Week 7 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
UTEP?
UGA
UGA
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Texas V. Bye.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Texas State small dog
Pitt
Louisville long shot
Duke
Mississippi State
North Texas
FIU
Pitt
Louisville long shot
Duke
Mississippi State
North Texas
FIU
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Definitely have to look at them again!
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
im not on coastal myself, but they could upset. Does Louis Laf have a lot of guys out this week? The line seems low to me
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Notre Dane has a great season last year. Historically that mean they should be in regression mode. I don’t know if they lose this week but I know they will have losses this season. Too many points here take the dog.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
About Coastal. They were +3.5 home dogs to Arky state last game and now only +7 On the road to this ranked squad. Now don’t get me wrong I don’t think Lou laf should be ranked. What I am saying is the line value compared to last game is far less. The only thing that scares me is COVID absentees. Hard to know who is playing yet. The line says beware of the dog. I say hard to put money down.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
FIU, North Texas and Tulane may all be worth a look...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I havnt begun to even cap them yet to say where I think line should be or where I put arky st up against ull. Arky st played Memphis tough, beat kst in that glorious week where all the sun belt whipped the big12!! Covid obviously a big deal in this one as this game been postponed already hasn’t it? They were supposed to play it last week correct? And Ull didn’t play the week prior either as their game with app st got postponed as well. So off top my head id guess that prob where some the potential line value went, ull hasn’t played a game since the 26th of sept so gotta assume they the ones who had the latest Rona issues!
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
That would have more merit than y’all taking Tulane again honestly
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ull injury report a whole string of Covid issues so that means guys ain’t been practicing. Coastal runs a ton, is better on 3rd down offensively and defensively. Man this really looks like a game Ull could get worn down as coastal also controls TOP and ull normally does not.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
The points you made are valid thats why I am skipping the game. ULL is ranked and over hyped in my opinion I am just not sure coastal is the team to get them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno either. If they ever were this be the time. I might take a shot on 1st half ml then see how it going if I wanna play 2nd or what based off what 1st looks like, if we know anything it been ull has started pretty slowly in every game. Can’t imagine a 3 week layoff due to Covid is gonna somehow have them fix that.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
21st ranked team only laying -7 to Coastal. Something smells so you probably win. best of luck
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I love this thread because I play mostly dogs and fade favorites off a huge cover.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Couple people spotted North Texas already.
MTSU finally got their first win of the season and offensively the Raiders had been playing better, in their last 3 games at UTSA, WKU and at FIU, their O has figured some things out (5.53 ypp those last 3 on O), but they are almost strictly a one-man show with QB O'Hara, it's not a strong supporting cast.
But MTSU has also benefited in facing a FIU team that is struggling offensively. FIU's 316 avg O ypg vs Liberty and MTSU ranks 9th worst in the nation to date. MTSU also just played WKU in their 3 point loss (think MTSU trailed by 10 late and backdoored to lose by 3). WKU O rank? You guessed it 4th worst nationally. MTSU and WKU are two of the three least explosive teams in CUSA making for an easier defensive matchup for the Raiders.
Enter North Texas...averaging 550 yards per game (6th best) & 6.71 ypp 10th best in the nation! NT is top 1-2 CUSA ranks in 10+ to 40+ yard plays. has settled in at QB with Austin Aune, his compl % is a little low at 55%, but he has an 8.8 ypa 8-2 ratio and thrown for 721 yards in the last 2 games he was the sole QB (QBs split snaps weeks 1 & 2). NT's best RB Adaway is injured, but Torrey is pretty seasoned and is good enough with his 5.57 ypc on the year
So this is going to be a challenge I think for MTSU.
The problem for NT...is their D, or lack thereof. I do believe though that the opposing offenses NT has faced from week 1 with Houston Baptist to SMU to SMiss to Charlotte all possess some pretty good offenses and players, something MTSU really doesn't have. So while not a good unit, NT should actually be facing their weakest opposing offense on the year. That can only help.
MTSU finally got their first win of the season and offensively the Raiders had been playing better, in their last 3 games at UTSA, WKU and at FIU, their O has figured some things out (5.53 ypp those last 3 on O), but they are almost strictly a one-man show with QB O'Hara, it's not a strong supporting cast.
But MTSU has also benefited in facing a FIU team that is struggling offensively. FIU's 316 avg O ypg vs Liberty and MTSU ranks 9th worst in the nation to date. MTSU also just played WKU in their 3 point loss (think MTSU trailed by 10 late and backdoored to lose by 3). WKU O rank? You guessed it 4th worst nationally. MTSU and WKU are two of the three least explosive teams in CUSA making for an easier defensive matchup for the Raiders.
