Week 7 BIG thread

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Illinois is 5-1 folks. That's how bad the BIG 95 is this year.

Onto week 7....

Nebraska @ Purdue. Nebraska has won 2 in a row, good job huskers. You can get a ticket for 65.00. I wouldn't pay 20 to watch this one. Actually, I wouldn't even watch it for free on TV but maybe one of you degens have an angle on this one.

Wisconsin @ Michigan State. Tickets going for 43 bones. Make the trip to watch a fantastic game between 2 shitty teams. It's the pure shit toilet game here. MSU has zero defense. Wisconsin, like Nebraska, gives a fuck now after their coach got canned? Kids are interesting.

Penn State @ Michigan. Tickets going for 190. I might go to this one, not sure yet. If it is cold or rainy, no thanks. We will know a lot about these two after Saturday. PSU off a bye, gets to shore up that putrid pass d. Michigan coming off some tough roadies because they like to make things interesting for a while. Hope Coach Hart is alright.

Minnesota @ Illinois. Tix for 39 bucks. Come on Illini fans fill that bitch up, increase the price value of your winning 5-1 football squad. Honestly, I would love to see Bret run all the way to the Hoosier dome from here. Great story.

Maryland @ Indiana. 16 bucks to go see this one. Might be a lot of points, not a bad one to watch.


GL
 
Have to have some interest in IU (+10) as a live home dog and, as survive&advance noted, Wisc (-4) as a pure fade of Sparty, no?

PSU at +7 interesting too...noting the first true test for UM and PSU off a bye.
 
Minny/Illini is the sneaky best game on there on paper

PSU/Mich should see its share of junked up football

Agree Indy/MD could be full of chunk plays
 
what's your take on the PSU/UM game, @HUNT ?

line seems spot on, but what's your gut on this one?

i'm not touching wisky/msu, but kinda like minny on the road. am i off base with that?
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
what's your take on the PSU/UM game, @HUNT ?

line seems spot on, but what's your gut on this one?

i'm not touching wisky/msu, but kinda like minny on the road. am i off base with that?
Click to expand...

Hey buddy, I think Michigan wins by DD. It might be close for awhile but I think Michigan pulls away. Penn State just has too many deficiencies on defense, especially the pass and a qb who turns the ball over at the worst times. I can't blame you for liking minny, should be low scoring. Gl bro.
 
twinkie13 said:
I mentioned this somewhere and maybe he turns it around and I’m sure Sparty has donors but to have 95 million tied to Midnight Mel…
Click to expand...
The money is from ONE donor.

UWM guy, took over running company from his dad... 90 million isn't shit for him tho...

Screenshot_20221010-190624.png
 
PaintCrew said:
Really not sure how Illinois scores in that game with their injuries and this Minny defense
Click to expand...
Tend to agree, but if you look at Minny's rush defense, it's just mediocre, which is kind of alarming when you look at the offenses they've played. Chase Brown could get a lather up. Sitkowsi is terrible but they've beaten @PSU, Nebraska and Iowa with him. I agree that the line is where it should be though.
 
HUNT said:
Hey buddy, I think Michigan wins by DD. It might be close for awhile but I think Michigan pulls away. Penn State just has too many deficiencies on defense, especially the pass and a qb who turns the ball over at the worst times. I can't blame you for liking minny, should be low scoring. Gl bro.
Click to expand...
thanks, bud :shake:

i lost that minny line, but maybe it'll come back down later.
 
Week #6 Recap


Shocking to most, but I didn't watch any of Nebraska and Rutgers this past Friday. I almost blindly bet the Huskers ML at the end of the 3rd quarter but decided that was an amateur move. Sure enough. Anyways, looks like a pretty even game with 18 penalties and 5 combined interceptions. Good times had by all...

Last Saturday wasn't exactly a stellar day betting, but both bigger plays hit with Ohio State team totals. This was a mismatch, and other than the pick 6, Sparty didn't mount much of a fight. The yards were 614-202 and the final score reflected as much. Michigan State had 20 carries for 7 yards. That isn't good. I was curious about their transfer backs after the good showings ooc, and the answers have been given (not in a good way). Maybe this is just me, but why not more Elijah Collins? Stroud was highly efficient, and the Bucks put up the usual video game numbers versus soft competition...

The cappers on CTG had Purdue pegged pretty well last week. Neither team could run the ball, this was a QB's game. Purdue's AOC was the best QB on this particular day. Stats were close enough; the oddity was the turnover margin was 3-1 in favor of the Terps. The 3rd quarter was pretty brutal with turnovers, SOD's and a missed FG. The game ultimately came down to the blocked PAT. Is this Maryland team starting their annual swoon?

