Week 7 NFL Discussion

nbafan88

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
Someone please Post lines when available


The Jets, Dolphins, Bills, and Jags all lost straight up and ATS before traveling to London. The Lions and Chiefs play in London in week 8.
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Thu 10/22[/TD]
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[TD]303 Seattle Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -4½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o41½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]8:25PM[/TD]
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[TD]304 San Francisco 49ers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +4½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u41½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]453 Cleveland Browns[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +4½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o42½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]454 St. Louis Rams[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -4½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u42½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]457 Houston Texans[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_23" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +4½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_23" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]458 Miami Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_23" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -4½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_23" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]461 Minnesota Vikings[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_24" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -2 -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_24" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o44½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]462 Detroit Lions[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_24" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_24" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u44½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]463 Atlanta Falcons[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_25" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -3½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_25" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o47½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]464 Tennessee Titans[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_25" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +3½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_25" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u47½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]465 Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +3½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o44½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]466 Washington Redskins[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -3½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u44½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/25[/TD]
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[TD]469 Oakland Raiders[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_27" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +4½ -110[/TD]
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[TD]4:05PM[/TD]
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[TD]470 San Diego Chargers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_27" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -4½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Mon 10/26[/TD]
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[TD]475 Baltimore Ravens[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_28" name="altS1_28" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+7½ -125</option><option value="1">+7 -105</option></select>[/TD]
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[TD]8:30PM[/TD]
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[TD]476 Arizona Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_28" name="altS2_28" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-7½ +105</option><option value="1">-7 -115</option></select> [/TD]
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4.5's and 3.5's, smh.

Just gets crazier and crazier. Not our dad's league, that's for sure.
 
I'm on Min/Det Under & bought AZ down to 7. They are too talented to be losing to the Steelers & Rams of the league for long. Baltimore should be just what the Dr. ordered to get back to winning.

Not a ton that I liked on this card.
 
Gabe said:
I know what you are saying. Stuff that worked in the past sure ain't working anymore.
Click to expand...

someone said this same line in the "what have we learned" thread and its 100% accurate. Its next to impossible anymore.

Having said that, I think Seattle shuts out SF. Miami should roll. Vikings are a different team at home than they are on the road; they may have trouble with Detroit. Raiders should keep it close, but that game should be a shootout. May go Raiders or over there.
 
Evolution of the flag has not helped. So hard to interpret.

Need to rely more on power index etc than situation and perception gets a nod as well.

Adage of being more lucky than good applies in the NFL, imo
 
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jets catching more than a td looks really good, they have the personnel to take adv of pats oline injuries. think the offense will be able to keep brady's chances to a minimum as well. hell i think jets could conceivably win so ill happily play them catching more than 7. probably will wait and hope for +10 cause not much reason to play +9, if it falls to 8.5 i will grab or gets to 10 with normal juice i will grab..
 
Early leans


San Fran +6
Jets +8.5.... Highly doubt I take this
Minnesota -2.5
Pitt
Miami -5
St Louis -4.5
Arizona -7.5
 
Niners in a bad spot if they even exist in this league anymore.

Game will tell us more about the Hags than the Niners.
 
What's so bad about the spot?

i don't know what you guys see in the Seahawks, it's not a good cohesive team. Going OTR on a short week against a team that plays well at home and has their own turmoil issues that they're trying to get behind them
 
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Bad team as a divisional home dog off a straight-up home dog win.

Seattle has issues but the Niners are worse.
 
The niners defense has been really good at home and Kaepernick is a whole new player in the past 2 weeks. The games before that can be thrown out the window IMO
 
Was Andrew luck just rusty on all those high throws? I feel like the weeks "off" were an issue for him. Frank gore should do some damage against the saints defense and the colts should be able to put up 3 TDs easy
 
What I've learned this year is to never get excited about a play that ends up being big or game changing, very likely there will be a flag mixed in at the end of the play to give you some good ole fashioned blue balls.

Also I don't like the lines, even me, someone who always finds a play in a game, is struggling from time to time.

