Week 7 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
VolsWhiskeyMaker
Pretty much a regular
TN
Kansas
USC
Penn St
Kansas
USC
Penn St
MrMulligan
Pretty much a regular
UConn
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm interested in South Dakota State.
It's in Fargo, but North Dakota State isn't right this year. Not great timing since they are off their latest struggle game vs Indiana State - maybe they were looking ahead, or maybe it is continuation of their off play this year.
Bison are 5-1 straight up, but just 2-4 ATS and naturally they are always big favorites vs FCS opponents. They are actually on a 1-3 ATS run. And some of their ATS loses haven't been close. They beat Indiana State last week 31-26 as 30 pt favorite. They only beat YSU 23-14 as 23 pt fav (closest game vs YSU in 4 years). 3 weeks ago they covered by a 1/2 point over South Dakota 34-17 laying 16.5. Then 4 games ago, Arizona beat them straight up. There are chinks in this armor.
Jack Rabbits are also 5-1 and just 3-3 ATS, but the difference is South Dakota St is playing their best football now after a bit of a slow start despite the .500 ATS record. They had the tough Iowa loss, which they covered. More recently they beat South Dakota 28-3 as 14.5 pt fav. Didn't cover vs W ILL 34-10 as 34 pt fav (led 34-3). Beat Missouri State 28-14 laying 2 on the road. Didn't cover laying 51.5 vs Butler, but won 45-17 (led 45-7). Their other non-cover was week 2 vs UC Davis whom they led 24-10 4th Q, but only won 24-22 as 17 pt fav.
South Dakota State has a fantastic run D which is what is needed playing this North Dakota State team. Bison aren't a passing team and don't threaten opponents through the air.
South Dakota State has actually won the last 2 in the series (won by 8 and 10) and they are the better team again this year.
It's in Fargo, but North Dakota State isn't right this year. Not great timing since they are off their latest struggle game vs Indiana State - maybe they were looking ahead, or maybe it is continuation of their off play this year.
Bison are 5-1 straight up, but just 2-4 ATS and naturally they are always big favorites vs FCS opponents. They are actually on a 1-3 ATS run. And some of their ATS loses haven't been close. They beat Indiana State last week 31-26 as 30 pt favorite. They only beat YSU 23-14 as 23 pt fav (closest game vs YSU in 4 years). 3 weeks ago they covered by a 1/2 point over South Dakota 34-17 laying 16.5. Then 4 games ago, Arizona beat them straight up. There are chinks in this armor.
Jack Rabbits are also 5-1 and just 3-3 ATS, but the difference is South Dakota St is playing their best football now after a bit of a slow start despite the .500 ATS record. They had the tough Iowa loss, which they covered. More recently they beat South Dakota 28-3 as 14.5 pt fav. Didn't cover vs W ILL 34-10 as 34 pt fav (led 34-3). Beat Missouri State 28-14 laying 2 on the road. Didn't cover laying 51.5 vs Butler, but won 45-17 (led 45-7). Their other non-cover was week 2 vs UC Davis whom they led 24-10 4th Q, but only won 24-22 as 17 pt fav.
South Dakota State has a fantastic run D which is what is needed playing this North Dakota State team. Bison aren't a passing team and don't threaten opponents through the air.
South Dakota State has actually won the last 2 in the series (won by 8 and 10) and they are the better team again this year.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Indiana- Let down spot perhaps for Maryland after that tough loss to Purdue? No way I'm laying 11.5 these two played a really good game last year in Piscataway.
Navy- Might be a bad spot for them off that beat down of Tulsa but has SMU quit? Again I'm not laying 13.5.
NMSU- Rivalry game. Lobos just fired their OC. Blown DD leads two weeks in a row.
I'll gladly take Gundy as a ML dog.
Navy- Might be a bad spot for them off that beat down of Tulsa but has SMU quit? Again I'm not laying 13.5.
NMSU- Rivalry game. Lobos just fired their OC. Blown DD leads two weeks in a row.
I'll gladly take Gundy as a ML dog.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Historical support for Tennessee:
Vols were just 7-6 last year, but that bodes well for them. Since 1989, there have been 10 undefeated home dogs that are 6-0 or better (after winning fewer than 10 games the previous year) facing an undefeated visitor. The home dog is 10-0 ATS.
And 10-0 straight up. See chart below.
