Week 7 Blitz

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
Wk 1: 6-3 ( 66.6% ) +3.7 units
Wk 2: 3-4 ( 42.9% ) -1.6 units
Wk 3: 5-3 ( 62.5% ) +7.6 units
Wk 4: 5-3 ( 62.5% ) +5.5 units
Wk 5: 4-4 ( 50.0% ) -1.7 units
Wk 6: 5-3 ( 62.5% ) +4.4 units
------------------------------------------

28-20 ( 58.4% ) +17.9 units




Closed out being a homer and losing the Giants spread on Monday... I still think they played pretty good offensively (barring the costly mistakes). Defense played horrible (and the Browns O-line was up for it)... but playing as bad as they did and still being in the game late is a good sign for them. They were a team I was ready to load up on this week against the Niners, but double digit lines bother me some... depending on the teams playing.

anyway.. I won't go into much thoughts right now on the games I'm leaning, but I will eventually.....

as for now, here they are...



LEANS:

I am posting them based on strength of current confidence.. but like everything else, things may change as I dig deeper.



6 unit leans:

none



4-5 unit leans:

Minnesota +3 @ Chicago

NY Jets @ Oakland +3



3-4 unit leans:

Cleveland @ Washington -7

Seattle @ Tampa Bay -10.5



1-2 unit leans:

San Francisco @ NY Giants -10.5

New Orleans @ Carolina -3



these are all just early leans and will more than likely change around throughout... after the digging goes deeper... I don't go with many 4 or 5 unit plays (one each so far this year)... and the 6 unit is almost there for decoration... I'll throw that much on a game maybe once every 3 years... pretty much everything, even the stars, have to align.

anyway... be back with some thoughts a bit later.. just wanted to get this posted out early to maybe get some thoughts on some of these.
 
As always, I enjoy reading your insight into the games bud.

Having said that...no way can I back Oakland right now. Not after that dreadful performance last week. I don't think the team responded well to Kiffin being fired, even though they expected it at some point.

Undecided on Minnesota, who crapped the bed against a horrible Detroit team. IMO, it really all comes down to the Bears mindset after that seemingly improbable, last second loss to Atlanta last Sunday.

Really liking both of your 3-4 unit plays. TB should demolish my Hawks. If the Bucs can't stop Charlie Frye, they might as well pack it in for the remainder of the season. Seattle's defense is putrid as well, so...Garcia and Co should move the ball with little problem.

Washington just played an awful game last week, and still almost pulled out the victory in the end. I think there's great value in the Skins only laying 7 against a bad Browns defense.

GL this week bro. Looking forward to your final card.

:shake:
 
BlitzBandit said:
Minnesota +3 @ Chicago
Click to expand...

Like this one a lot..

How can you not like Rams at home catching 7? Forget the records.. and look purely at the matchup. Lots of missing parts for Cowboys and a defense that was already suspect, on the road vs offense that I think will move up and down the field .. Curious what you think ?

Personally, most definately be involved on the ATS and may pound the ML.. (Checking status of Pace and a few others .)

gl this week bro.. Great work as always:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
How can you not like Rams at home catching 7? Forget the records.. and look purely at the matchup. Lots of missing parts for Cowboys and a defense that was already suspect, on the road vs offense that I think will move up and down the field .. Curious what you think ?
Click to expand...

What match up? Yes Dallas is missing Romo and Jones (Felix? and Pacman). The defense is below average IMO, but why will StL's offense be the one to expose them? Holt still getting double coverage every snap because Bulger has no other targets meaning it's all on Jackson. Meanwhile Barber should run wild behind that big OL. With Barber, Dallas can keep their defense off the field. I am in no way advocating laying a td with the road team, but I don't see why this is such a clear-cut decision for you.

I do like Minny though
 
Blue_Chip said:
What match up? Yes Dallas is missing Romo and Jones (Felix? and Pacman). The defense is below average IMO, but why will StL's offense be the one to expose them? Holt still getting double coverage every snap because Bulger has no other targets meaning it's all on Jackson. Meanwhile Barber should run wild behind that big OL. With Barber, Dallas can keep their defense off the field. I am in no way advocating laying a td with the road team, but I don't see why this is such a clear-cut decision for you.