Northwestern is terrible, once again. They breathed some life for a few weeks but have regressed once again. Nice confidence game for Mertz and the Badgers plus their new coach... another winnable one coming up (more on that in a bit)...

Oh, good lord, Iowa and Illinois summoned their inner Colts-Broncos last Saturday night. the Illini run defense was superb and they had no issues with the usual Petras .500 passing performance. Chase Brown grinded out a big night and Illinois continues to surprise... That start to the 2h will be as memorable as it gets... lets recap, shall we?

Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Interception
Punt
Field Goal
Interception


Last, but not least, lets talk about the game down in Bloomington...

First of all, sounds like Coach Hart is doing well and will be back with the team sooner rather than later. In his place will be legendary Fred Jackson. Hunt used to belly-up next to this guy at A2 bars 15 years ago or so...

So, historically, Michigan has struggled with up-tempo and spread football. No matter the regime, this is an issue. We saw this a bit last year on a few road games and for the first time this year we saw how this 2022 version would react to it... not great... Now, they gave up only 10 points in the first half, but it felt like so much more. Adjustments were made at halftime, and they were much better in the second half. Michigan has some tough tests upcoming. Minter needs to be better prepared to start the games in my opinion.

No excuses, but the seizure incident (pnph) definitely had an impact on the team for a lot of the first half. Position coaches are like father figures to these kids. You could see this on their faces. The halftime break brought them back to focus luckily.

Indiana stacked the box. The first run of the game went 50 yards, and nothing else went good in that aspect until the 4th quarter. Last week, we saw UM take what Iowa gave them. This week, they were out of sync a lot of the 1st half and finally started attacking that weak pass defense in the 2nd half. I for one am glad JJ threw that first interception. This was a tipped ball in traffic, maybe not the best idea to force that in. All in all, JJ played very well and made some big-time throws.

The concern is still the linebackers. Bottom line, they need to be better. No timeline yet on NHG playing this year. That has hurt. Meanwhile, Colson has not ascended like we all expected this season. He has had great moments, but also some absolutely confusing ones as well.

The box score was a mismatch. Another solid road win and faced some adversity.

Now, one more note here...

THESE REFS WERE AWFUL -- BOTH WAYS (although Michigan got the brunt of it against them early).

These guys have no clue and need to be relegated to Northwestern and Rutgers games. Just an awful, awful display.
 
A few quick stats...

Every Michigan game has went UNDER (can call the Uconn game a push depending on the line).

Penn State is 101 of 132 teams in the country on 3rd down conversion rate (.338).

Four straight Ohio State games have went OVER the total.

Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan are TOP 5 in America in fewest yards allowed on average (schedules obv not the greatest)

The above 3 teams, plus Penn State are all in TOP 7 of fewest rushing yards allowed (Marshall, Clemson and James Madison)
 
Alright, we have a big week coming up across the nation. The Big Ten will do their part with a top-10 matchup in the Big House along with a few other very interesting games...

The Nebraska team has gotten a few wins under their belt versus the bottom of the Big Ten East division. They at least have to be feeling better about themselves. Now, they head to West Lafayette for a matchup with the resurgent Boilermakers. This game interests myself for one reason -- situational handicapping. This is near and dear to my heart and this game has been in my head for a few days. I want to look at this Purdue schedule again...

Lets fast forward to week 3 and go from there...

Wild 4th quarter loss @ Syracuse 29-32
Tight game start to finish versus FAU with a back-up QB 28-26
Huge road win up in Minneapolis in a good ole tough conference game 20-10
Back to back, with another impressive road win at College Park 31-29

We remember the season opening loss to the Nittany Lion as well...

Take away the week 2 blowout of Indiana State and every game this year has went to the wire basically. This Boiler squad is pretty hardened at this point.

Now, my thinking here is.... Purdue might be due for a letdown game of sorts. Don't forget, Wisconsin at Camp Randall is on deck. I think we can discuss this more as input from @cubsker and @PaintCrew comes about...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I'll say it right now, this game is a MUST win for Maryland. We've seen this song and dance before. Nice fun start, expectations rise, and then a slow descent. Indiana is not good, and their passing defense is less than desirable. The terps need to be aggressive early and often and take this game by the throat. All that being said, Maryland simply isn't a team I care to be involved with betting-wise.


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Big, bad Minnesota comes into Champaign trying to knock off the surprising Illini. As I posted earlier, looks like Ibrahim is back for the Gophers. Likely a QB change for Illinois as well. This is a classic Big Ten matchup that will provide plenty of power running, good defense and points should be at a premium. Simply put, Bert wins games. I'll toss this on the 2nd TV in the noon slot. Big, big game in the chase to get to Indy.


