Week 7 Discussion Thread

Tonight’s game has sone prop opportunity! Neither team gonna have much success running the ball. Every game where bears run game slowed down Shapen has smashed this 224.5 pass yard total!! He going to throw for 250ish here!!

Not only will bears shut down wvu rush attack but Mathis sharing carries! I just missed under 60.5 rush yards and got in at under 56.5, then it dropped all way to 50.5!! I still think it a play at that number. Mathis splitting carries, you can only expect him to get 10-12 rushes, bears are holding opponents to 2.8 yards per rush! (8th in country), wvu gonna have to throw and they don’t be leading late so no leaning on run game. No chance Mathis goes over 50 rush yards unless he accidentally pops one and he don’t really have break away speed!
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
he's got talent, but he's also super raw. watched about half that game last week. one, TCU was lucky AF to win (and cover for most). two, he missed so many open receivers. didn't see them over the middle wide open. and there was one easy toss to a RB out of the backfield that he overthrew. he was upset, knowing he blew an easy FD. Just saying he's mistake prone being so raw.

i'm leaning Kansas too, but trying to see if Gabriel is playing. if he is, i may just play TTs or the over.
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Maybe nerves got to Bean a bit, so he looked “raw?” He’s a redshirt senior who started 7 or 8 games last year so you’d hope it was just a little attack of nerves due to the situation he was thrust into last week and he can rely on his experience and knowledge of the offense this week.
 
jedi ninja said:
Maybe nerves got to Bean a bit, so he looked “raw?” He’s a redshirt senior who started 7 or 8 games last year so you’d hope it was just a little attack of nerves due to the situation he was thrust into last week and he can rely on his experience and knowledge of the offense this week.
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you're right, had to be nerves...

that play where he overthrew the easy screen to the open back...would've gone for 15-20 yards it was so open...really sticks in my mind. he knew the moment he let it go, and they showed Leipold consoling Bean on the sideline afterwards.
in practice, he surely completes that 100% of the time. just got too anxious or something. understandable.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
you're right, had to be nerves...

that play where he overthrew the easy screen to the open back...would've gone for 15-20 yards it was so open...really sticks in my mind. he knew the moment he let it go, and they showed Leipold consoling Bean on the sideline afterwards.
in practice, he surely completes that 100% of the time. just got too anxious or something. understandable.
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I hope I’m right, their season is a great story and fun to follow.

You’re right, that screen he missed would have been a gasher. Misses like that are often nerves, and as you pointed out he probably hits that thing 100% of the time in practice. GL this week if you’re on Kansas, I’ll be on em and rooting along.
 
jedi ninja said:
I hope I’m right, their season is a great story and fun to follow.

You’re right, that screen he missed would have been a gasher. Misses like that are often nerves, and as you pointed out he probably hits that thing 100% of the time in practice. GL this week if you’re on Kansas, I’ll be on em and rooting along.
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i'm waiting/hoping for a +10 or better.
if not, i'll definitely be rooting for them.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
i'm waiting/hoping for a +10 or better.
if not, i'll definitely be rooting for them.
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10 would be great.

Also thinking hard about the ML. Oklahoma just isn't Oklahoma this year and lots of times those types of situations, when they do happen, seem to spiral out of control as opposed to being righted quickly.
 
2daBank said:
I think I’m way more confident he handles it and gets his team back up way better than Venables did! I think ku hit a home run with this guy and fully expect we get another A effort from them, I dunno if that evough but if Sooners continue playing like dogs it should be!
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Not sure kansas qb has to pass against a defense that can't stop the run.....Oklahoma just gave up 50 back to back don't get the line at all kansas should be favored here....market just can't adjust their preseason ratings to these 2 extremes both going in opposite directions
 
moultrie83 said:
Clemson is getting back at least 2, if not 3 starters on defense (Bresee-DT, Mickens-safety, Jones-corner) and a few 2nd string safeties (Greene and venables). This will the the healthiest the defense has been all season. I am a homer no doubt and this line is fishy as hell but I don’t see how Clemson doesn’t cover easily.

I realize I just mushed it, but oh well.
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This is a double Texas triangle — something I’ve never seen before — but the MOV’s were so small I doubt it matters.
 
2daBank said:
I just don’t know shit bout any that shit. Plus it kill me if I did then they found out and I get totally fucjed. I really like cash so even tho some drawbacks it works for me.
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Also, how would you do with unlimited access? I mean now you have to drive, so kinda limits you to what you placed and not allowing you to chase. Sounds weird, but keeps you off full tilt.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Also, how would you do with unlimited access? I mean now you have to drive, so kinda limits you to what you placed and not allowing you to chase. Sounds weird, but keeps you off full tilt.
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Not weird at all, There is def something to that. I’ve done way better since not being able to make bunch of dumb Ass live or halftime bets. Or just for action, I really ain’t going making plays unless I legit think they should be made, not just for action.
 
