Week 7 CFB w/writeups......




Y

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
2005 Season

69-42-2 (62%)

2006 Season

86-52-2 (62%)


Ohio State OVER 10 wins (6-0)

What is up everybody? I had an pretty good week- I played just over .500 on the weekday games and then had a 15-7 weekend. I will lock these plays in now, and then fade, middle, or add more later. This way I ensure myself a better line on most of these plays. People often question on why I buy half of points? I do it because I bet through a local and it is only double juice. With that being said, here are just a few games that stand out to me. I will have writeups throughout the week:

Pitt/Central Florida UNDER 48

OSU/ MSU OVER 52.5

Arizona - 3 (hook)

Cinci/Louisville UNDER 53.5

Houston + 3.5 (hook)

Maryland - 3.5 (hook)

Michigan - 6.5 (hook)
 
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Pitt/Central Florida UNDER 48
Throughout the season Pitt has shown that they do have a good defense. If you throw out their game against MSU, they have not given up more than 15 points in any contest. Offensively, they have had some decent outputs but many of these were against bad defenses. Cenral Florida (Do they ever play games on Saturdays?) will play on national TV for the third consecutive week. CFU also has a decent defense. If you throw out the game against Florida, the most points this team has given up is 24! I think this total is off by about 10 points. Under is the play in this one....


OSU/ MSU OVER 52.5
I bet this game specifically looking for a middle opportunity. I figure the public will bet this game up as the week continues on. You have 2 high powered offenses(Where my Drew Stanton haters?). Michigan States defense is down right horrid. They gave up 40 to ND and 31 to Michigan- OSUs offense is better than both of these teams IMO. Ohio State(and yes they are my team) has impressed me on offense. Yes they have really really good starters, but they are SOO deep at every position. Defensively they have the number 1 scoring defense in the nation(7 per). I am not totally sold on keeping this play but I still like it right now....

Arizona - 3 (hook)
Who does Stanford play and why are they only getting 3 points? I will take my brothers high school team -3 against Stanford. This is a big time Stanford fade more than a Zona play. Zona played USC and BYU tough already this year...and I do know that Tuitama is not playing. Stanford has been about murdered in every game this year and they lost SU as 11 point favorites to San Jose State!

Cinci/Louisville UNDER 53.5
Cincinatti has a good defense guys...Looking at some of their stats you might be quick to think I am lying. They gave up 33 to Pitt(there were 2 pick 6s in that game). They gave up 37 to the best offense in the country OSU(They held them to single digits in the first half). This team has some good players that can make plays on defense. A good Akron offense was held scoreless after scoring 2 TDs early! Louisville comes into this game with a powerful offense that has been lighting up the scoreboard. With that being said they are missing their 2 most important pieces of the puzzle(Brohm is Questionable). Louisville also has a great defense and should shut Cincinatti down...I like the under here

Houston + 3.5 (hook)
It looks like Southern Piss actually does play Saturday games. With that being said, I do not see a reason why they are favored in this game. The 3 points would make one believe that Vegas sees these teams as even teams!?!? Yes, I know that Houston just got beat by Louisianna Lafayette. That game was more of a hangover loss from the Miami heartbreaker IMO. Houston has been putting up huge numbers on offense all season. I think they have to much for this SMS team to handle. Also, with a Fletcher suspended for the first half, how will Southern MIss move the ball?

Maryland - 3.5 (hook)
Well, once again this is more about the other team that Maryland. Virginia is still get love from the ass-kicking they gave Duke. How long will this last? Hopefully for awhile because this game should be a blowout. If you throw the Duke game out, the most points that this Virginia team has scored is 21! Maryland has an above average defense and should be able to shut this pee-wee offense down. Maryland wins this in a rout 31-9!

Michigan - 6.5 (hook)
When will Michigan choke that is the question that seems to be on everyone's mind. Since I originally bet this game, Manningham has been listed as OUT and the line has dropped. Why? Do people really think Manningham is that good to change the line? NO WAY!! Some of my SEMCON people are going to start bitching now but guys lets be realistic...hear me out.... Has Manningham made a tough catch yet this year? Honestly, think about it....Every TD he catches hits him right over his shoulder!! I can catch those! Yes I know he is a great reciever and runs precise routs...Just think about it. It is Henne that is making the plays NOT Super Mario! With that being said, I think Michigan gets the job done and covers this spread!

Hawaii - 4(hook)
Will have more thoughts on this later...Think Hawaii is the better team and this line will escalate
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Hawaii line has not escalated, it has actually dropped, but I still think it's the right side. I'm on it at -4 with you.
beer.gif
 
reneworleans- THnaks bro and BOL this week

SoonerBS- yeah I am surprised by that...I thought it would go back up..BOL

Huntdog- Thanks bro and BOL to you... I got your Tigers at + 850 to win it all...they going to come through for me?
 
adding:

Clemson 1st Q -10.5 **DOUBLE**
Clemson 1st half -24 OVER 30

Though I have loved the -44 all week, I think I am going to stay away from it. Temple has improved each week but still blow nuts. They often get crushed in the first half of games. Clemson should be able to run all over this team. To much is being made about the 2 WRs out for the Tigers IMO. I expect them to score early and often. I could see a 14-0 or 17-0 first quarter and so on...I originally also like the over 1st Q of 14.5 but have since shyed away because of the half point.