Enter North Texas...averaging 550 yards per game (6th best) & 6.71 ypp 10th best in the nation! NT is top 1-2 CUSA ranks in 10+ to 40+ yard plays. has settled in at QB with Austin Aune, his compl % is a little low at 55%, but he has an 8.8 ypa 8-2 ratio and thrown for 721 yards in the last 2 games he was the sole QB (QBs split snaps weeks 1 & 2). NT's best RB Adaway is injured, but Torrey is pretty seasoned and is good enough with his 5.57 ypc on the year
So this is going to be a challenge I think for MTSU.
The problem for NT...is their D, or lack thereof. I do believe though that the opposing offenses NT has faced from week 1 with Houston Baptist to SMU to SMiss to Charlotte all possess some pretty good offenses and players, something MTSU really doesn't have. So while not a good unit, NT should actually be facing their weakest opposing offense on the year. That can only help.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Also regarding North Texas, Charlotte did blow them out last week, as I said, Charlotte has some pretty decent skill guys. But what I wanted to point out is that NT only scored 21 points, their lowest scoring output of the year (avg 41 in first 3 games or in their two other FBS games avg 33 ppg). NT did rack up 479 yards last week and they were not garbage yards. They missed a FG from the 15 on their first drive, SOD at the C04 on their third drive (135 yards first 3 drives and zero pts), and then later they would miss 2 more FGs from the C14 and C27....so let's hope they don't ahve to kick any FGs (only made 2 of 6 FGs on the year).
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Really impressive game by UTEP's defense. I can't recall a better defensive game by them vs a conference opponent off the top of my head. Dare I even say their D dominated (DE Praise Amaewhule and DT Keenan Stewart!). Sadly for the Miners, the O wasn't able to do their part.
Not sure how to measure this Southern Miss - UTEP game. You have anything? Pretty short line historically for a Smiss - UTEP game!
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Nicely done Thanks for your time. I think this is a solid play here.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Nothing definitive. Just a hunch based on So Miss play this year. Typically they are a solid team, but they appear to be down this year. UTEP usually is a doormat, but have churned out a few outrigts this year. Win victory comes confidence. Just the opposite with the Golden Eagles.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
A case for line value in Louisville. Previously ranked #7 Miami Florida ( over-ranked for sure, but none the less still #13) Miami Florida was only -2.5 @ Louisville. I follow lines and book makers thinking to try to come up with over laid odds and good prices. This is a good price on Louisville. As long as there are no QB issues or big time Covid issues Louisville makes my card and has a high probability to cover in my opinion. Out right winner? I am not big on these big money lines but occasionally i take a stab. I need more convincing.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Yes there a few dumpster fire teams in college football. Maybe UTEP has Turned the corner. Eastern Michigan used to be in this category too but they have been better. When these typically horid teams make some noise they are on my take or even do not fade anymore list. If they fall back and fail miserably again they fall back on my irrelevant list. Ride UTEP or pass until the drop off.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Baylor was unplayable back in the day
E>MICH before 2015 putrid
UTEP
E>MICH before 2015 putrid
UTEP
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
ND was 21 pt fav home vs Duke. ND was 21 pt fav home vs FSU. With ND -17 here vs LV, could LV be a 4 pt fav on neutral vs Duke or FSU? Yeah they could be. How much better is 1-3 LV with their turnover prone O and bad D than a 1-4 Duke or a 1-3 FSU? I'd say a little better, not sure a lot better. So I'm not sure this line is really off or offers value on LV in a sense that the line really shouldn't be this high. Or do you think this LV team would be a higher favorite vs Duke or FSU?
Another way to look at it, what would a Miami at ND line be? Miami was -2.5 at LV, flip that to Miami with a default 3 pt home field and Miami becomes -8.5 vs LV. If LV is a 8.5 pt road dog vs Miami and a 17 pt road dog at ND, does that imply that ND could be a 8.5 fav over Miami?
That was probably more of a waste of time really - QB issues or covid are one thing. I'll ask the same thing I asked VC in his LV-GT thread last week, what about the LV D? What have we seen to make us think LV D will be good enough sometimes to compete vs ND?
I'm not laying it with ND, I don't want to imply I am saying they are the correct or more reasoned play...but what we have seen from Louisville, it is hard to see where the reason supports them as well.
I will say this, assuming no turnovers (hard and probably a wrong assumption with this LV team), but assuming no turnovers, the LV O does pose the biggest threat and challenge to ND D. No question there. But on the other hand, LV's D would seem to offer little to no challenge to ND's O. I'd submit Duke's D was better. Maybe FSU's D is on par...or maybe the LV D is actually worse? That would be bad for Ville.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Since I’ve pretty much decided to stay away from ville i have no doubt they cover. I’m just so disappointed in this team and my continuing blind trust satterfield gonna get it figured out. Could be I was just wrong about him, the d has improved none, Irish should manhandle them in the trenches. I could def see ville scoring so I might look at over or I might just ignore and watch them cover and make me hate them even more!! Certainly feels like one those games if I think dog hangs it flies over.
