Week #7 of CFB (10/7-10/11)

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
'08 YTD: 42-39-4, +.4175

Well it took a very nice Saturday to make up for a crap start last week with the midweek games. Was in a hole after USF and Utah, but went 10-4 on the weekend. And if a couple idiots could make their FGs...ASU with a 35 yarder in the 4th Q, and just 1 of 3 (not 0 for 3) in Colorado...and it woulda been a 12-2 Saturday instead. Nevertheless...was spot on with many of the weekend games, which felt good. USC rebounded as expected...Mizzou blew out the Cornholers as expected...Illy upset UM...GT exposed Duke...FSU held on over Miami...took a while, but Scary put away Ole Miss...Iowa covered nicely in the 4th...UNC exposed UConn...tOSU beat the band-less Badgers...and my Bruins covered a huge spread. So all in all, it was a good day of football...despite those 2 kickers.
Anyways, on to week seven.


Tues. 10/7

- no play/shit game -

Thurs. 10/9

Wake Forest (-2.5) over Clemson (-110) for 1 unit W

Fri. 10/10

- no play yet/if any -

Sat. 10/11

Texas (+7) over Oklahoma (-110) for 1 unit W

S Carolina (+1) over Kentucky (-110) for 1 unit W

Wisconsin (+4.5) over Penn St (-110) for 1.5 units L

Texas Tech (-20) over Nebraska (-110) for 1.5 units L

Northwestern (+2) over Michigan St (-110) for 1 unit L

W Michigan (+1.5) over Buffalo (-110) for 1 unit W

Florida (-6) over LSU (-110) for 1 unit W

Mississippi St (+3) over Vanderbilt (-110) for 1 unit W

Miami (-17) over Central Florida (-110) for 1 unit L

Texas A&M (+3) over Kansas St (-110) for 1 unit L

NMST/Nevada over 67.5 (-110) for 1 unit W

Stanford (+7) over Arizona (-110) for 1 unit W

Notre Dame (+9) over N Carolina (-110) for 1 unit W


More to come over the remainder of the week. Still have lots of work to do going over the card, crunching #s, getting my info together, etc. But hopefully some of these inflated lines will come back to me a bit over the next few days...as there were quite a few leans that i had coming into the week, where the line was just set too freakin' high by the time i had a chance to get it.

Anyhow, GL this week. I'll be back with more. :tiphat:
 
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interested to hear your thoughts on wisky...thinking PSU pretty big myself.
 
This is from my week six thread, looking ahead to this week. I'll add in some notes on each matchup/lean in bold.


forgot one thing...my (very) early week 7 leans.

Wake over Clemson
(was hoping for a pickem at worst, but played it anyway.)
Texas over Okie
(played it @ +7. steers & queers.)
Scary over Tucky
(played it @ +1, cuz i'm not gonna get +3 here.)
Mizzou over Okie Lite
(was ready to play it @ anything below 10. 13 to 14 though is making me think twice. might have to lay off the game, as it stands now...or look at the total.)
UGA over Tenny
(i'm ok, but not thrilled, with the line. waiting cuz i think this has a good chance of coming down over the course of the week.)
USC over ASU
(woulda hit anything at 20.5 or below right away, but 25 is a bit too high for me. usc has nothing to look ahead to. asu isn't that good. told bar all about it the other nite, having watched the cal game. cal moved the ball at will in the 1st half. cal also got to Carpenter whenever they wanted to...whenever they chose to send an extra man. bottom line...cal relaxed in the 2nd, and asu was lucky to even stay close...but cal was dictating the entire game.)
UNC over ND
(waiting for the domer homers to drive this below 7 pts. unfortunately they're not gonna drive it all the way to the 3 that i woulda wished for, lol.)
TT over Nebraska
(jeebus...i know the cornholers looked bad, but 21 pts is a lot to lay...even if {imo} TT can name the score here. would bite if it came back to 17, but that's not gonna happen.)
Wisky over PSU
(played it @ +4.5...will either stand pat...or if by chance it climbs to a magic #, hit it again.)

of course it'll all depend on the lines, etc.

and i'll prolly just be watching/enjoying my favorite game of next weekend, lsu @ florida.
(must admit that i'll be looking at this game closely, and may make a play at some point. the lv opener was florida -6...yet it was -4 by the time it got to us...and has held right there.)


