Week 6 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
6-8-1 last week, not a great week, several bad calls. Total for the year is 34-30-3(I think, might be off on the pushes). Something you guys might have noticed is that I am now 0-3 fading Illinois. I should have written up Indiana, but Bielema has been so good as a road dog I didn't want to go against him there. Having said that, it was about as a good a motivational edge for a team I've seen all year(Indiana). Whatever. I'm going to avoid taking a position on Illinois games going forward unless there is overwhelming information I come to find out about. Frankly, I can't decipher if going against them has a significant amount of an "emotional hedge" quality to it, so I'm going to pass on making them official writeups. However, I do feel like I can give a pretty decent accounting of where things stand since I follow them so closely, so I'll give a few sentences on their games each week, and then the reader can take it or leave it.

This week they're at Purdue and the line looks like it's settled at 9.5 for Illinois. As an Illinois fan and alum, I just hope they win. Bielema has been good for Illinois standards in the Big Ten, but he's only 1-3 against Purdue, and the win was an overtime nail biter against the worst Purdue team in probably 50 years. In that game, they were absolutely cooked by Purdue QB Ryan Browne, and although the offense is new, he'll have confidence that he can cook them again, and the Purdue offense has been pretty good so far this year. Illinois is coming off a nice bounce back win over USC that probably shouldn't have been as close as it was because they gifted the Trojans 2 fumbles at the goal line. The most remarkable thing about that win was how well the offensive line played. USC, who came in as the #2 pressure defense in the country, got zero pressure on Altmyer and the Illini blew them off the ball all day. THAT was unexpected to say the least. Later on we heard that a lot of USC defensive players were under the weather, and that sounds like a lame excuse, but that would in fact make sense in my opinion. I'm not sold that an OL that looked so bad at times previously has turned the corner, but they are going up against a defense that has been helpless against the two decent offenses they've played, albeit pretty elite offenses in ND and USC. Also, Illinois defense, which has been torched, is coming off USC and Indiana, the #1 and #8 offenses in the country in yards per play, so even though Purdue is good offensively, they'll get some class relief. Illinois is in a little better shape injury wise, but they are still likely to be without their 2 top DBs in Xavier Scott and Matthew Bailey. We'll see about that. It's probably going to be a high scoring game, but if the Illini have even a couple open possessions, they might find this number hard to cover since Purdue should be able to score. Hope that helps.

Purdue's pass defense is just horrific. The one thing that sometimes bothers me about Bielema is how he plays "not to lose". He's not the only one though. Many times when coaches get ahead, in an effort to "close out the game" the switch to ultra conservative, thereby abandoning the concepts that gave them the lead in the first place, that the other team clearly can't stop. Illinois ran the ball incessantly in the second half. That was the one thing that Purdue could stop, as the Illinois OL reverted to being unable to run block again. Altmyer ended the game with only 22 pass attempts. He averaged 17.7 yards per attempt!!! Illinois could have put 60 points in this game if they kept throwing. The problem was that they might have given up 42 as well. Purdue can play some offense, but Illinois's tackling was atrocious in this game. They'll need to persevere because the injuries are going to hurt them, but the offense can score if Altmyer gets time, and the OL did well on that end in this one.

New Mexico +3 LOSS
Boston College +6.5 LOSSSSSSSSSS
Air Force +14 WIN
Iowa State +1 LOSS
Kentucky +21 PUSH
Arizona -20.5 WIN
Washington -5 LOSS
Virginia +7 WIN
Vanderbilt +11.5 LOL
Texas -5 LOSS
UCF +4.5 LOSS
Florida State +4 LOSS
Mississippi State +17 LOSS
Nevada +14 WIN

4-9-1 ☠️

Friday

1. New Mexico +3 @San Jose State (BR): Bet Rivers did me a favor and got to 3, but I'd play this at anything + for the Lobos. The Spartans came into the season as a potential alternative to Boise as a favorite in the Mountain West, and I can see why. Their offense was really good last year, they were bringing back the QB and OC and although their best player by a country mile, all everything WR Nick Nash was gone, the looked like an explosive offense. Well, that hasn't really been the case as they can't run the ball and QB Walker Eget has not transitioned all that well to life without Nash. Their only win was a 3 point win that came down to the wire at home against Idaho, and they lost to CMU and Stanford, with Ben Gulbranson of all people lighting them up for 400+ passing yards last week. Now they face a Lobo team that has shown a penchant for playing up, having hung with Michigan and throttled UCLA, leading to DeShaun Foster being given his walking papers. The big problem for SJSU has been their defense. They're 117th in yards per play against and 131st in yards per pass play against. The Lobos are solid on both sides of the ball and they have a penchant for moving the ball. Even at Michigan, they ran 76 plays and piled up 22 first downs, and they ground UCLA to a pulp. Also, QB Jack Layne is no Johnny Unitas, but he's been able to throw it effectively when necessary and their running game with Scottre Humphrey and Damon Bankston is churning out 6 yards per carry. The Lobos are a significantly better team than Central Michigan, who beat the Spartans in San Jose. The two teams results against common opponent Michigan will tell you that. Although I've always been a fan of Ken Niamotololo I don't know that SJSU is just going to magically find themselves this week, especially against a well coached outfit like New Mexico. I'll gladly take the points with what looks to me like the significantly better team based on the actual results.

