Week 7 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 7 Winners :
South Carolina +100
MTSU +130
Utah St +100
Texas +230
Northwestern +330
Pitt +150
Iowa St +335
Miami OH +180
San Diego St +415
Air Force +110
New Mexico +275
UAB +215
UTSA +100
Miss St +125
Arizona +102
Utah +165
Hawaii +150

+List is a little short this week, I left off the FCS teams this week.

Really enjoy the discussion we get gong every week!
A lot of info comes out of this thread each and every week.
Thanks again to all who contribute

@booksbestfriend & @RetroVK SMASHED it last week with their picks in the Week 6 thread!!

On to week 7, my goodness this season is flying by....

Lets find some winners this week!
 
Best performers this year (scoresandodds closing numbers)

BYU +331, +1098
Cincinnati +447, +105
Coastal Carolina +256, +125
Duke +130, +105
Hawaii +711, +384, +155
Kentucky +416, +292
Liberty +172, +222
LSU +317, +135
Middle Tennessee State +132, +130 (back-to-back weeks)
Pitt +148, +140
San Diego St +184, +367
Texas +120, +226
UAB +160, +215
Virginia Tech +262, +211
 
V Tech probably roughed up after dealing with very physical Irish D. Now @ UNC @carolinablue

Michigan (vs Wiscy) Miami (at Virginia) USC (v. undefeated Colorado) seem like too many points. Washington (at Ducks) could be anyone‘s game. Florida on let-down alert at Vandy. Will talk about Sparty/Penn State later
 
Ryno14 said:
Also like that Arkansas call @booksbestfriend
Click to expand...
Coming off Bana or LSU used to be an auto fade, due to how physical the D was. I don't get the same sense with the Bama D. Last year they tackled with bad intentions. Maybe Nick has coached to avoid the big hits because of the targeting rules, or maybe they aren't as physical as the recent past. Tide fans would be better suited to answer that. Either way, I saw a team that competed for 60 min. Yes, they got blown out. But, they continued to fight. Great job by Morris in coaching these young men. They are getting better.

Ole Miss, on the other hand is still porous on D. Just hoping Hogs can come up with a few stops.
 
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I just saw the Hawaii - BYU line - the hell has BYU done to be favored by 15 over a decent team? Assumption must be that McDonald is out til further notice. I guess young backup in first ever road start will be challenging. UH D seemed to play well vs WYO O. Fear would be BYU pass rush pressure and UH QB screws up a few times. Just a weird line to me. deadeyeduckie was talking about Cordeiro ingame thread. Kid has tools, just lacks live fire training.
 
s--k said:
I believe under Harbaugh Michigan is 5-8 vs Top 25.

I have bet UM the last 2 years vs Wisconsin. Last year was super frustrating and Peters got injured. 2 years ago I think they missed like 3 FGs that cost them the cover if memory serves.
Click to expand...

3 of his wins came in 2015 (vs #22 BYU ,vs #13 NW, bowl vs #19 Florida
1 win in 2016 vs #8 Wisconsin
1 win in 2017 vs #17 Florida

The 8 losses have come at the hands of Ohio St 3x, Florida St (bowl) Michigan St, Penn St, Wisconsin, Notre Dame

Another way to look at is they are 5-3 straight up when favored over top 25, 4-4 ATS.
 
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Ole Miss @ Arkansas: Yeah I'd recommend Arkansas be on everyone's card this weekend just based on previous game margins and site alone. Neutral site home teams that lost by more than 10pts previous game and facing a team that won by more than 47 in their previous game are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in SDQL database history. This is a very strong play IMHO. Look at the scores....even a 21pt dog won SU!! Pick: Arkansas +6 & ML

olemiss5.jpg
 
FWIW, here are my leans this week.

Texas Tech - Too many injuries to pull this off?

Nebraska - Huskers desperate, but do they have enough? NW is possible letdown, or do they remain focused at home?

Colorado has looked good this year and I would bet them instantly if this game were @ home. Can they win this one on the road?

Old Dominion
Iowa State
 
Now that the Sun Belt has two divisions this game isn't as big as it would've been say last year, but these are 2 of the top 3/4 teams in that league. Arkansas State has won 2 of the last 3 Conference Titles, they have that championship pedigree, being there having what it takes. They still have Justice Hansen and some dudes. Ark State lost at GaSouthern but that was misleading. App St rolled South Alabama, ok, Gardner Webb and Charlotte, ok. They haven't been challenged or tested since week 1. Ark St definitely played tougher schedule.

I'm just talking out loud here, sounds like I am taking Ark St tonight. ML? Hmmmmm....
 
They have a few good wins and home field in what is probably the longest trip in conference.

They lost last week to Southern. Now we are to expect GaSo to lay 3 score on a short week and long travel.

Can Tech get up to what I think is an overrated TCU.

SoFL on back to back.

What is SDSUs health? I know Rockey kills the option, but AF is not the same as Army and Navy.