I do like Minny though
Click to expand...

Hope they double cover Holt. Avery is Holt 7 years ago, but faster. Was hurt earlier, now healthy.

Steph Jackson vs soft Dallas defense?

T.O. already in meltdown mode with a 40 yr old QB now with no vertical skills and absolutely no mobility.. Haslett will have a very good gameplan..

Matchups in short.. Watch the Rams offense lw with a pissed off Bulger and healthy skill guys and then watch the pathetic Cowboy defense the L3 and tell me how the o-line with a predictable gameplan is going to cover 7 on the road..

Just my opinion..:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Like this one a lot..

How can you not like Rams at home catching 7? Forget the records.. and look purely at the matchup. Lots of missing parts for Cowboys and a defense that was already suspect, on the road vs offense that I think will move up and down the field .. Curious what you think ?

Personally, most definately be involved on the ATS and may pound the ML.. (Checking status of Pace and a few others .)

gl this week bro.. Great work as always:cheers:
Click to expand...


definitely leaning to Rams as well... just not sure what it's worth to me yet...

it's funny how just a few weeks ago (after the blowout in Philly) there was alot of threads going around about how the Rams are much better historically at home... now, just a few weeks later, all that history is forgotten... I think right now they got alot of good things going with Hasslett and then Bulger back in the lineup.. it's like they peaked at their lowest point two weeks ago and they got nowhere to go but up now... they've always had the talent... they just were shit in execution.

also leaning to Bills and Pack as well right now.... I hate going against the Colts though... specially with such a low spread.
 
currently leaning to Bills, Pack and Rams... and still digging... hehe...

didn't have much time to get my ass in here today much... kinda why I don't normally post this early, cause I'm still looking things over...

anyway, heading to bed now...

but I'll get my ass in here tomorrow to get some of the plays squared away.
 
BlitzBandit said:
definitely leaning to Rams as well... just not sure what it's worth to me yet...

it's funny how just a few weeks ago (after the blowout in Philly) there was alot of threads going around about how the Rams are much better historically at home... now, just a few weeks later, all that history is forgotten... I think right now they got alot of good things going with Hasslett and then Bulger back in the lineup.. it's like they peaked at their lowest point two weeks ago and they got nowhere to go but up now... they've always had the talent... they just were shit in execution.

.
Click to expand...

Exactly... I figured we would be thinking the same thing on this one.:smiley_acbe:
I'll write it up later but definately a very strong home dog..
 
Rams/Cowboys:

Reports surfacing that Romo may now play... Can't see it and not sure a guy with broken finger on throwing hand changes my opinion.. May support it more.

Orlando Pace was dressed for practice today but did participate in team drills.. Did individual drills on the side.. Good sign, think he plays.

Don't mean to hi-jack the thread.. Haven't had a chance to jump start mine yet as most of my energy is in CFB trying to finalize that card..
 
Be careful with my Rams. There are a lot of unknowns in this game. The play of Mark Bulger. He has not played well in a very long time. Same goes with the Oline. Does the Rams offensive line matchup well vs the Cowboys Dline? I say no.
The Rams offense really struggles to put up points. Their offense scored ZERO TD's last week. They only have 3 TD's in 5 games. They didn't reach the red zone until game 4. I'm not even sure they reached the red zone last week outside of the defense getting them there. This is not a good offense.
WR's like T.O. and Witten will give the Rams fits. Getting only 7 points this week is far different than getting 13.5 points last week. Rams are no longer a great home team. Will Hasslet's defense produce the turnovers like last week? They aren't very good at it.
Despite Dallas' problems, they're still a much more talented team than the Rams.
You'll be happier having your money on a better team...Trust me.
 
Last edited:
I was leaning Dallas with Brad Johnson. Romo's absence really dont matter here IMO. I think Wiseplayer has had a great handle on the Rams since day 1 . Acquiring Williams should energize them short term . Week after week the Rams offense still doesnt do much at all ....
 
