Week 7 DFS/Props Discussion Thread
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
some kind of miller sack or tackle prop maybe? i havnt done very well with the few defensive props ive tried but Miller been talking some big boy shit this week and going up against backup tackle i tend to believe him when he says he gonna murder them!! figuratively i assume, lol..
sucks it sounds like OBJ not playing or even if he did try no way could trust him.. i was really wanting to see if keenam had more success throwing his way, was def gonna play over receptions and yards but that out now.. i really dont have anything for this game.., denver defense bout only thing dfs wise and they probably more expensive than i typically like to spend on d..
sucks it sounds like OBJ not playing or even if he did try no way could trust him.. i was really wanting to see if keenam had more success throwing his way, was def gonna play over receptions and yards but that out now.. i really dont have anything for this game.., denver defense bout only thing dfs wise and they probably more expensive than i typically like to spend on d..
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I'll try to scramble/ramble when I can tonight/early tomorrow morning. Otherwise won't be around until 12pm sunday, the earliest.
RB Likes from me - Henry/Henderson > Fournette/Dar.Williams >>>>>>>> Gibson/Edmonds >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chubba?/M. Davis?/Jacobs? (or there alternates, ie. connor/patterson/etc.)
RB Likes from me - Henry/Henderson > Fournette/Dar.Williams >>>>>>>> Gibson/Edmonds >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chubba?/M. Davis?/Jacobs? (or there alternates, ie. connor/patterson/etc.)
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Lost my original writeup of KCC/TEN, but long story short as possible;
KCC/TEN
KCC DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
5th highest pace of play (good), highest o/u by a TD (great)
Henry/Dar Williams have 3rd/4th best ALY push (and also why I like them in prior post)
Mahomes has 4 best ASR for week (Sack protection) (3rd highest for main slate)
I think this game can easily be game/team stacked. But to gain leverage, I don't think one offing is a bad idea either.
If multi entering, I'd do a lineup where maybe you one off AJ Brown over Henry for some leverage. He saw 79% of snaps, and fought through food poisoning to get a nice 7/91 stat line. He can easily do 8+/100+/1+. He had 36% of the target shares. I don't trust julios injury woes, and the rest of the WRs have a target share that match Henry's, so why bother? TE's are extremely underutilized in this offense too (from a target standpoint), pass.
Mahomes has drop backed 50+ times in 3 out of last 4 weeks, for 350+ air yards in 3/4 weeks. On top of that, they've still given their RBs 24+ rush attempts in 3/4 (2 overlapping) --- AKA still room for Dar Williams, and he did get targeted 4 times. While Hill is still being targeted at a great level, his 57% snap share concerns me, and I would love for him to be healthy, but I think pivoting to Kelce, and/or his cheaper options is the smarter move. Demarcus Robinson has quietly averaged a snap rate of 70% (more than hardman) and finished last week with 6 targets and the most air yards on the team. He can be a good pivot/leverage switch for exposure to this offense as well.
KCC/TEN
KCC DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
5th highest pace of play (good), highest o/u by a TD (great)
Henry/Dar Williams have 3rd/4th best ALY push (and also why I like them in prior post)
Mahomes has 4 best ASR for week (Sack protection) (3rd highest for main slate)
I think this game can easily be game/team stacked. But to gain leverage, I don't think one offing is a bad idea either.
If multi entering, I'd do a lineup where maybe you one off AJ Brown over Henry for some leverage. He saw 79% of snaps, and fought through food poisoning to get a nice 7/91 stat line. He can easily do 8+/100+/1+. He had 36% of the target shares. I don't trust julios injury woes, and the rest of the WRs have a target share that match Henry's, so why bother? TE's are extremely underutilized in this offense too (from a target standpoint), pass.
Mahomes has drop backed 50+ times in 3 out of last 4 weeks, for 350+ air yards in 3/4 weeks. On top of that, they've still given their RBs 24+ rush attempts in 3/4 (2 overlapping) --- AKA still room for Dar Williams, and he did get targeted 4 times. While Hill is still being targeted at a great level, his 57% snap share concerns me, and I would love for him to be healthy, but I think pivoting to Kelce, and/or his cheaper options is the smarter move. Demarcus Robinson has quietly averaged a snap rate of 70% (more than hardman) and finished last week with 6 targets and the most air yards on the team. He can be a good pivot/leverage switch for exposure to this offense as well.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
NYJ/NEP
NEP DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D
4th lowest pace of play, 2nd lowest of main slate (bad), .5 from lower O/U of main slate.
