Week 7 Discussion Thread


Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel

Sources: Oklahoma QB John Mateer is pushing to return this week for the game against Texas. There’s a belief that his return is possible, as he’s reacted well to surgery.


Feels like a quick turnaround, very quick. I want to say Kurtis Rourke had a similar turnaround last year with a right hand issue but it might not have been the same type injury,
 
Frank Costanza said:
Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel

Sources: Oklahoma QB John Mateer is pushing to return this week for the game against Texas. There’s a belief that his return is possible, as he’s reacted well to surgery.


Feels like a quick turnaround, very quick. I want to say Kurtis Rourke had a similar turnaround last year with a right hand issue but it might not have been the same type injury,
Click to expand...
Just saw this.

Interesting.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel

Sources: Oklahoma QB John Mateer is pushing to return this week for the game against Texas. There’s a belief that his return is possible, as he’s reacted well to surgery.


Feels like a quick turnaround, very quick. I want to say Kurtis Rourke had a similar turnaround last year with a right hand issue but it might not have been the same type injury,
Click to expand...
Listening to BBOC podcast right now. It sounds as if Mateer will 100% suit up, but maybe only 50-50 that he plays - and if he does play, he's expected to be very limited throwing so whether it's Mateer or Hawkins, OU likely to be very run-reliant. This might set up well for a 1H under - uncertainty for OU O; incompetence for UT O (only 4 methodical drives all year and Baxter out weakens ground game); 2 elite Ds… all that has me thinking the teams will be uncertain as to what to expect from opposing Os and spend some time feeling each other out. Think both Ds will be far ahead of both Os and they'll start conservatively/more focused on not losing the game 1H, then get into halftime to make adjustments to try win the game.
 
Now "probable". But so was Austin Simmons a couple weeks ago.

I can see this going either way. Hawkins was just bad in the same game last year so I can see Venables giving Mateer a shot (literally or otherwise) if he's capable.

www.espn.com

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer set for return against Texas

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is set to play against Texas, just 17 days after undergoing surgery on a broken bone in his throwing hand.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1976469105520906730

Sam Leavitt downgraded from probable to doubtful for ASU at Utah Saturday night. Weird given that ASU is off a bye and Leavitt finished the previous game. Jeff Sims time and the market reacted quickly going from -5' to juiced -7. Utes D not up to usual standards (56th overall, 93rd tackling, 111th coverage per PFF) but the Jeff Sims I've come to know would struggle to exploit exploit UAB's D much less the Utes D at night at Rice-Eccles (even if they are relatively down).
 
BiffTFinancial said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1976469105520906730

Sam Leavitt downgraded from probable to doubtful for ASU at Utah Saturday night. Weird given that ASU is off a bye and Leavitt finished the previous game. Jeff Sims time and the market reacted quickly going from -5' to juiced -7. Utes D not up to usual standards (56th overall, 93rd tackling, 111th coverage per PFF) but the Jeff Sims I've come to know would struggle to exploit exploit UAB's D much less the Utes D at night at Rice-Eccles (even if they are relatively down).
Click to expand...
I have not read past this post but Leavitt is OUT now definitely
 
Feel like it tough not to play trees getting so many points! Off a bye and they havnt been like completely awful, maybe the over makes just as much sense? I think trees will have some success throwing, not sure they can slow the smu offense? 55 seems incredibly doable if trees can stay anywhere close to the number.

Want to like Terps, feels like a total grind for both offenses to getting +6.5 seems very appealing. That said doesn’t 48 feel kinda high? I’m not sure if Terps gonna be able to convert 3rd downs at all, when Nebraska offense is successful I think it much more a clock eating offense than quick scoring as raoila is very efficient but they not exactly explosive. The way to attack huskers seems to be on the ground but Terps are not a good rushing team, think it fair to say Nebraska pass d numbers are certainly helped by the fact they have mostly faced teams who rather run the ball and have had some success doing so. Makes it kinda tough to figure out what I expect from Terps offense but think it incredibly likely anytime they get behind the chains they gonna struggle to pick up 1st downs so should be a lot of stalled drives. Thing just screams under to me.