This one was disappointing. Walker Eget was I think 22-23 for 320 yards at one point in the 4th quarter. I did not see that coming. Also, although Jack Layne threw for over 300 yards, he made some terrible plays and left several big plays out on the field. That SJSU pass defense is terrible. I guess I expected a better coached game from the UNM staff.
 
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2. Boston College +6.5 @Pittsburgh (BOL): Both of these teams are off to subpar starts, especially BC who is sitting at 1-3 after a couple of excruciating losses tp Cal and Michigan State and an ugly loss at Stanford. Pitt dropped one to Louisville last week after breaking out on top 17-0 but then slowly seeing all the momentum melt away, resulting in a loss and a non cover against a Cardinal team that previously was 2-9 as a road favorite. Pitt's offense fell part last week, resulting in Narduzzi benching Eli Holstein for Cole Gonzalez. I expect Holstein to start but there are certainly some questionable vibes with that Pitt offense, especially if Desmond Reid is still injured. BC is desperate for a win...they cannot afford another loss if they intend to have even a somewhat successful year. Their offense is certainly competent with Dylan Lonergan who got off to a great start, then faltered, but he's totaled almost 1200 yards passing in O'Brien's offense. This is a Pitt team that wilted under pressure from both Louisville last week and West Virginia a couple weeks before that. I have these teams very evenly matched, and BC has played the significantly tougher schedule. I think BC is live to win this game outright, so I'll certainly take 6.5.

What an absolute disgraceful performance from BC. It turned out Pitt didn't play Holstein or Gonzalez but their true freshman Mason Heintschel and he stepped in in his first start and went 30-41 for 323 yards and 4TDs. BC could not cover the Pitt receivers. Also the BC offense might not have gotten a first down until 38-0. This one never had a chance. I couldn't have possibly been more wrong about it.
 
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Agreed on UNM. SJSU has been a huge disappointment and dare I say the Lobos might actually be ok?

Also give me the points with the better coach all day in Pittsbutgh.

Have a big week, Sir. Always one of my favorite reads every week.
 
CPA-hole said:
Agreed on UNM. SJSU has been a huge disappointment and dare I say the Lobos might actually be ok?

Also give me the points with the better coach all day in Pittsbutgh.

Have a big week, Sir. Always one of my favorite reads every week.
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Thanks CPA. Let's hope for a good week!
 
3. Air Force +14(-120) @Navy(BR): Service academies are never great favorites of 2 TDs or more and they are usually very good underdogs at that number, and here we have both scenarios in the same game. Now, it's not impossible, because there have been a few blowouts between these teams in recent years, but I don't think that's likely this year. Air Force has had a rough go in the early going because their defense has been just putrid. Boise ran all over them, as did Utah State, but the kicker was last week when the Hawaii Rainbows came to altitude and dropped 44 on them to escape with an outright in Colorado Springs. I'm not as worried about that here because the option offenses are the great equalizer. Air Force is much more in its element defending teams like Navy than they are(apparently this year) defending good passing attacks. You are getting the bottom of the market on Air Force because the Falcons were heavily bet last week, so a lot of people dropped them like a hot potato. I'm interested in them off that performance because although their defense has been an embarrassment, their offense has been pretty electric. We know about the rushing offense, but this QB Liam Szarka has thrown for 634 yards on 46 attempts. He's got 2 receivers in Cade Harris and Quin Smith who are averaging more than 27 yards per reception on a decent sample size of catches. Navy's defense has looked good so far, but the best offense they've played by far is UAB, and the Blazers put up 321 passing yards on them. The other 3 offenses they've played are VMI, Rice and Tulsa, 2 of which are still learning brand new offenses. I think Air Force is hungry for a win, will obviously be motivated, and I think they're going to score in this one. When they've been blown out, they had backups playing QB or just had a non-competitive offense. That's not the case this year, and Navy isn't in it's element as a sizable favorite. They're not great as a home favorite regardless of the spread, having gone 4-8 in the role since 2022. 14 is a lot here.

Air Force had 455 yards of offense so it was going to be hard for Navy to cover two TDs. Not much doubt in this one throughout. One of the few calls of the day that made sense. Air Force gave up 500+ though, so it doesn't appear to matter what kind of offense they line up against, they cannot and will not stop it.
 