Dam. Harris 4th worst ALY push/
Wilson has 3rd worst (1st of main slate) ASR. Mac has 6th worst (4th of main slate)
If you want to one off a higher volume/ppr option, that would be my max player recommendation. Otherwise, I'd only consider the defenses here. We saw what wilson did the first time around.
Notable: Dam. Harris had his highest rush attempts last week since week 1, and they are 7 point favorites. I don't hate the idea if you're playing NEP Defense, to pair it with Dam. Harris once~, just not sure I will.
NEP DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D
4th lowest pace of play, 2nd lowest of main slate (bad), .5 from lower O/U of main slate.
Dam. Harris 4th worst ALY push/
Wilson has 3rd worst (1st of main slate) ASR. Mac has 6th worst (4th of main slate)
If you want to one off a higher volume/ppr option, that would be my max player recommendation. Otherwise, I'd only consider the defenses here. We saw what wilson did the first time around.
Notable: Dam. Harris had his highest rush attempts last week since week 1, and they are 7 point favorites. I don't hate the idea if you're playing NEP Defense, to pair it with Dam. Harris once~, just not sure I will.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
CIN/BAL
CIN DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D
BAL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D
2nd slowest pace of play, 1st slowest of main slate (bad) 3rd lowest O/U of main slate.
Freeman? Has the worst ALY push of the week.
Burrow has the 5th worst ASR (3rd worst of main slate)
I actually like cincy to keep this within 6.5, but not sure how much I want to attack this game from a prop/dfs perspective.
Higgins took a step back in snaps last week (57%), but I think that's because the game was out of reach and he still tied chase (and mixon) for team lead in targets (6)... I wouldn't count him out while people are still flocking to chase. The game script does help here, as they are dogs.
Andrews has been targeted 9 times a game past 4 weeks. Despite 2 of those 4 weeks his team blowing out the competition and seeing 2 of his worst snap rates (W4 - Denver, W6 - Chargers). What's great about him, is he gets targets deep as well. He's led this team in air yards twice (past 2 weeks) And has an aDOT of 10.33 L4.
Those would be the one-offs I'd consider most. I won't talk anyone out of trying to be sneaky and grabbing one of these defenses, but full disclosure, I haven't looked at pricing yet. And not sure I want that if its going to be a slow game where they may lean on their running.
CIN DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D
BAL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D
2nd slowest pace of play, 1st slowest of main slate (bad) 3rd lowest O/U of main slate.
Freeman? Has the worst ALY push of the week.
Burrow has the 5th worst ASR (3rd worst of main slate)
I actually like cincy to keep this within 6.5, but not sure how much I want to attack this game from a prop/dfs perspective.
Higgins took a step back in snaps last week (57%), but I think that's because the game was out of reach and he still tied chase (and mixon) for team lead in targets (6)... I wouldn't count him out while people are still flocking to chase. The game script does help here, as they are dogs.
Andrews has been targeted 9 times a game past 4 weeks. Despite 2 of those 4 weeks his team blowing out the competition and seeing 2 of his worst snap rates (W4 - Denver, W6 - Chargers). What's great about him, is he gets targets deep as well. He's led this team in air yards twice (past 2 weeks) And has an aDOT of 10.33 L4.
Those would be the one-offs I'd consider most. I won't talk anyone out of trying to be sneaky and grabbing one of these defenses, but full disclosure, I haven't looked at pricing yet. And not sure I want that if its going to be a slow game where they may lean on their running.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
WAS/GBP
WAS DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
6th fastest pace of play (ok). O/U Clumped with others.
Gibson has 7th best ALY push, 5th best of main slate.
Heinicke has 6th best ASR spot (5th of main slate).
Rodgers has 5th best ASR spot (4th of main slate).
Not sure what I want to do here just yet as the pace of play is a bit deceiving. It's to opposites. Washington fast, packers slow. Problem is, packers may not have as much success running as they do passing, but rodgers can dink and dunk his way to clock draining drives. However, there's always a scenario where washington jumps to a lead, and that's where this game can become fun. I don't want to over exposed myself, but a mini game stack can work here.
Reason for not getting over exposed, Rodgers has reached exactly 40 drop backs twice (and thats not pass attempts), otherwise he has been 33 or lower --- that's bad for production. The positive? He's still efficient (3 times over 330+ Air yards). The other positive? His throws are concentrated! Adams for the year has 35.6% of the target share. So over 1/3 of the time, he's look his way. He's averaging 11 targets a game (despite 5 targets last week, and not playing a full game in week 1's blowout loss to saints). He's TWICE had over 230 AIR YARDS (253/234 W3/5), and washingtons defense is 2021's, not 2020's.
