Week 7 CFB

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Okay I'll make this my thread for the entire weeks games.

had no balls last week and fucked up my unit spacing but still was positive...Which pisses me off cause I should be doing better and I will....

Everyone has one and I was glossing over the card-

Play of the Week

Auburn see -1.5 -101 or ML -119 but should get cheaper. (12x)

It is late and without getting into. Huge win for Florida this week against LSU coupled with a shit performance vs Arkansas gives us a soft number.

Remember Florida barely was able to win @ Tenny and Auburn is a tougher venue. Now Wynn status is still a question but FLA didnt have much of a running game this past week. They cant win on the road being one dimensional. Florida off such a tremendous win and now traveling while Auburn gets upset at home and doesnt have to travel.

What you have to love and why I say this line is SOFT is easy . Auburn hosted LSU as 3.5 pt chalk and won 7-3. Florida hosted LSU as -1 pt chalk and won 23-10. So both teams won but I guess Fla did so a bit more convincingly. Now the earlier LSU lines indicate that Auburn is 2.5 pts stronger then FLA but with home field you are talking AUburn -5.5 or -6. Now since I said its possible the FLA line was somewhat soft you can take it down to Auburn should be -4 or -4.5 here...so anything less then -4 presents extreme value IMHO.

Havent gone over this entirely but seems real basic and logically. Waiting to see if this goes to a PK but I owuld be careful cause I would expect this to close at -3...just as strong as my Bronco play on monday. Only difference is know the NFL so much better then college..

Good Luck more to come about this game and the rest of the card.......:cheers:
 
I think this line moves to the other side to actually ive you a point or two by the end of the week. At least I hope it does...heh. I suggest waiting (I know you said you are) and getting better numbers. GL, bro.
 
Wow...shocking. I might be on Florida but waiting for a few more intangibles to kick in...GL man and nice writeup.
 
What makes you say that auburn is 2.5 points better? Are you going on preseason rankings? LSU beat Auburn up badly, and anyone who watched that game said LSU was the better team. Auburn still hasnt recovered emptionally and physcially from it, thats all the coaches have talked about is how sore they were from it. They snuck by south carolina and got beat really badly by a piss poor Arkansas team led by a true freshman qb. The game honestly wasnt even as close as the stats indicate. I am trying to figure out how can you make that statement? Auburn hasnt been able to throw the ball at all this year. Its a huge game for auburn though since they cant lose another game in the sec.
 
Besides that LSU game which they scored a whoppin 7 points and threw for a measly 110 yards, auburn has beaten buffalo washington st and miss st and south carolina. Im just saying maybe this team was overrated. I liked cox a lot coming into this year but the offense hasnt done shit yet to impress me, not even kenny irons and lester.
 
I was wondering what happened to you at Covers. Nice to see you still posting somewhere.

Thinking about the Tigers myself, Florida got a couple huge breaks last week to win that game.

GL buddy
 
Irons was really affected by that turf toe vs Arky...he wasn't breaking tackles and showing the burst he has had this year....

I would monitor is injury for sure..
 
J Galt said:
I was wondering what happened to you at Covers. Nice to see you still posting somewhere.

Thinking about the Tigers myself, Florida got a couple huge breaks last week to win that game.

GL buddy
Click to expand...

Welcome to the board bro...

:cheers:
 
J Galt said:
I was wondering what happened to you at Covers. Nice to see you still posting somewhere.

Thinking about the Tigers myself, Florida got a couple huge breaks last week to win that game.

GL buddy
Click to expand...

Lookin at the drive charts.. Florida did have an 8 play 80 yard drive for a td and a 10 play 76 yard drive for td as well as a 56 yard drive for a td

Not sure if florida was 'lucky' on that given day. They did average 6.6 yards per play.. :shake: BTW Im not on florida this week, i just think people need to give them some credit.
 
