Week 7 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
'14 REGULAR SEASON:


Season Record: 27-27-1 (50.00%)
Sides Record: 27-23-1 (54.00%)
Totals Record: 0-4 (0.00%)

Small Potatoes (<1u): 3-11 (21.43%)
on the REG: 19-13-1 (59.38%)

MASTERED Record (3u): 5-3 (62.25%)

HAMMERED Record (5u): 0-0 (0.00%)


ML Parlay: 3-5
DOG ML's (+200 or better): 6-7



Week 7 Plays:
SDSU (-3) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER


Baylor (-8) ----- MASTERED LOSER

ULM (+21.5) ----- REG LOSER

North Carolina (+17)hook ----- REG WINNER

UAB (-6.5) ----- REG WINNER

Central Michigan (+10)hook ----- REG WINNER

Tulane (-3) ----- REG WINNER

Texas A&M (-2.5) ----- REG LOSER

USC (-1) ----- MASTERED WINNER
USC (-2.5) ----- REG LOSER

N'western ML (+160) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER

Washington ML (+165) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER

ML Parlay (+113): WINNER
Stanford, OU, Clemson, Bama

 
Last edited:
Week 6 Review:

Florida ML (+130) ----- REG WINNER
Was a really good spot for Florida coming off a buttkicking & a bye week, while Tenn was coming off a big game against Georgia. Kinda feel bad for Driskel. WR's dropped 5 passes in the 1st half, & 2 of his 3 INT's weren't even his fault (1 of the 3 was awful). But definitely had to do a QB change b/c its obvious the team is not behind him at all. And now you come to this week where you have no choice but to throw him back out there b/c of the stuff going on w/ Treon Harris.....absolutely insane. Not looking good for the Gators this year I'd say. Anyway, Muschamp did a good job simplifying things for the young secondary which made it to where (coupled w/ a good pass rush) Tenn couldn't burn them deep really.

Old Dom (+17.5) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER
I despise you Marshall

Va Tech (-2.5) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER
Stupid me....I would have went bigger on this if the line would have just been -1 lol. Oh well.

Bama (-4.5) ----- MASTERED LOSER
It's amazing b/c 1 year ago I would have never thought to bet against Saban coming off a bye week & going up against a "Big Time" opponent/game.....in fact, it was an insta-bet. & now I don't think I have much desire to bet these situations at all. Outcoaching is what he has gotten the last few big games. They could have literally lined up under center & ran the ball into the endzone most of the game. But instead Kiffin likes to get cute & get a couple incompletions just for Saban to trot out a kicker for a long FG. The whole special teams was just embarrassing for Bama, in all phases. Good for Ole Miss & I'm glad they won, b/c if Bama would have won by 1pt then I may have thrown up.

South Bama (-3) ----- REGx2 WINNER
Oh course, wish I would have went bigger. Really the only thing keeping me away from it was that I was confused by the line. Knew it was way too low, but just thought myself out of it......it's obvious Vegas has not caught up with USA at all.

UL-Monroe (+12) ----- REG LOSER
UL-Monroe ML (+390) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER
Coaching adjustments.....some teams make them, some don't. ULM had their chances to take this game & never got anything going offensively against a pretty bad defense. Eventually ULM's defense just wore down.

Miami ML (+120) LOSER
Felt good about it after 1 half. Then Miami got butt-pounded in the 2nd half. I'm pretty sure Miami only had like 2 or 3 drives in the 2nd half....GT just ran down their throat & took up all the clock. Methodical.

LSU (+7.5) ----- REG LOSER
LSU ML (+255) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Pitt (+5) ----- REG PUSH IT....PU-PU-PU-PUSH IT REAL GOOD
Pitt ML (+180) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER
Suffered from getting a bad line....oh well. Pick 6 hurt, but Pitt never giving up helped. Chryst needs to understand that they are not going to win throwing the football, as bad as it sounds. Side note: the 1 RSW bet I decided to keep off my preseason wagers was UVA O 3.5 wins.....man it would have been nice to have that cashed by Week 7. Good for them, beat my head against the wall, but good for them.

UAB (+9.5) ----- REG WINNER
UAB ML (+305) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER
Another team Vegas hasn't caught up to.....& a lot of value/over-reaction to their game the week before. I am really confused by the line this week w/ them as well....that looks loooooow. Again, half time adjustments.....some coaches make them, some dont. & Bill Clark is showing his coaching wheels off so far this year. Great adjustments, & UAB could have won by much more if they will ever learn and understand Ball Security. That is by far the biggest wild card w/ this team b/c they continue to turn the ball over too much, and in critical spots.

