Week 7 Card

[larice]

Last week was a letdown week for me, but I think I was on the right side on most games. That has been said plenty... On to Week 7. The lines are definitely getting tighter here as we keep going and I'm getting fewer games with differentials big enough to bet. I do have several dogs this week which appears to be a good thing.

All comments are welcome. I constantly bet throughout the week and add to games as I go. I'll also buy off of them so if you have a strong case I'm listening.

Week 7 Updated: 8-4 (67%)

Top Tier:

**Win** Buffalo +8.5 vs. Miami (Ohio):

**Win** Nebraska -10.5 vs. Kansas State: Bet. I'm going to keep riding Nebraska. They show up as a fairly strong play this week. I have Nebraska winning every category that I have. I'll break a capping rule and say that I would really like for K-State to lose ATS since OK State was my biggest bet last week. I'd like to hear from Sooner on all big 12 games, but I'm afraid he's going into Totals Mode.

**Loss** Texas Tech -7 vs. Colorado: Bet. Buyer beware. I think some of the big12 guys are on Colorado here. I personally wouldn't have anybody but Texas Tech here though.

**Win** Hawaii -4.5 vs. Fresno State: Bet. HG likes it. I don't really like the situation, but if I have it as a strong bet and he is on it too that is good enough for me.

**Loss** San Jose State -13.5 vs. Utah State: Bet. I'm showing 3 TDs here. If SJSU can play the role of a two TD favorite without choking, they should cover this.

**Loss** Florida Int'l +28.5 vs. Miami: Bet. This isn't my favorite kind of bet here, but I don't see why FIU can't cover this. The stats are there for them too. FIU isn't gawd-awful, Miami isn't Miami, and 4TDs is just too many. Disclaimer: Some good cappers are on Miami.

**Loss** Kentucky +26.5 vs. LSU: Bet. Kentucky can cover this if they get a couple of breaks. Not real sure how the tigers will respond, but if they miss a beat they'll miss the cover. I'll take the gamble that they won't hit on all 6 cylinders.

**Win** Rice +5.5 vs. UAB: Bet.

2nd Tier:

**Win** **Removed** Pitt -10 vs. UCF: ?? This might be too many points?

**Win** **Removed** Purdue -7 vs. Northwestern: Bet. Too much potential offense for me not to bet this. The good thing about that is that it is okay if the defense blows a little bit, which it probably will. Also, I get to fade Northwestern with this pick which is always a good idea. I don't like this one over 7.

**Win** Oklahoma State +4 vs. Kansas: Bet. Damn that game last week. Another one I'm not super confident in. If Kansas' passing game is on I'll lose this bet, but I'm betting that Oklahoma State can keep it close and get a pick or two. I show them winning by a TD.

**Win** New Mexico State +26 vs. Boise State: Bet. I kind of like this matchup. Well, I kind of like this matchup +26 points anyway. I'd much rather bet on Boise than New Mexico State, but I'm going to try them again. Boise State can cover this on offense, but they'll have to do it with NM State putting a few points up.

 

[larice]

The ones that were close to making the cut are still on as leans.
Alabama -14
Tulsa -2.5
Houston +2
Florida +2

 

[Seabass]

I like Oklahoma State a lot...I just think it's worth a try, especially getting more than 3 points. I also like the ML a little bit at 151. Most of your big bets are games I know relatively nothing about, so good luck on those.

The game I will disagree with, though, is Purdue. Purdue has shown to be trash on the road, and 7 points is an awful lot to lay. I'm seeing the number at 7.5 right now, which would be even worse. Fading Northwestern is never a horrible idea, but Purdue doesn't have much to play for, and it might be time for Northwestern to show up. Outside of one win over Minnesota, Purdue has done nothing to impress me.

 

[larice]

Seabass:

I agree on Purdue -7.5. Seven points is alot on any road trip. They did look decent @ Notre Dame at times. A few boneheaded plays hurt them, mainly piss-poor redzone production. Iowa last week was a buzzsaw...never know if a team will be depressed or pissed off in that situation and I think they were pissed off. Northwestern should score more than they are used to. I might back off...I put Purdue right up there with Clemson, Georgia Tech, etc. in terms of laying eggs.

