Week 7 CFB

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
I took a few lines early.

tOSU -16.5 (-110) 2 units
ASU +18 (+108) 2 units
Michigan -6.5 (-107) 2 units

Beyond these, I will likely not bet more spreads. ...course I said that last week, too. REGARDING NC STATE ...while the wolfpack is looking better and better, AND NCSU has a couple more days of prep, I would not lay a TD to Wake Forest this year with this team...not this week, anyway. NC State is a shitty fave to be betting. GL with it if you do. I'll just be a fan for that one...

I'll be talking about prospective MLs here. There are a few I like...

Colorado St @ Air Force
. This warrants more investigation. I expected to see Air Force as a small home dog here. I'm confused on this, so I'll spend some time on it, but Colorado St's been looking tough recently (perhaps its just the [lack of] opposition?). Perhaps AFA looks a lot better losing last week than CSU did winning...? Anyway, I'm going to take a long hard look at CSU.

Pittsburgh @ Central FL.
I may well eventually have a Pitt Spread ticket. So not a chance. Pitt is for real this year.

Wake Forest @ NC State. I mentioned above that I wouldn't lay the 6.5 here, but I also wouldn't fade NCSU at home SU. MAYBE wake +points, but not for the ML...I figure a 3-5 pt NCSU win.

Maryland @ UVA. I've seen UVA play. I'm not touching them til they show improvement against someone other than Duke.

South Florida @ UNC
. Grothe impressed me against rutgers. USF deserves to be the fave here, and unless the number is assinine, I'm not touching it.

Army @ Uconn. Here's a situation the Black Knights kinda like to win in. They're dogs, they're a better team (arguably, I guess), and Uconn both cannot stop the rush nor rush it themselves. Navy beat shit out of em with the rush, and Army will do the same thing. Well, I'm not sure the Huskies will give up 500 yards rushing, but 300 is a reasonable expectation... I'll take Army...it'll probably be 260ish, and I'll take it there.

Rutgers @ Navy.
Navy -1.5? That's fuckin interesting dude...it'll depend on the number I guess, but this should be a fun lil shootout...and value will almost certainly be with the dog.

Mizzou @ aTm. Not gading Mizzou right now. At least the Mizz are actually dogs this week.

Marshall @ SMU. Am I undrestimating SMU, overestimating Marshall, both, or is SMU being so much of a fave here just silly? At about 2:1, this might be a good shot.

Florida @ Auburn.
When's the last time Auburn lost twice in a row at home? Still, if this gets high enough, it may force a play.

Cal @ Wazzou. Not fading Cal this week - they're playing scary good football right now.

Vandy @ Georgia. UGA seems almost willing to lose to anyone at this point. If the price is right (in excess of 5.5:1), I may just do this.

tOSU @ Michigan St. Not even with Pete Rose's money. Am I the only one that remembers Michigan State's incredible collapses over the last few years? It started during the Notre Dame game this year. I'm fading them til they show they can deal with adversity. tOSU wins by 21 or more.

UCLA @ Oregon. As much as I shat on UCLA last week, they did manage to find the end zone several times. Perhaps they've gotten over the hump. Even if not, taking the better defense is a good way of playing these things. As long as the refs are fair (both teams are Pac10 this time), UCLA should be right in this game. This one should be up over 400, too. I like that in a ML...

dinner time. I'm only through page 2, so this is not a comprehensive list...

comments?
 
Houston is a dog at Southern Miss. I'll take that ML.


Idaho at Louie Tech. Is Idaho worth a dog play here?
 
Oh, and for you folks who give a shit about this...

Week 6.
9-11 spreads, 45%, -.14 units
5-9 ML dogs, 35.7% +1.27 units

so it was a marginally positive day.

Overall
spreads: 63-50-2, 54.8% +23.96 units
ML dogs: 25-35. 41.6% +24.2 units.
 
I would remind you folks that the same +10.5 opened at +410 last week...and that was a HOMEdog.
 
Well, here's where I am so far...

Army +190
Rutgers +111
UCLA +360
EMU +360
Houston +120


I would wait on a few, especially UCLA......but I have a few thigns to do this week, and I'm not going to be able to watch lines incessantly.
 
I was noticing that.

how far could this move go?

below 3, I might just have to play that...
 
Arizona @ Stanford. AZ -3.5 (-110) 4 units
Dropping points for better juice wouldn't have yielded me positive juice, and I didn't think it was worth the points this time.

