Week 7 College Football Plays/Thoughts

[Marlo]

89-81 +15.3 Units
8-12-2-2.10
97-93-2 + 13.20

Played the under on Tuesday night, and have Wake +1.5 and the under in tonights game, but will not add to record because I didn't post either.

Big Ten

Purdue Vs Ohio State
For everything I have seen out of both teams this year, when I first saw this line I liked it. Ohio State in my humble opinion will not cover big spreads this year. Purdue didn't play great last week, but they also didn't play terrible. Painter needs to show up in this game. I know Purdue hasn't beaten a ranked opponent in forever, but I don't need them to win, just to cover. Historically (i know this doesnt mean shit to many) they have played this game pretty close. Tough one to swallow as Purdue's defense has given up a ton of yards this year.

Purdue +18 1.1-1

Ohio State 27- Purdue 17

Michigan/Toldedo
Every Since Toledo got there hopes crushed by Fresno 3 weeks ago they have lost there rhythm. There offense has been terrible 3ypc vs Flint, and .7 yards per carry vs Ball State. Now they have to go into the Big House after there defense gave up 45 to Illy. Michigans running game should eat up a ton of clock in this one, and there defense will have no problem with the anemic Toledo offense.

Under 51.5 2.2-2

Toledo TT Under 17.5 1.15-1

Northwestern/Michigan State
Both teams have power running attacks, both teams can score on offense. Both teams have good quarterbacks. But both teams also can stop the other team on defense pretty damn well. Few things here, I see alot coming from both runnings attacks. I also like Northwestern's spread attack vs Michigan Stat...see MSU vs IU and MSU vs Cal. Both teams should get into the 20's in this game with there offense.

Lean hard here to Northwestern, but no play.

28-24


Over 46.5 1.1-1

Illy/Minnesota
Yes Minnesota is 5-1, but trust me they are not that good yet. Minnesota has beaten 3 teams this year that kicked there ass last year. Adam Weber and Eric Decker are a great 1-2 tandem. I believe Decker is actually leading the country in recieving yards. Our defense is improved over last year, but there still not great. We stopped a poor Indiana team last week, but we still gave up a big play from Lewis to Thygpen. Believe me this team as not as good as the record says. Brewster does have his team believing and he has them brewing with confidence. Minnesota covered against Ohio State, but that game was not as close as the final score. Juice Williams should have a field day 2 weeks in a row, only this week he gets a much weaker defense then he played last week. Both teams like to spread the field, and Illy's defense isn't anything great, but all you have to do is shut down Decker and make Weber find his other targets and you have yourself a 2 TD win here.

Illinois -11 2.2-2

Indiana/Iowa
Under 46. 1.1-1


Other Big 10 leans
NW ML
Indiana + the points
Wisky ML and the points

More to come.

 

[Mags]

MARLO! What up? Like most of them (plays and leans), only disagree with Indiana and NW. BOL to ya bro!

 

[Marlo]

Thanks Mags.

No play for me on Indiana/Iowa. I truly believe Iowa is the better team, they have a better running game and a better defense. But no one can deny the last weeks have had to kill them. I'm guessing there confidence is a bit drained right now. I watched Indiana twice vs Ball State and vs Minny. I haven't been impressed with either performance. They seem to rely heavily on the big play far to often. With that being said, if Indiana wants to stop Iowa I think they stack the box and make Greene beat them. Because I don't have a ton of confidence in Stanzi.

Spread offense's have caused problems for MSU this year. And a person has to think sooner or later Ringer slows down from all the abuse. Granted this is the time of year where the pretenders start to fall, and the legit teams shine.

I think if MSU wins this game its by a FG, because they definately have the egde there, and really don't think NW Ml has alot of value, hence the lean.