This record includes Auburn over Florida in 1993, Alabama over Auburn in 1994, and OU over Nebraska in 2000. The most recent game was Michigan State over Michigan last year.
Those ten home dogs included two teams that had lost 7 straight to their opponents: OU in 2000 (featuring Josh Heupel at QB), which had lost 7 straight to Nebraska (including 69-7 and 73-21 in the two most-recent games in 1997 and 1996), and Mizzou in 2010, which had lost 7 straight to OU (including a 62-21 loss in the most recent matchup in 2008).
In 2006, Rutgers beat Louisville 28-25 despite having lost to UL 56-5 the previous year (their only prior matchup since 1986).
So long stretches of futility and recent blowout losses haven't stopped these home dogs in the past.
Vols were just 7-6 last year, but that bodes well for them. Since 1989, there have been 10 undefeated home dogs that are 6-0 or better (after winning fewer than 10 games the previous year) facing an undefeated visitor. The home dog is 10-0 ATS.
And 10-0 straight up. See chart below.
This record includes Auburn over Florida in 1993, Alabama over Auburn in 1994, and OU over Nebraska in 2000. The most recent game was Michigan State over Michigan last year.
Those ten home dogs included two teams that had lost 7 straight to their opponents: OU in 2000 (featuring Josh Heupel at QB), which had lost 7 straight to Nebraska (including 69-7 and 73-21 in the two most-recent games in 1997 and 1996), and Mizzou in 2010, which had lost 7 straight to OU (including a 62-21 loss in the most recent matchup in 2008).
In 2006, Rutgers beat Louisville 28-25 despite having lost to UL 56-5 the previous year (their only prior matchup since 1986).
So long stretches of futility and recent blowout losses haven't stopped these home dogs in the past.
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
UConn
NMSU
UMass
Man talk about bottom feeders haha, but seriously wouldn’t be shocked if they all won SU
NMSU
UMass
Man talk about bottom feeders haha, but seriously wouldn’t be shocked if they all won SU
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Wazzou
they've won 8 straight over the beavers. why stop now?
they've won 8 straight over the beavers. why stop now?
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
MIKE GUNDY - last NINE games on the road getting points - (when the spread is 6 or less) - he's won EIGHT outright, and covered all 9. Frogs are explosive, but bad D / ST
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N Illinois of course - Eagles should lose this one, whether RL plays or not
Penn St - off bye - Michigan strong but flawed
Kentucky - Levis plays they win SU ?
Ga SO - JMU ranked, on top of the world !!!!
LSU - both stink - I'll go with BK here
Ark St .... Ohio
Vs shaky / flaky favorites
Kent St - Toledo loses one like this every year - so far so good tho
Nebraska - Boilers only won 3/9 at B10 home
Iowa St - Horns never lose in this spot now do they?
Sparty - Wisky may have turned things around or no? - Fred Murtz not a bad match for that MSU pass D
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N Illinois of course - Eagles should lose this one, whether RL plays or not
Penn St - off bye - Michigan strong but flawed
Kentucky - Levis plays they win SU ?
Ga SO - JMU ranked, on top of the world !!!!
LSU - both stink - I'll go with BK here
Ark St .... Ohio
Vs shaky / flaky favorites
Kent St - Toledo loses one like this every year - so far so good tho
Nebraska - Boilers only won 3/9 at B10 home
Iowa St - Horns never lose in this spot now do they?
Sparty - Wisky may have turned things around or no? - Fred Murtz not a bad match for that MSU pass D
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
wow! love that stat.
A lot at stake if he plays and hurts that shoulder more, I've heard he can't throw the ball over 10-15 w/out pain
Gibbs is honestly who I am very nervous about. He is like another Alvin Kamara
Personally, I think the game plan is to hit us in the mouth and run right at us, control TOP, short / intermediate routes.
