Week 7 Rebound...Detail Analysis


One of trus baby mommas
Week 4: 8-4
Week 5: 6-1
Week 6: 6-10
Total: 20-15

As you guys can see, I got hammered last week and I guess it was just one of those weeks I had coming to me. Any and everything that could go wrong, did..This week I am going to be very selective with my picks, hopefully this week resembles week 5 and not week 6.

Alright lets start this off with the play I have locked in already:

Pitt - 10 @ Cent Florida: Pitt has the advantage in every category. Palko is hot right now, 70% completion and 15/3 TD to Interception ratio. This is the 2nd road game for Pitt however, they come into this game after a 10point win in Syracuse. Pitt is 4-1 against the spread, Central Florida is 2-2 vs. the spread. Central Florida had its hands full last week in that game with Marshall, they have a few more days than Pitt to rest for this game but I do not think it will be enough for them. Looking for a 34-17 type score.

Hawaii -5 @ Fresno St - I know this might be a minority opinion, but I actually feel good about this spread under 6. What do we know coming into this game? We know that Hawaii is going to score points but their defense is also going to give up a bunch of yards. We know that the last 2 weeks, Fresno has fallen off the globe. We know that besides their claim to fame against USC last yr, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. IMO, a team who just got beat by Utah St, ( there is no excuse for this whatsoever, NONE). To be shutout at half by Utah St means that Hawaii would be up by 28 if you gave the same effort. I do not expect the same lousy effort that this team has shown the last 2 weeks, however this is not a light switch that you just flick on and off either. They will score more than 13 points this game but there is no stopping this Hawaii offense from scoring. I know that many are worried about Hawaii's traveling and becoming a different team however look at thier away games this season. They lost to a very good Boise St team on the smurf Turf 41-34 and they lost to Bama opening week. Again, as seen by my last two picks, I am riding with good QB's this week. Brennan is 71% completion with 18/5 TD to Int ratio. Yes Fresno will get Williams back this week, but is one man going to change the nose dive this team has taken? I am banking on not happening.. Fresno Qb is stuggling, the team as a whole is struggling, and this is a bad position for them to be in however, I am betting that they continue their freefall.

Cal -8.5 @ Washington St - Even if Lynch is out, he is day to day with an ancle injury, this team is CLICKING. The line may get to 7 (It opened at 9.5 and continues to fall), the number I am waiting for because people saw that Wash St played USC tough. Forsett is no ordinary backup, in fact hes more than capable of taking the ball in this offense. Jackson is emerging as 1 hell of threat at Punt Returner and WR, Longshore has done nothing but keep the offense moving. He is now at 17/5 TD to interception ratio, which is pretty damn good, even after that first week nightmare. Common Opponent is Oregon St. Cal murdered them 41-13 while Wash St fought with them till the end in a 13-6 game. I was high on this team before the season and that Tennessee game put alot of smoke around this team. I said it last week that Cal would be the team to take USC down, this week I am standing by that statement with full confidence... Cal continues to roll in this one, 37-13.

I am watching the lines closely on the following games:

Cinci +26 @ Louisville (looking for 28+)
Arizona St +19 @ USC (looking for 21+)
Florida +2 @ Auburn ( might have to play this because I feel a line shift)
Clemson -24.5 1st Half (temple beat me the last two weeks, 3rd time a charm???)
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I like Hawaii because Hawaiiguy is on them big, too.

Dude, a bunch of us got clobbered this last weekend. Here's hoping we are more successful this week.
everythingthatsgreen - Liking your card alot bro. With you on Cal -7, and leaning heavily to Pittsburgh -10.

Tempted quite a bit by ASU and all those points, but their defensive play lately scares me. Best of luck this week. :cheers:
Excellent analysis on the card. I am sure you will get back to your previous form of weeks 4 and 5.

Still waiting on this Cal line but I think it is a def. play.. Still being real picky about my other plays as well..