Mista ~
I'll be reading your thoughts on the game. Love the spot. GL

Jump ~ Thats going to be one of thos ethings thats hard to gage IMO. A 75 % Irons verus Wynn for FLA being questionable...


JGalt ~ Some Mods at covers had it our for me IMO. I was told some people have a quick trigger over there. However I mentioned I was probably no longer going to start threads at covers and just post on my blog. At Covers you cant say anything I guess and I was banned for that..mentioning my blog. However since I have glossed thru some threads and I see people talking about there blogs and nothing happens. Odd to me. All I know is post to be helpful and thast all I ever was at Covers. Did Covers really think they are hurting me in some fashion by banning me? I did more for that site then they ever did for me.. which isnt hard cause they did nothing. Welcome aboard and make your presence known. GL!

ABC's ~

this is something I preach. pay attention to the lines teams are assigned and understand why they are set that way so you know why they are adjusted.

Why do I say they are 2.5 pts better? Well first dont ever disrespect me again and say I use rankings whether its preseason , statistically rankings in my capping! I am kidding!!!!! Ranking equal useless numbers though.

What I am using is Auburn @ home being -3.5 to LSU. Yes they didnt play great but they won and covered which says the line was FAIR. Florida hosted LSU last week and was -1. If one team is -3.5 and the other is -1 that makes one team 2.5 stronger in spread talk. maybe the line was off a point or two..

So Auburn is -2.5 points stronger plus add 3.5 pts for home field..gives you Auburn -6 but as said the last line COULD have been of a point or two and that makes Auburn -4 or -5...thats how I make my lines ...no power rankings , no stats ..just use what linesmakers give me. I have been successful doing so in every sport.

its fine and dandy that LSU outplayed Auburn but they lost and didnt cover. They also scored 3 points . So the whole betting public can say LSU is better and thats why they lose. They base there opinion on one game and mostly out of sour grapes cause many backed LSU and they walk away saying LSU should have covered. Just like people will say BALT should have covered last nite ...You lose ATS and 99.99 of the time it was cause you made the WRONG PLAY. So I would only be concerned about LSU play @ Auburn if people were overlooking it. Here they are just focusing on it with tunnel vision.

What has LSU done that your knocking Auburn's game. You can say what you want Auburn losing to Arkansas but it was the week before playing FLA. It could have been a look ahead situation and that first TD was a JOKE.

Now Florida coming off a big emotional home win against a team off a flat performance...nice situational aspect.

Florida's offense could be without Wynn and look at what they are scoring every game low 20's...they wont score that much @ Auburn. Fla struggled vs Bama at home and versus Tenny. If I recall they led throughout @ South Carolina...

Auburn got there bad game out of the way IMO......

JMHO!
 
Florida is not a good road team. They should have handled Tenny and couldn't do it and now have to goto a tougher field in Auburn vs. a very angry Auburn team. Auburn is becomming fade-worthy while Florida is cashing checks.... there is a ton of value here IMO with Auburn.

Florida has trouble with snap counts at home, let alone on the road. The second they have one the place will go crazy and make it tough on Leak all day. Florida was the beneficiary of every single possible break vs. LSU. I don't think they can count on that on the road here vs. a sound Auburn squad.
 
abcs--SMODOD said:
Lookin at the drive charts.. Florida did have an 8 play 80 yard drive for a td and a 10 play 76 yard drive for td as well as a 56 yard drive for a td

Not sure if florida was 'lucky' on that given day. They did average 6.6 yards per play.. :shake: BTW Im not on florida this week, i just think people need to give them some credit.
Click to expand...

Did you watch the game, though? In the 1st half, LSU really was able to move the ball on them. The play that should have been a TD that was called down and the flollowing play that was fumbled by the Tigers was really the deathblow. Russell played the worst game I've seen out of him in his time there, throwing a couple crucial INTs and not even showing up for the second half. I think the Gaytors were lucky to make it out of that one alive.

PS I had Florida for my biggest play of the year :wacka wacka:
 
Just thought I'd give my two cents on some of this.