'an_horse'
 
I think UF gets bet down personally..and I love Florida this week...huge revenge game...last year was the game were les boy got like 5 4th down conversions and stole the game from them if I remember correctly.

You know I hate betting shit teams bro, but Northwestern is in a perfect spot this week, coming off a bye and MSU has OSU on deck. NW ALWAYS gives MSU fits. They sleepwalked thru the first 5 games of year and are still 5-0. MSU won't have an answer for Bacher and Sutton..
 
nawlins51 said:
GL Yanks.Liking that Wake pick myself
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Cool deal, Nawlins. Good 2 hear. :shake:


HUNTDOG said:
interested to hear your thoughts on wisky...thinking PSU pretty big myself.
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Bottom line...i'm not sold on PSU. I've had 2 games circled as losses for them all year...at Wisky, in b2b road games, and at Ohio St...2 weeks further down the road.
PSU has pretty much played jack for competition this year, except for Illy...which is why they've looked so great up to now.
Coastal Carolina, Syracuse, and Temple are nothing to write home about. We all know how Oregon St is with these eastern road trips...like when they went to Cincy last year. Illy had a fair amount of success against them, at least for the majority of the game. And they weren't impressive at all in their 1st real road game, against a soft Purdue squad...that had just been schooled by the irish the past week.
Anyways, we'll see what PSU is really made of (one way or the other) with these 2 big road games in October...at Wisky this week, and at Ohio St the 25th. But fwiw, PSU had 2 b2b roadies last year...losing the back end of both of those to Illy and MSU respectively.
I know i'm glossing over things, as i jump around, but it is what it is late on a sunday nite. Wisky's got the revenge angle...the whole night game at camp randall bs...and historically, PSU does not have much success there at all.
Now Wisky hasn't looked all the great either...losing 2 in a row, after barely escaping fresno...with the 2nd half choke job @ michigan, then at home to the buckeyes & pryor. that said...they're in the midst of a 4 game home stand. They have the defense to stay with PSU...contain PSUs offense...and i think they'll have a lot of success on the ground against PSU as well. Wisky's got a lot of experience on both sides of the ball...and their o-line should be able to control the line. If so, they'll win outright. But regardless, like with tOSU, it'll be a FG game either way...unless, that is, i'm right about the trenches..then it'll be the badgers by 7 pts imo.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I think UF gets bet down personally..and I love Florida this week...huge revenge game...last year was the game were les boy got like 5 4th down conversions and stole the game from them if I remember correctly.

You know I hate betting shit teams bro, but Northwestern is in a perfect spot this week, coming off a bye and MSU has OSU on deck. NW ALWAYS gives MSU fits. They sleepwalked thru the first 5 games of year and are still 5-0. MSU won't have an answer for Bacher and Sutton..
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i'll definitely take a look at that. thx, bro. :shake:

yeah...was telling bar that urban is becoming my fav HC...always playing with the spread/line in mind. this past week was another classic example.

its an interesting spot though. lsu off a bye...gators going into a bye. gators definitely got revenge...but les is good at stealing games (like auburn a couple weeks ago).

hard to figure. lsu not a good offense...but florida just lost to ole miss.

anyways, i'm interested...and just gonna watch & see what happens this week to the line.
 
You considering the Bruins this week? +17 to Oregon, with third string qb, a run dominated team. This is not a Zona BYU passing spread team. I think for a matchup that plays to UCLA's hands, +17 is an awful lot of points. Not impressed with this Duck team dating back to what I saw from Purdue.
 