Stanford is The Suck right now, and they've been steadily getting worse as the weeks progress. Tree's kids have been getting hurt, and there's no one else to step in...not that they were all that good to begin with... AZ is better than their record indicates...last week the game was much closer than the outcome...AZ damn near covered, but they gave up a pick 6
at the end of the 4th quarter sealing the deal.

whoops.

I do think Stanford would beat Temple, but it would be a hardfought game for em...This is really more of a stanford fade than an AZ bet, but I think this is the softest ass line out there this week. Tree can't stop the run, and they especially can't stop the pass, AND they can't reliably move the ball downfield for a FD...much less a TD.

Perhaps AZ gives up as many as 14pts worth of turnovers, but that's being generous, I think. The Wildcats should beat the ratfuck out of Tree even if Tuitama hasn't recovered yet...right now, Don Best has him as doubtful with a concussion, but his backup did a pretty good job against UCLA's defense...that's a tough opening, and it should be a bit easier against Stanford.

Anyway, good luck with your bets, guys. I'm trying desperately to steer clear of spreads, but there are 4 so far I couldn't get away from. Heh. GL.

I have also added a ML play

Rice +175

That's seven of those so far...we'll see how many more I take a fancy to.
 
I think so too, wolfpack17...or at worst by 3 or 4. But I have trouble betting the pack as faves, even at home. You probably understand the fear...heh.

SMU's QB was suspended last friday. It's apparently an "indefinite suspension". If there's a shred of truth to this story, methinks the boy won't be playing this weekend, either.

http://media.www.smudailycampus.com/media/storage/paper949/news/2006/10/06/News/Dpd-Report.Says.Willis.Incident.Is.Hate.Crime-2339947.shtml?sourcedomain=www.smudailycampus.com&MIIHost=media.collegepublisher.com

Do with this info what you will, folks.
 
I like the Arizona play an awful lot. I think there are a lot of good plays this week on some of the smaller schools, ones that aren't in the top 25...the top 25 games are too tough to call, IMO.

As for State, it's tough to tell. They are in letdown city, but they definitely outclass Wake Forest. If it gets to -3, I would get it in a second...but I would be pretty surprisd if it did.

By the way, just wanted to comment that I love your sig line combind with your avatar...makes me laugh almost every time...
 
Marshall +190

scdoggy is right over on covers in Matador's thread. I went ahead and took

Florida +115

I would not be surprised if this flips around by the end of the week.
 
Seabass said:
I like the Arizona play an awful lot. I think there are a lot of good plays this week on some of the smaller schools, ones that aren't in the top 25...the top 25 games are too tough to call, IMO.

I totally agree with this for the most part. I almost never wager on the marquee game...you know, the one the gamecenter bozos go to. In this case, though, I'm drowning in the Michigan Kool-Aid this year. I think they're an incredible team who should be #1. At least at #4 they're approaching it... I make most of my money by betting wacky lines with the MAC and SunBelt. Case in point last night...sure, NIU did win, but that line was stupid high by gametime. The teams in these conferences aren't all that better than each other, and any day any of them has a seemingly legitimate shot. So when I see +500 or more on one of these, even Florida Atlantic, I'll bet it. heh. That's where I find value...not in teams going against Texas, typically.

Seabass said:
As for State, it's tough to tell. They are in letdown city, but they definitely outclass Wake Forest. If it gets to -3, I would get it in a second...but I would be pretty surprisd if it did.

The Wolfpack absolutely stepped up play last week, and it's great to see for me as a fan and a bettor. This is absolutely a letdown spot for NCSU, though, as you say. Daniel Evans seems to be the real deal, tho... This game will be all about intangibles, and I'm not touching it until there's value in betting NCSU. I have trouble swallowing wake kool-aid after last week's absolute shitass meltdown. The deacs had that game in hand, and a WF win would have helped NCSU's position in the conference dramatically.


Seabass said:
By the way, just wanted to comment that I love your sig line combind with your avatar...makes me laugh almost every time...

....I live in Tennessee, too. That fucker will be reading a well-worded letter from me very soon. I am soooooo pissed about this recent horseshit legislation, I can't see straight sometimes.

Anyway, I'm glad you like it.

:shake:
 
redbearde - Any thoughts on Cal -7.5 this week? I'm all over the Golden Bears, as they continue to steam roll every team in their path since the Tennessee game. And how about USF -2.5 as a side? Tough not to love the bulls in that spot, though I'm a little weary considering North Carolina's brutal schedule thus far.