A little clarification on the schedule here. ULL was originally supposed to play App State last Wednesday. That game had to be postponed due to App State covid issues. ULL-Coastal were already scheduled to play on 10/17 and with the Southern Miss postponement known early enough it was easy for them to move the game up a week to last Saturday. Then that game had to be moved from Saturday to tomorrow due to hurricane Delta.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
You're a high quality capper and its obvious you do your homework. I appreciate your time and efforts. In this type of game its really difficult to know 100% who is going to cover. The way you break down a game fills in some of my gaps.
What I try to do is spot losing teams. In my opinion Notre Dame this season is not going to be profitable Team ATS. ATS is all I care about.
When Notre Dame is less than -10 since 2001 they are a documented 35-45 ATS. Good news here, doesnt mean it happens this week, but at least this week qualifies in a +EV situation. A good start for Louvi backers.
here>>>>>
Next: last season NOTD was 9-4 ATS but breaking this down they did what they should against terrible teams, (2-0 ATS) against Bowling Green and New Mexico. Those lines -45 and -35. That does go against my point above that they don't do well when laying less than -10, but in last season case they had a better squad. So destroying those teams I eliminate here because Louisville is much better.
In my opinion Louisville falls in to a category of a team that I am willing to ride with. Certainly if they perform poorly and turn the ball over and do all of the stuff that they did in the second half last week against Georgia Tech they are not going to cover here. The game got out of hand late and GT inflated the score. On the other side if Louisville does what they did to get a 21-7 point lead in the first half against GT they can hang in there and get the money this week.
Hard game to cap because of the volitivity of what we have seen on the field, so I rely on the bookies lines and what Notre Dame has done against those numbers. If Notre Dame is not facing trashy teams like Bowling Green South Florida and New Mexico that they destroy, they then become vulnerable to the lines when laying less than -10.
Currently this is what has been happening to Notre Dame and if this continues this week I have a better chance of winning then losing. I am going to need the First half Louisville team and them to play 4 quarters, and the +17 points.
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spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Good luck to you this week
opcorn:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
cash it baby. Coulda took the money line but why be greedy???? Plus I parlayed with Dodgers tt over 5.5!!!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I do think UTSA is one that could happen.
UTSA is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year with one outright upset (week 1 at TxSt).
I like that UTSA just played Army last season and while this is a mostly new head coaching staff, they did retain their DL coach Rod Wright. With Wright last year, UTSA set program records for TFLs and sacks per game. This year, despite some personnel losses, the trend has continued as they are at or above their per game pace in both TFLs and sacks from last year. Current CUSA rank per game is 2nd and 3rd respectively. A good DL and penetration is a good start when facing triple option and the FB dive.
One problem though, their best DL, NG Jaylon Haynes, DNP the last two games. Definitely want him playing, I don't know his status. Even if he can't go, it does seem UTSA has a sound system in place.
UTSA DC is Tryone Nix, who I have thought was pretty decent even though he's had ups and downs at his previous stops.
UTSA started the year with fan favorite Frank Harris at QB, but he was injured vs MTSU 9/25. He missed UAB then tried to go vs BYU but was ineffective and pulled. NMSt transfer QB Adkins looked to be a fine QB for the Roadrunners, but he was knocked out vs UAB. So enter Lowell Narcisse, a dual threat and former LSU signee. He finished 2019 strong and has looked pretty good this year. I think he can and should do well assuming he is the guy this week.
RB Sincere McCormick was 17 yards short of 1000 last year (was Frosh AA, 2nd Tm CUSA) and is 11th nationally this year with 114 ypg (569y in 5 games). Although, he did have his worst game vs his toughest D played last week at BYU. At WR, Zakahari Franklin missed the first two games, but is back with 15rec-208-2TD in the last 3 (he came on as a Fr last year so has 643y in his last 8 games total). The team's leading receiver is 6'3" Joshua Cephus who can make tough contested catches.
All 5 of UTSA's games this year have been one score games in the 4th quarter (pretty good considering they faced UAB and BYU Ds on the road 2 of last 3 weeks).
UTSA Sr kicker Duplessis is 11 for 11 this year and was 82% last year. He has the nation's longest active streak for consecutive made FGs at 20.
Last year vs Army, the UTSA O was pretty bad (Harris QB, McCormick just 5 carries), but the D was able to limit Army to just a 10-0 HT lead, then Army scored 3 straight TDs in the 2nd H to blow the game open. This year UTSA O should be able to move the ball and score some points better than most teams Army has played. MTSU and ULM were totally inept on O for Army's first two wins. Army's D effort vs Cincy is impressive however. Then Cincy came out with an equally unimpressive game vs USF...so I don't know. Army has faced back-to-back FCS teams...Abilene only scored 13 on UTEP (23 on Army) and Citadel only scored 14 on Eastern Kentucky (9 on Army). Army's 4 wins are vs teams with a combined 1-11 record (not counting the 4 losses Army handed them or else it would be 1-15!).
