georgia has looked, they are overdue for one. If Kentucky's defense makes things rough on Stetson Bennett(and they are the best defense UGA has played this year) or they can get their ground game going, it might be really difficult to cover a line so high.
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I hear ya snd this was kinda my initial lean also, but then again I thought Arky was a legit solid team too and that game was over in 5 freaking minutes! Lol. I mostly been betting team total unders on Uga opponents which been great but last i saw these sneaky bastards were hanging a 9.5 for uk, I woulda prob played under 10.5 but not touching it if 10 beats me! Lol.

I do think Uk defense could conceivably keep them in it for awhile but I have no faith they be able to run on dawgs.
 
KJ said:
Wasn't my point. I don't know of people in my life, on forums, on ESPN or whatever who don't think MSU win by DD

I seriously haven't heard one person make a case for the Hoosiers and I expect their best effort of the year against a team that is good, not great, at home

The amount of tossing IU to the weeds is corny for me

They've been a lot more competitive than their record suggests and maybe the QB change was a blessing. MSU seems the perfect team for them to get their "big" win
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I’d worry bout the big 10 prob loving the idea of sparty vs Michigan both undefeated. Not that refs ever cheat (rolling eyes)!!
 
2daBank said:
I’d worry bout the big 10 prob loving the idea of sparty vs Michigan both undefeated. Not that refs ever cheat (rolling eyes)!!
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Then make the spread 7.5-9 lol

That's silly. Indy certainly don't suck and MSU certainly is a team than could let Indy beat them. They're ok but the Walker love is straight out of a fan box
 
KJ said:
Then make the spread 7.5-9 lol

That's silly. Indy certainly don't suck and MSU certainly is a team than could let Indy beat them. They're ok but the Walker love is straight out of a fan box
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I realize you been waiting for sparty bubble to burst since week 1. Maybe it will, really don’t think you getting enough to play Indy, 7.5-9 would be cool, but that would make them damn near 2 tds at home, that obviously too much. Im not playing either one of them.
 
2daBank said:
I realize you been waiting for sparty bubble to burst since week 1. Maybe it will, really don’t think you getting enough to play Indy, 7.5-9 would be cool, but that would make them damn near 2 tds at home, that obviously too much. Im not playing either one of them.
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Perfect point. Why did books open it at 3? Just stupid unlikd 99% of the world?
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Minnesota +4.5 v Nebraska: I'll be the first one to tell you that Nebraska does NOT deserve the fate that they've found themselves in this year. They've actually played pretty well, especially in the past few weeks, and they had yet another heartbreaking loss last week at home against Michigan after fighting back from a double digit deficit, only to lose like they've come accustomed to under Frost. That's just what they do. They find ways to lose games, either be a crushing turnover, or by a terrible special teams play...whatever. You name it, Nebraska has probably lost because of it during Frost's tenure. Now they have to get up off the mat after that excruciating loss last week and travel to Minneapolis and not only win, but cover a not inconsequential spread of 4 1/2. Since Frost has been in Lincoln, they have gone 3-12 straight up in their Big Ten road games, so this spread is assuming they'll do something that they seldom do, especially against PJ Fleck, who in the last two times in Minneapolis has pounded the Huskers 54-21 and 34-7 and last year won outright in Lincoln as a 9 point dog. Also, the Gophers are by no means overmatched on paper in this game, as it's a virtual toss up when you match the units up against each other. If I'm getting 4.5 points and the home field in a toss up game, I like my chances. This is especially true when my coach has pretty much owned the matchup and the favorite constantly finds ways to lose.
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This seems like a really solid play.
 
9. Liberty -32.5 @LA Monroe I really hate doing this. Laying more than around 17-18 points is one of my least favorite bets to make, but this is such a mismatch on paper and in all the different ways I look at a game that I can't in good conscious fail to recommend it. First of all in this current Liberty "era" with Hugh Freeze at the helm and Malik Willis playing QB, Liberty is 22-8 ATS in all lined games. So basically, if you are strictly a trend player, you would just play Liberty every week, regardless of situation. Also, La Monroe, over that same time period is 8-18-1 ATS in all of their lined games. So again, if you were a trends player, you would fade La Monroe every week. From a fundamental standpoint, there is not an area when these teams match up, unit for unit, where it's even close to a fair fight. The BEST matchup that La Monroe has in this game is their run defense against Liberty's rush offense, and that's Liberty's rush offense is ranked 46th in yards per attempt and LA Monroe's rush defense is 106th. So Liberty will run all over them, but that's the area they'll struggle the most. To sum it up, Liberty should be able to name the score in this one, and the overwhelming likelihood in this game is that Liberty will cover and La Monroe will not, because that's what both of these programs do.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Liberty -32.5 @LA Monroe I really hate doing this. Laying more than around 17-18 points is one of my least favorite bets to make, but this is such a mismatch on paper and in all the different ways I look at a game that I can't in good conscious fail to recommend it. First of all in this current Liberty "era" with Hugh Freeze at the helm and Malik Willis playing QB, Liberty is 22-8 ATS in all lined games. So basically, if you are strictly a trend player, you would just play Liberty every week, regardless of situation. Also, La Monroe, over that same time period is 8-18-1 ATS in all of their lined games. So again, if you were a trends player, you would fade La Monroe every week. From a fundamental standpoint, there is not an area when these teams match up, unit for unit, where it's even close to a fair fight. The BEST matchup that La Monroe has in this game is their run defense against Liberty's rush offense, and that's Liberty's rush offense is ranked 46th in yards per attempt and LA Monroe's rush defense is 106th. So Liberty will run all over them, but that's the area they'll struggle the most. To sum it up, Liberty should be able to name the score in this one, and the overwhelming likelihood in this game is that Liberty will cover and La Monroe will not, because that's what both of these programs do.
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Like the big spreads when the other team can’t defend the run!
 