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The Sparty faithful have circled this game the last few weeks as one where they can get a win. I say this as I am privileged to talk to many, many MSU people each and every day (sigh). Obviously, the moral is as low as it can be. The pain of John L Smith and Bobby Williams tenures is being mentioned a lot right now by Michigan State fans... Simply put, this team is awful. I wish I knew that they had some magic plan this week to get going on offense or make adjustments to the pass defense... but there is simply no talk of that. Mel talked after the Washington game about certain things, but we have not seen those come to fruition. Tucker needs to make a move (fire someone) soon just to save some face. The Spartans have a few games winnable in November, but after this week their next two are road games against UM and Illinois. Simply put, no bowl game without a win this Saturday.

On the other side, we have watched Wisky struggle this year until last week. New coach, bad opponent, great results. Mertz has to be salivating at playing against this secondary. With a good gameplan, they should be able to score a bit.

I am not enamored with laying 7-8 points right now. You always fear a "gut check" game. I would consider a Wisconsin team total. Live bet game for myself, if at all....



Okay, back with the last match in just a bit...
 
Middle of October, weather must be in the back of our minds...

We'll evaluate more on Thursday as we get closer to the games...
 
Alright, we have a nice undefeated battle coming up at high noon on Saturday in Ann Arbor.

This will tell us a lot about BOTH teams.

What has Michigan done so far?

Solid road wins at Iowa and Indiana. Neither team is impressive, but a road win in conference with a young QB is always impressive
Beat up on 3 bad opponents in September

What has Penn State done so far?

Notable win at Auburn (although that looks less impressive every week).
Week one win at Purdue
Struggled a bit with NW and CMU


Notes


Penn State is off a bye week

Michigan has their bye week NEXT

Michigan won last year in Happy Valley in dramatic fashion.

Sean has hurt the Wolverines with his feet in the past.

IMO, this is the best Penn State rushing attack in a few years.

Michigan defensive line beat up Cliff last year. Can they get to him this year?


On paper, this should be the only game between here and Columbus that is a real threat for Michigan (MSU will be a war, and Illinois at home will be tough as well). Simply put, this is a big game. As of today, here are the keys to this game in my opinion...

-Michigan must establish run, but not be stubborn. This is not a good pass defense. You are at home, let JJ continue to blossom.

-Michigan has some trick plays/new looks up their sleeve for games like this. They must use them PROPERLY.

-Michigan cannot let Clifford have time in the pocket. Despite the excellent UM corners, he is good enough to pick us apart underneath.

-Penn State must stick with the run, even if stymied early. The UM run defense hasn't been as good as expected.

-Penn State needs to stick to their gameplan, even with a DD deficit. Otherwise, Michigan will get very aggressive and tee off on Sean.


I do believe that at home, Michigan should win this game. That being said, this is a game I have had as almost a toss-up for a while now. The PSU struggles in their NW and CMU games are interesting. The Auburn win keeps losing value. They are coached by Mr. Peanut. Who knows though? The UM linebackers scare me, a lot.

This will be fun...

My early week prediction is 27-24.

If Michigan isn't playing scared on offense (play-calling), then this can be more like a 31-17 kind of game.

We'll see.

Michigan play-calling and run defense both ways will be very key.
 
Last thing...

Penn State statistically, very good run defense. The Ohio Bobcats are the highest ypc in the country, that they have faced, at #97.

All other opponents are between 101st and 121st (of 133 teams).

Food for thought...
 
B.A.R. said:
A few quick stats...

Every Michigan game has went UNDER (can call the Uconn game a push depending on the line).

Penn State is 101 of 132 teams in the country on 3rd down conversion rate (.338).

Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan are TOP 5 in America in fewest yards allowed on average (schedules obv not the greatest)

The above 3 teams, plus Penn State are all in TOP 7 of fewest rushing yards allowed (Marshall, Clemson and James Madison)
Click to expand...

keep it going. i ended up on the under. 24-17 wolverines. :)
 
Roman Wilson should be back.

RT Jones out most likely.

Rumor that Cade might be dressed.

Think Hart is not coaching, but he's out recruiting tonight in the area, so gotta feel good about his health.
 
Can't find my thread right now...

OOC but..

Tenn TT o 28.5 -105

If this is a Bama ball control game early (and I can see them using a lot of clock) then I'll likely go on the 2h too when the tempo gets going a bit more.
 
Big Ten leans and tracking...

Michigan 2h tt

Under in Champagne...

Will be tracking game in EL...feel out 1st quarter...

Nebraska + points...

OOC...

Tenn game as noted above...

Totals in Utah/USC (all around)
 
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