I guess there's also a scenario packers lead, washington plays fast, and gives more opp to jones/dillon, but I'm not playing it that way, and don't want to overexpose myself either. Now if you want to play out washington getting a sizable lead, Gibson/Adams can make sense, he could get 20~ carries/few targets. If you think its a bit back and forth, Mclaurin/Adams makes sense. Mclaurin is almost like adams. Throwing W1 out (where heinicke didn't start the game off, and vs the chargers P Def). He's averaging 10.8 targets/game, and 140.6 air yards ---- those are massive, just make sure he is playing! If you want a cheap option in Brown (if samual is out) or RSJ, I won't talk you off of it.
WAS DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
6th fastest pace of play (ok). O/U Clumped with others.
Gibson has 7th best ALY push, 5th best of main slate.
Heinicke has 6th best ASR spot (5th of main slate).
Rodgers has 5th best ASR spot (4th of main slate).
Not sure what I want to do here just yet as the pace of play is a bit deceiving. It's to opposites. Washington fast, packers slow. Problem is, packers may not have as much success running as they do passing, but rodgers can dink and dunk his way to clock draining drives. However, there's always a scenario where washington jumps to a lead, and that's where this game can become fun. I don't want to over exposed myself, but a mini game stack can work here.
Reason for not getting over exposed, Rodgers has reached exactly 40 drop backs twice (and thats not pass attempts), otherwise he has been 33 or lower --- that's bad for production. The positive? He's still efficient (3 times over 330+ Air yards). The other positive? His throws are concentrated! Adams for the year has 35.6% of the target share. So over 1/3 of the time, he's look his way. He's averaging 11 targets a game (despite 5 targets last week, and not playing a full game in week 1's blowout loss to saints). He's TWICE had over 230 AIR YARDS (253/234 W3/5), and washingtons defense is 2021's, not 2020's.
I guess there's also a scenario packers lead, washington plays fast, and gives more opp to jones/dillon, but I'm not playing it that way, and don't want to overexpose myself either. Now if you want to play out washington getting a sizable lead, Gibson/Adams can make sense, he could get 20~ carries/few targets. If you think its a bit back and forth, Mclaurin/Adams makes sense. Mclaurin is almost like adams. Throwing W1 out (where heinicke didn't start the game off, and vs the chargers P Def). He's averaging 10.8 targets/game, and 140.6 air yards ---- those are massive, just make sure he is playing! If you want a cheap option in Brown (if samual is out) or RSJ, I won't talk you off of it.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
ATL/MIA
ATL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D
2nd fastest pace of play (great), O/U higher end of the clumped group.
Gaskin has the 3rd worst ALY push.
Ryan has the best ASR spot.
I want parts of this game, and will be stacking in some. The good? We know we should be able to avoid some spots here. Like the MIA RBs, we already know they can't run the ball, its a tough spot for them, and there in a massive time share. Even last week where they had a lead for most of the game, there RB's combined for 17 carries, a 5/5/7 split (Gaskin/Brown/Ahmed). PASS. The RBs did combine for 9 Targets (6/1/2). So in PPR formats, a case can be made for gaskin, but I don't want it (again this is with no pricing taken into consideration). What I did like in tua's first start back? 49 dropbacks --- again --- in a game where they led for 3~ quarters. I also like that there's rumors in him departing/coach still backing him. He has something to continue to prove, and maybe the coaches want to pad his stats on the down low. I don't know the injury situation, but 2 WR's had 93%+ snaps. the next had 33%. (Waddle/Hollins --- Wilson). I would think if parker/williams are around they're taking hollins usage, and not waddle. Gesicki/Smythe were out there 70/83% of the time. They had 9/6 targets and 88/74 air yards respectively. Idk Smythe's price, but if you want to punt him, and get a lucky TD... you may get <0.5% ownership. Having said that. I'll have mostly Waddle, but don't hate the idea of the others mentioned.