I went to GA for undergrad and grad school and it never ceased to amaze me at how unpredictable the SEC can be.

On average, the SEC is the toughest conference in college football. I think the reason for this is simply that this is the sport of choice in the south, and thus High School football is also important down there. They grow football players like crops down there. Generally they want to stay in the south for college. (Look at the top 2 recruiting classes this year (FLA and GA)). My point being that SEC football is big money for all these schools. Every single win is huge in terms of grabbing hot high school prospects who are being courted, and in attendance at these games. Even "average" SEC teams will do everything they can to upset a big target or keep the game very very close.

Look what happened last Saturday. Nobody thought that TN would come into Sanford Stadium and put up 50+ points on the number 1 scoring defense. Now, I didnt believe that Stat on GA, but come on, they did go to SC and shut out Spurrier. That just never happens.

I did believe TN would cover the spread though.

Look what happened to Auburn. That was a shock to say the least. Nevertheless, look at the spread this week against FLA. That is a testemant to the respect that vegas gives SEC games. Florida has beaten two outstanding teams this year, the AP thinks they are number two, and still Auburn is at -1.

I keep my wallet away from calling SEC games ATS. I hadn't bet on an SEC team this year until last week when I took Auburn and SC. I broke my own rule and was lucky not to have lost both those. There are just way too many other college games that are easier to call for me. I do well as long as I stay away from SEC ones.

As for FLA vs Auburn. I feel that FLA +1 wins. But I surely wont be putting money on it. Too many other spreads I'm less nervous about.

That's my 2 cents. Been reading this forum for a while now, and appreciate all the posts. Nice place to go to get some perspective on teams I'm less familiar with.
 
I would back Florida too or just stand back.

Turns out LSU and AUBURN have both gotten way too much respect while Florida has been given very little once the season started.

Auburn is known for folding the years it is predicted to be very good.
 
Good stuff guys. I tend to prefer to be the minority. One bad game isnt going to change my opinion of a team.

Week nite-

Colorado State +6 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -125 CSU-AF (1x)

I dont have any great insight on this game. Havent seen either team play yet. Just didnt like how AF played versus Navy although giving the team a 7 pt headstart can sure make for an uphill battle. CSU has solid run defense numbers but versus AF we know its a bit different. Guess I am just expecting a defensive battle and thought the line would be around -3 or -4. Neither offense has gotten it going yet.

GL
 
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Like both plays Sportsnut...it's going to be hard for me to lay off of Auburn this week...I still think LSU is better than Florida but that hardly matters...the coaching at LSU sucks and Meyer won't have that advantage this week.

Miles will do to LSU what Coker has done to Miami (Fl); it'll just take a couple more years due to the boatload of talent that was left behind by Saban (and in Miami's case, Davis).

Auburn was done in by a power rush offense last week and looking ahead (IMO)...neither of those factors will come into play on the Plains this wknd.

Colorado St - Air Force, isn't this game always close? Be sure to check the weather. CSU will need to throw the ball to cover this game.
 
Thanks Horses.

I will check the weather its a great point .

I am not a hueg CFB fan or guru like alot of you guys are. So I dont follow soem of these programs all that closely. However I did notice as soon as Miles went to LSU how overmatched he looked coaching..so I agree with the Miami comparision.

With Auburn it just seemed on that big TD reception when it should have been an INT but the corner fell..just sicked the life out of them. I really think they took Arkansas lightily. If you watched them versus Bama how could you respect Mustain or the offense...

Love the situation and the price is getting so right.

I am looking at the VT-BC game.

I know VT is 12-1 last Thursdays...

What I am unsure of is alot of the injuries and suspensions VT has listed. Are those players out are returningdo you know? Ellis and Minor?

I see BC suspended there Kicker and that could be an issue with how VT gets after kicks. Generally I just unimpressed with the BC offense this year...they got lucky vs Clemson with alot of big plays in thr return game.