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14-3 (-14.5) L
28-9 (-31.5) L
13-6 (-20.5) L
20-14 (-4.5) W
13-10 (-3.5) L
10-3 (-12) L

1-5 ATS

Those are the Clemson 1H scores and lines. Figures their only cover was a half I lost on.

27-7 (-10.5) W
7-3 (-14) L
35-13 (-14) W
31-31 (-3.5) L
17-10 (-.5) W
21-0 (-7) W

4-2 ATS

Those are Clemson 2H scores and lines

I was just looking around at stuff. Is there a website that easily tracks ATS performance in the 1H and 2H?
 
counselor said:
Situationally, I told myself Saturday night that I would be on Minnesota at anything under 3 coming off a bye and (apparently) getting Mo back. Combine that with Illinois coming off back-to-back physical games with Wisconsin, and especially last week with Iowa, and the somewhat unknown status of DeVito after getting banged up Saturday, and I liked the play. It opened at -3.5, so it was close, but I didn’t have the stomach. It didn’t take long to climb, which did surprise me a bit. I think Illinois -7 (if it gets there) is a “safe” pick, but I won’t play it.

The best play for this game IMO is the U39. It opened at 36 and went to 38 by last night, and I just noticed it has moved north another point since, so I might hold off to see if it climbs some more. With or without a healthy Mo, Minnesota is going to (try to) run the ball. Illinois run defense is solid, and they’re physical. Minnesota isn’t going to push them around. Fat Bert loves to run the ball, too, and DeVito likely won’t be 100%, so I expect they’ll try to pound the ball. Both defenses have a good 3rd down efficiency, and I trust both will force FG’s. I wouldn’t be shocked to see 17-13-type game, close throughout.

If I decide to play a BIG spread this weekend it’ll probably be Wisconsin at anything under 10. My only concern is I don’t like it situationally with the back-to-back road games and back-to-back home games. However, I feel like that win at NW was a huge weight lifted, and I also believe Leonard will get this team playing back up to its potential. Sparty has really struggled since playing at Washington, and I don’t know what they’re going to be able to do to turn it around. Yes, they’ve not had an easy schedule to start B1G play, but they haven’t performed well on either side in any of those games. There appears to be a lot of issues there from top to bottom. Considering the predicted weather and the probability that Wisconsin will shorten the game with the run game, the U48.5 might not be a terrible idea.

That’s my $0.02. BOL fellas.
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Great stuff @counselor !!

For those not here in our first 4-6 years, a big welcome back to an old favorite of ours.
 
So last year Van Dyke storms on the scene and is supposed to be the next big thing, then of course probably the worst news a qb wanting to be drafted can hear “Mario Christobal is coming to be your head coach”, we all saw how useless he made Hebert look for years!! Naturally he struggles, is so bad vs mtsu he gets benched and they lose. Canes get a bye week he comes back and throws for damn near 500 last week on unc (god knows how that only lead to 27 points?), I know unc d is awful but throwing for 5 bills on anyone pretty impressive. Now this week he gets a vtech d I’d argue a tad overrated due to playing lot of shoddy passing games, maye lit them up rather easy, wvu didn’t have much problem moving ball on them. So do we think some things were fixed during the bye? Or will Christibal go back to being a qb killer?
 
2daBank said:
So last year Van Dyke storms on the scene and is supposed to be the next big thing, then of course probably the worst news a qb wanting to be drafted can hear “Mario Christobal is coming to be your head coach”, we all saw how useless he made Hebert look for years!! Naturally he struggles, is so bad vs mtsu he gets benched and they lose. Canes get a bye week he comes back and throws for damn near 500 last week on unc (god knows how that only lead to 27 points?), I know unc d is awful but throwing for 5 bills on anyone pretty impressive. Now this week he gets a vtech d I’d argue a tad overrated due to playing lot of shoddy passing games, maye lit them up rather easy, wvu didn’t have much problem moving ball on them. So do we think some things were fixed during the bye? Or will Christibal go back to being a qb killer?
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If the VT O from last week is real (403 yards), I thought about Over because as you are saying that the VT D might be more vulnerable than first appears vs the pass, we have evidence that the Miami pass D is poor (second worst ACC pass eff D and pass ypg allowed) - that puts Canes in bottom half conference total D, but their run D has better numbers.
 
s--k said:
If the VT O from last week is real (403 yards), I thought about Over because as you are saying that the VT D might be more vulnerable than first appears vs the pass, we have evidence that the Miami pass D is poor (second worst ACC pass eff D and pass ypg allowed) - that puts Canes in bottom half conference total D, but their run D has better numbers.
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I have both qbs yards totals over wrote down on my initial leans so thinking same way
 