Matt Ryan is a guy that needs 300+/3+. The best part? The last fast paced game he had vs a shoddy defense, he had 44 pass attempts and 441 air yards. We know he's immobile, and looking above, he shouldn't be pressured (YES!). We know MIA supposed to have 2 good corners and its a meh matchup, but Ridley is an alpha where matchups tend to not matter as much. He's ryan's go to man, has had 20~? days to rest, and should be all systems go. It's possible gage is back which should take a bit away from patterson/zaccheus, and a smidge from pitts. I don't hate these other guys, but Ridley is my priority. I may consider M. Davis, I know he's probably still cheap on DK's, he gets around 15+ touches a game, and this should end on the higher side of usage.
ATL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D
2nd fastest pace of play (great), O/U higher end of the clumped group.
Gaskin has the 3rd worst ALY push.
Ryan has the best ASR spot.
I want parts of this game, and will be stacking in some. The good? We know we should be able to avoid some spots here. Like the MIA RBs, we already know they can't run the ball, its a tough spot for them, and there in a massive time share. Even last week where they had a lead for most of the game, there RB's combined for 17 carries, a 5/5/7 split (Gaskin/Brown/Ahmed). PASS. The RBs did combine for 9 Targets (6/1/2). So in PPR formats, a case can be made for gaskin, but I don't want it (again this is with no pricing taken into consideration). What I did like in tua's first start back? 49 dropbacks --- again --- in a game where they led for 3~ quarters. I also like that there's rumors in him departing/coach still backing him. He has something to continue to prove, and maybe the coaches want to pad his stats on the down low. I don't know the injury situation, but 2 WR's had 93%+ snaps. the next had 33%. (Waddle/Hollins --- Wilson). I would think if parker/williams are around they're taking hollins usage, and not waddle. Gesicki/Smythe were out there 70/83% of the time. They had 9/6 targets and 88/74 air yards respectively. Idk Smythe's price, but if you want to punt him, and get a lucky TD... you may get <0.5% ownership. Having said that. I'll have mostly Waddle, but don't hate the idea of the others mentioned.
Matt Ryan is a guy that needs 300+/3+. The best part? The last fast paced game he had vs a shoddy defense, he had 44 pass attempts and 441 air yards. We know he's immobile, and looking above, he shouldn't be pressured (YES!). We know MIA supposed to have 2 good corners and its a meh matchup, but Ridley is an alpha where matchups tend to not matter as much. He's ryan's go to man, has had 20~? days to rest, and should be all systems go. It's possible gage is back which should take a bit away from patterson/zaccheus, and a smidge from pitts. I don't hate these other guys, but Ridley is my priority. I may consider M. Davis, I know he's probably still cheap on DK's, he gets around 15+ touches a game, and this should end on the higher side of usage.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
CAR/NYG
CAR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
4th fastest pace of play (good), O/U is lowest of the main slate/week (These contradict eachother a little & may great for a good ownership leverage spot/buy low opp!)
Booker has 2nd worst ALY push.
I don't know if I will do full on game/team stacks as I want to lower my expectations, but both QBs are in a scenario where there's probably value at their price points (assuming it is not high...) and both QBs can gain yardage/td's with their feet which is great for fantasy purposes. I won't really be going there though and will probably keep it to mini stacks.
On carolina's side, you could consider chubba... It looks like he's locked in to 2/3rds of snaps, but with a floor of 20~ touches. He did peak at 24 rushes/6 targets 2 weeks ago, so its not crazy to think he can get to 30 touches, which is phenomenal. The last 3 weeks moore and anderson have been pretty much like twins. practically same snaps, and close to same targets (32/29 moore/anderson, but 395/326 air yards, 12.34/11.24 aDOT). I think the smarter move is to take the lower priced/ownership option in anderson, as they both can outperform the other on any given sunday. But I won't talk you off moore either.
Booker was out there 72% of the time last week, in a game they were big from 2nd quarter on, yet he only had 4 targets. I don't like that part. In a close game, he's not expected to get much value out of his carries too. 20 carries/2 targets maybe be 50/20 MAX... without TD variance on your side, you may have yourself a dud sandwich, but I get it if you want to use him, unsure of price. What I do want is shepard, his 91% snap share, and his 0 competition (maybe). He had 14 targets, 98 air yards last week. Not bad! If slayton is in, he can be absolutely be considered, otherwise I'd pivot to pettis. No golladay, no toney. I'm not hunting Engrams 5~ target a game hell hole he's been in for what seems forever, same goes for rudolph (but worse)
CAR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
4th fastest pace of play (good), O/U is lowest of the main slate/week (These contradict eachother a little & may great for a good ownership leverage spot/buy low opp!)
Booker has 2nd worst ALY push.