O-State said:
You considering the Bruins this week? +17 to Oregon, with third string qb, a run dominated team. This is not a Zona BYU passing spread team. I think for a matchup that plays to UCLA's hands, +17 is an awful lot of points. Not impressed with this Duck team dating back to what I saw from Purdue.
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yanks doesn't like this game. ;)
but he'll be back later to discuss it further.


yanks added some plays from the office today as well. he'll update things later tonight, i'm sure.


Northwestern (+2) @ (-110) for 1
W Michigan (+1.5) @ (-110) for 1
Florida (-6) @ (-110) for 1
Messy St (+3) @ (-110) for 1
Miami (-17) @ (-110) for 1
A&M (+3) @ (-110) for 1


good luck 'an_horse'
 
HUNTDOG said:
I think UF gets bet down personally..and I love Florida this week...huge revenge game...last year was the game were les boy got like 5 4th down conversions and stole the game from them if I remember correctly.

You know I hate betting shit teams bro, but Northwestern is in a perfect spot this week, coming off a bye and MSU has OSU on deck. NW ALWAYS gives MSU fits. They sleepwalked thru the first 5 games of year and are still 5-0. MSU won't have an answer for Bacher and Sutton..
Click to expand...


added both...even though the Gators are getting bet up...by a smaller percentage than is on lsu.

:shake:
 
Administrator said:
yanks added some plays from the office today as well. he'll update things later tonight, i'm sure.


Northwestern (+2) @ (-110) for 1
W Michigan (+1.5) @ (-110) for 1
Florida (-6) @ (-110) for 1
Messy St (+3) @ (-110) for 1
Miami (-17) @ (-110) for 1
A&M (+3) @ (-110) for 1


good luck 'an_horse'
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uno mas...

Texas Tech (-20) @ (-110) for 1.5 units

line came down just enough. ;)
seriously, everyone was high on the cornholers. then came some real games against vatech and mizzou. now, freakin 6 weeks in, comes their first road game. that cornholer defense is gonna be road kill i this one.

more later on all these adds from today.:tiphat:
 
good shit bro..hoping the line goes back down for UF and back up for NW lol.

Penn State/Wisky...I dunno, I still think PSU is top 3 in the country...but I definitely see your points...just my opinion wisky is cooked....last two losses can't be anymore devastating ways to lose, gotta kill a team's morale.
 
HUNTDOG said:
good shit bro..hoping the line goes back down for UF and back up for NW lol.

Penn State/Wisky...I dunno, I still think PSU is top 3 in the country...but I definitely see your points...just my opinion wisky is cooked....last two losses can't be anymore devastating ways to lose, gotta kill a team's morale.
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i know. i jumped on both of those cuz i was afraid i'd lose the line completely.

and i hear ya about psu/wisky. i could easily be dead wrong. hope i'm not though, lol.
 
vegaskyle said:
i think tamu is the side too .. gl as always yanks
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ty, sir :shake:

that could be my "tru play" of the week, lol. seriously though, freeman's great...but until kst stops somebody from moving the ball at will on their defense, they don't deserve to be road chalk.
 
B.A.R. said:
Tamu, NW, Miami FL all on my radar right now as well.
Click to expand...

think huntster was right on when he pointed me in NW's direction in a post above. :shake:

also saw (elsewhere) that Miami was steele's big play this week. liked a few of steele's picks this week...really don't like the other few...based on what i saw that was posted.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
ty, sir :shake:

that could be my "tru play" of the week, lol. seriously though, freeman's great...but until kst stops somebody from moving the ball at will on their defense, they don't deserve to be road chalk.
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Just think kstate runs the type of offense that tamu can defend. and like you say .. they cant stop anyone to deserve laying road chalk in conference on the greatest named field in college football.
 
vegaskyle said:
Just think kstate runs the type of offense that tamu can defend. and like you say .. they cant stop anyone to deserve laying road chalk in conference on the greatest named field in college football.
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yep. agreed. and tamu showed a decent offense against okie lite last week, basically matching their output...yardage-wise. if it weren't for a gift-wrapped 21 pts...2 ints returned for td's, and a punt return...that woulda been a much tighter game. only bringing it up cuz tamu will be moving the ball on kst. just hope they can limit those tournovers.