Blitz - the more I look at the Minnesota @ Chicago game, the more I'm actually liking The Vikings. The Bears defense is absolutely riddled with injuries. Tough to see them stopping the run, or the pass for that matter...even with the game being at Soldier Field.
 
Orlando Pace is questionable for Sunday. You can call this a Cowboy slaughter if he's not playing. The Rams Oline is terrible with him, you can imagine what they're like without him. I'm finding hard to believe this line is only 7. People are overreacting to the Rams winning in DC. If it wasn't for some bad turnovers on the Redskins part, the Rams might not have scored. Also, the Redskins were coming off 2 very tough road game wins at Philly and at Dallas. A little hard to get charged up for the Rams after those big wins. I know it's the pro's but I think the Rams coming off a coaching change and a bye week, were probably better motivated and prepared. The Rams are still one of the 2 worst teams in the league. I rank mark Bulger as a bottom 5 QB. He is the most overrated QB in the league. People are still living in the past with this guy. He's physically beat up and has absolutely no confidence.
 
Do not like to see us battling on so much

BOL Blitz! Great season so far! You think the G-Men will take that division now? I think Philly will slowly inch back up there BUT NYG will take it down!


:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Don't mean to hi-jack the thread...
Click to expand...


you can have it... I haven't have time for shit in here.. haha...

.. it's all good though.... not sure if Romo is playing, but I'm still leaning to the Rams... like I said though.. not sure how much it's quite worth to me... it would be so easy to jump on them mainly because of what they did last week... I don't want to fall into that.
 
Minnesota @ Chicago

Lean: Minny

You have two defenses that are dominated at stopping the run. Minny is allowing 73 rushing yards per game (4th in the league) and Chicago is allowing 74 rushing yards per game (5th in the league). I wouldn't expect Forte to be able to lead the way here, but it's possible they still keep pounding the ball with him even if he's only averaging 2 or 3 yards per carry. Against Tampa, he had almost 30 carries and averaged just a bit over 3 yards.

One thing that I do see as being misinterpreted is Minnys' pass defense. On paper, they are ranked 17th against the pass, but I have them ranked in the top ten in that dept. Half of their games have been against top 10 passing offenses. Aaron Rodgers was kept Under 200 yards passing and under 10 yards per pass. In fact, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been the only two quarterbacks that have surpassed over 200 yards through the air against the Vikes... the funny thing is, they both only threw 1 td and both had 2 interceptions. What that means to me is if you are forced to pass alot, you will make mistakes against this team.... and Kyle Orton is NOT Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. It could get ugly.

I'm sure both defenses are going to try to force the opposing quarterbacks to beat them, but I think Peterson is more capable of getting through the stacked box up front and breaking away than Forte is at this point. The scary part is that Minny has been vulnerable this year to allow those long runs on the ground. Kevin Smith had a 50 yarder against them last week and Ryan Grant had a 57 yarder against em' in week one... about the only big thing that has come from Grant all year. The Vikings have also allowed 6 rushing tds. That's only one less than they allowed all last year. Still, after almost losing to one of the worst teams in the league where they were favored by double digits, I think they get the job done against a Chicago team that had its bubble bursted in the closing seconds against Atlanta in their last game. After that, I think it be hard to be ahead in this game and not wonder if you're going to choke it in the end.... and if they're behind, I don't see them as a comeback type team... specially against Minnys' defense.
 
6figure said:
Would love to here your thoughts on Houston and Det?...Respect your opinion..
Click to expand...


don't really care for this game... a horrible Detroit offense against a horrible Houston defense... I figure Houston should be the play for the cover, but I'd probably bet Detroit if I had to bet... I'd rather stay away though. gl bud
 
SportsNut said:
I was leaning Dallas with Brad Johnson. Romo's absence really dont matter here IMO. I think Wiseplayer has had a great handle on the Rams since day 1 . Acquiring Williams should energize them short term . Week after week the Rams offense still doesnt do much at all ....
Click to expand...