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4. Iowa State +1 @Cincinnati (BOL): I'm actually a fan of Cincinnati and the Bearcats have 2 guys on offense that I think highly of in Brendan Sorsby and Tawee Walker, but I don't like the vibes of this one. A lot of people are down on Iowa State, and some might go so far as to call them fraudulent. I can understand that because they were very fortunate to beat Arkansas State and the RedWolves have gone on to get stomped ever since then. However, all they've done is win and they looked really good last week when I foolishly faded them only laying 5 against Arizona. Now they are getting points(or a point) at Cincy. Cincy cashed a ticket for me last week by winning at Kansas, but make no mistake, they have some fleas on them and they were very fortunate to win. They had to convert a couple lengthy 4th downs on that last drive, and they recovered a fumble at the goal line when Kansas was going in for a score earlier in the 4th quarter. The Bearcats have been great on offense, but not so on defense, ranking 109th in yards per play and they've been torched through the air, ranking 121st in yards per pass attempt. Iowa State's defense is probably similar to Nebraska in defensive chops, and the Cyclones have been good through the air, with Rocco Becht finding his array of Tight ends to the tune of 1102 yards already and 9.2 yards per attempt. Matt Campbell is in his element here in this role, and Satterfield is the opposite. I don't trust him with positive vibes at home. He'll have a nice crowd, but the home Cincy crowds often go home disappointed in situations like this. Overall, Satterfield is 5-10 ATS at home since he's been there, and he's lost 4 times outright as a home favorite in his 2+ years in the Queen City. If they find a way to get this done, I'll tip my cap, but I think I'll stick with the team that makes a habit of winning games like this.

Satterfield tried his best to lose this game, which is why I was attracted to Iowa State in the first place, but they got off to such a terrible start that they had a big hill to climb. There was actually plenty of time, too. Satterfield was another example of going conservative when your original plan was winning you the game. Iowa State knew he was just trying to run out the clock, so they were able to not worry about the rest of the (effective) Cincy offense and the threat of the pass. When the Cyclones were worried about covering with that depleted secondary, Cincy ran all over them. That incompetence could have cost Cincy the game if Becht was a little bit sharper.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. Iowa State +1 @Cincinnati (BOL): I'm actually a fan of Cincinnati and the Bearcats have 2 guys on offense that I think highly of in Brendan Sorsby and Tawee Walker, but I don't like the vibes of this one. A lot of people are down on Iowa State, and some might go so far as to call them fraudulent. I can understand that because they were very fortunate to beat Arkansas State and the RedWolves have gone on to get stomped ever since then. However, all they've done is win and they looked really good last week when I foolishly faded them only laying 5 against Arizona. Now they are getting points(or a point) at Cincy. Cincy cashed a ticket for me last week by winning at Kansas, but make no mistake, they have some fleas on them and they were very fortunate to win. They had to convert a couple lengthy 4th downs on that last drive, and they recovered a fumble at the goal line when Kansas was going in for a score earlier in the 4th quarter. The Bearcats have been great on offense, but not so on defense, ranking 109th in yards per play and they've been torched through the air, ranking 121st in yards per pass attempt. Iowa State's defense is probably similar to Nebraska in defensive chops, and the Cyclones have been good through the air, with Rocco Becht finding his array of Tight ends to the tune of 1102 yards already and 9.2 yards per attempt. Matt Campbell is in his element here in this role, and Satterfield is the opposite. I don't trust him with positive vibes at home. He'll have a nice crowd, but the home Cincy crowds often go home disappointed in situations like this. Overall, Satterfield is 5-10 ATS at home since he's been there, and he's lost 4 times outright as a home favorite in his 2+ years in the Queen City. If they find a way to get this done, I'll tip my cap, but I think I'll stick with the team that makes a habit of winning games like this.
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I like the total in this one as I also don't trust Cincy much defensively. But I don't view them as being fortunate to have won in Lawrence. I watched that one pretty much from beginning to end and Sorsby and the team made plays all over the field including that last clutch drive to win the game in the final minute. Kansas played from behind much of the game and Cincy came up big when it had to.

GL this weekend.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I like the total in this one as I also don't trust Cincy much defensively. But I don't view them as being fortunate to have won in Lawrence. I watched that one pretty much from beginning to end and Sorsby and the team made plays all over the field including that last clutch drive to win the game in the final minute. Kansas played from behind much of the game and Cincy came up big when it had to.

GL this weekend.
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Oh I agree they were certainly the right side, I was just talking about some of the things that had to go their way at the end. If the guy (Jennings I think) doesn't make the one handed catch totally outstretched on 4th and 10, they lose. He made the play though, as you mentioned.
 
Man, you have some balls this week! I agree with Air Force. 14 is too many. Something about Cincy scares me at home. I can't forget Iowa State traveling to Ohio U two years ago and lost. Pitt is Pitt. They can tiger up and beat anyone but turn around and lose games like last week. I probably would buy a half point with Boston College to get to seven to protect myself. Some people I respect are on San Jose State, so your perspective intrigues me, so I'll just sit back and watch.