But most importantly, the refs need to stay the F out of the games.
 
Way too much complaining about the officiating. Way too much. Most of the games were just finely officiating. The Bears/lions game was awful though.


I think players deserve a lot of the blame for poor play. I don't like that a lot of NFL refs have to full time jobs in addition to be refs but that's the way it has to be.

Officiating isn't an easy thing to do.
 
nbafan88 said:
Way too much complaining about the officiating. Way too much. Most of the games were just finely officiating. The Bears/lions game was awful though.


I think players deserve a lot of the blame for poor play. I don't like that a lot of NFL refs have to full time jobs in addition to be refs but that's the way it has to be.

Officiating isn't an easy thing to do.
Click to expand...

What do you mean 'that's the way it has to be?' It certainly is not the way it needs to be, it's simply the way the NFL wants it to be. There is NO reason the NFL cannot hire and train full time officials, absolutely no reason. I've brought this up about a dozen times in the past 3-4 years...there is only one conclusion that one could make as to why the NFL hasn't made their officials full time...they don't care how poorly their games are officiated and like the controversy. If anyone has another reason, I'd love to hear it.
 
teams coming off a bye last week went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS: Miami, Jets, Vikes

This weeks teams in NFL coming off a bye are Dalls at Gmen, Rams vs Cleveland, oakland at SD, and TB at washington

 
Lareux said:
What do you mean 'that's the way it has to be?' It certainly is not the way it needs to be, it's simply the way the NFL wants it to be. There is NO reason the NFL cannot hire and train full time officials, absolutely no reason. I've brought this up about a dozen times in the past 3-4 years...there is only one conclusion that one could make as to why the NFL hasn't made their officials full time...they don't care how poorly their games are officiated and like the controversy. If anyone has another reason, I'd love to hear it.
Click to expand...


I only said that because the NFL season is only a 4 month season so you want the NFL to put them on salary for the entire year?
 
nbafan88 said:
I only said that because the NFL season is only a 4 month season so you want the NFL to put them on salary for the entire year?
Click to expand...

Well, short answer....yes. They make $9 BILLION per year, they can certainly afford it, especially when it means their games will be correctly officiated and controversy free (or much less).

Longer answer....the NFL is not a 4 month season anymore...it's basically year round with mini camps, rookie camps, etc, etc. Plenty of opportunities for the officials to be present and working on their craft. They can also take classes, take tests on the rules, possibly even head to colleges to practice at their practices. The officials already are present at training camps and preseason, so it's at the very least for them a 6 month season right now. Again, there is no good reason they aren't full time officials right now...and no one has been able to give a good reason as to why they aren't.

If you make it a full time job that pays very well, you also increase the competition for the job. It would mean that only the best officials get the job...whether that be an ex-NFL or college player who may have been injured or couldn't cut it in the NFL, or the officials on the roster now. Most of these officials have no business being on the field as the speed of the game is clearly too fast for them. Wouldn't hurt in the least bit to get some younger officials out there who can keep up both physically and mentally.
 
nbafan88 said:
I know all that, I agree with you. The NFL really doesn't care, not yet anyway.


Nice article



Click to expand...

That's the answer right there. If they don't care already, or by now, they never will. After the BS calls we've seen in the past few years, the replacement officials (who weren't much worse overall then what they trot out there now, outside of that call in Seattle), etc...there is no reason they shouldn't already care.
 
NFL is image conscious to the masses, officiating is way, way down on the list they're ready to spend any time thinking about or money on. It's all about media control with the League, only if there was a massive media storm regarding flags and blown calls ruining peoples lives will they address it.
 
Let's assume there is even 200 officials in the NFL. Paying those guys $1 million/year (which is outrageous, I agree) wouldn't even put a dent in their profits in a given year. If they are making $9 billion, that $1 million per official would be 2.2% of their profits.
 
kjohnson109 said:
NFL is image conscious to the masses, officiating is way, way down on the list they're ready to spend any time thinking about or money on. It's all about media control with the League, only if there was a massive media storm regarding flags and blown calls ruining peoples lives will they address it.
Click to expand...