Of course I gotta rock with ducks -7. I been looking to fade Hoosiers since last year playoff whenever they face a real team, they made me feel stupid blowing out Illini but got the cover in Iowa, I have gained some respect for Hoosiers compared to what I thought bout them last season but quack attack in Eugene? There only 4-5 teams I can think of I wouldn’t lay a td with ducks at home and Hoosiers ain’t one of them. Respect them more, yes, but still don’t believe they on this level to think they staying in this game for 4 qrtrs.
 
FWIW: I predict that this game is somewhat unpredictable more so than many others due to turnovers. That and Arch is no bueno.

Texas graduate '80. I cannot imagine betting Texas this year.

My opinion - Arch is not good. Not mad or upset about it, he is just not good. Better put, he is a good parochial school QB but at this level he does not have the skills needed. I would never put $$$ on Texas in this game. I have not bet OU either, but I might.

I was thinking about this game and turnovers. It is my recall over the years that there are a lot of significant game changing turnovers. I "Groked" it and here is the answer:

Historically are there a lot of turnovers in Texas OU game?

Historical Overview of Turnovers in the Texas-Oklahoma Red River RivalryThe Texas-Oklahoma game (commonly called the Red River Rivalry or Red River Shootout) has been played annually since 1929 (and sporadically before that since 1900), totaling 120 meetings as of 2024. While comprehensive year-by-year turnover data for the entire series isn't aggregated in a single public source, available box scores, recaps, and analyses from the last 20-30 years show that turnovers have been a defining and frequent element of the matchup. The rivalry's intensity—often featuring high stakes, ranked teams, and aggressive playstyles—has led to games where turnovers swing momentum dramatically, with many contests decided by one score or less (9 of the last 11 as of 2024).

In short: Yes, there have historically been a lot of turnovers.

The average total turnovers per game in recent decades appears to hover around 3-4 (based on sampled high-profile games), which is elevated compared to the college football average of about 2.5-3 per game league-wide. Turnovers have directly influenced outcomes in iconic games, often involving multiple interceptions, fumbles, or blocked kicks returned for points. Below, I'll break it down with key data and examples.Key Trends from Available Data

  • Recent Seasons (2015-2024): In the last 10 games, total turnovers averaged ~2.8 per game, but this includes some defensive blowouts with fewer opportunities (e.g., 2024's 3 total). High-scoring thrillers pushed the average higher in prior years.
  • Overall Series Impact: Turnovers have been pivotal in ~40% of documented memorable games, per recaps. Oklahoma has often capitalized on Texas mistakes (e.g., multi-interception games), while Texas defenses have forced key fumbles in upsets.
  • Comparison to Norms: In Big 12/SEC play, these teams average 2-3 turnovers forced per game individually, but the rivalry amplifies this due to pressure (e.g., Oklahoma's defense led FBS with 10 tackles for loss/game in 2025 previews).
Turnover Data from Select Recent GamesHere's a table summarizing turnovers (total = fumbles lost + interceptions) from notable games since 2015, drawn from box scores and recaps. These represent a mix of close contests and routs, highlighting the variability but consistent presence of mistakes.

Key Trends from Available Data
  • Recent Seasons (2015-2024): In the last 10 games, total turnovers averaged ~2.8 per game, but this includes some defensive blowouts with fewer opportunities (e.g., 2024's 3 total). High-scoring thrillers pushed the average higher in prior years.
  • Overall Series Impact: Turnovers have been pivotal in ~40% of documented memorable games, per recaps. Oklahoma has often capitalized on Texas mistakes (e.g., multi-interception games), while Texas defenses have forced key fumbles in upsets.
  • Comparison to Norms: In Big 12/SEC play, these teams average 2-3 turnovers forced per game individually, but the rivalry amplifies this due to pressure (e.g., Oklahoma's defense led FBS with 10 tackles for loss/game in 2025 previews).
Turnover Data from Select Recent Games. Here's a table summarizing turnovers (total = fumbles lost + interceptions) from notable games since 2015, drawn from box scores and recaps. These represent a mix of close contests and routs, highlighting the variability but consistent presence of mistakes.

(You can go and look at the table)
 
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