Week 7 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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THURSDAY

Pittsburgh -5.5 and 43.5 @ Cincy


SUNDAY

LA Rams -3 and 45 @ Jacksonville

Kansas City -12 and 45.5 vs Las Vegas

Cleveland -3 and 39.5 vs Miami

New England -7.5 and 42 @ Tennessee

Chicago -5 and 47 vs New Orleans

Philadelphia -1 and 43.5 @ Minnesota

Carolina -2 and 41.5 @ NY Jets

LA Chargers -1.5 and 48 vs Indianapolis

Denver -6.5 and 40.5 vs NY Giants

Washington -1 and 55 @ Dallas

Green Bay -6.5 and 44 @ Arizona


SUNDAY NIGHT

San Francisco -2.5 and 47 vs Atlanta


MONDAY NIGHT

Detroit -5.5 and 52.5 vs Tampa Bay

Seattle -3.5 and 40.5 vs Houston
 
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The biggest part of the handicapping right now is keeping up on injuries...

Mash units out there for many teams!

Going right to next Monday night -- Detroit is down several on defense. This will be quite the test with Baker at QB and a very good Bucs team. Yes, Tampa has several offensive guys hurt but never discount Mayfield. Huge game within the conference that could be a potential tiebreaker down the stretch. Detroit sure could use this win going into the bye. After the bye, they play Minnesota at home before heading East to face Washington and Philly. This game is HUGE. With that being said, I am not laying points here at all. I can see Detroit trying to play some ball control like the 1h in KC. They need to possess the ball a lot here. Keep that in mind with regard to totals.

The SNF game is intriguing. The Falcons are a team I think can continue to ascend this season, despite their coach. We'll see how they react to a 2nd straight primetime game.

The Rams laying a FG on the road, most likely without Puka is interesting to me. What am I missing here?

The Eagles certainly have been stewing for 10 days once they kick off in Minnesota. The defense is a concern here, no doubt. They'll need to create pressure vs a fragile Minnesota OL. The Vikes are off a split overseas (nice late-game win vs Cleveland) and had a week off. Both QBs are dinged up for Minnesota. I'd imagine neither finishes the season behind the OL. Short line here IF you think Philly has the goods to be the Eagles of old.

The Chargers and Colts being this big of a game in October was not on my bingo card -- at least the Colts end of things. The bottom line is this -- Indy keeps winning games. The Chargers' OL injuries halted some of their offensive momentum, but they still sit at 4-2 and in first place. We'll see what the Minter defense has for the high-scoring Colts!

The high total in Dallas is no surprise. The only thing that gives me pause on overs here is the ball control offense of Washington. That being said, we should see some big plays to negate that.

Who would have thought the Patriots would be laying over a TD on the road this year? The FIRST PLACE Patriots!

Thoughts this week? Does anyone have a really good injury report to share? Clear and concise.
 
The Falcons STB last time they had a big primetime win when getting rolled by Carolina. I just don't trust that staff on a really short week for them. Maybe that's a good thing. Less time to screw things up.

Det -5.5 seems steep.
 
B.A.R. said:
The biggest part of the handicapping right now is keeping up on injuries...

Mash units out there for many teams!

Going right to next Monday night -- Detroit is down several on defense. This will be quite the test with Baker at QB and a very good Bucs team. Yes, Tampa has several offensive guys hurt but never discount Mayfield. Huge game within the conference that could be a potential tiebreaker down the stretch. Detroit sure could use this win going into the bye. After the bye, they play Minnesota at home before heading East to face Washington and Philly. This game is HUGE. With that being said, I am not laying points here at all. I can see Detroit trying to play some ball control like the 1h in KC. They need to possess the ball a lot here. Keep that in mind with regard to totals.

The SNF game is intriguing. The Falcons are a team I think can continue to ascend this season, despite their coach. We'll see how they react to a 2nd straight primetime game.

The Rams laying a FG on the road, most likely without Puka is interesting to me. What am I missing here?

The Eagles certainly have been stewing for 10 days once they kick off in Minnesota. The defense is a concern here, no doubt. They'll need to create pressure vs a fragile Minnesota OL. The Vikes are off a split overseas (nice late-game win vs Cleveland) and had a week off. Both QBs are dinged up for Minnesota. I'd imagine neither finishes the season behind the OL. Short line here IF you think Philly has the goods to be the Eagles of old.