No one disagrees with this. It shouldn't be this way is the point...the integrity of their games should matter to them. And they've also seen plenty of media storms recently about horrible calls made that have impacted games. I can think of half a dozen off the top of my head.

And it wouldn't even be that much money so that shouldn't be an excuse/reason.
 
Lareux said:
No one disagrees with this. It shouldn't be this way is the point...the integrity of their games should matter to them. And they've also seen plenty of media storms recently about horrible calls made that have impacted games. I can think of half a dozen off the top of my head.
Click to expand...

Sure, but until the media take it to the next level and actually display lives being ruined, the League will just get a chuckle out of it, and translating the game to real life is a tough segue.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Sure, but until the media take it to the next level and actually display lives being ruined, the League will just get a chuckle out of it, and translating the game to real life is a tough segue.
Click to expand...

Lives need to be ruined for it to get attention? Hahaha....what?
 
Lareux said:
No one disagrees with this. It shouldn't be this way is the point...the integrity of their games should matter to them. And they've also seen plenty of media storms recently about horrible calls made that have impacted games. I can think of half a dozen off the top of my head.

And it wouldn't even be that much money so that shouldn't be an excuse/reason.
Click to expand...

the problem isnt the amount of time the officials spend officiating, its the sheer amount of rules that nfl refs have to know... its by far the most difficult of all of the major sports



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/23494854/ed-hochuli-doesnt-think-nfl-needs-fulltime-officials





 
Lareux said:
Lives need to be ruined for it to get attention? Hahaha....what?
Click to expand...

That's what gets the attention of the league, you implying that ruining the integrity of the game should get it attention is just as laughable, and a ton less likely.
 
kjohnson109 said:
That's what gets the attention of the league, you implying that ruining the integrity of the game should get it attention is just as laughable, and a ton less likely.
Click to expand...

Yeah, surprise you disagree. The NFL doesn't care about the integrity of their game? That seems odd since they talk all the time about protecting the shield. I find it odd that they do seem to care about the integrity until it deals with how their games are officiated.

Whose life has ever been 'ruined' by an NFL game that you are using that as some sort of measuring stick? I don't even know what in the hell that means, to be honest, which is why I laughed.
 
nbafan88 said:
the problem isnt the amount of time the officials spend officiating, its the sheer amount of rules that nfl refs have to know... its by far the most difficult of all of the major sports



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/23494854/ed-hochuli-doesnt-think-nfl-needs-fulltime-officials
Click to expand...

Right. It could be both though. Younger, more in shape guys may very well officiate a game better than some old 60+ yr old guy who is a lawyer 6 days a week. It may not, but it certainly is worth the attempt, isn't it? Seeing the many, many calls that officials miss on a weekly basis, many right in front of their faces, it's clear that it's not just the rules they struggle with.
 
The only people whose lives have likely been affected by bad calls are gamblers or players who've been cut because of call...well and countless wives and girlfriends around the country who've probably taken all kinds of abuse by rabid fans.

That's the point, as much as we talk about officiating on a gambling board, it isn't really diminishing their brand on the larger scale, it's likely helping it (as you mentioned, they thrive off of controversy, and I haven't even heard much of that this year, nothing outside of the norm)
 
Lareux said:
Yeah, surprise you disagree. The NFL doesn't care about the integrity of their game? That seems odd since they talk all the time about protecting the shield. I find it odd that they do seem to care about the integrity until it deals with how their games are officiated.

Whose life has ever been 'ruined' by an NFL game that you are using that as some sort of measuring stick? I don't even know what in the hell that means, to be honest, which is why I laughed.
Click to expand...


Protecting the shield just means to keep the ratings up. Nobody is boycotting games on Sundays and going to spend time with their mother in law because the NFL officiating sucks. The NFL isn't an organization of high morals and/or integrity.
 
So, as I initially stated, the NFL doesn't care about their officiating. Glad to see we all agree about that.
 
