BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Seahawks@Rams
Since Pete Carroll took over as coach of the Hawks, these 2 teams have gone 7-1 to Under (30.37 ppg) in their 8 meetings, with the Rams averaging 12.0 ppg (10.25 ppg @home). Over these 8 meetings the losing team has never scored more than 13 pts (SEA 2 losses & STL 6). So immediately the HtH stats between these 2 teams points strongly to an Under. This is further backed up by a defensive bounce back trend that applies for the Hawks in this game. In losing to the Cowboys, the Hawks conceded 30 pts.
Since Carroll took over as coach, here's what the Hawks numbers look like playing off a game in which they conceded 20+ pts, and subsquently facing an NFC opponent:
2010-11 & 2011-12
ATS ..... 7-3
O/U ..... 7-3
PPGA ... 22.30
Since 2012-13
ATS ..... 7-1
O/U ..... 2-6
PPGA ... 12.50
Under Carroll, the Hawks have from day 1 consistently shown up ATS off a poor (by their standards) defensive effort. But since 2012, that ATS consistency has been accompanied by a noticable improvement in their defensive efforts. So, off conceding 30 pts to the Boys, they're in a spot where over the last 2 & a bit seasons they've conceded barely more than 12 pts - all but what the Rams individually have averaged against them since Carroll arrived at the helm.
Just to note: the reason why I singled out their playing an NFC opp. off such an outing, and not included AFC opponents is for the following reason (which I expand on here because beyond this particular game it's watching out for in the weks to come) -
2010-11 & 2011-12: points conceded
vs. AFC
19 pts or less ....... 2 ..... 25.0% rate
20 pts or more ..... 6
vs. NFC
19 pts or less ....... 11 ... 42.3% rate
20 pts or more ..... 15
Since 2012-13: points conceded
vs. AFC
19 pts or less ....... 5 ..... 45.4% rate
20 pts or more ..... 6
vs. NFC
19 pts or less ....... 23 ... 74.1% rate
20 pts or more ..... 8
Where the Hawks defense has shown a significant improvement in restricting NFC sides to 19 pts or less since the 2012-13 season, they're still putting in subpar efforts by comparison against AFC teams (indeed, their prior rate from their 'bad defensive era' vs. NFC teams is almost identical to their current rate from their 'good defensive era' vs. AFC teams). These 2 teams have played twice @STL with the Hawks in this spot of having conceded 20+ pts in their previous game: Once in the 2010-11/11-12 period (Rams won 20-3), and once since 2012 (Hawks won 14-9 on MNF).
The Hawks being off a SU loss here would be my one concern with playing the FG Under, since the only Over between these 2 teams w/Carroll as coach was a Hawks 30-13 win @STL in late 2011. The typical kind of game where the quality team with a bee in its bonnet delivers the Over almost entirely by themselves: with only a 42.5 line in this seemingly new era of higher scoring, it can hardly be ruled out. If I could, I'd opt for the Rams TT Under, but I don't have the option. So I'm on the fence between FG Under & Hawks ATS, and I hate being on the fence (you choose 1, and it's doubly bad news if you lose & the non-pick wins), so I'll prob. end up not betting.
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Oh, in the Carroll era the Hawks are 3-1-1 ATS & 4-1 to Over (25.40 ppga) on the road off a home loss. The kicker is that every one of those games comes before the 2012-13 season (which means they all precede that significant improvement in the Hawks defense).
Since Pete Carroll took over as coach of the Hawks, these 2 teams have gone 7-1 to Under (30.37 ppg) in their 8 meetings, with the Rams averaging 12.0 ppg (10.25 ppg @home). Over these 8 meetings the losing team has never scored more than 13 pts (SEA 2 losses & STL 6). So immediately the HtH stats between these 2 teams points strongly to an Under. This is further backed up by a defensive bounce back trend that applies for the Hawks in this game. In losing to the Cowboys, the Hawks conceded 30 pts.
Since Carroll took over as coach, here's what the Hawks numbers look like playing off a game in which they conceded 20+ pts, and subsquently facing an NFC opponent:
2010-11 & 2011-12
ATS ..... 7-3
O/U ..... 7-3
PPGA ... 22.30
Since 2012-13
ATS ..... 7-1
O/U ..... 2-6
PPGA ... 12.50
Under Carroll, the Hawks have from day 1 consistently shown up ATS off a poor (by their standards) defensive effort. But since 2012, that ATS consistency has been accompanied by a noticable improvement in their defensive efforts. So, off conceding 30 pts to the Boys, they're in a spot where over the last 2 & a bit seasons they've conceded barely more than 12 pts - all but what the Rams individually have averaged against them since Carroll arrived at the helm.
Just to note: the reason why I singled out their playing an NFC opp. off such an outing, and not included AFC opponents is for the following reason (which I expand on here because beyond this particular game it's watching out for in the weks to come) -
2010-11 & 2011-12: points conceded
vs. AFC
19 pts or less ....... 2 ..... 25.0% rate
20 pts or more ..... 6
vs. NFC
19 pts or less ....... 11 ... 42.3% rate
20 pts or more ..... 15
Since 2012-13: points conceded
vs. AFC
19 pts or less ....... 5 ..... 45.4% rate
20 pts or more ..... 6
vs. NFC
19 pts or less ....... 23 ... 74.1% rate
20 pts or more ..... 8
Where the Hawks defense has shown a significant improvement in restricting NFC sides to 19 pts or less since the 2012-13 season, they're still putting in subpar efforts by comparison against AFC teams (indeed, their prior rate from their 'bad defensive era' vs. NFC teams is almost identical to their current rate from their 'good defensive era' vs. AFC teams). These 2 teams have played twice @STL with the Hawks in this spot of having conceded 20+ pts in their previous game: Once in the 2010-11/11-12 period (Rams won 20-3), and once since 2012 (Hawks won 14-9 on MNF).
The Hawks being off a SU loss here would be my one concern with playing the FG Under, since the only Over between these 2 teams w/Carroll as coach was a Hawks 30-13 win @STL in late 2011. The typical kind of game where the quality team with a bee in its bonnet delivers the Over almost entirely by themselves: with only a 42.5 line in this seemingly new era of higher scoring, it can hardly be ruled out. If I could, I'd opt for the Rams TT Under, but I don't have the option. So I'm on the fence between FG Under & Hawks ATS, and I hate being on the fence (you choose 1, and it's doubly bad news if you lose & the non-pick wins), so I'll prob. end up not betting.
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Oh, in the Carroll era the Hawks are 3-1-1 ATS & 4-1 to Over (25.40 ppga) on the road off a home loss. The kicker is that every one of those games comes before the 2012-13 season (which means they all precede that significant improvement in the Hawks defense).