Thanks again for all your writeups. I always look forward to seeing who you are putting money on. I wish you the best of luck and keep posting!
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Man, you have some balls this week! I agree with Air Force. 14 is too many. Something about Cincy scares me at home. I can't forget Iowa State traveling to Ohio U two years ago and lost. Pitt is Pitt. They can tiger up and beat anyone but turn around and lose games like last week. I probably would buy a half point with Boston College to get to seven to protect myself. Some people I respect are on San Jose State, so your perspective intrigues me, so I'll just sit back and watch.

Thanks again for all your writeups. I always look forward to seeing who you are putting money on. I wish you the best of luck and keep posting!
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Yeah, I cut off buying points at -120 and I couldn't find anything on BC when I wrote it up. 7 is readily available now though. Speaking of respected money, I know there's some on Cincy too, and I get it, I just can't get the spectre of Satterfield v Campbell in those roles out of my head, plus that Cincy defense better hope Corleone is back.(Hearing mixed signals on that)
 
5. Kentucky +21 @Georgia (BR): Much like last year, on paper, Georgia just doesn't look anything like an elite team. Their national ranks in the metrics I look closely at are all over the board. 65th in yards per play against, 101st in yard per attempt against, 103rd in 3rd down conversions on defense, 128th in sack rate, 63rd in 3rd down conversions on offense. You get the picture. Kentucky isn't much of a threat to put pressure on them in these areas, but they've hung with much better Georgia teams than this. There's also a ton of spot disadvantages for Georgia in this game. First, they are coming off the tough Alabama game and have to pick themselves up for a boring opponent and a noon kickoff. Teams that lose as top 10 teams to other ranked teams usually have massive hangovers the next week. Also, Georgia simply does not cover as a home favorite. They are 6-15 since 2022 in the role and only 1-8 since the beginning of last year. They cannot cover anyone in the secondary, and although I'm not sure Cutter Boley is the guy to get the job done, there's a lot working in Kentucky's favor here. I'm playing against Georgia as a favorite until further notice.

This was a pointless bet. The game was going to come down to whether Kentucky got a meaningless TD at the end. I played trends on this one and lucked into a push. It was the correct line, There was no sense betting this game.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. Iowa State +1 @Cincinnati (BOL): I'm actually a fan of Cincinnati and the Bearcats have 2 guys on offense that I think highly of in Brendan Sorsby and Tawee Walker, but I don't like the vibes of this one. A lot of people are down on Iowa State, and some might go so far as to call them fraudulent. I can understand that because they were very fortunate to beat Arkansas State and the RedWolves have gone on to get stomped ever since then. However, all they've done is win and they looked really good last week when I foolishly faded them only laying 5 against Arizona. Now they are getting points(or a point) at Cincy. Cincy cashed a ticket for me last week by winning at Kansas, but make no mistake, they have some fleas on them and they were very fortunate to win. They had to convert a couple lengthy 4th downs on that last drive, and they recovered a fumble at the goal line when Kansas was going in for a score earlier in the 4th quarter. The Bearcats have been great on offense, but not so on defense, ranking 109th in yards per play and they've been torched through the air, ranking 121st in yards per pass attempt. Iowa State's defense is probably similar to Nebraska in defensive chops, and the Cyclones have been good through the air, with Rocco Becht finding his array of Tight ends to the tune of 1102 yards already and 9.2 yards per attempt. Matt Campbell is in his element here in this role, and Satterfield is the opposite. I don't trust him with positive vibes at home. He'll have a nice crowd, but the home Cincy crowds often go home disappointed in situations like this. Overall, Satterfield is 5-10 ATS at home since he's been there, and he's lost 4 times outright as a home favorite in his 2+ years in the Queen City. If they find a way to get this done, I'll tip my cap, but I think I'll stick with the team that makes a habit of winning games like this.
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With Campbell, tight-lined games like this almost always go under as well.
 
6. @Arizona -20.5 v Oklahoma State(BOL): I'm sure this is s square play of sorts, but i can't see any way the Pokes can hang in this one. I checked to see if they've had an exodus to the portal and although I wouldn't call it an exodus, they had 3 secondary starters go this week and also fired their DC Todd Grantham. A quality control guy is taking over the defense, which sounds bad, but it can't get any worse. The Cowboys rank at the bottom in virtually every category on defense. Both Baylor and Oregon could have probably scored on every offensive play if hey felt like it, and even Tulsa torched them for 400+ yards. I'm going back to the well on Arizona, who was my worst play of the week last week, but this is likely to be a good bounce back for them and certainly some class relief from Iowa State in Ames. Arizona QB Noah Fifita has not been great this year, but this should be a get right game for him, and the Arizona defense has been a strong suit for them, so there's no reason that can't continue against this Oklahoma State offense. Under Gundy, OSU was always a great road dog play, but that trend has certainly done a 180. The Cowboys have gone 1-5 in their last 3 as a road dog, and they've been outscored 159-16. I really doubt there's much hope for Oklahoma State to be competitive in this game

This was probably your last chance to fade Okie State at less than 21. If you get another chance, take it. The only team that might give OSU a run for worst P4 team is North Carolina.
 