I think the biggest problem is that the way football is played, this is a "penalty" every play. Every play, if you look at every player, you are going to find a hold, an illegal contact, illegal use of hands, or something. Very rarely is a play completely clean. So what needs to stop is the ticky tack penalties, especially those that have no impact on the play. This isa nother reason why penalties can never be reviewable. A coach can just ask for any TD against htem to be reviewed, and chances are there was a hold somewhere.
 
Lareux said:
So, as I initially stated, the NFL doesn't care about their officiating. Glad to see we all agree about that.
Click to expand...

They don't care at all. With what we are seeing htis year, they had to have told the officials to call more right? It wouldnt just happen like this. Too many officials think that millions of people tune in to watch them call ticky tack holds.
 
nbafan88 said:
The niners defense has been really good at home and Kaepernick is a whole new player in the past 2 weeks. The games before that can be thrown out the window IMO
Click to expand...

He played the Ravens and the Giants. Two terrible secondaries.
 
i think the jets will play the pats tough....they have not allowed points so far this season and the pats rely on their offense to win games....8.5 seems crazy to me as did the 9-10 against indy....i am a pats fan and i hate the jets although i hate them less now that rex is gone ha ha....i think the pats will be overvalued for a few weeks
 
Biggest fear for anyone backing the Jets is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Guy fools folks into thinking he's okay and then boom - 3 picks, 2 fumbles.

Tom and Bellyache have put some big scores on him in the past. Granted the last time they faced him was 3 years ago.

Pats O >>>>>>>>> Jets O

Jets D >>>>> Pats D
 
Gabe said:
I know what you are saying. Stuff that worked in the past sure ain't working anymore.
Click to expand...

The league went to shit when they signed the new CB agreement back around 2010, gradually all decent betting situations disappeared.

And when the league started to go super flag crazy from 2012 on-wards it got even worse.

Every great situation is now a flip of a coin and hitting at around 50%.

Teams also have less practice time now which leads to more fundamental errors within games etc.

2001 through 2010 were golden years for NFL betting, particularly 'situational', 2011-2012 pretty good, 2013-2015 has been dire.
 
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[TD="class: team"] NFL - 10/22/2015[/TD]
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[TD="class: pressure"]10/22/2015[/TD]
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10/22

8:25 PM


303 SEA-R Wilson
304 SF-C Kaepernick
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 21702
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 54%
46%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
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[TD="class: pct"] 63%
37%
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[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4
41
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7+103
42u-110
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6.5
42
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6.5
42
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7+100
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -6.5-107/+102
41.5u-103/-104
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6.5
42
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Ka7p under center is a different QB. QB rating over double bs standard drop back shot gun. Something Seattle has little tape on. Splits are showing 70/30 on this game but I think it's more like 90/10. That being said, as a Niner fan, I'd be surprised to see them score easily. However, on the other side of the ball, Seattle has a
bunch of overpaid bums (Wilson, Lynch).
 
Baltimore and the Giants are ranked 27th and 30th out of 32 teams in passing yards allowed.

That gives some insight as to why Kap has had some success the past 2 weeks.

Seattle is 5th in that category.
 
Seattle 6th in Opponent Yards per Play, Niners are 30th.

Niners also have one of the worst defensive lines in the league (30th).

A trip to Santa Clara is just what the sputtering Hags need.
 
The Seahawks team is a mess on the offensive line and they have lockerroom issues. Plus these teams play such close games. I'm not playing anything tonight. GL
 
2daBank said:
jets catching more than a td looks really good, they have the personnel to take adv of pats oline injuries. think the offense will be able to keep brady's chances to a minimum as well. hell i think jets could conceivably win so ill happily play them catching more than 7. probably will wait and hope for +10 cause not much reason to play +9, if it falls to 8.5 i will grab or gets to 10 with normal juice i will grab..
Click to expand...

I agree with you that there is no reason to play +9 in the NFL. Yet men still do it. And it's embarrassing.
 
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