Week 7 HAMMERS!!!!!

[HammersSpreads]

Season Record: 28-15 (65.12%)
Sides Record: 25-13 (65.79%)
Totals Record: 3-2 (60.00%)


MASTER Record: 3-3 (50.00%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-1 (0.00%)

2-4 Last Week
I'm still trying to figure out how that NIU/Kent St. game didn't go OVER the total. Thought I had the right side on Ole Miss, but didn't have it on Stanford....so I'll wash those sheets.


On to this lovely "lucky" Week 7!

SDSU Aztecs (-4) ----- MASTERED!!!!!
----- Very rarely do I bet a road team on a weeknight game. I actually hate to do it. I've done it twice this year, out of the 3 weeknight games I've played, & I've won both. Main reason is b/c of the team breakdowns/strengths/weaknesses that I think validate the bet. SDSU is starting to play much better football right now, while Air Force looks to be going in the opposite direction.
SDSU's offense has looked much better as the season has gone on, & now Muema is finally healthy (last week was the first week he was healthy & it showed to the tune of almost 200 total yards). SDSU loves running the ball, Air Force loves letting people run the ball. SDSU now has a QB finally, he he's playing very very well....& Air Force loves letting people throw the ball. The Falcons also boast the worst 3rd down defense in the NCAA, giving up 65%, which is almost 15% more than the next closest team.
Yes, Air Force is on their 3rd string QB. Yes Air Force is an option team. I have learned to pretty much bet a Rocky Long coached team when they play the triple option. Long's defense gives option teams fits, & even though The Aztecs defense hasnt been very good so far this year, they still are tops in the MWC in rushing D (it's their passing D that is suffering). Since long has been at SDSU, they have covered every game against a service academy team/triple option team, with his lone S.U. loss coming in 2009, when it was his 1st year on campus (when he was the D.C.).
The absolutely only thing that has me slightly worried about this game is that it is the Aztecs 3rd game in 13 days....meaning that it's their 2 straight game on short rest. However, I just think that the Aztecs are a much better team than Air Force is right now, & I dont think it's all that close either.

I should hopefully have the full card up Thursday. Still have some looking to do. Right now there is about 7 games I like.

 

[HammersSpreads]

OU/Texas

This is a game that people around Oklahoma get jacked for no matter how good the teams are. In the past I loved to see Texas lose every game, but now I just kind of think it is sad. Texas should be miles better than what they are now, & it's honestly killing the Big 12 when they are just an average team. Texas is in a state right now that needs a change, a new face. It's obvious that Mack Brown has lost it with this team. I have seen people on here say that Texas is going to come out & the players are going to give it their all in this game for Mack.....but in all honesty, if that was going to happen, I think it would have happened when they played Ole Miss. I think Mack has just lost his players along the road. This team gets all the recruits they want, & doesn't develop them. It's 2 things: 1. Coaching, & 2. not having the players to fit the system.
OU has done things differently than Texas. Bob Stoops didn't like how coaches were getting complacent, & he got rid of them. In the offseason he brought in a few new coaches....coaches with energy & toughness. & coaches that are good recruiters. When he made those changes, I knew Stoops wasn't planning on leaving OU anytime soon. They also don't have a bunch of 5 star, or even 4 star players for that matter. They have been getting guys that fit what they want to do & coaching them up. These new coaches have also brought a different attitude, & you can just feel it. I do not think OU is back to being an elite team yet, but I do think they have a mentality that they wont lose that 1 game that they should have won (like has been seen the last couple years). There's my opening rant....on to this game:

I have watched every OU game, & almost every Texas game this year. New Coach Bedenbaugh has brought a toughness back to OU's o-line, & they are back to running the football much better. Blake Bell has been fantastic, mainly b/c he hasn't made mistakes. He doesn't throw passes when he is about to get sacked, & doesn't try to force the ball under pressure. I have watched Texas defense get torched all year long along the defensive front. They have the horses to make plays, but they take plays off, they don't fill in their gaps, they just dont look very well coached.
Manny Diaz was a maniac. He should have been gone last year. Well the get rid of him, & in comes Robinson. Manny Diaz blitzed 90% of the time, & now under Robinson, Texas looks scared to blitz. It's a lot of man coverage....bring your d-line & man everyone else up. For the sake of Texas fans, & even for this game this weekend, I really hope they have been hiding something. If they think they can use that same gameplan of matching their LB's man-to-man against OU's RB's, then it could get real ugly, real fast. Texas' Santos & Edmunds look like 2 chubby guys that are slow & out of shape, & Iowa St torched them in the 2nd half. Santos was terrible at pursuing the ball, & neither of them have the speed to keep up w/ a RB. This is a clear sign of how much they miss Jordan Hicks. Texas has the d-line to cause pressure on their own, but the problem is they don't have enough time to get to the QB bc RB's are wide open from the snap of the ball. I fully expect Texas to come out & be a little more exotic, & if they don't then that is absolutely poor coaching. If Texas can show some different looks & confuse OU, then maybe they can make some big plays & force some TO's, but if they stay in that base defense, then I don't see any way they have success. I also will not be an ounce surprised to see OU bring in Trevor Knight or have some type of option package this game if they need it.

I could go off & talk about how bad Case McCoy is....but I wont, bc I dont think he has been that bad. He is by no means Colt, but i think these McCoy's have a clutch gene in them, bc Case has actually won a few games at the end.....even if he didn't play a pretty game. Texas hasn't had an identity on offense. Their identity should be to run the football, but for some reason they try to get cute & abandon it. I think it's b/c their o line does not have a tough mentality.....last week Iowa St was in the backfield half of the running plays, which absolutely floored me. OU is going to come at this offense w/ a bunch of different looks & stunts & twists, & I cant see how it wont be successful b/c Texas o line doesnt looks disciplined & doesn't look to have a leader to help call out these blocking schemes. Texas WR's are average....Mike Davis is good, but he is hobbled, & I don't think he is better than Aaron Colvin on the other side. An unsung hero for OU's defense has been rFr Zack Sanchez on the opposite side of Colvin as he looks like the real deal. If Texas doesn't pick up OU's blitzes, then McCoy could be in for a long day. Eric Striker has gotten better every game as a pass rushing OLB, & I've been shocked by it bc he still very light & needs to put on more pounds. Offenses have been gameplanning for him since week 2, & he has still been getting constant pressure. OU losing Cory Nelson will hurt them pretty badly in the long run, but I honestly dont think it will too much this game. Also, DT Jordan Phillips is supposed to play this weekend, but I dont know how effective he will be. Texas needs to come out & run the ball up the middle to see if they can have success against OU bc of these 2 vital injuries to the middle of their defensive front 7. On a side note, Jordan Phillips was hurt last weekend, & the defense still played lights out as the rotating DT's still controlled the LOS against TCU.

Bottom line, if Texas doesn't come out doing new things....showing new looks on defense, & trying to run the ball, then I don't see how this game is close at all. Both teams will be jacked for it, so emotion & home field is out the door. It's all about the X's & O's, & the execution on the field. So far this season, there has been no reason to not think OU should roll here. I am still undecided if I will place a bet on this game, i just wanted to give my 2 cents on it.

Good luck with what you bet.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL with SDST, bro...and whatever else you add.

 

[HammersSpreads]

I have no time for write ups. Sorry, just been jam busy lately

Buffalo -10
Rice ML (-113)
Boise St -5.5
Florida (+7.5) & ML
Ole Miss (+6.5) & ML
Bowling Green (+11) & ML


Strong Leans:
Baylor -17
Wazzou -2

All underdogs ML's are for around 1/4 unit.

BOL, GET MONEY & BOOMER SOONER!!!!!

 

[Play2win]

agree BG, BOL Hammer :cheers:

 

[Mags]

GL bro

 

[Schrute]

really enjoy the writeups you have time for. Great season so far and GL today

 

[s--k]

Good insight on OU/Horns. Late here, 1 hr to kick, but I'm playing Tex. I was not impressed by OU run D vs ND...and ND team that had shown no ability to run well. I also was concerned that OU only scored 20 last week and just 1 2nd half score. Just not sure OU is all that for DD fav. Tex is fading for sure, but if they have one shot left in the barrel it might get fired here. Any further thoughts?

 

[HammersSpreads]

Biggest concern I have for OU's defense is that Jordan Phillips and Cory Nelson are out. That's their 2 best players in the middle. So Texas should have success running if they have any guts

 

[HammersSpreads]

Baylor -17