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7. Washington -5 @Maryland (BR): This line keeps falling, and I suppose I can understand it, as this is a tough travel spot for Washington, who last year couldn't cover a single game when they ventured east in conference, much like USC. However, I do think there's value here. A lot of people were on the Huskies last week, including me, and they were disappointed, so they jumped off. However, it will take more than one struggle with perhaps the best defense in the country to change my opinion on them. Maryland is off to a great start, which I'm glad about because I played them over 4.5 on their season win total. This game, however, will represent by far their toughest challenge. Even though they've played Sagarin's 176th ranked schedule, they still rank poorly in most if not all offensive categories. They're 85th in yards per play, 114th in yards per carry and 83rd in yards per pass attempt, even though true Frosh QB malik Washington has looked pretty good. They're also 117th in 3rd down conversions. On defense is where they've looked good statistically, but get a load of these offenses they've played: FAU, NIU, Towson and Wisconsin while they were being quarterbacked by the anemic Danny O'Neill. The three FBS teams on their schedule are ranked 135th, 118th and 100th in yards per play on the year. Washington will be a major step up for them. It's definitely a tough spot for Washington coming across the country after that game with Ohio State, and with Maryland off a bye no less, but I think this line is telling us something. This could be one of those "disrespected undefeated dog" scenarios in which the disrespected dog gets shown why they were disrespected. Kudos to the Terps for looking as good as they have, but I think we see the real Washington squad here.

This went pretty much as I handicapped it, it's just that Washington didn't start playing until the final 20 minutes.
 
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8. Virginia +7 @Louisville (BOL): When I first saw this one on the schedule, I decided I would look for reasons to bet on Louisville. I figured the spot would be bad for Virginia off the huge win over Florida State, plus Tony Elliott was doing everything he could to piss away that win, so I figured he'd follow that up with some idiotic stylings this week. After looking at the matchup, however, I really can't pass on taking the points with the Cavs here. These two teams have played very similar schedules in terms of opponent strength(94th v 95th) and there is no doubt that on paper, UVa looks like the better team. Offensively, Louisville has been just ok. They can't run the ball, mostly because their two main RBs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson have not been healthy, despite playing, which they will also do this week. Brown rushed for 20 yards on 14 carries last week, which gives an indication of their rushing woes. They're going to have to lean on Miller Moss's arm if that run game stays stagnant because Virginia has proven this year that they can score with Chandler Morris under center. Their offensive line has been very good, keeping Morris upright and giving Harrison Waylee and JMari Taylor room to run. They got banged up on the line last week, but the adjustments they made with personnel worked just fine. This turns out to be a game in which the team that looks like they have the most matchup advantages is getting significant points. I'll take 'em.

Virginia had 237 yards of offense for 3.82 yards per play. Morris was terrible in this game, save a couple of nice throws late. 2 defensive scores did it for UVa, Moss made some terrible mistakes that cost his team the game. Going forward, I think the steam is going to fall off Virginia. 7 was still too much in this one though. Louisville much better as a dog. They'll be one this week coming up.
 
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9. Vanderbilt +11.5 @Alabama (BOL): This is a game that a guy like me has to bet the dog, regardless of the logic behind it or the situational edges or whatever else. Vanderbilt, since the Pavia/Tim Beck/Jerry Kill combo arrived in Nashville is 6-0 as a road dog with 4 outright upsets as well as another couple outright wins as a home dog. On the other hand, since getting to Alabama, Kalen DeBeoer has lost 4 times outright as a double digit favorite. Granted, he's never had that happen at home, and he better hope it doesn't happen here because the Bama fans will be howling again. In actuality, it wouldn't be anything to be ashamed of based on Vandy's performance this year because they've been fantastic, especially on offense. They're second in the country in yards per play, 3rd in yards per rush, 11th in yards per pass attempt and 3rd in 3rd down conversions. Remember when I was talking about how elite teams look on paper and said Georgia doesn't look like one? This is what I'm talking about. Defensively, I think Bama will have success throwing it if Ty Rodgers looks like he did in spurts this year, but I don't think they'll run it on Vandy. The Tide hasn't been able to get a run game going against anyone other than La-Mo, and Kevin Riley, Richard Young and Jam Miller are combining to average barely over 3 yards per carry on 78 carries. Also, both of the high level teams Bama has played ran for over 200 yards on them, and they're 89th in 3rd down conversions against, so Vandy is likely to be able to keep their drives going as well. We should also remember that Vandy is this efficient(or has been) while not going fast at all, so they can eat clock like crazy. Defensively, I will admit that prior to LaNorris Sellers exiting the game in Columbia, Vandy was getting gashed, so there's some risk against this Alabama pass offense, but I'm a believer in the Commodores. I know there's some gambling Bigfoots out there laughing at squares like me that think Vandy can compete with Bama when they aren't "unprepared" like they were last year, but everything that has happened this year and last tells me that they can, and that it's a god bet they'll stay within 11.5.