Bama will keep it between the chains, avoid that 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 12
And Listen Hooker is still hurt from the shot he took in LSU
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
From what I understand, Bryce's shoulder is fine and he can throw it normally. The issue is he has some bruising that's taking time to heal. There's no way he plays if there is any increased chance that he hurts his shoulder more. Saban wouldn't allow it, and his parents certainly wouldn't. Probably going to be a padding issue and pain management. Don't think you can take a toradol injection to dull the pain of a bruised rib
Tillman's health is interesting too. Didn't he have tightrope surgery? I know that's done to heal high ankle sprains faster, but as a WR, the strain he puts on his ankles is far greater than what the players from Alabama with that surgery have had to go through
Tillman's health is interesting too. Didn't he have tightrope surgery? I know that's done to heal high ankle sprains faster, but as a WR, the strain he puts on his ankles is far greater than what the players from Alabama with that surgery have had to go through
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d be interested in young over props if he plays. Vols secondary is shit. Maybe under on Gibbs rushing yards tho. I’m not playing bama, not sure I’ll be on vols either tho, although I’m tempted. I can’t imagine vols will take more money than bama, darlings or not all the squares love bama.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think I’d look at Gibbs under rush but over receiving
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Just gonna put this here:
Anthony Richardson Florida 24 44 54.5 453 10.3 10.2 2 1 151.5
Formatting sucks, but I think you all can read a stat line. All the talk about Bryce...I rate Milroe as a better QB than Richardson, with a far superior supporting cast both offensively and defensively.
Anthony Richardson Florida 24 44 54.5 453 10.3 10.2 2 1 151.5
Formatting sucks, but I think you all can read a stat line. All the talk about Bryce...I rate Milroe as a better QB than Richardson, with a far superior supporting cast both offensively and defensively.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Milroe will probably end up better than Richardson is right now, but watching him against aTm, he was a deer in headlights. He's not ready. I guess because of the suddenness of him going in against Ark he didn't have time to think about the situation. Plus he had a 14-0 lead. Having a whole week knowing he was starting against the Aggies must have increased his anxiety level.
Alabama held Tenn to their lowest offensive yardage output last year, mainly by stopping the run. I think the defense will do their part on Saturday. The question is will the offense be able to handle the environment better than it did in Austin
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I watched the TX game. TX played inspired Ball defensively with a HC that knows the personnel and tendencies of BAMA. Do you not factor those intangibles at all?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think vols can beat them thru the air tho, the only legit passing offense bama faced was texas and Ewers was carving them before he got hurt. I have loved Hooker since his Vatech days, if he gets Tillman back I think vols can attack bama thru the air!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Yes I think Sark had a great plan. Also, our OL is not the same lineup from that day and has played better, though I wouldn't call them great by any stretch. And now we know just how much time and energy Texas gave to the prep of that game. Similar to last week with Jimbo calling several plays that he knew would work given our tendencies. I don't know if Heupel is putting that much emphasis on the Alabama game. I also think Texas, and certainly Texas A&M, have far more talent than Tennessee at this point, regardless of the utilization of that talent. But going back to last year, we have shown a tendency on the road to not handle the environment well. We were doing much better at Arkansas, then of course had to deal with losing our best player. So I'd like to see us be disciplined on the road before I just assume we are going to do it. I know they can, but I'm kind of in prove it mode
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Ewers had 2 drives and while he was throwing it well, we'll never know what would have happened after he started getting hit every play. We also have a different CB starting since that day, and a better grasp of our rotation since then. And Sark's play calling is beyond reproach. The Tenn/Baylor offense isn't particularly difficult concept-wise, it's predicated on tempo and space. Hooker is of course a bad ass, but kind of apples and oranges comparison to style that Texas plays. I fully expect Tenn to hit on some big pass plays. It's just going to happen no matter how well the Alabama defense plays.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
If you are considering a bet on Tennessee on the basis that Bryce will not be able to throw, I'd recommend re-thinking that. Not saying Tennessee won't beat a healthy Bryce, but from what I've been told, he will not be limited in the game Saturday. At least not physically
2daBank
Voice of Reason
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I wasn’t trying to compare them stylistically, texas was just the only capable passing attack bama has really faced and while Ewers was in it looked rough for them defending. Think hooker could be a massive problem but I’m more looking at it from a prop perspective than actually betting sides
I don’t think Bama is gonna see an environment like this ever.
They need to run the ball, control TOP and take the crowd out as soon as possible.
I’ll try to dig up facts for my stats but 2 things the Vols do is win the 1Q and they handle the “Middle 8” VERY well this year. I think I heard it was something like 52-3 in the “Middle 8” but let me locate the #s on that.
And it’s NO secret but Bama and their 1H cover rate is ridiculous
We haven’t seen a line like Bama yet.
They are on a totally different level than what we’ve seen. LSU is comparable when they are healthy but we caught LSU with 2 of their top OL out and I believe 1 was playing injured at about say 60-70%
But this will absolutely be the best line we have seen so far.
We run fast except for 3rd downs…. They will run up to the line fast call their play then step back away and get the call, see what they are facing on D.