The Chargers and Colts being this big of a game in October was not on my bingo card -- at least the Colts end of things. The bottom line is this -- Indy keeps winning games. The Chargers' OL injuries halted some of their offensive momentum, but they still sit at 4-2 and in first place. We'll see what the Minter defense has for the high-scoring Colts!

The high total in Dallas is no surprise. The only thing that gives me pause on overs here is the ball control offense of Washington. That being said, we should see some big plays to negate that.

Who would have thought the Patriots would be laying over a TD on the road this year? The FIRST PLACE Patriots!

Thoughts this week? Does anyone have a really good injury report to share? Clear and concise.
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Not kidding on the injuries. Been brutal. Been doing well on 3t 10pt and 2t 6pt teasers. I rarely even try straight bets.

My donk take on things;

Rams game is in London. Rams defense may be able to win game without Puca. Jags scored 12 at home vs Hawks who I think were still missing some DBs. Lawrence makes some really bad passes at times

So many injuries. Baltimore Cincinnati SF LAC Detroit Buffalo NYG and more. Really opens SB up.

I played KC under 11.5 but I think they may start rolling. Worthy Rice now both back. Relatively healthy. Not confident with my bet even with them at 3 3. If Jones is ok I see them going to SB now.

Baker is my mvp so far. TB lot of injuries too but he keeps winning. Ebueka out now??

Philly obviously not playing great. GB so so. Parsons doing little so far. Just so wide open. Whoever stays healthy.
 
Holy shit Reno whatever you did made my laptop resize the screen due to your font. Never seen that before. Very Uugge.
 
Personal take is the amount of injuries has gotten past that point that pregame wagers are more difficult than ever. If there was ever a reason to bet live it's NFL injuries. Taking dogs pregame makes sense because it's likely they'll be hurt less by injury than favorites.
 
lvmike32 said:
Not kidding on the injuries. Been brutal. Been doing well on 3t 10pt and 2t 6pt teasers. I rarely even try straight bets.

My donk take on things;

Rams game is in London. Rams defense may be able to win game without Puca. Jags scored 12 at home vs Hawks who I think were still missing some DBs. Lawrence makes some really bad passes at times

So many injuries. Baltimore Cincinnati SF LAC Detroit Buffalo NYG and more. Really opens SB up.

I played KC under 11.5 but I think they may start rolling. Worthy Rice now both back. Relatively healthy. Not confident with my bet even with them at 3 3. If Jones is ok I see them going to SB now.

Baker is my mvp so far. TB lot of injuries too but he keeps winning. Ebueka out now??

Philly obviously not playing great. GB so so. Parsons doing little so far. Just so wide open. Whoever stays healthy.
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Of course I forgot that was in London. This is the Jags fergodsakes!
 
Difficult card against the spread this week, some totals look much more juicy.

Teams favored 5-6 points this season are 9-4 ATS so far. 5.5 always felt like a good favorite play....like the books are saying yeah you should win the game by 7 but there are enough suckers out there we don't need to give that many.

Tomlin has a dismal Thursday night record on the road, he hasn't won a road Thursday nighter since his first season in 2007 against a 3-13 Rams team in late December. Steelers have not beaten a divisional opponent in Thursday night road game since the merger, going 0-8. He was complaining in his weekly press conference about the Browns trading Flacco within the division. Sounds a little bit a'scared.

Rams favored despite Puka being out looks like the NBA man-down factor. They do get after the QB well.

Panthers as a favorite against anyone seems weird. Jets have a man-down game with Wilson out.

Eagles lost to Nix and Dart and have been hearing it for two weeks now. Now they get either Wentz or McCarthy. Feels like a better spot for them.

KC gets Rashee back and will be at full strength for the first time this year. But 11-12 is a really big number for a division game.

Do you think Vrabel wants to gut the Titans this week? I do. I think they leave the foot on the gas long than usual.

Miami-Cleveland, yuk Browns as favorites, double yuk. But they have the defense and running game to control this.

Saints have been OK but this is another one of those 5-6 spreads. Saints have lost games by 5, 6 and 7 this year, but they were all at home. Bears on the short week but at least they are at home, and holy cow they've won 3 straight against better teams.

Chargers have been struggling to beat the Miami's of the world and now they're favored against 5-1 Indy? Something doesn't smell right.