I don't know if I will do full on game/team stacks as I want to lower my expectations, but both QBs are in a scenario where there's probably value at their price points (assuming it is not high...) and both QBs can gain yardage/td's with their feet which is great for fantasy purposes. I won't really be going there though and will probably keep it to mini stacks.
On carolina's side, you could consider chubba... It looks like he's locked in to 2/3rds of snaps, but with a floor of 20~ touches. He did peak at 24 rushes/6 targets 2 weeks ago, so its not crazy to think he can get to 30 touches, which is phenomenal. The last 3 weeks moore and anderson have been pretty much like twins. practically same snaps, and close to same targets (32/29 moore/anderson, but 395/326 air yards, 12.34/11.24 aDOT). I think the smarter move is to take the lower priced/ownership option in anderson, as they both can outperform the other on any given sunday. But I won't talk you off moore either.
Booker was out there 72% of the time last week, in a game they were big from 2nd quarter on, yet he only had 4 targets. I don't like that part. In a close game, he's not expected to get much value out of his carries too. 20 carries/2 targets maybe be 50/20 MAX... without TD variance on your side, you may have yourself a dud sandwich, but I get it if you want to use him, unsure of price. What I do want is shepard, his 91% snap share, and his 0 competition (maybe). He had 14 targets, 98 air yards last week. Not bad! If slayton is in, he can be absolutely be considered, otherwise I'd pivot to pettis. No golladay, no toney. I'm not hunting Engrams 5~ target a game hell hole he's been in for what seems forever, same goes for rudolph (but worse)
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
PHI/LVR
PHI DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D
LVR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
1st fastest pace of play (great), O/U is high end of the clumped games
Carr has the 8th worst ASR, 6th of the main slate (out of 20 -- not absolutely horrible)
Will be attacking this game in some form... heading out for another wedding (sheesh) so just going to get the rest of the info for you guys on the 4pms.
DET/LAR
DET DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D
LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D
3rd fastest pace of play, O/U is 2nd highest of main slate
Henderson has 2nd best ALY push. Swift has 7th worst (5th on main slate)
Stafford has 8th best ASR, 6th best in main slate (out of 20 --- not the great, but still good!)
Hello Henderson. (And others)
CHI/TBB
CHI DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D
TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D
Pace is T8-th for week, O/U is clumped with the main.
Fournette has best ALY push
Fields has 7th worst ASR, 5th for main slate.
Hello Fournette (maybe pinch a couple others --- kind of like robinson, think he is probably undervalued (or mooney))
HOU/ARI
HOU DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D
ARI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
Pace is 7th for the week. O/U clumped with the main ones
Edmonds has 8th best ALY, 6th of the main slate, Ingram has 8th worst ALY, 6th for main slate.
Murray has 2nd best ASR, Mills has 4th worst, 2nd for main slate.
Check edmonds status... if he's out, all will be firing up connor. I still think one can eat well though tomorrow.
Gl all, either back between 12 to 1 tomorrow, or not until later.
PHI DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D
LVR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
1st fastest pace of play (great), O/U is high end of the clumped games
Carr has the 8th worst ASR, 6th of the main slate (out of 20 -- not absolutely horrible)
Will be attacking this game in some form... heading out for another wedding (sheesh) so just going to get the rest of the info for you guys on the 4pms.
DET/LAR
DET DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D
LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D
3rd fastest pace of play, O/U is 2nd highest of main slate
Henderson has 2nd best ALY push. Swift has 7th worst (5th on main slate)
Stafford has 8th best ASR, 6th best in main slate (out of 20 --- not the great, but still good!)
Hello Henderson. (And others)
CHI/TBB
CHI DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D
TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D
Pace is T8-th for week, O/U is clumped with the main.
Fournette has best ALY push
Fields has 7th worst ASR, 5th for main slate.
Hello Fournette (maybe pinch a couple others --- kind of like robinson, think he is probably undervalued (or mooney))
HOU/ARI
HOU DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D
ARI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D
Pace is 7th for the week. O/U clumped with the main ones
Edmonds has 8th best ALY, 6th of the main slate, Ingram has 8th worst ALY, 6th for main slate.
Murray has 2nd best ASR, Mills has 4th worst, 2nd for main slate.
Check edmonds status... if he's out, all will be firing up connor. I still think one can eat well though tomorrow.
Gl all, either back between 12 to 1 tomorrow, or not until later.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Loving the thoughts bro. I’m behind, took me a long time to bang out a winning ncaa card so havnt did much work on this. Gonna pull a long night!