UTSA is allowing 17% capacity for fans, but due to proximity of local military bases, expect a good number of Army fans to be there.
I think this UTSA team has some confidence this season and Army is always a tough out, but they have rarely faced anyone even halfway decent this season. I can see UTSA's O finding success and the D has some potential to limit Army's O.
UTSA is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year with one outright upset (week 1 at TxSt).
I like that UTSA just played Army last season and while this is a mostly new head coaching staff, they did retain their DL coach Rod Wright. With Wright last year, UTSA set program records for TFLs and sacks per game. This year, despite some personnel losses, the trend has continued as they are at or above their per game pace in both TFLs and sacks from last year. Current CUSA rank per game is 2nd and 3rd respectively. A good DL and penetration is a good start when facing triple option and the FB dive.
One problem though, their best DL, NG Jaylon Haynes, DNP the last two games. Definitely want him playing, I don't know his status. Even if he can't go, it does seem UTSA has a sound system in place.
UTSA DC is Tryone Nix, who I have thought was pretty decent even though he's had ups and downs at his previous stops.
UTSA started the year with fan favorite Frank Harris at QB, but he was injured vs MTSU 9/25. He missed UAB then tried to go vs BYU but was ineffective and pulled. NMSt transfer QB Adkins looked to be a fine QB for the Roadrunners, but he was knocked out vs UAB. So enter Lowell Narcisse, a dual threat and former LSU signee. He finished 2019 strong and has looked pretty good this year. I think he can and should do well assuming he is the guy this week.
RB Sincere McCormick was 17 yards short of 1000 last year (was Frosh AA, 2nd Tm CUSA) and is 11th nationally this year with 114 ypg (569y in 5 games). Although, he did have his worst game vs his toughest D played last week at BYU. At WR, Zakahari Franklin missed the first two games, but is back with 15rec-208-2TD in the last 3 (he came on as a Fr last year so has 643y in his last 8 games total). The team's leading receiver is 6'3" Joshua Cephus who can make tough contested catches.
All 5 of UTSA's games this year have been one score games in the 4th quarter (pretty good considering they faced UAB and BYU Ds on the road 2 of last 3 weeks).
UTSA Sr kicker Duplessis is 11 for 11 this year and was 82% last year. He has the nation's longest active streak for consecutive made FGs at 20.
Last year vs Army, the UTSA O was pretty bad (Harris QB, McCormick just 5 carries), but the D was able to limit Army to just a 10-0 HT lead, then Army scored 3 straight TDs in the 2nd H to blow the game open. This year UTSA O should be able to move the ball and score some points better than most teams Army has played. MTSU and ULM were totally inept on O for Army's first two wins. Army's D effort vs Cincy is impressive however. Then Cincy came out with an equally unimpressive game vs USF...so I don't know. Army has faced back-to-back FCS teams...Abilene only scored 13 on UTEP (23 on Army) and Citadel only scored 14 on Eastern Kentucky (9 on Army). Army's 4 wins are vs teams with a combined 1-11 record (not counting the 4 losses Army handed them or else it would be 1-15!).
UTSA is allowing 17% capacity for fans, but due to proximity of local military bases, expect a good number of Army fans to be there.
I think this UTSA team has some confidence this season and Army is always a tough out, but they have rarely faced anyone even halfway decent this season. I can see UTSA's O finding success and the D has some potential to limit Army's O.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Notre Dame in its 3rd straight home game since 2005
Louisiana Tech :
is in a revenge loss situation, in conference, and a dog
Louisiana Tech :
is in a revenge loss situation, in conference, and a dog
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Traveling tomorrow night and all day Saturday so thought I would go ahead and post my weekly krazy-assed shit!
3, 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RRs:
Tulane +186
South Florida +327
Florida State +402
Kentucky +186
UTSA +246
UTEP +191
Louisiana Tech +317 for 1st Half
Risking $100.98 (99 parlays at $1.02) To Win $43,058.24
BOLTA!!
3, 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RRs:
Tulane +186
South Florida +327
Florida State +402
Kentucky +186
UTSA +246
UTEP +191
Louisiana Tech +317 for 1st Half
Risking $100.98 (99 parlays at $1.02) To Win $43,058.24
BOLTA!!
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
To be honest, I didn’t cap it. Was just too busy this week and now packing gotta go out of town tomorrow....my aunt passed away and going to the service and semi-family reunion this weekend. Good luck on your play !
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
condolences
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Thanks. She was loved by everyone in the family. She was one of those ladies that no one could ever say anything bad about.....just a jewel of a lady!