Guys, me and my roommates (all 21) will be in Las Vegas next Thurs- Sun staying at the Luxor.. Suggestion for a bunch of kids who want to have a lot of fun? Which sportsbook should I rape on Saturday as well :cheers:
Turns out that Cal is going back up now, locked in @ 8.5, little higher than I want but what ya gonna do..

As far as games im still eyeing up..

Cinci +26.5 @ Louisville - Hear Brohm may play a little bit, This game is in Poppa John stadium as well but for some reason I keep thinking this Cinci team is good for a cover. I wont play it unless I can get 28 but it was worth a look.
Arizona St +18.5 - 19 @ USC (looking for 21+) - I want to know if USC can blow anyone out just like everyone else, especially without your money receivers in Jarrett and Smith.. I guess everyone else is thinking the same so this line prob will never reach 21 and I am not sure I can place my money on such a shitty defense..
Florida +1 @ Auburn - Can see this game moving to -1, -2 by game time. I think UF is the superior team no doubt. Tebow is a hell of an x-factor. Auburn, show me you can do something other than set up a screen or run the ball..
Clemson -24.5 1st Half - I wouldn't have a second thought about this game if those damn Owls didnt whoop my ass the last 2 weeks.. A little further investigation shows...

Clemson was up 24 at half vs. FlorAtlantic
Clemson was up 35 at half vs. North Carolina
Clemson was up 31 at half vs. Lou Tech

Temple was down 42 at half vs. Louisville
Temple was down 45 at half vs. Minnesota
Temple was down 17 at half vs. Western Michigan
Temple was down 17 at half vs. Vandy

I am still stuck on what to do about this, considering Clemson has two WR out now but I know for damn sure if they want to, they can run James Davis right and CJ Spiller left for 42 points at half..
everythingthatsgreen - I think you'll be OK with Cal -8.5. I could be totally full of shit, but I think this line could get back up to 9.5 or even 10 by gametime.

San Jose St -14: See San Jose thread..

Plays I am still considering:

Iowa -10 first half
Ohio St -14.5
Texas T -7
Rutgers +1.5 or ML

Bump on that Vegas question as well! :cheers:
everythingthatsgreen - I have about 10 relatives that live in Vegas. It's my yearly Thanksgiving spot.

Two places I suggest you check out while you are there...

MGM Grand - Studio 54

Wynn Hotel & Casino - Club Tryst

If you and the guys are looking for a good strip joint to see hot chicks, check out Saffire's. Have fun bro! :cheers:
Aztech, nice headsup on Vegas, this is the first time for all of us, damn I am pretty excited!! :wacka wacka:

Ok guys, My Sweet 7 for the wkend

Pitt -10 (See the line at going above 10 as we get closer, I know its at 10.5 right now)
Hawaii -5 (Line is holding steady at 4, no worries, Hawaii is still the play imo)
Cal -8.5 (can see this being 10 or so by gametime, still wish I had it at 7 but whatever)
SJSU -14 (this line climbed fast today. Seeing it at 16 all over the place)
OSU -14.5 (thought this was a low line for a team who has packed it in, lost their top rb, qb is banged up, and wr is out but obviously I am one of the only ones who thinks this because the line is dropping still!)
Texas T -7 (shoutout to Mistaflava on this one, your writeup along with some other people really convinced me here)
Iowa -10 first half - They have been kind to me on first half plays, looking for them to jump out the gate..
everythingthatsgreen said:
Aztech, nice headsup on Vegas, this is the first time for all of us, damn I am pretty excited!! :wacka wacka:

Ok guys, My Sweet 7 for the wkend

Pitt -10 (WIN)
Hawaii -5 (WIN)
Cal -8.5 (WIN)
OSU -14.5 (WIN)
Texas T -7 (LOSS)
Iowa -10 first half - (LOSS)

4-3 for the week. Can't complain when you come out ontop for the wk however I am a little pissed at myself for not having balls on a few plays I liked but talked myself out of...Last week damaged my confidence a little bit.. Anyway, Some good matchups coming up in wk8, ready for those lines!