STEED said:
GL Yanks
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ty, sir :shake:
 
imma glutton for punishment when it comes to totals. another addition...

New Mex St/Nevada over 67.5 (-110) for 1 unit

these Yag-ass clock rules got me all messed up when it comes to totals. but in a normal situation, this fucker would reach 80 easily. there might not be a punt the entire game. (then again, that no punts in a game didn't help the over one bit in that testicle st game a few weeks back.) nevertheless, i still like this one to be full of scoring...quick scoring too.




ok...decided i'm gonna play stanford as well. but i'm waiting for a 7 or 7.5, if im lucky. hell, if bob wants to push the # over the top...please, be my guest, dr. push the thing all the way to +8, if you're taking requests.

briefly...though i've put my thoughts in other's threads about this game.
stanford's off a long roadie...and a tough game against ND. arizona's got great stats, but they haven't played anybody decent yet. what's the best team so far? the new mex squad they lost to on the road? or my bruins, who have just about zero offense to speak of?
no...it isn't much...and it's no wonder those #'s look good...when in reality, they're simply over-inflated. hell, stanford's home win over the beavers was against a way better level of competition than arizona's faced to date.
but the bottom line here is that there's no way AZ isn't looking ahead to the next 2 weeks at home...when CAL and USC come to pay a visit...and in USC's case, they come into town carrying a can of whoop-ass with zona's name on it.
anyways, it's a great situational spot on the home dog, imho. stanford will show up to play at home/in this game...where i'm not sure zona will be doing the same, completely. we all know about the road game in NM. and we should all see how zona's #'s are skewed to date.
but again...there are more of my thoughts on this one in some other threads...
 
Myself I had Zona but am reconsidering just because of the spot and Zona has not really played anyone to date yet. Let's not forget they are replacing practically all of their defensive line, and the article below from Arizona insiders seem to indicate it's a weekness. I think Stanford is going to provide the first real test to that Dline physically outside of New Mexico, especially in the run game. New Mexico put 221 on the ground compared to Zona's 67. Zona gave up 115 to UCLA doesn't sound horrible but apparently didn't look stout. Now Stanford put 200 on Beavers and actually doubled up Notre Dame in the run game. The Washington game is only common opponent and stats about even when considering Locker out vs. Zona.

On the other side of the table you really have to believe Stanford is vulnerable to the Arizona pass. 404-345-347 have been posted in the air against Stanford. Zona passed for 321 on NM, 228 on UCLA, 300 on Toledo obviously they can pass it and they have run it well except for the New Mexico game, a team that can do that to you.

---This is going to be a dichotomy of the run of Stanford vs. the pass of Arizona. If that is the case, it will come down to turnovers. Stanford is hoping it's not like the Notre Dame game and Arizona is hoping it's not like the New Mexico game. I think your left with the situation angle of capping, and kind of like New Mexico I think Stanford coming back home off of a eastern road trip loss could have the edge.

I certainly don't like this Zona game as much as I did previously. I like this team, but I don't think Kansas lost the pieces Zona lost to graduation to come out of nowhere for a breakout year. The early domination might not be what I thought of, more likely an improved team that has played weaker competition and now faces a game they probably would of lost in the past.