My 1st lineups im all bout falcons stacks so with ya there. I got some Ryan, pitts, Ridley, and Patterson (he way cheaper on DK than FD). Not as interested in fish, I know ideally we need them to do some scoring as well but I love atl in this game, the spot with fish being the only team I ever recall not getting bye after London, while atl is coming off their bye after London! All the watson rumors circling can’t be good for Tua or team chemistry (I’m actually betting atl which a rare side for me these days!). I still think this falcons team has potential especially on the offensive side, think London vs jets then bye came at a perfect time, I suspect they start looking better in this offense. Remember they choose not to play starters in preseason which I thought was odd considering the new coach and offensive system. They will prob look awful since I love this play and that usually means failure for me in nfl!! Lol
My 1st lineups im all bout falcons stacks so with ya there. I got some Ryan, pitts, Ridley, and Patterson (he way cheaper on DK than FD). Not as interested in fish, I know ideally we need them to do some scoring as well but I love atl in this game, the spot with fish being the only team I ever recall not getting bye after London, while atl is coming off their bye after London! All the watson rumors circling can’t be good for Tua or team chemistry (I’m actually betting atl which a rare side for me these days!). I still think this falcons team has potential especially on the offensive side, think London vs jets then bye came at a perfect time, I suspect they start looking better in this offense. Remember they choose not to play starters in preseason which I thought was odd considering the new coach and offensive system. They will prob look awful since I love this play and that usually means failure for me in nfl!! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d love to try anderson again but the mfer has developed a case of stone hands! Maybe he was just shocked to get ball thrown his way and hit him? I dunno. I weary of panthers this week, I have a sneaky suspicion this one these gmen games where they win and fuck every square backing panthers. I know my 1st reaction was to bet panthers and my 1st reaction on 1st gane that pops is very square and usually very wrong! Luckily I’ve learned to use this as a weapon instead of a detriment!! Lol. If I’m right then this will be a ugly ass game with very few guys scoring big points. I certainly don’t see Gmen going all high powered offense to win!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
agree with you from a betting perspective cincy with the points gotta be the play, more because their defense has been surprisingly good. i dont think we see a lot of big numbers from anyone, id expect both qbs to be solid but not spectacular as this has hard nosed afc north battle written all over it. not that both qbs cant appraoch 20 points but i dont see monster games unless lamar has a day on the ground which possible, think borrow be in the 250-270 range, maybe 2 tds. i would avoid chase, just cause id think ravens focus on him and secondary gettting healthy,, agree higgens might be worth a flyer if ya wanna be sneaky or maybe bungal te but for most part ill be avoiding this game.. should be a heck of a game tho!! im very tempted to bet cincy with the points.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i find myself wanting some mckissic, id suspect packers do what they do best and score early and eventually put washignton into pass mode which makes mckissic a 5k upside wr in a rb slot which i dont mind,, havnt looked at packers numbers defending backs in passing game but i recall perine having a pretty good game against them with less snaps than mckissic might see in 2nd half.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im interested in having some Hurts/goedert now that ertz is out of town i think this becomes a good combo, the things hurts does well sets up for the te to be open a lot! i really wish i understood why philly refuses to get sanders or any run game going? i think he so talented and think he could do some real damage here but how can you trust him to get enough touches? you cant even expect 15 and if that dude on my team he getting 20+ almost every week, they have to be retarded or something, they must come from the same stupid tree as the ncst coaching staff who rather throw 50x with a average qb than get his best 2 players the ball 15-20x!!! im sure they have some very smart analytics telling them throwing it is more efficient or some crap!!!!
my guy quez watkins is super cheap, one these days he gonna show out with a couple djax type tds, i can smell it!!! obviously not a guy to hang your hat on but he will find his way onto 1-2 my teams..