What can you say about this one? The last play of the game TD run rears it's ugly head again. Also, 2 Pavia turnovers inside the 10. Give Alabama credit though: They ran on Vandy pretty relentlessly and Simpson engineered an offense that went for 7+ yards per play and held the ball, beatng Vandy at their own game. Also, I though Wommack had a great plan. Vandy relies a ton on Pavia's scrambling ability, and he is all too eager to take off, and they had guys waiting for him, especially in the second half. Pavis needed to throw it to beat them, and his best guy Stowers shit the bed all day, right up to their last offensive play.
 
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10. Texas -5(-115) @Florida (BOL): I'm again on the opposite side of smarter people, but I'm trying to figure out how Florida scores on this Texas defense. DJ Lagway famously chucked 5 INTs in the LSU game and then the following week against Miami, looked scared to even throw the ball, totaling 61 yards on 23 pass attempts. The Gators are ranked 125th in yards per play, 126th in yards per pass attempt and even though they have a future pro in the backfield in Jadan Baugh, they're 105th in yards per carry. Now they have to go against this Texas defense that completely shut down Ohio State for all but 1 play in Columbus and leads the nation in yards per play against. I think Arch Manning is a total, complete fraud, but I do believe this offense can produce in this one. Florida gets a lot of pub as a high level defense, but their numbers are middling. They get no pressure on the QB and don't rank any higher than 60th in any defensive category. You can say they've played a tough schedule, but LSU's offense is a joke right now and Miami played the second half in cruise control. Also, their best defensive player, DL Caleb Banks is out for the year and the true freshman that got a bunch more snaps as a result is out this week. Quintravious Wisner is back for Texas this week, so they'll have their best running back available, and I think everyone on that offense played well against Ohio State, other than Manning. If they get simply a non-horrific performance out of him, I think they'll be in good position to cover this number. I know The Swamp is a tough spot, and Florida has elevated their game there in the recent past, but Lagway looks broken. We'll see if the bye week and the return of the true freshman Dallas Wilson transforms him, but I'm skeptical. The line has now gotten to a place where it's out of line with the fundamental handicap.

Texas is unbettable as long as Manning is playing QB. He's not simply overrated. He sucks. There is not one aspect of quarterbacking that he does well, and I'd go so far as to say there isn't ne aspect that he doesn't suck at. He can't throw. There are unblocked rushers every time he fades back to pass because he can't line up protections. He can't read defenses. It appears that he has no plan when he takes the snap and decides what he's going to do once he fades back into the pocket. He's weak when he runs unless it's against some hapless nerd on SHSU. If Texas had one of probably 50 other QBs in FBS they would have beaten OSU and might have won this game. He single handedly got his best offensive player(Livingstone) injured with a horrific throw that he had to make a circus catch on that left him vulnerable to a low tackle that took him out of the game. Not sure if he's ok, but he didn't catch another ball. He also overthrew a wide open TD (at least one) because he got happy feet and folded under pressure in the pocket. Texas couldn't run the ball because Florida has no fear of him beating them consistently. He completed a few passes that any QB would so he had passable numbers, but they cannot win with him back there.

Kudos to Lagway. He looked good. Dallas Wilson probably does make a huge difference, which I mentioned as a concern. This was a bad call. Florida the obvious correct side.
 
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Brass BOL on the week. Any concerns about IST secondary? They appear to be really decimated in the secondary. Re MD - I am still ? whether they can run the football against a quality front 7. Have not seen it yet so I am interested to see what happens today. Feel like if they can't run and get in adverse down and distance that the resultant effect will be more pressure on M. Washington. MD defense though has played extremely well, and appear to be really coached up nicely by Monachino. I am staying away from that one but will watch.
 
11. @UCF +4.5 v Kansas (BOL): Both teams are coming off a loss, Kansas a deflating one to Cincy in which they were a pretty safe home favorite and UCF as a dog in Manhattan. I see these two teams as pretty evenly matched, but the one thing I liked about UCF was their ability to run the ball on the road last week. Both Mason Montgomery and Jaden Nixon busted off long runs and averaged better than 10 yards per carry(!!). I was a little afraid that some QB injuries might lead to Cam Fancher playing for UCF which would keep me miles off this game, but it looks like Tayven Jackson is going to be fine. UCF has been solid defensively, so I don't think they'll be overwhelmed by this Kansas attack, especially at home where they have a lot of extra juice. Also, road favorite is not Kansas's bag, man. Under Leipold, they have been a pesky road dog, but when favored they've flopped. It's happened 5 times and they've lost outright in 3 of them, covering just once. Defensively, I think the Jayhawks are vulnerable to the run game in this one and their pass defense isn't much better. I think the Knights will be in this one and I have them capped as pretty much a dead heat once you adjust for the relatively weak schedule the Knight have played. As a result, I'll take the points given UCF's home performance(totally took apart UNC) and Kansas's struggles as a road favorite.