Any help would be appreciated..
 
Probably not playing this game except maybe a 1st H...

I think Clemson defense suffocates Temple and creates great field position. Which Clemson can use to run right through the defense. You get a Temple cover finally and a shit Clemson game to sort of make people think this is to high. Temple did catch 40 @ home vs Lville and still lose 62-0 as well 42 @ Minny and lose 61-0...so I amthinking 7 points might not happen for the improving Temple offense...Just a thought..1st H -24.5 -110 ..
 
I have been leaning towards UCF since the beginning but havent made a decision..

Pitt really hasnt played anyone...except Mich State. Syracuse is improving but Pitt didnt impress me there. Had Syr not fumbled a few times it could have been closer....olus a 70yd TD run...is more a fluke then a reflection of anything IMO.
 
Hey SN... back to the Auburn game... Jump had previously mentioned Iron's turf toe injury. I agree, it seemed to be hampering his ablity to cut against the Hogs. And I agree with your response, in that it's hard to gage an injury like that.... you never know when that toe will flare up to the point he cannot go, may it be some point before or during the game. I know he's wearing some type of custom made steel toe/shoe. Was just wondering if you'd heard anymore on his status (Irons)?? I liked the Tigers initially... but the Tebow/Leak tandem has been working out better than I had ever imagined. I'm not a huge fan of flip flopping QB's during the game... But Tebow just seems to give them that extra umph... the physical presence they've been lacking. gl with whatever you decide for Thursday
 
Thanks Hunt...hopefully its correct.

Grind ~ I havent heard anything on Irons. Like I said I cant get overly concerned with something like turf toe...you cant have every angle covered. I agree the b tandem has played well but if Wynn is out or less then 100% what running game do they have? Now +1...

Here are plays That I am looking at:

Just remember these are just intial looks after glossing over teh game and situation. Not after capping or disecting them.. So feel free to comment or question

Two dogs I have played are Texas A&M +2 and Wash St +9.

The rest just observations:

Army +5.5 seems to low but Huskies have stunk..

Northwestern +7 as Purdue playing 3rd straight away

Iowa -17.5 seemed to put it together last week

NCST -3.5 advantage being home after 2 upsets and long rest...Wake off collapse and no offense IMO

UNC +2.5 probably for the fact I am not sure USF should be favored away

Over 48 WV and +25 Cuse improving Orangeman can score enough to keep it close worse Marshall and MAryland teams got less points.

Under 49 Wisky suprised at Minnys defense so far and not sold on Wisky O yet.

Oklahoma -19 very iffy but Iowa State offense has never developed

Navy -1.5 cause I keep fading them and they keep making me look stupid,,still believe RU smoke and mirrors..

Ok St +3 Not sure why KU would be a FG here.

WMU +2.5 Huskies playing 3rd straight away all unimpressive and as chalk. Home dog plays defense

Tulsa -2

Smu -4 cant stand Marshall after they blew it vs UCF. They have no offense.

Utah -4 can Wyoming muster the points to be competitive.

Bama -15 This could be all defense here 31-14

Colorado +7 Buffs play some defense and I cant recall when I liked Tech as road chalk..

Mich St +14.5 ahhh Ohio State is good but not sure they are better then Michigan so this line seems high if the Spartans show up.

Under 52 UCLA with Olsen out offense could struggle and try to slow teh game down..impressed with the improvement on defense.

East Mich +11 ...Bowl Green and -11 is a fade

SJST -14....Utah State off home upset should be flat and score there usual 13 points..

Oregon State +9 we should have a flat WASH squad after getting jobbed at USC

Ill -6.5 Ohio has no offense and while it scares me Illini collapsed there offense has improved...

Over41 Miami one of these days this O has to score 35 +

Baylor +28.5 just think baylor is decent enough to compete and prove last year wasnt areflection of there team

Idaho +2 what has laTech done beat Nichols State!