henderson will be heavily used for me once again, he keeps being priced a few k below the top guys but he looks like a top guy to me and he in a offense that always gonna score points, and he a factor in the passing game, nothing not to like.. i think this a woods day, kupp the man and will get his but for the price difference and fact woods didnt see many targets last week id suspect they make a more concerted effort to feed him early, kinda like the seattle game as they have to be careful not to have him catching feelings with kupp having another monster game last week. hoping this turns into a pattern and weeks after kupp goes crazy and woods numbers way down im gonna look to play his over props along with using in dfs.. gotta assume stafford would like to have a good game so woods getting 10+ targets working on lions lessor corner should produce numbers. the beauty of this of course is woods props are really low if we can pick out weeks he getting 10 targets, if that happens he blowing past over 5 catches and 64.5 yards!!!i ill be playing both of those. henderson over 20.5 receiving yards as well, the 2 weeks he didnt hit that he had 1 catch for 17 yards in each, think odds are good most weeks he catches more than the single pass and he likely to get a nice pickup on at least one of those. mixon abused the ;lions catching passes and getting bunch of yards after he caught them last week! swift continues to be a pass catching machine and lions sure to be trailing but books have gotten wise to him with a 5.5 reception total, no thanks,
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
so here all the props i played:
Henderson over 19.5 receiving yards (biggest play)
w0oods over 64.5 receiving yards
pits over 49.5 receiving yards
Goedert over 48.5 receiving yards
hopkins over 71.5 receiving yards
AJ brownb over 61.5 receiving yards
think that all of them!! lol..
team totals:
kc over 31.5
titans over 26.5
NBA 3 point props (very new to this but i am 5-1 so far with the only loss coming on Dame last night cause he sat on bench last 15 min as portland had a huge lead, i hadnt really considering that yet as im very new to these!):
joe harris over 2.5
Harden over 2.5
bron over 2.5.. he has come out firing from deep this year and been on fire, he did this same thing the beginning of last season, think he knows it be better to rest his body during regular season and let Russ do all the attacking the rim!!! might as well get it while the getting good!!!!
that it for me,,, gl everyone
Henderson over 19.5 receiving yards (biggest play)
w0oods over 64.5 receiving yards
pits over 49.5 receiving yards
Goedert over 48.5 receiving yards
hopkins over 71.5 receiving yards
AJ brownb over 61.5 receiving yards
think that all of them!! lol..
team totals:
kc over 31.5
titans over 26.5
NBA 3 point props (very new to this but i am 5-1 so far with the only loss coming on Dame last night cause he sat on bench last 15 min as portland had a huge lead, i hadnt really considering that yet as im very new to these!):
joe harris over 2.5
Harden over 2.5
bron over 2.5.. he has come out firing from deep this year and been on fire, he did this same thing the beginning of last season, think he knows it be better to rest his body during regular season and let Russ do all the attacking the rim!!! might as well get it while the getting good!!!!
that it for me,,, gl everyone
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
goff u 266.5 pass yds and henry u 147.5 rush/rec yds (holding my nose) only props i got today
2daBank
Voice of Reason
thoughts on kc other wrs not named cheetah? i saw the scopey post about robinson out snapping hardman but i also see titans are terrible defending the slot, which one those guys lines up in slot the most? i know pringle is there 70% of his snaps but not sure how many snaps he get? anyone have a good idea which most likely to get the slot work? i know Ried does a great job putting everyone in that spot so makes it tough!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
oh man,, up to this point i been more a over or pass guy.. only unders been the prime time games where i couldnt simply move on to another game.. hit brady under against philly but it was super close and scary as he had like 200 by halftime!! gl
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
obviously Kelce gets slot work. I've been debating throwing Pringle in some DFS lineups as a cheap option
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
it's tough these days with defense being practically nonexistent lol but i've been trying to lean towards unders this year. so many variables can skew towards unders- injuries, game script, coaching, etc.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i feel ya,, if you remember back in the day at the other place total unders used to be the plays i liked the best!! but that was on the cusp of all the rule changes and shit,, took me a year and a half of getting abused before i figured out identifying low scoring defensive battles was a thing of the past!! lol. these days i think books have caught up and you can play some unders again but still not the same and scary as hell!! that said im on the panthers/nyg 1st half under 21 along with gmen,, i have kinda swore off betting nfl sides and totals but this just screams one these perfect NFL fuck the masses games.. gmen already did it once in the big easy and think it coming against today against a panthers team who has kinda sucked without mccaffery!! gmen missing all their weapons, been getting destroyed last few, line comes out less than 3 and every asshole starts slobbering of idea of the free money panthers!!! not gonna lie, panthers was 1sgt game i liked when seeing card 1st time, i know how square and usually wrong my 1st instinct when seeing nfl card is!!! lol. i have learned to take advantage of that!! lol
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
1pm props I like
D. Adams O96.5 (GB)
D. Robinson O20.5 (KC)
D. Pettis O37.5 (NYG or go slayton)
J. Waddle O56.5 (MIA --- looked for ridley too)
4pm props I like
J. Williams O7.5 (DET)
D. Goedert O49.5 (PHI)
L. Fournette O100.5 (TBB)
1PM Sides I like
CAR/NYG o43
CIN/BAL u46
NYJ +7
ATL/MIA o48
D. Adams O96.5 (GB)
D. Robinson O20.5 (KC)
D. Pettis O37.5 (NYG or go slayton)
J. Waddle O56.5 (MIA --- looked for ridley too)
4pm props I like
J. Williams O7.5 (DET)
D. Goedert O49.5 (PHI)
L. Fournette O100.5 (TBB)
1PM Sides I like
CAR/NYG o43
CIN/BAL u46
NYJ +7
ATL/MIA o48
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Like that over in Miami. Oppo on the panthers/nyg but only 1st half under for me. So we could both win! I was scared to take adams over but dunno why? I tried to use him in as many lineups I could afford but was tough when wanted Henry and mahomes also
Easy winner on aj brown…
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pitts won’t be long! Glad you got me to split kc tt over and buy some Titans tt over as well!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
ugh bad pick, but of course was to 2.5K smythe!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Mahomes is killin me, I swear I suck at picking QBs! What happened to last week when I asked you guys to give me QBs?!!?!! I wasn’t joking!