Another joke, and my worst fear came true because we ended up having our fortunes rest on the QB stylings of the incompetent Cam Fancher. Still, UCF is at home 2nd a goal on the one inch line against the Kansas defense to tie the game late, and they get stuffed 3 times in a row. Then they get the ball back in the final minute, AT HOME against the Kansas defense first and goal on the 10 and they go incomplete incomplete incomplete incomplete. 3 double digit leads blown. I'd probably bet UCF in this scenario again, but they failed late.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
10. Texas -5(-115) @Florida (BOL): I'm again on the opposite side of smarter people, but I'm trying to figure out how Florida scores on this Texas defense. DJ Lagway famously chucked 5 INTs in the LSU game and then the following week against Miami, looked scared to even throw the ball, totaling 61 yards on 23 pass attempts. The Gators are ranked 125th in yards per play, 126th in yards per pass attempt and even though they have a future pro in the backfield in Jadan Baugh, they're 105th in yards per carry. Now they have to go against this Texas defense that completely shut down Ohio State for all but 1 play in Columbus and leads the nation in yards per play against. I think Arch Manning is a total, complete fraud, but I do believe this offense can produce in this one. Florida gets a lot of pub as a high level defense, but their numbers are middling. They get no pressure on the QB and don't rank any higher than 60th in any defensive category. You can say they've played a tough schedule, but LSU's offense is a joke right now and Miami played the second half in cruise control. Also, their best defensive player, DL Caleb Banks is out for the year and the true freshman that got a bunch more snaps as a result is out this week. Quintravious Wisner is back for Texas this week, so they'll have their best running back available, and I think everyone on that offense played well against Ohio State, other than Manning. If they get simply a non-horrific performance out of him, I think they'll be in good position to cover this number. I know The Swamp is a tough spot, and Florida has elevated their game there in the recent past, but Lagway looks broken. We'll see if the bye week and the return of the true freshman Dallas Wilson transforms him, but I'm skeptical. The line has now gotten to a place where it's out of line with the fundamental handicap.
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I agree, but I'm sticking with the under. This feels like it could be a 20-7 win for Texas
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Virginia +7 @Louisville (BOL): When I first saw this one on the schedule, I decided I would look for reasons to bet on Louisville. I figured the spot would be bad for Virginia off the huge win over Florida State, plus Tony Elliott was doing everything he could to piss away that win, so I figured he'd follow that up with some idiotic stylings this week. After looking at the matchup, however, I really can't pass on taking the points with the Cavs here. These two teams have played very similar schedules in terms of opponent strength(94th v 95th) and there is no doubt that on paper, UVa looks like the better team. Offensively, Louisville has been just ok. They can't run the ball, mostly because their two main RBs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson have not been healthy, despite playing, which they will also do this week. Brown rushed for 20 yards on 14 carries last week, which gives an indication of their rushing woes. They're going to have to lean on Miller Moss's arm if that run game stays stagnant because Virginia has proven this year that they can score with Chandler Morris under center. Their offensive line has been very good, keeping Morris upright and giving Harrison Waylee and JMari Taylor room to run. They got banged up on the line last week, but the adjustments they made with personnel worked just fine. This turns out to be a game in which the team that looks like they have the most matchup advantages is getting significant points. I'll take 'em.
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That win over Pitt was pretty fluky with the two TDs on the punt-related mistakes.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Vanderbilt +11.5 @Alabama (BOL): This is a game that a guy like me has to bet the dog, regardless of the logic behind it or the situational edges or whatever else. Vanderbilt, since the Pavia/Tim Beck/Jerry Kill combo arrived in Nashville is 6-0 as a road dog with 4 outright upsets as well as another couple outright wins as a home dog. On the other hand, since getting to Alabama, Kalen DeBeoer has lost 4 times outright as a double digit favorite. Granted, he's never had that happen at home, and he better hope it doesn't happen here because the Bama fans will be howling again. In actuality, it wouldn't be anything to be ashamed of based on Vandy's performance this year because they've been fantastic, especially on offense. They're second in the country in yards per play, 3rd in yards per rush, 11th in yards per pass attempt and 3rd in 3rd down conversions. Remember when I was talking about how elite teams look on paper and said Georgia doesn't look like one? This is what I'm talking about. Defensively, I think Bama will have success throwing it if Ty Rodgers looks like he did in spurts this year, but I don't think they'll run it on Vandy. The Tide hasn't been able to get a run game going against anyone other than La-Mo, and Kevin Riley, Richard Young and Jam Miller are combining to average barely over 3 yards per carry on 78 carries. Also, both of the high level teams Bama has played ran for over 200 yards on them, and they're 89th in 3rd down conversions against, so Vandy is likely to be able to keep their drives going as well. We should also remember that Vandy is this efficient(or has been) while not going fast at all, so they can eat clock like crazy. Defensively, I will admit that prior to LaNorris Sellers exiting the game in Columbia, Vandy was getting gashed, so there's some risk against this Alabama pass offense, but I'm a believer in the Commodores. I know there's some gambling Bigfoots out there laughing at squares like me that think Vandy can compete with Bama when they aren't "unprepared" like they were last year, but everything that has happened this year and last tells me that they can, and that it's a god bet they'll stay within 11.5.
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It's the smart play it seems. Not sure I've seen anyone that thinks Alabama covers today. I think their best chance to cover is to get up multiple scores and make Vanderbilt play faster than they want
 