Giants go into Denver with a surprising rest advantage. Seven seems like a lot right now.

Washington gets a short week road game but they might get McLauriin back. Cowboys might have the golden Lamb back. Both teams come off disappointing losses. Need to stew on this one more. I wouldn't dare bet a Cowboys under, but both teams look like they can be run on, which might damper that 55 total.

Atlanta also has a short week road game. There was a time when the NFL tried to avoid this. Niners may just get healthy enough for this one.

Baker has been terrific but who will he throw to? If they could only have one of their three WRs, I guarantee they wouldn't be wishing for it to be Evans. Lions will be hungry after getting run over by the Chiefs.

Houston/Seattle starts at 10:00 pm on Monday, wtf? This has all the makings of a defensive struggle, there two Ds are that good.
 
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Seems like a get it back fave:public week….
Treading light and may play the bizarre lines.

I really think Vrabel gets in that ass…
 
Sounds like both Turpin and Lamb are on pace to play Sunday.

Dallas overs have been an auto play for me but 55 is a bit steep this weekend. Bet it will cash regardless.
 
Rams not landing in London until Saturday. The latest any team has arrived for an overseas game. Not sure what the thought process is here for the Rams. I suppose try to get a pretty normal week of practice, but that seems rough not having time to acclimate
 
Rams 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Jags 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Chiefs: 5-1 Under 1st quarter, 6-0 4th quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Saints: 0-6ats 1st quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Patriots: 5-1 Over 1st half

Titans: 1-5ats 1st quarter

Panthers: 6-0ats 4th quarter

Cardinals: 5-1ats 1st quarter

Cowboys 6-0 Over 1st half

Niners 5-1 under 1st quarter

Bucs 6-0 3rd quarter

Texans 5-0 4th quarter

*source VSIN FTM.
 
C-MAN said:
Rams not landing in London until Saturday. The latest any team has arrived for an overseas game. Not sure what the thought process is here for the Rams. I suppose try to get a pretty normal week of practice, but that seems rough not having time to acclimate
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www.cbssports.com

Rams have an unusual travel plan for London game that no NFL team has ever attempted

The Rams will be arriving in London barely 24 hours before kickoff
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

They spent the week in Maryland and left last night (Friday).

Presumably sleep on plane - if they are anything like me they could sleep most of the way.

Land on Saturday a.m. London time and spend a fairly 'regular day' time wise. Exercise, relax, nap and eat.

Hopefully sleep a little late Sunday (if they can) and get up eat/chill go to stadium and play at 2:30 pm London time.

These guys are young and althletic and maybe this makes sense?

I had to make similar trips for work. I much preferred this schedule than getting there 2 days before but who knows?
 
C-MAN said:
Rams not landing in London until Saturday. The latest any team has arrived for an overseas game. Not sure what the thought process is here for the Rams. I suppose try to get a pretty normal week of practice, but that seems rough not having time to acclimate
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That's wildly interesting. Thanks for noting this.
 
bones said:
www.cbssports.com

Rams have an unusual travel plan for London game that no NFL team has ever attempted

The Rams will be arriving in London barely 24 hours before kickoff
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

They spent the week in Maryland and left last night (Friday).

Presumably sleep on plane - if they are anything like me they could sleep most of the way.

Land on Saturday a.m. London time and spend a fairly 'regular day' time wise. Exercise, relax, nap and eat.

Hopefully sleep a little late Sunday (if they can) and get up eat/chill go to stadium and play at 2:30 pm London time.

These guys are young and althletic and maybe this makes sense?

I had to make similar trips for work. I much preferred this schedule than getting there 2 days before but who knows?
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Hmmm.
 
pressitup said:
Rams 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Jags 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Chiefs: 5-1 Under 1st quarter, 6-0 4th quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Saints: 0-6ats 1st quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Patriots: 5-1 Over 1st half

Titans: 1-5ats 1st quarter

Panthers: 6-0ats 4th quarter

Cardinals: 5-1ats 1st quarter

Cowboys 6-0 Over 1st half

Niners 5-1 under 1st quarter

Bucs 6-0 3rd quarter

Texans 5-0 4th quarter

*source VSIN FTM.
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I think the wildest one here to me is Texans 4th quarters to the over.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Sounds like both Turpin and Lamb are on pace to play Sunday.