Yesterday I was so close in a few $3 ncaa tourneys with bout 3k ppl. I staked wake qb with his top 2 wrs but didn’t use them together, know why? Cause couldnt afford, In super flex I used Texas tech qb against a k-st pass d that had allowed 75% completions on year, he scored 6 fuckinb points! And I still finished 8th and 42! Would have been 1st and top 5 had I just used wr in that spot. Rarely play ncaa ones so didn’t give bunch of thought, assumed using 2nd qb in super flex was a must but not really at all! Those wrs scored 30 and 40!
Yesterday I was so close in a few $3 ncaa tourneys with bout 3k ppl. I staked wake qb with his top 2 wrs but didn’t use them together, know why? Cause couldnt afford, In super flex I used Texas tech qb against a k-st pass d that had allowed 75% completions on year, he scored 6 fuckinb points! And I still finished 8th and 42! Would have been 1st and top 5 had I just used wr in that spot. Rarely play ncaa ones so didn’t give bunch of thought, assumed using 2nd qb in super flex was a must but not really at all! Those wrs scored 30 and 40!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I whiffed hard on chase. What sucks is I use him so often!!! Really thought ravens would take him out of game. Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pretty good day. Missed Henderson by a fuckin yard and he woulda closed out a handful of tickets for me. Don’t even want to talk or think about how much I woulda won had he fought for one more damn yard!! Fuck, I can’t stop thinking bout and checking other sites to see if he really had 19 yards and not 20 yards?!?!??!??! Rams even threw it once to try and get 1st down to run rest off clock but threw to te! There not enough drugs to make me forget and move on from This ending . Lol,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m a little nervous Collins pulls up lame. Only reason I wouldn’t play over carries or yards. That weather prob not ideal for a groin strain. He didn’t practice all week till Saturday. Over carries be a lock if he stays healthy! Pete prob likes Russ being out cause he can run all he wants without getting any the “let Russ cook” backlash! My guess is they hand it off 35+ times tonight assuming they don’t fall behind early which you wouldn’t think happen at home in this weather.
Gonna see how expensive it is for kumara anytime td, or maybe even over 1.5/“at least” 2 option if 1 too expensive. He only has 1 freaking rushing td on the year, that nuts, he has caught a few so only 1 game without a td, gotta figure he bout due to bust out for a couple scores. Plus Hill gone now so he won’t be stealing any the goal line work!
Seeing -200 for at least 1. Over 1.5 tds @ +250
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hmm. Thinking I might parlay 1 with one my nba over 3 pointer props (man these things are nice! Lebron been a gravy train at 2.5 + money or even!), I’ll prob be looking at Anthony edwards from timber wolves tonight, his number been 2.5 every game and thus far be shot 12 of them one game and 8 the next, appears to me he gonna be getting off 8+ a night, last year he averaged making 2.4 a gm on over 7 per game, he projected to shoot 7.8 a game this year but that feels low to me, he really starting to come into his own so I’ll be hitting this one until it starts getting high juice. Only worry tonight is they facing same team b2b games, don’t love that. There some good options in the Denver/utah game also!
Then take the +250 for ov1,5 by itself. He bound to start adding to that rushing total sooner than later.
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rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Planned on parlaying Kamara TD + Saints ML
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