Also, any thoughts on Utah -4 or Pitt -10? Thanks in advance, and GL bud. :shake:
 
Aztec4Life said:
redbearde - Any thoughts on Cal -7.5 this week? I'm all over the Golden Bears, as they continue to steam roll every team in their path since the Tennessee game. And how about USF -2.5 as a side? Tough not to love the bulls in that spot, though I'm a little weary considering North Carolina's brutal schedule thus far.

Also, any thoughts on Utah -4 or Pitt -10? Thanks in advance, and GL bud. :shake:

Of all of those, I like Pitt the most. Twice I've tried to pull the trigger, and twice I backed off because it's pitt (coached by wanny) laying DD on the road. Pitt should win by 2-3 TDs. They outclass central florida on both sides of the ball. I'm just scared of the Wanny patented backdoor cover.

I'm giving serious thought to Wyoming, but I'm terrified of another missed PAT that costs me a game in OT. One saving grace is that Wyoming might be at home...anyway, I like Utah the least of those 4. I might just give Wyoming ML another shot...maybe.

Cal-7.5. This one's moved down for Cal (i think), and I think that might have more to do with the recent history of these two teams than the relative merits of the current teams. Wazzou played USC pretty damned well, and the cougs even had a good shot at winning, but Cal (imo) is undoubtedly the top of the Pac10 this year, and Cal's defense is definitely a step or two above USC's. After Pitt, I think this might be a good play, too...especially if you can somehow find it under a TD.

USF -2.5, well, you might have noticed that I'm something of a Smurf Village detractor this year...Bunting hasn't gotten the Heels up for anything since the great Furman win by the skin of their teeth.

Lemme put it this way, there's no fucking way in hell I would take UNC +2.5 or central florida +10.5. Wazzou +7.5, I could understand an argument for, but I would disagree with the idea. Cal -7.5, I would pretty much understand and agree with that bet. Utah -4...........not so much at all, and in fact I'm considering a Wyoming play.

Most of my plays have risen in value since I made the bets...whoops.

heh. GL this week.
 
Yeah, Cal opened at Cris and pinny at -9.5.

you might consider selling it as high as you can to get good juice.

Or wait...the line might even go lower. I'm pretty bad at guessing that, tho. I have tOSU -16.5 (-110)

hehe
 
tOSU -16.5 (-110) 2 units
ASU +18 (+108) 2 units
Michigan -6.5 (-107) 2 units
Arizona -3.5 (-110) 4 units
West Va 1H -13.5 (-105) 2 units
VPI & BC Under 42 (+100) 2 units

ML dogs

Colorado St +180
Army +190
Rutgers +111
UCLA +360
EMU +360
Rice +175
Houston +120
Marshall +190
Florida +115
Utah St +531
Tulane +456
W. Michigan +121


Geez. 12. need 5 wins. Good luck to me. I'll need it.
 
Contrary to popular opinion, peoples' wagers have zero effect on the game.

Even those who think it does would be screaming the "public" is all over wake. Doesn't mean they think the wolfpack will lose...just that they think the wolfpack won't cover. I honestly agree with that. Still waiting for UNDER -3.

=)
 
I look forward to your thread every week red, much like garfathers, keep up the great work!
 
That's high praise bro; thanks much. I haven't done much writing this week. After driving so much, I'm just really really tired. I'm seriously considering joining you fellas on that UM/PSU under...

hmmmm, Florida/Auburn has crossed over. I want more than +102, though. I can see this getting to Florida -2 or -2.5. Anyone think that's stupid? FL-3 would constitute a massive total move....but i should be able to get a great ML middle eventually...
 
RB, I'm thinking the Army play is one of the best plays of the week. You going to play ML on that one?
 
Already have the Black Knights at +190. It was the first line that jumped out at me. How the ruddy diseased rat fuck does Uconn lay points to anyone? I'm getting almost 2:1 on this game. I think Army has AT LEAST a 50-50 shot, and this is the situation Arm performs well at...underdogs to inferior teams.

I keep thinking back to that Kent St victory that Army hit me with in week 2....and then playing Aggie so close... This is a pretty damn good football team. Well, at least all things being relative it is. Sure, tOSU destroys them, but Army would at least hang in there with most anyone......except rice of course. Don't know what happened there.
 
I notice your not on BC tonight on the ML. kinda hard to believe considering they are at home and playing against the worst starting QB at VPI in 16 years.

starting kicker for BC was not gimme either, so a new kicker could be a blessing.
 
Tarheel, VPI may have their worst starting QB in 16 years, but I still don't give BC all that much chance of winning. It's awfully short odds in my mind to bother with this game. Anyway I have more than enough wagers for this week....GL!