Boise St (-4) ----- REGx2 WINNER
Wish I would have went bigger again on this one. Nevada crapped themselves the 1st half, Boise crapped themselves the 2nd half. So kinda evened out. Nevada got exposed a bit, & it's obvious that Boise is not near the level they have been (which I love). 1 thing is for sure....the MWC does not have that dominant team this year, and it's wiiiiiide open. If my Aztecs had a damn QB then I would feel good about their chances.

ML Parlay (+153) LOSER
Ohio St, Clemson, UTSA, ULL, La Tech
Oh goooooood lord UTSA. Would have never thought a team that should be so disciplined would lose like that. The wheels have fallen off the last 2 weeks for the Meep-Meeps.


Lost just a bit this week. Still trying to find that nice groove & get on a run. Hopefully this is the time. For the 2nd out of 3 weeks, I had 3 games I really really liked & only went big 1 on of them. That 1 lost, the other 2 won.
This last week was one of the best I can remember for college football. Just shows that it's fantastic, & I don't think it's going to end anytime soon this year. A lot of teams are gonna beat up on each other IMO, & I won't be surprised if even 2 teams that make it into the Final Four have 2 losses.

There are a lot of "must plays" for me this week. I have some digging to do, but here is a little list of either "must plays" or just games I like period so far:

"Must Plays" (doesn't mean I'll play them, just love the situation/spot)
OU -14 (maybe)
Baylor -10
UNC +16.5
A&M -3
USC -2.5

Likey (at first glance)
UAB -4
N'Western +3
Central Mich +10.5

Back to the grind ladies.
 
I'll go ahead & put some write-ups in on some heavy leans right now, b/c I know i wont have time to later in the week.
Lots of games that are really good situational/scheduling spots this week...just a matter of figuring out which ones warrant plays & which dont.


Baylor/TCU
I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the Big 12 this year, & this will be a game I most likely go big on. Last week I thought TCU would be OU's only loss of the year....many reasons for this. Home game for TCU, of course. The schedule going into the game favored TCU pretty heavily....they had played not much of anyone, & in the OU game were able to show A LOT of things they hadn't through the 1st 4 games of the year, whereas OU (even though coming off a bye) is in the middle of their hardest 4/5 game stretch of the year. TCU's defense also matches up with OU (and probably most anyone) real well, especially since OU doesn't have any other WR right now that Trevor Knight trusts. Also I thought TCU (& WVU) would be vastly improved this year.
I did not bet Baylor last week, I thought the number was probably really good & thought there was a good chance they wouldn't cover (which I don't think they really should have). I put almost ZERO stock into what happened last week against Texas. Baylor is not even the same team on the road as they are at home. Look at this year so far & can even look at last year in almost every single game. On top of that they literally did next to nothing creative offensively. Just went with the motions & took what Texas gave them. As naive and stupid as it may sound, I put pretty much no stock into what Baylor did last week, & I put all stock in the fact they are a completely different team at home.
Which brings us to this game. It is a horrible spot for TCU, although I expect Patterson to do his best to get his boys focused. TCU's defense will most likely limit Baylor's some....but I fully expect the Bears to get theirs. Last year the Bears still put up 41 on TCU, and TCU did give up 31 to OU last week through 2.5qtrs. OU got outcoached & got completely away from their game plan the 2nd half offensively, and I don't expect Briles to do that at all. Furthermore, while OU was passing the ball numerous times last week in the 2nd half (which I have no idea why), Knight had WR's running wide open but didn't throw that way b/c he's too zoned in on Shepard. I do not expect Petty to do that....I believe TCU's defense can be had, & Petty has a full arsenal of WR's to throw to that he trusts. As for TCU's offense this week.....they showed numerous things they hadn't yet in the season last week. OU had a bad gameplan 1st half (and were probably surprised) & shaped it up in the 2nd. Baylor should have a much better idea of what TCU wants to do & how to contain Boykin. TCU's offense runs completely through Boykin....if he gets hurt, they are in trouble. OU was scared to blitz him last week b/c of his legs, which left him way too comfortable. I expect Phil Bennett to bring some pressure to test how he can preform under heat, and also spy him w/ all that speed Baylor has. Not to mention....Baylors front 4 are very, very good so Baylor may not even need blitzing too much?
TCU is much improved this year, & I figured they would win about 9 games. I still believe that, & I welcome the line movement down b/c maybe there is some over reaction to last weeks games? Regardless, I'm pretty confident Baylor will win this one by 2+ TD's.
 