10. @Boston College +3 v NC State: There really isn't much of a difference between these teams on paper...both offenses aren't great both defenses are pretty good, with NC State probably sporting a slightly better unit. It's really close to a dead heat when you match these individual units up against each other. However, BC just finds a way to win at home, and if they don't win, they cover. 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog, 24-10 ATS since 2017 in conference games, 6-2 at home under Hafley, etc. On the flip side, although NC State is a pretty solid program, they just don't do well when it comes to enjoying prosperity. They jumped into the polls last week after beating Clemson a couple of weeks ago and immediately failed to cover against La Tech, which is nothing new for them. Since 2017, they are 2-7-1 ATS when ranked, and they've dropped the last 7 in a row. They're also 3-7-1 ATS as a road favorite and BC has covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. It's another situation where one team is in their comfort zone, and the other isn't. Any time BC is a dog at home in conference I'm interested, but I'm especially interested when it's against a team that struggles in the opposite role.
 
11. Air Force +3.5 (-117) @ Boise State: I almost passed on this one as the line value has completely vanished (I actually grabbed 6 Sunday night), but I think Air Force is the better team and will probably win outright so I'm going to put it up here anyway. Boise is coming off a great win last week, having beat a BYU team in Provo that was undefeated. That game was yet another reminder that teams playing in comfortable roles are extremely hard to beat. Boise State has a form of pixie dust that they sprinkle on home favorites because they almost never fail to cover in that role, and BYU is not a good favorite Voila!! Boise wins outright. However, this Boise team is good at really only one thing, and that's throwing the ball with either Bachmeier or Sears. They can't run the ball and they've struggled defensively in just about every area. Boise has given up yards both in the run game and the passing game, and Air Force is obviously well equipped to churn out yards on the ground.. Boise is also very weak on 3rd down, which is another of Air Force's fortes. Ultimately I don't see much of a chance that Boise will be able to get the Falcons off the field, and that will limit the amount of time their defense will have to defend that passing game. Even f they do, AF is 17th in the country in yards per pass attempt, but having said that, they haven't faced many strong passing attacks. I hate this matchup for Boise's defense, so I'll take the shrinking number of points.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Boston College +3 v NC State: There really isn't much of a difference between these teams on paper...both offenses aren't great both defenses are pretty good, with NC State probably sporting a slightly better unit. It's really close to a dead heat when you match these individual units up against each other. However, BC just finds a way to win at home, and if they don't win, they cover. 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog, 24-10 ATS since 2017 in conference games, 6-2 at home under Hafley, etc. On the flip side, although NC State is a pretty solid program, they just don't do well when it comes to enjoying prosperity. They jumped into the polls last week after beating Clemson a couple of weeks ago and immediately failed to cover against La Tech, which is nothing new for them. Since 2017, they are 2-7-1 ATS when ranked, and they've dropped the last 7 in a row. They're also 3-7-1 ATS as a road favorite and BC has covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. It's another situation where one team is in their comfort zone, and the other isn't. Any time BC is a dog at home in conference I'm interested, but I'm especially interested when it's against a team that struggles in the opposite role.
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Love this one too. As you said, BC just finds ways to win or cover at home.
 
12. Arizona State +1 @Utah: I have a ton of respect for the Utes, and they came up huge for me last week at USC, but I'm going the other way this week. When you match up these 2 teams unit by unit, ASU is actually quite a bit better in just about every category, which was surprising for me. Offensively, ASU has been one of the best offensive teams in the country, and it doesn't matter if they run or pass, but they obviously prefer to run the ball, and that's a bit of an Achilles heel for the Utes, as they rank only 58th in the country against the run. Washington State, USC and BYU all ran very effectively on the Utes, and none of them have are as good as ASU on the ground. Also, although Cam Rising had a nice game against that creampuff USC pass defense, I think he'll have a rough time this week moving the ball through the air, mostly because ASU puts pressure on the quarterback and his progressions will have to speed up. Throw in the fact that SU is now a dog, so they have that chip to draw motivation from, and it works for them as they've gone 9-3-1 in the road dog role since 2017 under Herm. There's a lot pointing to the Sun Devils in this one.
 
I noticed that Ole Miss/Tennessee is now a pick 'em. I previously did not want to lay much with Ole Miss in that one because on paper the Vols look like they can really compete, but it seems to me they might not be ready to win a game like this. I'm gonna be content just to watch that one, but I wanted to point out that observation.
 
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