I have OK State stronger in every category I measure, including their Pass D against Kansas' pass O. That is the wild card though. Kansas has put up some points against decent (compared to Ok st) competition.

Good luck.

 

[larice]

Has anybody looked at Vanderbilt this week? If that number gets to 14 I'll get on it. Vanderbilt, barring the Ol Miss outcome, has had a solid showing in all of their games. They have played teams that I consider to be better than Georgia:

Ark 21 - Vandy 19
Alabama 13 - Vandy 10
Michigan 27 - Vandy 7

That is fairly decent defense. UGA is inconsistent on offense and that might be all this Vanderbilt team needs. They should score a little bit on UGAs overrated defense.

I won on Temple against Vandy as a fave. They didn't cover last week as a fave. But they are back to their role now as a 2 TD dog.

 

[larice]

I want to start fooling with moneylines a little bit. I haven't bet ML's in the past, but people have been successful doing it so I want to track it here. Any input from ML bettors is appreciated.

I looked at last week's slate and the following picks would have been bets as I had them scoring within 3 points of the fave or winning outright. I don't have the energy to go look up values, but would this have been a winning ticket (approximation)?

NC State vs. Florida State (WIN)
Utah vs. TCU (WIN)
Baylor vs. Colorado (WIN)
UConn vs. SFlorida (bad LOSS)
Minny vs. Penn State (close LOSS)
Purdue vs. Iowa (bad LOSS)
Navy vs. Air Force (WIN)
Rice vs. Tulane (close LOSS)
Oregon vs. California (bad LOSS)
Central Michigan vs. Toledo (WIN)
La.-Monroe vs. Arky St. (close LOSS)
Akron vs. Cincy (LOSS)
Kentucky vs. S. Carol (LOSS)
Florida Int'l vs. N. Texas (close LOSS)
Indiana vs. Illinois (WIN)
Memphis vs. UAB (LOSS)

That is 6 winners and 10 losers for 38%.


These are games that I have the dog scoring within 3 points of the fave or winning the game outright. I'm betting a ridiculously small amount just to pay attention, but they are not Bets for all practical purposes.

Week 7 ML updated: 7-5 (58%)

Colorado State +202 vs. Air Force **Win**

Army +200 vs. UCONN **Loss**

Wake Forest +154 vs. NC State **Win**

Buffalo +295 vs. Miami (Ohio) **Loss**

Rutgers +106 vs. Navy **Win**

Oklahoma State +140 vs. Kansas **Win**

Oregon State +350 vs. Washington **Win**

Toledo +251 vs. Kent **Loss**

Stanford +162 vs. Arizona **Loss**

Idaho +112 vs. LTU **Win**

Houston +111 vs. Southern Miss **Loss**

Rice +106 vs. UAB **Win**

So, do you draw a line at +200 and say anything under that is not worth betting? Rutgers, Idaho, Houston, and Rice would be better to take the points?

 

[redbearde]

ML dogs are a value proposition. If you think Wake Forest has a 45-50% chance of the ouright win, then perhaps 154 IS value. If you think Rice has a better than 50% chance, then +106 is value. One benefit of taking real short odds on a game is that it sometimes turns the corner and you can get the other side too.

Buffalo has lost some value since open (memphis lost some defensive players), and you might want wait and see if it comes back up before hitting it....I would want a lot more than 3:1 for that bunch, especially given how well Miami Oh played last week.

Oklahoma St I have no real opinion on, but they seem to find ways of losing games....

Army and CSU look great to me because I actually bet them earlier at worse numbers.

Oregon St ML is a fairly popular play among guys I respect, but i just can't bring myself to bet that one.

This is not a style where you'll hit over 50% often...usually much less. The goal is to hit, as you picked last week, 38%, and you'll make money. If you're able to hit higher than 40%, well, then you'll start raking it in...