I think I've had a pretty good handle on em' myself (4-0). Faded em' for a 3-0 start (including my only 5 unit play of the year), then took em' last week against the Skins...

but with all that aside, I could still be completely wrong on this one... and even though I'm still leaning Rams, I'm not sure if I'm playing it... there' s no doubt the Rams have been trash all year and I agree with wise with everything he said, but there is still talent on that team that has yet to prove it's there...

From a matchup standpoint, it could be a Dallas blowout... or at least a convincing win (regardless who's quarterback)... I just don't think I want to risk taking Dallas and then be pissed off out of my ass for taking em'... kinda rather have a "shit, I knew I shouldn't have taken the crap team Rams.. my bad" than to have a "what fucking bullshit of a game that was" type thing.
 
wiseplayer said:
Orlando Pace is questionable for Sunday. You can call this a Cowboy slaughter if he's not playing. The Rams Oline is terrible with him, you can imagine what they're like without him. I'm finding hard to believe this line is only 7. People are overreacting to the Rams winning in DC. If it wasn't for some bad turnovers on the Redskins part, the Rams might not have scored. Also, the Redskins were coming off 2 very tough road game wins at Philly and at Dallas. A little hard to get charged up for the Rams after those big wins. I know it's the pro's but I think the Rams coming off a coaching change and a bye week, were probably better motivated and prepared. The Rams are still one of the 2 worst teams in the league. I rank mark Bulger as a bottom 5 QB. He is the most overrated QB in the league. People are still living in the past with this guy. He's physically beat up and has absolutely no confidence.
Click to expand...


great stuff...

I agree with alot of it, but at the same time, I don't think BJ or RW are answers to the problems the Cowboys have already been having... Their defense is above average against the run ( I have them 11th) and below average against the pass. Offensively, people want to throw in BJ as the guy with Super Bowl experience who can come in and carry this team while Romo is out... I've even heard alot of people saying the Cowboys may be better off for now and may start doing better with him because he will play the short game instead of going deep alot like Romo does... seriously though... BJ could be a problem for Dallas if he starts getting pressured. And if Romo plays, I wouldn't expect him to come out a hero...
I figure the public will be on the Cowboys as well on this play... makes sense with the line as low as it is.
 
YesSir said:
You think the G-Men will take that division now? I think Philly will slowly inch back up there BUT NYG will take it down!
Click to expand...


I've always thought they would take it... I just can't say that without being expected to be called a 'HOMER'.. hehe... I get that alot just when I back them for one game... can't imagine how much I'd be called that if I predicted them to take the Division.. ;)

that's also why I put all three teams (Philly, Dallas, and NYG) with the same 10-13 win span... even though I had said Philly would take it. We'll see how things go though... still a long season ahead... gl this week.
 
Aztec4Life said:
Blitz - the more I look at the Minnesota @ Chicago game, the more I'm actually liking The Vikings. The Bears defense is absolutely riddled with injuries. Tough to see them stopping the run, or the pass for that matter...even with the game being at Soldier Field.
Click to expand...

I still like Minny alot... looking at the total as well... kinda liking the OVER... mainly because of turnover and mistakes that could happen in all the right places... plus I think Chicago has been held under 20 pts only once all year.
 
Aztec4Life said:
Blitz - the more I look at the Minnesota @ Chicago game, the more I'm actually liking The Vikings. The Bears defense is absolutely riddled with injuries. Tough to see them stopping the run, or the pass for that matter...even with the game being at Soldier Field.
Click to expand...

The Bears are gonna be in a base 4-4-3 on Sunday to take away Peterson like they did last year at Metrodome.

Bears went on record as saying they weren't ready for him the first time they played him as he hadn't really arrived till that game.

The 4-4-3 will also help them deal with all their injuries in the secondary.

Whoever, gives whoever the short fields on Sunday and wins Special Teams wins. I would say the Bears but with how Special Teams went in the last 10 seconds of last week, Hester having done nothing to date this season and us playing some of the worst 2nd halves of football i don't trust us laying any points.
 