I think we are going to have to keep the pace up, snap that ball quick and go w/ the play.
Giving Saban time on 3rd down to adjust & disguise is what we need to avoid. Keep the fast break up and going, press, press, press
I think we are going to have to keep the pace up, snap that ball quick and go w/ the play.
Giving Saban time on 3rd down to adjust & disguise is what we need to avoid. Keep the fast break up and going, press, press, press
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Probably would be good spot for Navy in terms of confidence, but maybe it makes SMU more aware of Navy's capability? I don't think SMU has quit, they looked like the superior team to UCF in the 1H last Wednesday. Then in the 2H they did not. Why is there thinking they quit, because some kids are looking to transfer? I'd say they aren't putting it all together to their potential, that is all. It has been a tough series for Navy the last few. SMU has won last 2 and 3 of 4, but 4 of the last 5 regardless of winner have been one-score games. Last year Navy was off their surprising upset at UCF and only lost by 7 vs SMU, although SMU outgained them 404-241 (Navy scored on fumble ret TD). Navy has a nice little run going, 3-0 ATS, pulled upsets in 2 of their last 3 and covered their last two road games as DD dogs. Something does appear off with SMU, I thought they were good enough to beat Maryland, UCF or TCU - while they showed some glimpses in those, there is something a miss.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Kent, but they need to get their shit straightened out. Were 2.5 pts away from going 3-0 ATS as big road dogs vs tough P5 teams and then fail to cover as favs vs two MAC teams. Bunch of yards vs Ohio (736), not many points off those yards. Last week vs Mia O, got in a 17-0 hole, nearly cameback, still put up over 400y, but only scored 24 pts and lost.
Kent is doing some things well, they convert 3rd downs over 50%, they are the only MAC team to avg over 200 ypg rushing, Schlee is the #2 rated passer in the league, 36 plays of 20+ yards (tied 1st MAC). Kent has the top 2 WRs in the MAC in terms of yards and yards per game.
What aren't they doing well? Both the O and D are starting games slow and making it harder on themselves. The O is just 3-of-8 4th down, second worst conversion rate on 4th down in the MAC. The O scores under 60% TD rate in the Red Zone, just 13 TDs on 22 RZ trips. They've only made 8 of 12 FGs. Bottom 1/3 pass eff D. Kent O moves the ball well, but then a turnover, a penalty, a failed 4th down, a missed FG - it's all hurting them the last two weeks and keeps pts off the board. Kent D is not bad, but they have been starting games bad.
After seeing Central Mich struggle vs Ball State, it reminds me just how off Central Mich has been this year. Toledo certainly kept them down (held CM O to 3.96 ypp), but so did Ball State last week (held CM to 3.82 ypp). Toledo did a number on a hot and cold NIU team as well, although Toledo did benefit from a +4 TO ratio and 2 pick-sixes. I personally am not sold on Toledo being as good as 38-17 and 52-32 MAC victories make them seem like - I believe Toledo is a perennial underachiever. And I'm not sure Kent is as bad as a 24-27 loss and 31-24 OT win vs mid-pack type conference teams.
I think if both teams play their best Kent can win. Kent failed to cover both games the last two weeks, but once behind at HT, they covered both 2H spreads and just the opposite for Toledo, they were up comfortably in both their MAC games at HT and Central Mich and NIU outscored them in the 2H. Something to think about if things work out that way again this week.
Kent is doing some things well, they convert 3rd downs over 50%, they are the only MAC team to avg over 200 ypg rushing, Schlee is the #2 rated passer in the league, 36 plays of 20+ yards (tied 1st MAC). Kent has the top 2 WRs in the MAC in terms of yards and yards per game.
What aren't they doing well? Both the O and D are starting games slow and making it harder on themselves. The O is just 3-of-8 4th down, second worst conversion rate on 4th down in the MAC. The O scores under 60% TD rate in the Red Zone, just 13 TDs on 22 RZ trips. They've only made 8 of 12 FGs. Bottom 1/3 pass eff D. Kent O moves the ball well, but then a turnover, a penalty, a failed 4th down, a missed FG - it's all hurting them the last two weeks and keeps pts off the board. Kent D is not bad, but they have been starting games bad.