SoMiss -2 questioning this line so maybe thinking about a contrarian play

Kansas State cause they always compete at home and NEB back to back conference road chalk...

Over 49 or 50 LSU...they seem to put 45 every home game and kentucky can score just break 40...

Penn State +6 Like the live dog here...Michigan without a weapon has tended to struggle on offense...see a FG game.

UTEP over 61 plenty a points it looks like but also might UTEP...

Thats my wish list so to speak....I wish I had these games capped already. So these are just initial thoughts

let me know what ya feeling!! Auburn +1 now!
 
Good looking card SN. Being from Chicago and an Illini alum, I must say that I LOVE your NW play (this is a good spot for NW, I was actually thinking ML play) but DREAD laying any money on my alma mater in the near future (they will be competitive next year MARK MY WORDS!!!!)

Love Syracuse too, this team is much better than people give them credit for. Also Iowa = thumbs up.

Good luck bud
 
I would wait on NCSU...in fact I am. hahaha.

I like Western Michigan this week. Northern Illinois on a short week...

If Wyoming holds to pattern, they will lose in OT on a missed PAT. But I'm not betting it this week, so they'll win outright.

I think I'm the only one, but I think Michigan St is in the midst of the yearly collapse and inexplicable crushing losses...it started with ND, continued with Illinois of all fucking teams, and it'll last the rest of the season...

La Tech finally has a shot at a team they're capable of beating...
I think that's where Utah St was last week...

SMU...Marshall should compete and have a chance. SMU's QB Willis is apparently a labeled and arrested fagbeater....hence the suspension (that's what the last article said, anyway). In today's PC climate, I really doubt he'll play. The long and short is that he's been indefinitely suspended. Willis is the stud who's held this offense together. I think even Marshall's offense should compete this time...
 
Thanks texan. Glad your from Chicago and endorsing Northwestern. I actually like how there defense has played and I think Wisky was just representive on 3rd straight away game. Purdue hasnt shown much especially to be a TD fav on teh road ina conference game..I 'll see where I cant get +7.5 the cheapest and play a small few on the ML for some added value.

With Syrcause they were hanging around till that 70 yard TD run and a few fumbles stalled some drives. I gotta think if WV gets up big they coast and get backdoored..sort of like the maryland game(terps fell short)...42 -17 is possibilty so I will aim for + 25.5.

Iowa seemed to right themselves last week and if they put up 38 it should be a safe play. Indiana was a TD dog to Illini where as Illy laid 24 @ Illini...thought this line should have been about -21...Indiana has looked bad at home and the O as well hasnt produced no matter who is at QB.

Lots of work to still do just wanted give peopel a jist of what I was looking at.....
 
red ~

hoping for -3 or better cause as we know Wolfpack as a fav is a mistake most of the time but this is real cheap IMO...and Wake could still be thinking about the 1 that got away...24 in the 4th....collapse!

Huskie on a short week vs a solid defense and they havent slowed anyone..short week playing 3rd straight away as well.

Just think Utah offense looked a bit better last week and Wyoming probably wont break 14.....

nah I think you could very well be right with Mich State. There always seems to be some choke effort that causes them to collapse. Just didt think I could take much from the Mich game...Wolverines are tough right now I expected them to cover 15....but getting 15 at home versus an offense that hasnt impressed me...I oculd see 31-21 type...at 9 or less I might have liked Buckeyes...when teams usually end a run vs the spread they continue to saty overvalued which I think is the case here...... is Ohio State 12 better then ND?

I agree with LaTech and Idaho was sound down on the list of possibilities....

I thank you for the reminder of the SMu QB situation....I agree Marshall could now be live....scratch SMU!

Thansk RED! GL
 
Sportsnut, honestly, I put this game on a 3 or 4 pt NCSU win. Chuck doesn't seem to like to blow anyone out even when he can. And as much adversity as this Wake team has eaten, they've still managed a surprisingly good record. I doubt it'll go below 3, and that's really what I want.

not sure a short week affects much especially cus Army has it too, but the huskies couldn't stop bridge abutment from moving...much less a stout rushing offense. And Army certainly has em on coaching and discipline. AND 5 Huskie players got tossed from the team this week. This can't help what is already a thin line.