Dallas overs have been an auto play for me but 55 is a bit steep this weekend. Bet it will cash regardless.
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Only issue with that total is the Skins ball control offense.

Just in my eyes.

Like this game to still have points but I could see a lower possession game than most Cowboys tilts.
 
pressitup said:
Rams 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Jags 5-1 Under 1st quarter

Chiefs: 5-1 Under 1st quarter, 6-0 4th quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Saints: 0-6ats 1st quarter, 5-1 Over 1st half

Patriots: 5-1 Over 1st half

Titans: 1-5ats 1st quarter

Panthers: 6-0ats 4th quarter

Cardinals: 5-1ats 1st quarter

Cowboys 6-0 Over 1st half

Niners 5-1 under 1st quarter

Bucs 6-0 3rd quarter

Texans 5-0 4th quarter

*source VSIN FTM.
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Add in the travel and bad weather and that Rams/Jags 1Q u7.5 looks good.

Bears 1Q-.5 and 1Qo7.5 both look good as well. Expect Bears to have a good script and NO 1Qs have been high scoring.
 
I might be crazy but I think everyone loving the under in the LAR/JAX London game is dead wrong. I think somewhere right around the total is the lowest it'll possibly be, with huge upside. Just don't see this ever being a game under 40 pts. Could see both teams moving the ball more than expected and always going to be a chance for decent bit of pts off turnovers esp with that Jags defense out there. If this ends up with both teams scoring 28+ i won't be shocked.
 
bmifsud said:
I might be crazy but I think everyone loving the under in the LAR/JAX London game is dead wrong. I think somewhere right around the total is the lowest it'll possibly be, with huge upside. Just don't see this ever being a game under 40 pts. Could see both teams moving the ball more than expected and always going to be a chance for decent bit of pts off turnovers esp with that Jags defense out there. If this ends up with both teams scoring 28+ i won't be shocked.
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So far, so good.
 
B.A.R. said:
So far, so good.
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go ahead and laugh at me for thinking the jags could put up 28. LMAO. they're gonna need all 28 off of turnovers. unbelievable how bad this team is. trevor is not the answer for them, no matter if he shows hints of being it sometimes. how is this team 4-2 and how on earth did they score 30 against KC LOL

and from what ive seen so far i would be much more comfortable if i had the under. the rams won't score nonstop all game, they'll have their share of punts. im not sure the jags will even put 1 TD drive together.
 
bmifsud said:
go ahead and laugh at me for thinking the jags could put up 28. LMAO. they're gonna need all 28 off of turnovers. unbelievable how bad this team is. trevor is not the answer for them, no matter if he shows hints of being it sometimes. how is this team 4-2 and how on earth did they score 30 against KC LOL

and from what ive seen so far i would be much more comfortable if i had the under. the rams won't score nonstop all game, they'll have their share of punts. im not sure the jags will even put 1 TD drive together.
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As a Jags fan I think this is spot-on. The guy is Daniel Jones. He peaked as a freshman in college lol
 
Samuel, McLaurin and Noah Brown out today for Washington.

Just means the Dallas secondary will give up 3 touchdowns instead of 4 or 5.
 
  • Wow
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C-MAN said:
Rams not landing in London until Saturday. The latest any team has arrived for an overseas game. Not sure what the thought process is here for the Rams. I suppose try to get a pretty normal week of practice, but that seems rough not having time to acclimate
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And they stayed on the East Coast all week. Not sure where but at least they didn't have to deal with the 8 hour time difference. Still 5 hours is tough to get used to in a day. Doesn't appear to be fazing them though.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Samuel. McLaurin and Noah Brown out today for Washington.

Just means the Dallas secondary will give up 3 touchdowns instead of 4 or 5.
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Hopefully good value on the team total although I don't have a clue who will catch passes outside of Ertz maybe? Not really familiar with their team enough.
 
KJ said:
And they stayed on the East Coast all week. Not sure where but at least they didn't have to deal with the 8 hour time difference. Still 5 hours is tough to get used to in a day. Doesn't appear to be fazing them though.
Click to expand...

Whatever the Jags itinerary was, they need to never do that again. What a dogshit effort today.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: KJ
atl going for 3 in a row. last time Atlanta covered the spread three in a row was Sep 25, 2022. only time they've done it since Dec 22, 2019. L3 seasons only the titans are worse ats
 
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