After seeing Central Mich struggle vs Ball State, it reminds me just how off Central Mich has been this year. Toledo certainly kept them down (held CM O to 3.96 ypp), but so did Ball State last week (held CM to 3.82 ypp). Toledo did a number on a hot and cold NIU team as well, although Toledo did benefit from a +4 TO ratio and 2 pick-sixes. I personally am not sold on Toledo being as good as 38-17 and 52-32 MAC victories make them seem like - I believe Toledo is a perennial underachiever. And I'm not sure Kent is as bad as a 24-27 loss and 31-24 OT win vs mid-pack type conference teams.
I think if both teams play their best Kent can win. Kent failed to cover both games the last two weeks, but once behind at HT, they covered both 2H spreads and just the opposite for Toledo, they were up comfortably in both their MAC games at HT and Central Mich and NIU outscored them in the 2H. Something to think about if things work out that way again this week.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Take Nebraska and Iowa State, and add Tennessee, and you have one hell of a moneyline dog parlay.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Could be a flat spot for Buffalo after going on a 3-0 MAC run to open league play, now they travel to sleepy McGuirk stadium to take on Don Brown's UMass team. Liberty played last week with their backup QBs and stuck to the ground most of the time. UMass kept it close for a bit in the 1H then Liberty slowly stretched their lead throughout the rest of the game.
It's not a particularly good matchup for UMass given their run D is the weaker part of their D and Buffalo will lean on that. There is a chance that UMass could make some plays in their pass D as they have some decent numbers there. And UMass just doesn't have much offense to speak of week-in-week-out, and they get poor QB play. The QB run game will be critical out of the UMass guys and Miami O and Holy Cross QBs each ran for 140 yards on Buffalo. Buffalo maybe should've lost the Miami game, or atleast Buffalo was not the better team on the field that day and while they were superior to Bowling Green last week, that game was crazy and without a comedy of errors, that game is more competitive than a 38-7 win. UMass has bye on deck, Buffalo goes back to MAC play next week hosting Toledo. Pretty big game for UMass.
It's not a particularly good matchup for UMass given their run D is the weaker part of their D and Buffalo will lean on that. There is a chance that UMass could make some plays in their pass D as they have some decent numbers there. And UMass just doesn't have much offense to speak of week-in-week-out, and they get poor QB play. The QB run game will be critical out of the UMass guys and Miami O and Holy Cross QBs each ran for 140 yards on Buffalo. Buffalo maybe should've lost the Miami game, or atleast Buffalo was not the better team on the field that day and while they were superior to Bowling Green last week, that game was crazy and without a comedy of errors, that game is more competitive than a 38-7 win. UMass has bye on deck, Buffalo goes back to MAC play next week hosting Toledo. Pretty big game for UMass.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Why would SMU quit? However, there’s no team SMU has been worse against in the last 30 years than Navy.
N.B. — I read The Gold Sheet this week and learned that the Ford Mustang was named after SMU’s valiant 1963 squad.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Noted that Virginia Tech is off their best offensive game vs an FBS team of the year; 29 pts and 403y of O at Pitt. That's well over 100y more than they had previously been averaging. VT D is pretty bad though. But Miami is bad as well. Canes on 0-3 straight up run and won't forget how bad Miami looked in the 1H vs Southern Miss 4 games ago either. Van Dyke off huge game vs UNC, but his only INT ended the comeback attempt late 4th Q - and Miami run O has vanished, just 103y combined vs both MTSU and UNC. The road hasn't been kind to the Hokies this year, but they have been better at home and have bye on deck. Perhaps they can build offensively on some things from last week. Not sure how to spin the Hokie D to a positive though.
Like Penn State a little bit. Not sure that Michigan is all that much better than Penn State. Some positives and negatives to take away from each B1G game for Michigan. Penn State is more of a mystery of late, the bad weather game vs NW, didn't look real good vs Cen Mich the week after woodshedding Auburn. We will find out if the Penn State run O is for real or not this week. I think PSU O can have some balance and Clifford take a lot of shit, but he's just a good college QB - he should be able to make some plays.
Was a bad look at the end of the game for Kentucky last week. I feel like this is a big game for them to show up, especially on D and put that game behind them, prove that they are better than that. UK has won the last 2 at home vs Miss State in 2020 and 2018 (as 9.5 pt dog). Miss State scored two non-offensive TDs vs aTm 2 weeks ago and got to face Arkansas without their QB last week, and Arkansas pretty much running on empty after their gauntlet stretch. Definitely give Miss St credit for how well they are playing this year and UK isn't all that great honestly, but I think emotionally this is a big one for UK.