I just don't understand this line at all.
 
I guess Army sorta has a bye week with a win over VMI last week, heh, but it's not a short week for either team...
 
I think red you have to look it like Uconn was only catching 6 @ USF...they were favored by about 6 at home to Wake. While they did lose they were also viewed on par with there opponents ..this nearly similiar UConn team did lay 11 @ Army last year and cruise to victory....so I remain cautious to if there is value unless UConn has just packed up and thats rare.....
 
okay, I can see that. How long before the books notice that Uconn has swiss cheese for defense? *shrug*

sure looks like they've packed it in to me...
 
Thanks pags and 3xChamps. GL

Red -

I am not exactly disagreeing with you really. I trust to beat into people's heads that linesmakers just dont adjust lines quickly. One bad game , two bad games they dont start changing up there numbers until they take a beating on them. I dont remember a ton of action on USF last week so that game probably didnt break them. Not that much movement this week...means people still are probably backing Uconn..

Now Uconn has clearly played alot worse then expected but it wasnt to the past 2 weeks theer defense looked like swiss cheese vs Navy and USF. Plus I am not sure those 5 suspensions mean all that much...I dont look into fully though.

If we see the Huskies of the past 2 weeks it could be another long day....however maybe the fact some guys were kicked off the team wakes he guys up...maybe the QB needing some playing time to get the rust off.....maybe Army just doesnt play well vs Uconn....

Only throwing things out there....but if you think Uconn is that dead...bangem! A few weeks ago this might have been -11...
 
Whoa. About Cuse... Marshall is probably just as good as Cuse and Cuse is NOWHERE near as good as MD. MD is at least running a system built around their recruits and players. Cuse is what... 3-17 their last 20? They haven't beat a Big East team in years! They have a decent RB, average OLINE and a bad QB all crammed into a spread offense when the players should be running a version of the option.

25 is a good moose # but the game will never be close.
 
Inspekdah ~

I just dont agree. Personally I dont see Marshall as on par with Syracuse. What has Marshall done this year. Lets give Cuse a pass in some aspects they changed coaches and year 1 was going to just be a carry over of the previous season. I didnt see Pitt doing anything impressive against Cuse...thats my opinion. They finally broke along run in the middle of the 3rd Q to gain some breathing room. However Cuse fumbled 3 times that game...

However with maryland I am more likely to agree they are equal. I would not say Maryland is clearly better...thats just me...

I never said I loved Cuse just I was thinking about it...WVU did look all that great vs ECU or Miss St. if Maryland idnt come out flat as hell maybe that could have been more competitive...

GL
 
Sportsnut, normally I'm not a "THE LINES MAKERS ARE STUPID" kind of guy...it's just in select few cases...

Hey, maybe Uconn surprises us all and wins by 2TDs.

GL this weekend.
 
Tonite

VaTech ML -138 (1x) possibly a 3x play
Under 43 -115 BC (1x)

Now I think a key here is BC's kicker being suspended. We all know about Tech's ability to block kicks and a SOPH walk on is getting the call. Now I understand Ryan Ohilger has missed 4 Fgs and 3 XP's...but if this walk on was any good wouldnt there have been some grumblings about benching Ohilger?

I know VaTech has done there usual beat up on the meek and fall flat on the face against there 1st real opponent. Lets remember two things Ellis was OUT on defense and GT is always a LIVE DOG.

What has BC done? They watched as Clemson and BYU beat themselves...games which BC won in OT. Look at the offense vs Clemson...only 320 yards on 75 plays...they got some big plays in the kicking game. Look at the offense at NCST....15 points.....at home vs Maine 22...even BYU which is an avg defense just 23 pts in regulation. They did get 490 yards on 75 plays...but BYU pass defense is poor IMO.