UNC/ND
This game reminds me a lot of 2 weeks ago when I backed Wazzou against Utah.....MASSIVE sandwich game. Now, I'm sure Brian Kelly is telling his team to keep focused b/c of what happened last week across the nation, but still....these are college kids here so anything is possible. ND after a Stanford game where they had to come back to win in the last minute and w/ FSU on deck, against a UNC team that has looked like turds. It's ballsy backing a team that has a defense of a high school JV team, but I also think UNC can gather enough offense in this game to cover given the circumstances. This is around the time of year last year where Fedora got his team to start playing as one & they put it all together on the field, so maybe the Heels are inching closer to that. Not saying UNC will win this game (although i may put a tiny amount on the ML for the hell of it), but with this spot being awful for ND, & UNC having a competent offense, I really like them to keep it close. Another tid-bit....if you look back on how teams fair the following week after playing Stanford....it's not real good ATS. Probably b/c of the physical nature of the games that they play, but even this year teams are 0-2 ATS and both lost the games straight up, as they were favored.
 
USC/Zona
I guess I'll most likely be paying to see if Zona can make me a believer as I like USC to win here. Massive upset last week, & Zona is cruising along. USC off a hail mary loss where the DB's looked like retards. Anyhow, USC's defense has been sporadic at best.....solid 1 week, garbage the next. I'll call for them to be a little better this week, as they are still fairly healthy & they have skill all over the field. They did hold Mannion to under 200yds passing....then gave up 500 to ASU, oops. I was stoked for Zona last week, & they may be the real deal...Rich Rod is very sexy right now. But the Cats can still be passed on, & I think USC's talent & skill will prevail. I don't like to harp too much games of the past, but I have a hard time looking past Zona luck-boxing into a win against Cal (at home) & having Nevada take them down to the wire (at home). Seems like a good game for USC to put back together a solid performance against a team that is coming off a massive upset victory. Also.....a frosh QB & frosh RB playing with a decent amount of hype on their shoulders now. While they have been very good in crunch time this year, it'll be interesting to see how they respond this weekend.
 
CMU/NIU
NIU is not near the team that they were the last couple years. Kinda bummed that they played Kent St so close b/c it prob takes some value off of this game. Regardless, I don't think that was necessarily a "fluke" what happened last week in Dekoub. NIU is still shuffling QB's, & hopefully Enos can devise something to slow their run game down as much as possible. I would be foolish to say that they will completely eliminate it & I'm sure NIU will have plenty of success on the ground, but I am HOPEFUL that CMU will be able to slow it down enough. If NIU has to pass then they should be in trouble, & the Chips have a veteran defense that has seen this offense before, so maybe that should help.
The Chips are a COMPLETELY different team w/ Rawls & Young back in the line up. The offense is the best since Enos has been here IMO when these guys are healthy, & the proof is in the pudding. Lost to Cuse & Kansas w/o both in the line up, & lost to Toledo (who is the best MAC team IMO) w/o WR Young. However, against all other competition when both are healthy they have been humming. Rawls just put up 200+ against a pretty good Ohio run defense. NIU's defense has been very good this year, & they may have the cure for CMU's offense, but I'm not a believer in the Huskies right now. I see much more weaknesses than years past. So with a healthy Rawls & Young, I think there is great value here against a Northern Ill team that has owned the MAC. Last time NIU lost at home was 4 years ago...............against the Mighty Chips. Go Chips!!!

UAB/North Texas
Much like South Bama, I just don't think vegas has UAB figured out yet. I don't think they realize that they are actually a pretty good team.
Worries: if UAB are going to be too high after their upset win last week. Also, UAB loves to turn the ball over. & UNT is pretty good at taking the ball from offenses.
However, I've watched both teams this year. UNT usually has a good defense, but it also seemed based on the type of offense they are playing. UNT has struggled mightily against teams that can move it fast & spread them out. So I think UAB should have much success against the Mean Green offensively. As for UNT's offense, they have no true identity. While UAB has been giving up many points this year, large part of that can be credited to their offense being careless & putting the defense in bad situations. UNT is bringing a frosh QB on the road & I would expect for them to run the ball w/ him & the RB's to keep UAB off the field. Basically, in the end I don't think North Texas can keep up here. Furthermore, UNT is much like Baylor....they are completely opposite at home vs away. McCarthey has brought some home field dominance the last few years, but not so much on the road. McCarthey is a hell of a coach & that part worries me, but I also love what Bill Clark is doing at UAB & think they will cruise in this game.