I'm just going to say this, Syracuse is 5-0 and they are the worst 5-0 team just judging by who their wins have come against. Purdue is the only team with a winning record that Syracuse has beat and Syracuse coulda or shoulda lost that one. I'd be worried about NC State's mental state if they had lost last week, but off that win, with the backup QB I feel they can circle the wagons and look to head into their bye with positive momentum. Whereas, Syracuse is off Wagner and their bye week, think NC State is going to be more ready for this and Syracuse will face their toughest and best team yet and likely lose.
UConn's on a winning streak! Ball State is a streaky team and offense (multiple games with 450-480y of O then held to 236 and 3.58 ypp last week). But if they are on it will be a challenge for UConn since after all, FIU put up 400+y on them last week and FIU is never a good offensive team. Could be a flat spot for Ball State off two straight revenge games, a come-from-behind MAC West OT win and a MAC West 1 pt win the last week - and Ball State has another West foe on deck. I'm sure Mora is telling his team that despite winning 33-12 last week they didn't play good enough. UConn is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up vs non-power 5 including their FCS win.
Akron...ug Akron. Well, their offense wasn't a problem last week, but boy was their defense a problem. Central Michigan hasn't played many good games this year and are 1-5 straight up with their only win over Bucknell, and they played like shit in that game too. I really have to wonder where Central's heads are at right now off back-to-back MAC losses to open league play. Akron is trying and the O has shown it can do some things, but man that D last week was rough. Only positive might be that the way this Central Mich O is playing of late, they might be less of a challenge than Ohio was.
Lots of dogs involving MAC teams have my attention this week. Bowling Green can't possibly be that bad again, can they, this BG team? This is the same BG team that played pretty respectable vs UCLA and beat Marshall, they they lose by 31 at home last week to Buffalo in a game where tons of stuff went wrong. They were only outgained by 86 yards despite losing by 31. You have to try hard to do that. Miami is off a somewhat surprising win vs Kent and have been competitive in others, should've probably beat Buffalo. I just can't see Bowling Green being any where close to that bad again. Vs their G5 and FCS competition BG lost by 2, won by 3 and won by 3 - I expect them to be in this game before they travel on the road next week.
South Florida - what a mystery this team is. USF showing signs of life, but no consistency at all. Nearly beat Florida and Cincinnati on the road, then get crushed in their other FBS games. USF has played 4 straight games away from home! Back home for this one. Not sure Tulane all that consistent either, good enough to beat Kansas State and bad enough to lose the following week to Southern Miss. Really big game for USF to put up one of those FL or Cincy type games and actually win it heading into their bye week.
Kind of running out of steam on these. I don't know enough about Georgia Southern, outside of their UAB loss, they have been fiesty this year - JMU been on a roll though. IF, if, there was a time to take Colorado, I think it is now. Cal has only beat one team convincingly this year and a team off a bye with their interim HC, even if we all know how awful that interim HC is, if there is any life in Colorado it would be now and Cal has appeared pretty average at times this year. Washington is kind of in trouble, think that Arizona game could be interesting. Fresno a home dog to San Jose...tell me that a month ago. Texas State huge dogs again at Troy, Troy, this Troy team? I don't know, Troy is decent, but not sure how much better they are to Tx St is at this point. One of the best upset winners this year, MTSU is a home dog to WKU...hmmm. LaTech vs North Texas? So many good candidates this week.
Like Penn State a little bit. Not sure that Michigan is all that much better than Penn State. Some positives and negatives to take away from each B1G game for Michigan. Penn State is more of a mystery of late, the bad weather game vs NW, didn't look real good vs Cen Mich the week after woodshedding Auburn. We will find out if the Penn State run O is for real or not this week. I think PSU O can have some balance and Clifford take a lot of shit, but he's just a good college QB - he should be able to make some plays.
Was a bad look at the end of the game for Kentucky last week. I feel like this is a big game for them to show up, especially on D and put that game behind them, prove that they are better than that. UK has won the last 2 at home vs Miss State in 2020 and 2018 (as 9.5 pt dog). Miss State scored two non-offensive TDs vs aTm 2 weeks ago and got to face Arkansas without their QB last week, and Arkansas pretty much running on empty after their gauntlet stretch. Definitely give Miss St credit for how well they are playing this year and UK isn't all that great honestly, but I think emotionally this is a big one for UK.