CSU + 6
CSU UNDER 45 **DOUBLE**

There really is not much to say for me in this spot. I have discussed this game in many differnt threads and this seems to be the play. I think this line should be closer to a FG than a TD. I like the under a lot.

Virgina Tech ML - 135
Va Tech UNDER 42.5
Va Tech has a good defense- If you throw out their last game against Ga Tech, this defense has been dominating (0,10,0,13 points allowed in their other games).
BC's defense has shown some decent signs also (0, 17, 23, 33,24). They have played some good offenses (Clemson and CMU). Also, 2 of those games were OT games.
BCs starting a walk-on kicker- yes I realize their other kicker was not that good either BUT this kid has never played a football game EVER at any lever. This will be his first on the field experience in pads ever(first true exposure to real rush of defense). And oh yeah it is on National TV.
BCs offense is not all that great- they have put up some decent numbers against some bad defenses...L2 have played better defense(yeah Maine) and have only put up 22 and 15 points.
Va tech has been able to score against good defenses(27 against Ga Tech but got shut down in the second half....29 vs Cinci) BUT it is a lot harder to score on the road at night...


I apologize for these half-ass writeups but....

BOL to all( I can answer questions about the games if anyone has them)

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YesSir

Hey, I was looking into the game tonight and noticed that CF's Defense is ranked 107th!?!?!?!? Given that and Pitt's ability to put some points on the board, do you think Pitt is a good play? Not sold on the UNDER, the more that I look into this the more I am confused.
 
Mags- They may be 107th total defense but they are only giving up about 24 ppg. I am not saying that is that great BUT if they hold Pitt to 24 this game should stay WAY UNDER. I would not say that Pitt really has an "explosive" offense. Their numbers are a little off IMO (they put up 51 against the Shitadel, 45 against Toledo and 38 against Virginia). Each of those teams have given up big numbers on a regular basis. The game against Cinci was off because of the 2 pick 6s. I know this sounds like many excuses but I think they are all suitable excuses. I am not sold on Pitt, as you are not sold on the under. I think this will be a low scoring game, and it is hard to take a DD favorite in a low scoring game IMO..>BOL when you decide
 
Well put. I agree with the several points you have made about the Pitt scores (i.e. increasing their PPG average substantially). I guess I'm looking at this more on just numbers as I have yet to see C. FL. play this year. Looking at this more, I do agree that the UNDER just may be the best play in the game.

Again, appreciate the feedback and GL!

Mags:cheers:
 
FINAL CARD (as of now) and yes I know there are 20+ games here..>Did not ask for permission...

GAMES LOCKED IN EARLY:

Hawaii - 4

Michigan -6.5 (hook)

Cinci/Lville UNDER 53.5

Arizona - 3 (hook)

Houston +3.5 (hook)

OTHERS that I have seen throughout the week:


Oregon - 9 **DOUBLE**

Michigan/Penn State UNDER 41 (Sooner tail)

Navy -2.5 **DOUBLE**

Navy/Rutgers UNDER 45

Texas Tech -6.5 (hook)

Wisconsin - 8

Army +4.5

Indiana/ Iowa OVER 52

FIU + 26

Florida State - 22.5

TAMU + 2

Auburn + 2

CAL - 8.5 **DOUBLE**

Kent State -7 ( hook) **DOUBLE**

TExas - 27

West Virginia -13.5 (first half)

WMU/NIU OVER 51


WV/The Cuse OVER 48.5 **DOUBLE**

Thanks to everyone for their efforts this week and BOL to all
Peace_5.gif

 
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21-9 so far on the weekend...
16-7 on the day
6-1 ON BIG PLAYS



Clemson 1st Q -10.5 **DOUBLE** WIN

Clemson 1st half -24 OVER 30 WIN


CSU + 6 WIN


CSU UNDER 45 **DOUBLE** WIN


Virgina Tech ML - 135 LOSS


Va Tech UNDER 42.5 WIN

Pitt/Central Florida UNDER 48 LOSS

Hawaii - 4 WIN

Michigan -6.5 (hook) WIN

Cinci/Lville UNDER 53.5 WIN

Arizona - 3 (hook) WIN

Houston +3.5 (hook) LOSS


Oregon - 9 **DOUBLE** WIN

Michigan/Penn State UNDER 41 (Sooner tail) WIN


Navy -2.5 **DOUBLE** LOSS

Navy/Rutgers UNDER 45 WIN

Texas Tech -6.5 (hook) LOSS

Wisconsin - 8 WIN

Army +4.5 LOSS

Indiana/ Iowa OVER 52 WIN

FIU + 26 LOSS


Florida State - 22.5 WIN

TAMU + 2 WIN

Auburn + 2 WIN


CAL - 8.5 **DOUBLE** WIN

Kent State -7 ( hook) **DOUBLE** WIN

TExas - 27 WIN


West Virginia -13.5 (first half) LOSS

WMU/NIU OVER 51 LOSS

WV/The Cuse OVER 48.5 **DOUBLE** WIN
 
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adding some prop bets:

Willis McGahee (BUF) Ov. 90.5 rushing Yards (EVEN)

Reggie Brown OVER 67.5 Recieving Yards (-115)

Tatum Bell OVER 108.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
 
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