Looking down the list for the first time, here are some I wouldn't be surprised with an upset:
Tulsa +218
A little hesitant on them. To a degree, I do feel they are not getting the results they deserve; not a stretch to say they could've won Texas, Ark St, Temple, Houston, but turnovers, missed FGs or too many FGs in the RZ. And after a while that is just who you become when you turn it over so often, can't score TDs in the RZ. While they are better than their 1-4 record, I don't have a ton of confidence trusting they won't suffer costly turnovers again. Not like USF is really that great. I would say they are better than Tulsa though. I mean I'm saying Tulsa has come up short in some games they could've won...USF found a way to win some games they should;ve lost to ILL and ECU.
Air Force +317
Some people will not want to touch AF off such a huge win vs Navy, and that is something true. However, remember that SDSt is also off a big win of their own. SDSt has owned the series and Rocky Long's success defending the option is well known. Alot of these games have been close....last 4 games: 2017 SDSt won 28-24. 2016 DNP. 2015 SDSt won just 27-24 (MWC Title game). 2014 SDSt won 30-14. 2013 SDSt won 27-20. And in 2017 and 2013 AF had bad teams and still were tight for this game. Both run Ds will be challenged here and AF has had surprising improvment year-over-year. SDSt is still pretty banged up group. Doubt I play this ML, just saying not shocked if they won.
Nebraska +176
Watching the Purdue and Wisconsin games there are things to like about Nebraska's O from both, they've shown they can run, 259 on Purdue and they've shown they can pass 407 on Wisconsin. The Corn D is bad however and NW is good enough, although Thorson has just a 6-5 TD-INT ratio this year (No TDs or INTs vs Pur or Mich). I would think that Neb O can do the same things they've done the last 2 weeks, just wonder if the D can play better. NW is rather limited on O, this will be the weakest O Corn D has played in several weeks, maybe all year (are Troy and NW O's equal?).
Tennessee +477
Vols played better than expected vs Georgia. Maybe Georgia didn't bring A game? Florida only outgained UT by 23y despite winning by 26pts (UT lost 6 TOs). Offense is the concern with the Vols vs Auburn D. I like the fact that Pruitt is off a bye, coached in the Iron Bowl and before that for Georgia annually against Auburn so think he has some unique familiarity with Auburn, but then again, maybe Tigers will have some familiarity vs him. Nobody has much love for Auburn right now, which is also concerning. Hate when everyone is running for the doors on a team and the spread is still over 2 TDs, kinda says something.
Vanderbilt +218
Florida improving each week. If the old expression holds true, this is going to be a tough spot for them situationally and emotionally off two, if not three very big games (Tennessee is down but still big rival, then Miss St and LSU games were bigger). Vandy played well for a half last week vs Georgia. Worry is how they played vs South Carolina a couple weeks ago however. Last home game for Dores until November 10th so think they will be as ready as they can be to try and get this one. Although Gators will probably have more fans there.
Duke +115
Everyone knows that Duke has already faced one option team this year even though that was vs Army breaking in a new QB for first game. Duke and Cutcliff's history vs option is strong. Duke isn't quite at full strength with Sr DT Cerenord, Sr DB McDuffie limited plus DBs Gilbert and Carter also out. Naturally would prefer them to be at full strength. GT comes in off confidence building wins vs BGSU and LV. No doubt the challenge will be tougher this week. Only problem for me? At current I see the line 2.5, that is the shortest line in this series since atleast 2007. GT has been favorites of 7, 6.5, 7.5, 3, 8.5, 10, 10.5, 13.5, 13.5, 13.5. Is this Duke team that much better, is this GT team that much worse? I don't know, would prefer some more bang for buck on this one.
Kent State +317
Kent ran into a buzz saw at Ball State, although they did cost themselves on a few self inflicted mistakes that teams in their young and transitioning position will do. Last week they shoulda, coulda, woulda beat perennial MAC power Ohio but allowed OU to take their first and only lead of the game with 1-1/2 minutes left. Miami's D is likely better than what Ohio has been fielding. Kent is a team that is hard to figure which week their good play will outweigh their bad play. Miami is getting some things figured out, 2-1 in MAC play and they won't play a home game again until Nov 7th so this is a must have for them as they try and compete for the East division.
Ball State +125
For whatever MAC homefield advantage is worth I guess you can favor Central Mich. But in terms of play on the field I don't see what justifies favoring them. CM D isn't bad when they play teams their own size ,but their O is really bad. Ball State has dropped a couple they coulda won (WKU and NIU). Cardinal does have some pieces, more pieces I think than CM does and I figure they should pull the W here.
Oregon +144
I like this Duck team, they should be 5-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs P5 had it not been for some late game misfortune vs Stanford in a game Oregon dominated. They bounced back for a solid win at Cal showing no hangover and rested off bye here. UW D is going to be big challenge for Ducks. On the same note, I think Oregon D is going to matchup well also. Washington has won the last two years by combined 103-31. I don't think those games are at all comparable to what we see Saturday. Herbert was out last year in Seattle and while Herbert doesn't play D, lack of any support from the O will hurt the D. And 2016 was Washington's fantastic CFB playoff year and Ducks were swirling the drain under Helfrich's last year. This should be a tough game.
Ohio +148
NIU is solid, play good D, but offensively is struggling a bit. Struggling vs Iowa, Utah and FSU is one thing. Struggling vs Central Mich, Eastern Mich and Ball State is another. Ohio looks like they are playing with 10 guys on defense at times, but Bobcat O is still outstanding and I think they should have enough success to move the ball and score on NIU. Question is can Ohio stop NIU?
Navy +215
Big gut check game for Navy kids entering here just 2-3 and off bad loss to Air Force. I don't expect academy kids to hang their heads very long. Can they out execute a good Temple D? Temple has won 2 straight vs Navy both as underdogs. Now they are TD road fav....weather assisted, but Navy did bounce back from disappointing loss at Hawaii to beat Memphis. Time for Navy to get off the mat and not that Temple would ever overlook a conference foe with Navy's pedigree, but wonder if talk of the game vs 5-0 Cincinnati next week has creeped in any of the conversations? Hard to not be impressed with how Temple has played the last couple weeks and throw in the Maryland win shows their potential when they bring the A game.
This has taken longer than I thought, will have to finish some other time.
ray:
Now i'm just a punching bag and it makes me look terrible. But at least I get to cover something college football instead of just baseball and the two sentences of NFL