2daBank said:
Im not very high on them but beating canes certainly wouldn’t surprise me.
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You are right, there is not much to be high on. But that game last week vs Pitt, who also is easy to not be high on...but anyway, VT was a failed 2pt conversion away from having that be a tied ball game with about 11min to go. They got a fumble or onside kick I forget, but had the ball again at midfield with like 10min left, only down 2 - then they turn it over and they end up losing by 16. It was the best game VT has played all year (minus some of the rushing numbers Pitt had - although I wonder how many came in the mid-late 4th Q when Pitt went from up 2 to up 16)...it's like best VT game all year and they don't even cover despite never trailing by more than a FG all game I think? I didn't have action on it so I don't completely know how it all went, but it was very close game throughout
 
s--k said:
You are right, there is not much to be high on. But that game last week vs Pitt, who also is easy to not be high on...but anyway, VT was a failed 2pt conversion away from having that be a tied ball game with about 11min to go. They got a fumble or onside kick I forget, but had the ball again at midfield with like 10min left, only down 2 - then they turn it over and they end up losing by 16. It was the best game VT has played all year (minus some of the rushing numbers Pitt had - although I wonder how many came in the mid-late 4th Q when Pitt went from up 2 to up 16)...it's like best VT game all year and they don't even cover despite never trailing by more than a FG all game I think? I didn't have action on it so I don't completely know how it all went, but it was very close game throughout
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Hell look at canes. Their qb throws for just shy of 500 and they only score 24 points and lose. Talk bout a couple fuck ups!!
 
Think there are some things that VT can build on from that Pitt loss, coming back home with a bye on deck. It's empty the bucket here to win is how I look at it. Now maybe Miami can spin some positives off their UNC loss too, but they traveling, road favorite...I like VT as the home dog here. Miami hasn't covered an FBS game all year, so maybe they are due, or maybe they just suck.
 
As we talk I’m kinda thinking that game has a very over type feel. That total got hit all way down to 46 at one point this week? Canes are allowing over 10 freaking yards a pass attempt!! Wells can spin it, he has just made god awful mistakes most his career when he allowed to throw.
 
2daBank said:
As we talk I’m kinda thinking that game has a very over type feel. That total got hit all way down to 46 at one point this week? Canes are allowing over 10 freaking yards a pass attempt!! Wells can spin it, he has just made god awful mistakes most his career when he allowed to throw.
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The big question we can't know, is the VT O vs Pitt an anomaly and does their O instead perform this week like it has in games vs UNC, WVU, ODU...the Over/Under line and movement I suppose is thinking it does and maybe there is some of that sentiment that Miami O might not be as good away as it occasionally has been at home. We only have the aTm game as their lone away game this year.....400 yards and 9 points there. What'd you say they had vs UNC? 500 yards and 24 pts? There is some disconnect with their team. The only time I really watched them closely was the Southern Miss 1H and they were god awful.
 
The Hokies O looked better last week in part because Malachi Thomas was finally healthy enough to play at RB after being injured all season. He can actually get a few yards after contact whereas the other RBs could not, keeping them behind the chains and solely in the hands of Wells. Having him back also puts RB King into his natural role, which is on the edge and a change of pace back.

They also realized what a matchup advantage freshman TE Dae'Quan Wright is. He started getting playing time 2 games ago against UNC and they had some plays designed to get him the ball in the last game against Pitt.

Having WR Kaleb Smith healthy for a full game also helped as he had over 150 yards receiving.

Wells is gonna due Wells things, which usually leads to points for his team or the other team.

On D, I doubt DB Strong plays this week again. He is VTs best DB who has missed the last 2 games. LB Tisdale will play his first game of the year tomorrow which will help to have some experience at LB and maybe help prevent another big rushing day. He was out for academic reasons. Also, DE Garbutt should play this week after missing last week's game. He has been the best individual player on the VT D this year.

I would lean over a pretty low number of 48 with the Hokes O finally showing some players and Strong still being out.
 
Quick heads up on the NC St/Syracuse game. A lot of really strange movement on that game. My pulled Sunday #'s say Syracuse -5.5. NC St QB Leary was obviously not going to play but the number kept going to NC st. The coach gave it away with the "6 weeks" quote. Strange movement yesterday with it being -3.5 everywhere, but Leary was still 1 on the depth chart. Friday afternoon it nosedived to -3 everywhere with no new information. This morning it comes out Leary is out, should rise in theory. Caesars goes to -3.5 and within an hour back down to -3. Just by the movement alone, NC st seems to be the only play.
 
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