STANFORD’S RESUME

OREGON STATE-------210-86 rushing. 91-404 passing 0-3 turnvoers. (36-29 FINAL) One of Stanford’s scores an int return.
ARIZONA STATE-----113-127 rushing 120-345 passing. 2-3 turnovers. (28-17 FINAL)
TCU --------------- 71-233 rushing. 122-145 passing. 0-3 turnovers.(10-24 FINAL) One of Stanford’s scores was a blocked punt.
SAN JOSE----------- 204-54 rushing. 159-165 passing, 2-2 turnovers (35-28 FINAL)
WASHINGTON--------244-140 rushing, 222-237 passing, 1-1 turnovers. (35-28 FINAL)
NOTRE DAME --------161-83 rushing, 182-347 passing, 0-4 turnovers. (21-28 FINAL)


ARIZONA’S RESUME

IDAHO----------------265-64 rushing, 256-48 passing, 5-0 turnovers, (70-0 FINAL) One of Zona scores a punt return
TOLEDO--------------153-74 rushing, 299-170 passing, 1-0 turnovers, (41-16 FINAL)
NEW MEXICO -------- 67-221 rushing, 321-114 passing, 1-5 turnovers, (28-36 FINAL)
UCLA-----------------111-115 rushing, 222-81 passing, 1-1 turnovers, (31-10 FINAL)
WASHINGTON---------256-63 rushing, 193-181 passing, 2-0 turnovers, (48-14 FINAL)




Here is an article from Arizona.scout.com
Against Washington: Brooks Reed, Ricky Elmore and D’Aundre Reed – the Wildcats’ three main defensive ends – combined for a total zero sacks. Neither of the three has been especially productive this season when it’s come to putting pressure on the opposing quarterback.

The defensive tackle position is depleted at best. Lolomana Mikaele probably won’t return this season, Earl Mitchell is banged up, Kaniela Tuipulotu and Donald Horton are decent, and the Wildcats don’t have much beyond that.

Jowyn Ward is now out with a sprained foot, and he could be sidelined for a long time. Another true freshman, Dominique Austin, was pulled from his redshirt year against Washington. He didn’t pick up any tackles in his first action.

Solomon Koehler, who some felt could even start this season as a true freshman, has been disappointing in practice and hasn’t been able to work his way into the rotation. Hans Philipp appears to be the odd man out.

On top of all that, Arizona’s run defense was very bad against New Mexico and UCLA, and a good part of the reason the Wildcats lost that game to the Lobos.

Bottom line: if the defensive ends don’t step up and the coaches can’t find some production and health out of the tackles, the last seven games of the season won’t be nearly as productive as the first five.

There are athletes all across the defensive line, but the coaches definitely have work to do to put it all together.

Let’s hope that Stanford is the game where it turns around.
 
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excellent post, o-state :shake:

and yes, my biggest worry here is stanford's pass defense against the zona offense.
that's a big part of why i'm holding out for 7 or more. i'll have to hope they keep the ball away from zona's offense as much as they can, with that ground game...and especially, no turnovers/extra short fields.

lastly, i can honestly tell you that ucla doesn't have a good rushing attack...let alone a good offense at all.
there was very little threat of craft beating them in the air...yet they put up some decent #s.


---This is going to be a dichotomy of the run of Stanford vs. the pass of Arizona. If that is the case, it will come down to turnovers. Stanford is hoping it's not like the Notre Dame game and Arizona is hoping it's not like the New Mexico game. I think your left with the situation angle of capping, and kind of like New Mexico I think Stanford coming back home off of a eastern road trip loss and 0-2 in the Pac-10 could have the edge


so very true :cheers:
 
I edited 0-2 out Stanford is 2-1 in the Pac-10.

Looking at last year's results for both teams, Stanford did win @ Arizona 21-20. The Wildcats are improved but Stanford I would say is an improved team as well from looking at last years games.

I will say this...Arizona I think is the more balanced team here. The biggest difference in Arizona this year is their rush offense. They averaged just 77 yards a game last year, but were worse than that as two games (N. Arizona, WSU skewed them.) These right here are full games from last year, they put up rushing yards of 32, 38, 21, 9, 22, 25, 56, 44. Wow that's beyond deplorable horrible oh my god.