Obviously the fact that there are some teams that just aren't going to lose in a given week reduces the number you have to fool with, and I highly recommend you pay attention to the MAC and the Sun Belt conferences. Sometimes the books don't really know much more about the the fuck to do with those any more than we do, and you wind up with some incredible value like a sunbelt team getting 5:1.

Good Luck. At covers, read Matador's and TheGarfather's ML dog threads. They're the best threads left over there.

 

[redbearde]

oh, and if you haven't yet, hit the ads lingering around the site for pinnacle and betCris. They bring out earlier lines......though spreads always come out first.

 

[larice]

Nice rundown Redbearde.

Do you vary your bet size? Fewer units on higher odds and more units on lower odds?

To bet these with any significant bankroll takes some guts. It is easy to say NC State will stay within 10 of Florida State--not so easy to be confident in the upset.

 

[redbearde]

I was more confident in my NC St ML bet as I was most others. But I'm an NCSU grad, and I'm pretty knowledgable about that particular program and game.

I do not vary bet sizes as a general rule. I took Rice at FSU a couple weeks ago (got creamed ahahah), and THAT one I wagered less than my usual unit on.

Matador has been putting out 2 units on numbers under 200 and 1 unit on numbers 200. I'm not a fan of that concept. I put the same amount on each one and think through what my odds of winning the game actually are. If you're getting 26:1, it doesn't take much to see Illinois beat Michigan St or Utah St beat Fresno St....but honestly, those huge number wins almost never happen, and my cutoff for bothering is usaully around 1000. It depends on the game and team. Fading a team like Southern Cal should yield more value, but it's always good to reality check yourself. How likely is it that this year's illinois team beats Michigan St? That 3 or 5% may happen, but usually not, and we can easily go an entire season without seeing this happen. I don't make it a standard practice to bet on extremely long odds, but I thought Rice had a pretty good spot against a relatively weak-ass Florida St team. Heh, boy was I wrong.

Anyway, If we get 2:1 on our money (+200), and we win 35% of them, then we make money. If we get 3:1 on our money, and we win 30% of them, then we make money. So I try to find spots where I think return on investment outweighs the chance of winning, and I honestly shoot for 40% or better. I like to find about 10 teams per week and hope I get 4 of them.

Sometimes I do better, sometimes worse. Sometimes the refs fuck me over and hand Oklahoma a loss...

At the end of the year, I should be up a helluva lot. =)

 

[larice]

Okay, for tracking I'll list these. ML's are just current, not shopped. These are the best games according to my capping.

Wake Forest +154
Minnesota +306
Buffalo +295
Oklahoma State +140
Rice +196
Stanford +162 (shouldn't this be higher?)
Toledo +251
Texas A&M +112
Army +200
Tulane +440

$10 each, so $100 invested. If Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Rice, and Army hit, then I win Minnesota ($10 + $30=$40), Oklahoma State ($10 + $14=$24), Rice ($10 + $19=$29) and Army ($10 +20=$30) to total $123 dollars. Damn, that seems tough. I'm wondering if it really pays to play on less than +200?

Florida would have made the list if the # was better.

 

[redbearde]

$100 invested for $123 return is a 23% Return on Investment for 40% accuracy. I think that's good. I have found no correlation between a number being less than +200 and it hitting more often. If you want to get rid of those under 200, I think you'll miss a lot of value. Florida opened at about 123. I got it late at 115, and I only did because I think I'll get a middle out of it.

Yes, I think Stanford should be about a 350 number, actually. It's just my opinion, but I think AZ outclasses Tree and this'll be another crushing blow for Stanford.

i do think you'll win a few of those, and that's all you can ask for. What you're doing is essentially how I got started on this...just put a few bucks on a group of games and see how it goes for a month or two.

I hope you win a shitload...I really think there's a lot of value involved in these. Good luck.

 

[redbearde]

looks like you have em, but if not....get accounts at pinny and betcris.