ULM/Kentucky
Huge win last week for Kentucky & @ LSU on deck. 3 TD's is a lot of points to be giving here in this situation. I'm still pretty certain that the Warhawks are a decently good team, although they had nothing clicking offensively last week. Kentucky could be down here, & I'll have to pay to see this team who is young & not used to success be able to put together another good game after a huge win last week & a look ahead upcoming. Warhawks defense has been awfully salty this year too, & if Pete Thomas can get going a little bit then I think this one could end up fairly close.

N'Western/Minny
The Cats are finally getting it figured out & I'm not sold on Minny. Wish I would have bet the Cats against Penn St as I had a strong lean on them, but certainly didn't expect the win they had last week. So ya, there could be a let down here. Biggest concern is if NW's defense is worn down from Melvin Gordan last week....b/c all Minny will do is run run & run. So if the Cats are beat down on the front 7 from last week, then this could be AAAHHHHHHH City. However, I just feel like I'll probably have to back the Cats who I think are a better overall team then the Gophers. & even though their numbers defensively don't show it from last week, I like what they have on the d-line. Gotta still take the value on N'Western while it's still here for the taking.
 
Additional thoughts, but probably wont play:

OU/Texas
I think OU rolls this weekend. I don't expect to see a tenditive defensive gameplan like was seen last week against TCU, and that Texas will turn the ball over. I believe the O-line for OU will be pissed & come out w/ a very, very solid game b/c they missed some critical blocks last week. & I'll even go as far to say that I think Trevor Knight actually starts looking for other WR's than Shepard.

I also wont be an ounce surprised if Texas Tech beats West Virginia this weekend


I'll be back if I can get any more write ups in & I'll post when I actually lock these biatches in.
 
Baylor (-8) ----- MASTERED

ULM (+21.5) ----- REG

North Carolina (+17)hook ----- REG

UAB (-6.5) ----- REG

Central Michigan (+10)hook ----- REG

Tulane (-3) ----- REG

Texas A&M (-2.5) ----- REG

USC (-2.5) ----- REG


ML Parlay (+113):
Stanford, OU, Clemson, Bama



Probably my most confident ML Parlay of the year so far. I'll most likely have a couple more plays...N'Western & Washington possibly. Also might add to a couple of these game....UAB & USC most likely.

BOL Gang. I'll probably be back by to add a bit.
 
Welcome to the thread bull!! Always appreciate ya stopping by.


SDSU -3 ----- Small Potatoes
i have to pay to see this. Rocky longs defenses specialize in stopping the option game. SDSU in must win situation. Should be able to run at will here. Also, Kaehler is warming up and looking good...so if the true frosh QB doesn't start well then I won't be surprised to to see Kaehler actually play.
 
Did you master Baylor because it dropped to 8? Just curious cuz some good people are on TCU @ +10.5. I do follow your picks so again just curious. Thanks
 
Schrute - you do the same please! Keep neutering it!

jimmy - hate being against ya with any plays. But at least one of us will win this one. BOL buddy!

Cruse - I feel better under 10pts of course with Baylor, but I think they still cover 10.5. I rarely make a bet thinking that it will only win by 1 or 2 pts. Of course that doesn't really matter bc some times things in games don't go as you plan. Regardless, I think a whole lot of public money and some sharps even has came in on TCU this week and rightfully so bc of both of these teams outcome from last week AND the perceived great value at over 10pts. But the worst thing to do when gambling is to look at the transitive property. I have a whole mound of reasoning to why I love Baylor this week that I could go into deep detail with. Anyway, it's probably my most confident wager of the year so far (although that doesn't mean it's a winner by any means) and that's a lot coming from a guy that really doesn't like to lay over a TD pts in most games lol
 
"transitive property"! I have seen those 2 words put together in gambling context so it must be a winner! GL Mr Mastered
 
Ha ha ha seems to be a fitting term. Thanks cruse.

SDSU with 4 turnovers on 6 snaps....that's gotta be some type of record???


N'Western ML (+160) ----- Small Potatoes

Washington ML (+165) ----- Small Potatoes

note: Both these plays I'll call Small, but they are 0.7u to win 1.15u
 
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