I'm just going to say this, Syracuse is 5-0 and they are the worst 5-0 team just judging by who their wins have come against. Purdue is the only team with a winning record that Syracuse has beat and Syracuse coulda or shoulda lost that one. I'd be worried about NC State's mental state if they had lost last week, but off that win, with the backup QB I feel they can circle the wagons and look to head into their bye with positive momentum. Whereas, Syracuse is off Wagner and their bye week, think NC State is going to be more ready for this and Syracuse will face their toughest and best team yet and likely lose.
UConn's on a winning streak! Ball State is a streaky team and offense (multiple games with 450-480y of O then held to 236 and 3.58 ypp last week). But if they are on it will be a challenge for UConn since after all, FIU put up 400+y on them last week and FIU is never a good offensive team. Could be a flat spot for Ball State off two straight revenge games, a come-from-behind MAC West OT win and a MAC West 1 pt win the last week - and Ball State has another West foe on deck. I'm sure Mora is telling his team that despite winning 33-12 last week they didn't play good enough. UConn is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up vs non-power 5 including their FCS win.
Akron...ug Akron. Well, their offense wasn't a problem last week, but boy was their defense a problem. Central Michigan hasn't played many good games this year and are 1-5 straight up with their only win over Bucknell, and they played like shit in that game too. I really have to wonder where Central's heads are at right now off back-to-back MAC losses to open league play. Akron is trying and the O has shown it can do some things, but man that D last week was rough. Only positive might be that the way this Central Mich O is playing of late, they might be less of a challenge than Ohio was.
Lots of dogs involving MAC teams have my attention this week. Bowling Green can't possibly be that bad again, can they, this BG team? This is the same BG team that played pretty respectable vs UCLA and beat Marshall, they they lose by 31 at home last week to Buffalo in a game where tons of stuff went wrong. They were only outgained by 86 yards despite losing by 31. You have to try hard to do that. Miami is off a somewhat surprising win vs Kent and have been competitive in others, should've probably beat Buffalo. I just can't see Bowling Green being any where close to that bad again. Vs their G5 and FCS competition BG lost by 2, won by 3 and won by 3 - I expect them to be in this game before they travel on the road next week.
South Florida - what a mystery this team is. USF showing signs of life, but no consistency at all. Nearly beat Florida and Cincinnati on the road, then get crushed in their other FBS games. USF has played 4 straight games away from home! Back home for this one. Not sure Tulane all that consistent either, good enough to beat Kansas State and bad enough to lose the following week to Southern Miss. Really big game for USF to put up one of those FL or Cincy type games and actually win it heading into their bye week.
Kind of running out of steam on these. I don't know enough about Georgia Southern, outside of their UAB loss, they have been fiesty this year - JMU been on a roll though. IF, if, there was a time to take Colorado, I think it is now. Cal has only beat one team convincingly this year and a team off a bye with their interim HC, even if we all know how awful that interim HC is, if there is any life in Colorado it would be now and Cal has appeared pretty average at times this year. Washington is kind of in trouble, think that Arizona game could be interesting. Fresno a home dog to San Jose...tell me that a month ago. Texas State huge dogs again at Troy, Troy, this Troy team? I don't know, Troy is decent, but not sure how much better they are to Tx St is at this point. One of the best upset winners this year, MTSU is a home dog to WKU...hmmm. LaTech vs North Texas? So many good candidates this week.
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
I want to take CU but they've burned me twice. Yes, we all know what Sanford brings(not much) but I like the bye, change angle. Not to mention kickoff is 10am Pacific.
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
I think we've all kind of been there with certain teams. I had CU 1H and game vs TCU (split) and had them vs Minnesota. So it has been a while for me, what do they say, time heals everything?
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
I purposefully didn't mention Nebraska. But should I? FAU was about +16.5/+600 and Nebraska is about +13.5/+400. Sure it's a different game with O'Connell. Maybe it's further justification that the FAU line was just way too high without O'Connell, so does that make this Nebraska line more accurate?
speaking of FAU what about RICE +4 ML ? wrong team favored in my opinion
nebraska is too ugly for me ....purdue maybe not a great fav as evidenced by fau but if they show up they win this by 20 like they could of vs fau imo
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
Rice has pulled two upsets already and nearly a third vs Houston. FAU has been upset by Ohio and North Texas.
That is a good target. I keep being suprised that FAU is not better than they are. But Rice plays hard and gets results.