 

[CapTwo]

u SOB!!!

im probably locking in on that toledo/michigan under tonight...
maybe ill take the over now??? jk

had some thoughts in D$'s thread but basically you shut down the run, you shut out toledo. ball state did it last week and michigan definitely has the tools to do the same.....

good luck on em bro no opinion on the rest, not a big10 guy

 

[Marlo]

SEC

Florida/LSU
Coming into the this season Florida was the team to Fear. This year they have rolled over opponents except for Mississippi who beat Florida after Florida couldn't hold onto the ball. I watched them cruise to a pretty easy win and cover against Miami. As well as a win and easy cover against Tennessee. This will be a big test for both teams. LSU has played Auburn, which helps them more than it hurts them in this big game atmosphere. Jarret Lee will have to be cool and calm in the swamp. Charles Scott will continue to run the ball well, and the Tigers defense should hold a slowed up Percy harvin, and Tim Tebow down.

LSU +6.5 1.1-1

Georgia/Tennessee
Tenn, is a team that just hasn't lived up to there own hype coming into this game. There offense is stagnant, across the board there all playing terrible. A offensive line that was great last year, has been less than this year. Now add the fact that Georgia's defense has played very for the exception of one major hick up in the Alabama game in the first half. Add in that Tennessee over there last 3 games are 3-13, 4-11, and 4-14 in there last three games on third down, shows that this team can't sustain long drives to put points on the board. There defense gave up 146, and 224 rushing yards to both Florida and Auburn. Stafford has played flawless this year, throwing 0 interceptions. Moreno is averaging 7.3 yards a carry with 10 tds on the year. Throw in a revenge game for UGA, and this has all the makings of a 2 TD route. As long as UGA gets to 21-24 I see a cover.

UGA 24-UT 7

UGA-12 1.1-1

 

[scraps@midnight]

good luck marlo. like lsu.

 

[RetroVK]

Great thread marlo.

one sentence did confuse me though ......

I watched them cruise to a pretty easy win and cover against Miami.

??? you mean you saw the cruise to an easy win but that they got one of the three luckiest covers of the year ? Assume i am reading the sentence wrong.

 

[B.A.R.]

The only thing I worry about in that Illinois game is letdown after last week. That was a big win mentally for that program.

 

[Marlo]

Great thread marlo.

one sentence did confuse me though ......

I watched them cruise to a pretty easy win and cover against Miami.

??? you mean you saw the cruise to an easy win but that they got one of the three luckiest covers of the year ? Assume i am reading the sentence wrong.

I even chuckled when I wrote that. I remember I was talking to Gurv on IM he had Miami, and he said quite a few %%%% words when they kicked that field goal.

 

[Marlo]

The only thing I worry about in that Illinois game is letdown after last week. That was a big win mentally for that program.

Reno

Your absolutely right, but they had the big game the week before with Penn St, and one could say...last weekend could have been a minor letdown....but then again it was at the big house........so my take
Minny is pretty one dimensional. We start running the ball to set up the pass. We haven't played any really good defenses besides tOSU. They shut down Decker, and dominated the maroon and gold. There on there 2 or 3rd string running back who is a true freshman, and is stopable. On the flipside we haven't play many great offenses either. Juice should have a big game with out even trying. This is easily a 42-21, 38-24 type game.

But bottom Line, you stop the Weber/Decker connection, you stop this team.

We have had alot of moral victories this year, but this week won't be one of them.

 

[Marlo]

Big XII

Oklahoma/Texas
Battle of the Big XII titans. It could be safe to say that Texas hasn't been challenged yet this year. It's also safe to say besides an easy victory over TCU that Oklahoma hasn't been challenged yet either. Alot of discussion has been made about this game. I like Oklahoma because I think they have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma's front 7 on each side of the ball will win the battle of the trenches. Bradford should solidfy himself as a heisman front runner this week. I read an interesting stat that out of the 68 points Oklahoma as allowed, 38 of those have been given up during garbage time, when the game was well out of reach. We all know this game besides once in the last ten years has been decided by DD. As long as Oklahoma can contain Okrapo and the rest of Texas D up front, and allow Bradford to exploit Texas's secondary they should move the fall forward instead of backwords I see a win and cover by Oklahoma.