We know tech can and will play defense especially after a poor performance in which they had time to prepare...

I just think BC's win are smoke and mirrors...4-1 is close to being 2-3...

Clemson -24.5 1st H -109(1x) maybe 3x or Clem -44.

Temple has looked better past few weeks IMO due to the step down in class. Instead of playing a strong offense like Minnesota or top tier team like Louisville which they were losing 61-0 to....they saw Vandy , WMU and Kent St. All Solid teams with very average offenses...yet only did the home game vs kent look remotely competitive...Temple had a 10-7 lead but then looked upand was down 28-10.

Clemson is off a big 4th Q comeback vs Wake Forest and will find the Temple D to its liking. just look at the Clemson running agme and how poor the Temple run defense is. Stuckey is obviously out but the WRs still should have a huge edge overthe Temple DB's.

What flies under the radar is Clemson defense. Temple will struggle iMO to break 7 points and the Tiger D should giver the offense alot of short fields to work with...

Reasonable speaking is 28-3 @ Half that much to ask for? Lville and Minny had them 42-0 and 45 - @ Half...Louisville was a home game...Vandy had them 24-0 but they must have fell asleep and allowed a 78 yd TD run last play on the 1st H.

Colorado State +6 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -125 (1x)

Have to admit I am now concerned about this play. CSU will probably without 2 senior starters OL day and SS Stratton....two very key positions.

I had made this play original thinking this game should have been -4.5 and both teams had alot at stake here. I decided AF was getting to much respect for the Tenny showing...what have they done since? Hoped that a returning CSU defense familiar with the AF offense could help keep it in check with someone winning late 23-20.....now i am rethinking as I try to figure out the injuries.

Saturday-

Auburn now +2 -101 and +115 ML( will be 12x)

Northwestern +7.5 -115 (3x)

Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x)

Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)

Michigan State +14.5 -105 (3x)

Texas A&M +2 -101 (5x)

Wash State +9 -110 (5x)

Kansas State +10.5 -115 (3x)

Now I did miss some moves...

navy now -3 was -1.5
SJST now -16 was -14
Baylor was +28.5 now +26.5

Still looking at and watching the others....writeups will come...

Every game I have played was simply based on IMO the lines being off and the last 3 were the same logic. Def still on Navy even if I go ML...contemplating Baylor as I lost some key numbers..wavering on SJST..

Good Luck....keep the comments coming!
 
Red ~

Like I was saying I am not disagreeing . Your wise to think the linesmakers arent stupid. I am saying that if you are confident in Uconns demise fade them . I havent seen Uconn so I honestly dont know..obviously the boxscores present a less then flattering effort recently. I am saying maybe we still have value in fading Conn cause the public just hasnt caught on to truly how bad they are......Or they jsut arent as bad as we think they are...

Army might be clearly better...but its still Army and if they make this game a PK....I would still think they have alot more UConn money and they would be open to getting killed if the Huskies managed a SU win.....

Just trying to say outside of capping the game look at the whole picture...soft lines are out there because the BETTING PUBLIC doesnt realize it IMO.....

GL bro...enjoy the chats!
 
Alot of these lines are dropping .......

Add:
Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172 (1x)

Auburn +2 -105 (12x)

Close to pullin th trigger on

Penn State +6 and Under 41
Navy maybe ML -138
NCST -3 or so..(ML possibly)
 
Got busy and missed out on adding I might have done with the 7:30 games and for that reason I downgraded Colorado State 1x...so jusy 1x not 3x!
 
Probably the most unfulfilling 4-1 a person could ever have...+2.62 units

Really wish I didnt chicken out on CSU and added to my Clemson play..

Oh well....4-1 still aint bad!
 
Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?


Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite.

As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.


Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.

Just thought some who doubt logic would like to read this.
 
I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are.

you get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they started falling to pieces...

UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin SMith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....

Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......

Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)

I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....

GL
 
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