Pags, thanks bro, you too.

Larice, yeah, I'm delighted. =)
 
Aztec...man...that is sooo cool. I may just have to play that.

Grind, thanks man. GL to you, too.
 
NC State -3 (-105)

if it goes lower, then I'll put another unit on this. Huge line move. Kookycrazy stuff.

Now, what's a legitimate expectation for Auburn ML? BetCris is at +115 and Pinny is at +118 right now, and I'm seriously considering going ahead and taking it...
 
redbearde said:
NC State -3 (-105)

if it goes lower, then I'll put another unit on this. Huge line move. Kookycrazy stuff.

Now, what's a legitimate expectation for Auburn ML? BetCris is at +115 and Pinny is at +118 right now, and I'm seriously considering going ahead and taking it...
'

Saw that and logged on. Yall must not work as you beat me to it.

GO PACK!
 
Pinny is down to 109, and Cris is still at 115. I'm not going to be able to watch close enough, so I went ahead and took

Auburn +115

It might just be McDonalds money to some of you, but I like no risk cash.
 
GL Redbearde, kudos on a good yr. and your performance in the Mat Invitational :shake: Somehow I got a feeling that cute little girl looks just like you. Have a good weekend!
 
Hey redbearde...have you considered Ball State ML +350 at all? I know Central Michigan looked good last week against Toledo, but I've been impressed with Ball State's passing game so far. Revenge game for Ball State as well. Ball State has won 4 of their last 6 against C. Mich, and 2 of their last 3 at C. Mich. C. Michigan is good against the run, but Ball State hardly runs the ball as is. I just think they have a legitimate shot at winning SU. Of course, the Cards passing defense is atrocious, and that's why they're 11 point underdogs. Still, good value IMO. :shake:

With you on Rutgers ML, BTW.
 
LOL. That cute little girl in my userpic is my son Matthias. Hahaha. That's funny. Thanks on the congrats - I think the only reason I'm up is that I won a "play of the year". I'm hoping for better and better, bro, but since I took another POY for tomorrow, perhaps I'll plummet in the rankings. Hope not...my real plays closely mimic my MI plays.

Aztec, Central Michigan/Ball St was one of those that jumped out at me as being about right for a line.....if not too low. I think Central Michigan outclasses ball st, ....and I'm unimpressed with Ball St's big win over barfalo last week. Perhaps you'll recall I had a Barfalo ticket...heh. Anyway, I think Ball St is near the bottom of the MAC, and while no team is all that much better (EMU/BGSU), I think this is one of those that the line is actually about right. I'm not sure how much I would want for this game......maybe something assinine like 5:1.

Even then I'm not sure I would. I have a lot of plays already, and if I had just stuck with my original plays last week, I'da been like 5-6 making a few units instead of just over 1 unit with a lot more losses...I find if I wager during the games I don't put the right thought through the plays. So I'm best off just leaving it alone. I have plenty in play already. =)

GL this week, Aztec. Let's win some this time!
 
tOSU -16.5 (-110) 2 units - W
ASU +18 (+108) 2 units - W
Michigan -6.5 (-107) 2 units - W
Arizona -3.5 (-110) 4 units - W
West Va 1H -13.5 (-105) 2 units - L
VPI & BC Under 42 (+100) 2 units - W
NC State -3 (-105) - L

spreads: 5-2, +7.96 units
overall: 68-52-2, 55.7% +31.92 units

ML dogs

Colorado St +180 - L
Army +190 - L
Rutgers +111 - W
UCLA +360 - L
EMU +360 - L
Rice +175 - W
Houston +120 - L
Marshall +190 - L
Florida +115 - L
Auburn +115 - W
Utah St +531 - L
Tulane +456 - L
W. Michigan +121 - W

ML dogs: 4-9, -3.78 units
overall: 29-44, 39.7% +20.42

I previously stated I need 5 wins. Actually, once I hedged Florida, I needed 6 and I got 4. Colorado St blew an 18pt halftime lead. Army gave up 2 huge plays early to get in a 14pt hole they never could climb out of. EMU was close. As I said, I bet on the bounce of the ball. You lose those more often than not, but at 3.6:1, it's unreasonable to expect 50%. Utah St blew a 14-7 first half lead. Tulane coughed up 3 turnovers in the first QUARTER - what a clever wager on my part...

It's a positive week...at least units wise (I did lose money - don't ask - but it wasn't that much), and yet again I confirm to myself that I should just trust my instincts...

anyway, I'm working on a reflections post...Perhaps that'll help get me better prepared for this week.
 
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