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills -1 ( 2.2 to win 2 )

San Diego's defense hasn't been coming through at all. Their pass rush has almost disappeared completely and the corners can't be expected to hold the fort for too long in the backfield. The Chargers are the worst in the league in passing yards allowed (267 passing yards per game), and only the Cards and Jags have allowed more touchdowns through the air (10). Also, Matt Cassel has been the only quarterback who has not been able to pass for over 225 yards against the Charger defense. I don't see Buffalo having problems moving the ball.

On the flip, LT has been struggling so they have pretty much been getting by with Phillip Rivers passing all over the place... but I also believe Buffalos' defense against the pass is good enough to cause problems for Rivers. They have not allowed any QB to pass for over 250 yards and have not allowed any 100 yard receivers. If LT is left to carry the load, things won't be good for the Chargers in this one.

Bottom line for me... the Bills play better at home and the Chargers have struggled on the road. San Diego had a 17-10 loss at Miami two weeks ago and played poorly for most of the week 4 game at Oakland when they entered the 4th quarter down 3-15. I see them having problems on the road again.
 
Hey.....I think this one will qualify as a "Great Shark Underwater Blitz" play.

:cheers::cheers::cheers::cheers:
 
played so far:


Minnesota +3.5 @ Chicago ( 4.6 to win 4 )

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills -1 ( 2.2 to win 2 )

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers -3 ( 2.2 to win 2 )

San Francisco 49ERS @ New York Giants -10 ( 2.2 to win 2 )



also added two totals:


Minnesota @ Chicago OVER 37.5 ( 1.1 to win 1 )

Baltimore @ Miami UNDER 36.5 (1.1 to win 1 )
 
Carolina Panthers -3

I know Delhomme played like shit against Tampa, but New Orleans has nowhere near the defense Tampa does. They are ranked 23rd against the pass and whats worse is that on the road they have given up 321 passing yards at Washington and 264 passing yards at Denver. Prior to the Tampa game, Delhomme averaged 265 passing yards in his previous two games... with 4 TDs. He missed both games against New Orleans a last year but put up 2 TDs in each of the three previous meetings (all Carolina wins). So I'll expect him to be on target in this one. The Panthers have also won 4 of the last 5 in this series.
 
Wow, you are large on the Vikes.. Glad to see you see the same thing I do. Leaned the Panthers but just can't get them on the play list. Something about Brees 332ypg I guess.. Think you are on the right side tho.. gl today
 
Minnesota @ Chicago OVER 37.5

I mentioned already that Chicago has not been held under 20 pts but one time this season... I also think there should be some mistakes that could lead to easy scores. When two tough defenses go to war, it's sometimes too tempting to take the UNDER... a number like this would entice the Under... which is why I'll take the OVER.



Baltimore @ Miami UNDER 36.5


Baltimore runs well but can't pass for shit... Miami can stop the run much better than it can the pass. On the flip, Miami has been doing well with the Wildcat stuff so far, but Baltimore has one of the roughest defenses in the league. I don't see much passing going on in this game. Both teams will try to pound it for the most part and run the clock. The little we do see from the passing game will probably be limited to short plays/gains... to avoid turnovers and mistakes. I think both teams will struggle to get over 13 pts in this one.
 
tee*dub said:
Wow, you are large on the Vikes.. Glad to see you see the same thing I do. Leaned the Panthers but just can't get them on the play list. Something about Brees 332ypg I guess.. Think you are on the right side tho.. gl today
Click to expand...


was close to bringing the Vikes down to 3 units, but didn't want to overthink everything I had already put into that game... I feel pretty confident in them covering, so I'm running with it...

as for your lean on the Panthers... that's how I feel about the Rams right now... I still like em' and am tempted to get em' in there, just something doesn't feel right and won't let me pull the trigger on em'.. hehe... I think I'll probably regret as I think it is the right side though.
 
Indianapolis @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday NFL

Hello Bettors:

'an_horse' Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay 'an_horse'

> GREEN BAY PACKERS +1 1/2 (POD) money;

Bol guys! :smiley_acbe:
 
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