Just some thoughts. I think a case can be made for each. I have a 13 point tease option on 4 teams. May tease them up and put a 10 spot on each. 2 hit and will be sitting on + money. Miss and it is .4*.
 
s--k said:
Now that the Sun Belt has two divisions this game isn't as big as it would've been say last year, but these are 2 of the top 3/4 teams in that league. Arkansas State has won 2 of the last 3 Conference Titles, they have that championship pedigree, being there having what it takes. They still have Justice Hansen and some dudes. Ark State lost at GaSouthern but that was misleading. App St rolled South Alabama, ok, Gardner Webb and Charlotte, ok. They haven't been challenged or tested since week 1. Ark St definitely played tougher schedule.

I'm just talking out loud here, sounds like I am taking Ark St tonight. ML? Hmmmmm....
Click to expand...

That's what I think I'm getting at with line action, it's like it doesn't matter.
 
For what it's worth, my SDQL research is showing Appy State as a really nice play and that's an understatement. But sometimes it's just not that easy. I have also not forgotten my friend The Parlay Picker's best plays are the weekday home conference dogs. He's normally on all of them from what I remember. The other thing is I have not quite gotten the hang of strength of schedule in my queries. Really tough and I'm not sure how to go about integrating that. So I'm not sure how the good SDQL numbers, I was seeing for this game, apply here. All you guys make good points, D8 is on them as well so what the hell!! Like I said earlier, Let's Roll!

PS - while I'm here, @s--k what's your thoughts on ECU this weekend? I know you got burnt by them last week and that tends to make folks hesitant backing them again. But there is still a road conference double-digit favorite with a terrible defense visiting Greenville this Saturday. I'm thinking this is the weekend to back them.
 
JROCK1966 said:
For what it's worth, my SDQL research is showing Appy State as a really nice play and that's an understatement. But sometimes it's just not that easy. I have also not forgotten my friend The Parlay Picker's best plays are the weekday home conference dogs. He's normally on all of them from what I remember. The other thing is I have not quite gotten the hang of strength of schedule in my queries. Really tough and I'm not sure how to go about integrating that. So I'm not sure how the good SDQL numbers, I was seeing for this game, apply here. All you guys make good points, D8 is on them as well so what the hell!! Like I said earlier, Let's Roll!

PS - while I'm here, @s--k what's your thoughts on ECU this weekend? I know you got burnt by them last week and that tends to make folks hesitant backing them again. But there is still a road conference double-digit favorite with a terrible defense visiting Greenville this Saturday. I'm thinking this is the weekend to back them.
Click to expand...
They rate to not only lose but get annihilated
 
Nebraska from 6.5 to 3.5 now. Loved them in this spot and think the uptempo makes them a good play. Might see if I can get +4 and lock in soon.
 
JROCK1966 said:
PS - while I'm here, @s--k what's your thoughts on ECU this weekend? I know you got burnt by them last week and that tends to make folks hesitant backing them again. But there is still a road conference double-digit favorite with a terrible defense visiting Greenville this Saturday. I'm thinking this is the weekend to back them.
Click to expand...

I've been out of town and haven't had a chance to think much about the games this week yet, as you can see I just decided to go in on Ark St over the course of 3 minutes.

I wouldn't be scared to back ECU again necessarily, I might wish they weren't playing a team like Houston though. I got humbled there last week, the thing that I overlooked, or underestimated was Temple's D. And I know Temple's D is good when they play teams their own size and caliber (or less) Temple's D is good. I was banking on the fact that ECU had played UNC and USF Ds so they had gone against some decent talent. But they were just overwhelmed obviously.

Houston is pretty overrated for sure. Thing about them is you never know how they are going to play. When they are "Right" ,UH is pretty damn good. When they are off, anyone can beat them. UH does have a record of dropping a game or two they shouldn't (loses at Tulsa and at Tulane last year as favs).

I know I had ECU in this game last year, I see they lost by 25, but I don't know what my line was or if I won or lost off hand. UH jumped out big early and then ECU came back to make it an 11 pt game before UH pulled away again. ECU outgained them but were -3 TOs.

Not sure right now, will have to think on it.
 
s--k said:
Ark St 1st H 50 to win 133
Ark St game 50 to win 159

Now I got to get some shit done so I can watch this game!
Click to expand...

Man those INTs sucked some balls. First one ruined the ATS 1st H cover, Second one prevented the backdoor 1st H cover. Fuck. Went from thinking it was possible to hit both, to just hitting the ATS then to not winning either...kind of a theme on these ML plays of mine of late.
 
s--k said:
Man those INTs sucked some balls. First one ruined the ATS 1st H cover, Second one prevented the backdoor 1st H cover. Fuck. Went from thinking it was possible to hit both, to just hitting the ATS then to not winning either...kind of a theme on these ML plays of mine of late.
Click to expand...
Feel for you man. That was a bad fuckin beat. Shoulda ended 9-7
 
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