So Stanford, while I think they can run a good bit on Arizona, they must also stop Zona from running the ball. That's what New Mexico did. Stanford has got to win both sides of this rushing battle convincingly.

Stanford has only passed for over 200 once this year. Wildcats have not given up 200 this year. They are going to win that battle easily, and if the Wildcats have improved their rush offense this year I think the rushing disparity is less than the passing disparity between these two teams. Once again the Cat opponents have not been of the same quality though take that into consideration. The key will be Stanford making Zona completely one dimensonal, otherwise Zona is the better all around team.
 
bob didn't do it, but i got what i was waiting for...while checking bob line movements.


Stanford (+7) over Arizona (-110) for 1 unit


:tiphat:
 
Administrator said:
bob didn't do it, but i got what i was waiting for...while checking bob line movements.


Stanford (+7) over Arizona (-110) for 1 unit


:tiphat:
Click to expand...


another addition...this one Bob related.
hate to go against him, as he's been pretty hot of late...but that said, i think he created enough value to go the other way. (and i know steele agrees with the play, lol.)


Notre Dame (+9) over UNC (-110) for 1 unit


Back in week 6, unc was an early lean of mine for this week. but i was hoping to lay 3 at most, which wasn't gonna happen.
bottom line...i see these teams as evenly matched, albeit with varying attributes, and (one way or another) it'll be a one score game.

Obviously, the chances for 3 blocked punts aren't good here lol. And Notre Dame will continue to struggle running the ball. Nevertheless, they won't struggle with the passing game. UNC isn't much for sacks...and the ND o-line shouldn't have a problem protecting claussen. they won't be able to run much against that d-line of unc...but they will have time to throw the ball. and the ND WRs (as a unit) are bigger/faster/stronger/etc than the unc secondary (as a unit). almost whenever they throw, there should be mismatches to exploit...if claussen's making the correct reads. And as long as Claussen's not abnormally inaccurate this saturday, there won't be 3 picks for the unc defense this week either.
Now the ND defense has it's weaknesses as well...but it's not like the UNC offense is tearing it up. They've had very little success running the ball. And even though the 3rd string qb has performed admirably, it's not like they're doing much thru the air either. Bottom line...they've been opportunistic, and they've taken advantage of other's mistakes.
No doubt UNC is an improved team...but (i hate to admit it) so is ND. Anyways, in what i see as a one score game either way...this was too much value to ignore at 9 pts.
 
and thankfully wake won/covered tonight. that would've been one of the most frustrating losses had they not. just unreal...

but it worked out as it should've in the end. and congrats to everyone who started the week off on the right foot with WF.

:cheers:
 
great start with WF last night, love your card for this weekend except the UNC and A&M game. Best of luck!
 
love the notre dame add , and agree with your writeup.

gl manana ( russian for tomorrow i think )
 
vegaskyle said:
love the notre dame add , and agree with your writeup.

gl manana ( russian for tomorrow i think )
Click to expand...

ty, vk :shake: ND was a good one...a one score game, for sure.


Well, 9-5 in week seven. (19-9 between 10/4 & 10/11)

Felt it was going to be a better day than that though. But the 5 losses were legit...no missed FGs or anything Yag to blame...i simply was on the wrong side of those 5. Wisky was a joke, where PSU was the real deal. Texas Tech was unproven, and they're lucky they didn't end up with a loss. NW was clearly outclassed. A&M was as well, even though they're sloppy as hell. And that was simply too many points to lay on the U. So nothing to gripe about with the 5 losses...just have to do a better job capping these games, and try not to end up on cleary the wrong side of so many of them.

Now for the good 9 games, lol. Not gonna get into everyone of them...but it was definitely satisfying to be spot on with those nine games. Even a total/over went exactly as expected, despite the clock rules. So can't complain, as it was a pretty good week.

51-44-4, +2.8175 after today.
And now it's on to the niffel...and getting a start on next week's college slate as well.

'an_horse'
 
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