Oklahoma 35-Texas 24

Oklahoma -6 1.1-1

Colorado/Kansas
I just don't think Kansas is 14 pts better than anyone this year. Granted Colorado has had there problems the last few games. Kansas has Oklahoma on deck. Colorado should be up after getting ripped by there coach after last weeks loss to Texas. Hawkins made some stupid mistakes in the last couple of games. Kansas was down and had to battle back last week to get a big win. Historically Colorado has won or kept this game close, including last year when Kansas was at there peak. Could be a upset but I will take 2 TDs here.

Colorado +14 1.1-1

Oklahoma St/Missouri
Both teams have bend don't break defenses. Both teams have offenses that can and will control games. Big game on deck for Missouri that alot of people have been talking about. Both teams averaging in the 50's. 14.5 was the what I was waiting for.

Over 77 1.1-1
Oklahoma St +14.5 1.1-1


Texas Tech/Nebraska
Chants last weekend in Kansas St that TT is overrated only added fuel to the fire for the offense. TT has dominated there opponents at home and on the road this year. TT is the team that handed Nebraska its worst defeat in school history. Motivation no doubt for Nebraska, but they had there oppurtunity last year to get revenge. Nebraska goes on the road for the first time this year, to face the toughest offense in the country. I've read a bunch of stuff about TT defense not getting any credit for stopping other teams. I think Missouri did a great job of showing that Harrell can and will pass all over these guys.

Texas Tech -21 1.1-1

 

[buckeyeburritos]

looks good Marlo, I'm on Purdue

 

[Dmoney416]

BOL today Marlo - good grab on the Toledo TT under. Have to like that hook.

 

[E.T.G.]

good luck 2day, u got some solid picks/thoughts

 

[Marlo]

Thanks Fellas, good luck to you all.

 

[cogenman]

GL on those plays Marlo.

 

[Marlo]

CUSA

Tulsa vs SMU
David Johnson has been the quarterback don't body is talking about. He had put up 23 touchdowns already this year. Tulsa is averaging 56 points a game, and beating there opponents by an average of 32 points a game. SMU has been terrible this year, Bo Mitchell has gone through growing pains this year throwing 15 interceptions. SMU is giving up almost 500 yards a game of total offense, and 41pts per tilt. Tulsa shoud benefit from SMU lack of defense, and SMU turnovers. Tulsa names the score in this one.

Tulsa -24.5 1.1-1
Tulsa 1st half -13.5 1.15-1

 

[Marlo]

Big East

West Virginia Vs Syracuse
Basically a play on Cuse to keep it close to the number, because of Pat White being out. Cuse should have an easier time keying on Devine. Just can't see a team averaging 23 pts per tilt, covering that same # against another team however bad that team is with out there top player on the field.

Syracuse +23 1.1-1

Rutgers/Cinci
Cinci offense has taken a step back from earlier in the season when they were scoring alot of points. That usually happens when you lose your top 3 quarterbacks on the year. Chaz Anderson is in just his 2nd game of his career, and looked good against Marshall last week. Rutgers offense has been anemic since losing Ray Rice last year. I lik Cinci's defense to control Rutgers, and Rutgers defense to keep Cinci's offense in check. Alot of trends support this play as well.

Rutgers/Cinci Under 48 2.2-2

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck Marlo . I may actually ride Nebraska here . One team off a perfect game and another off an televised embarrassment . Nebraska can score on the TT defense IMO ...agree with most . One that I would be scared off is the Iowa under . Iowa's offense has been turnover prone with 8 alone past 2 games . Indiana's defense has been shredded even last week @ minny that game should have seen at least 28+ but Minny content to just chew up the 4th Q on the ground . Indiana's offense living on the big play lately as they have 3 + 70yders last 2 games but Lewis also has played well in his past2 starts vs Iowa . Thinking at least 24-17 game which of course works for you but that seems like the low end ...

BOL

 

[Marlo]

2nd half plays posted "over" there

Illy/Minny Under 28 1.15-1
Cinci -3 1.1-1
Cuse +10 1.1-1

Also put in ND +8.5 1.1-1

 

[JPicks]

GL this week Marlo.