Timh said:
Brass BOL on the week. Any concerns about IST secondary? They appear to be really decimated in the secondary. Re MD - I am still ? whether they can run the football against a quality front 7. Have not seen it yet so I am interested to see what happens today. Feel like if they can't run and get in adverse down and distance that the resultant effect will be more pressure on M. Washington. MD defense though has played extremely well, and appear to be really coached up nicely by Monachino. I am staying away from that one but will watch.
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Timmy, good point. Definite concerns there. They lost both starting corners, but one of them was already out and then Jontez Williams(probably their best guy back there) got hurt early Sat, so they were without both against Arizona for the most part and held up well. It's a concern, but I'm hoping Campbell figures it out. If it turns out the DL Orange doesn't play(I hear he will play) then I'll be really concerned. We'll see.
 
gps_3 said:
It's the smart play it seems. Not sure I've seen anyone that thinks Alabama covers today. I think their best chance to cover is to get up multiple scores and make Vanderbilt play faster than they want
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There's one pod in particular that I probably give too much credence to.
 
12. @Florida State +4 v Miami (BOL): Miami has been great this year, probably one of the top 3 teams overall, especially in the trenches, but this is going to be a madhouse in Tallahassee. I can't get that domination of Alabama from week one out of my head, and I think things are going to look a lot different for Miami in their first foray on the road this year. Offensively they've been good enough, but somewhat pedestrian. They don't run it particularly well, and Beck has a tendency to regress in games like this, especially on the road, despite all the experience he has. I don't trust Castellanos in situations like last week, on the road when he's supposed to win, but in this environment I think he'll thrive, and his receivers(especially Duce Robinson) are proving to be legit. There's also risk for Miami that the bone headedness of Mario Cristobal in-game might rear it's ugly head. The teams are close, so I'll take the points here.

I bet this game expecting a raucous atmosphere, but it was never evident, even pre game. I guarantee if I laid it with Miami here, they would have deferred to the second half, FSU would have come out blazing, Beck would have shit his pants and we would have seen a repeat of wee one against Alabama.

As it happened though, Miami controlled this game from the jump. I could have torn up that ticket halfway through the first quarter.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. @Arizona -20.5 v Oklahoma State(BOL): I'm sure this is s square play of sorts, but i can't see any way the Pokes can hang in this one. I checked to see if they've had an exodus to the portal and although I wouldn't call it an exodus, they had 3 secondary starters go this week and also fired their DC Todd Grantham. A quality control guy is taking over the defense, which sounds bad, but it can't get any worse. The Cowboys rank at the bottom in virtually every category on defense. Both Baylor and Oregon could have probably scored on every offensive play if hey felt like it, and even Tulsa torched them for 400+ yards. I'm going back to the well on Arizona, who was my worst play of the week last week, but this is likely to be a good bounce back for them and certainly some class relief from Iowa State in Ames. Arizona QB Noah Fifita has not been great this year, but this should be a get right game for him, and the Arizona defense has been a strong suit for them, so there's no reason that can't continue against this Oklahoma State offense. Under Gundy, OSU was always a great road dog play, but that trend has certainly done a 180. The Cowboys have gone 1-5 in their last 3 as a road dog, and they've been outscored 159-16. I really doubt there's much hope for Oklahoma State to be competitive in this game
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Love this play too. Selectively fading the cowboys has been a great play this year so far and I think the cats get this one done early. I was tempted to take the 1H too.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Vanderbilt +11.5 @Alabama (BOL): This is a game that a guy like me has to bet the dog, regardless of the logic behind it or the situational edges or whatever else. Vanderbilt, since the Pavia/Tim Beck/Jerry Kill combo arrived in Nashville is 6-0 as a road dog with 4 outright upsets as well as another couple outright wins as a home dog. On the other hand, since getting to Alabama, Kalen DeBeoer has lost 4 times outright as a double digit favorite. Granted, he's never had that happen at home, and he better hope it doesn't happen here because the Bama fans will be howling again. In actuality, it wouldn't be anything to be ashamed of based on Vandy's performance this year because they've been fantastic, especially on offense. They're second in the country in yards per play, 3rd in yards per rush, 11th in yards per pass attempt and 3rd in 3rd down conversions. Remember when I was talking about how elite teams look on paper and said Georgia doesn't look like one? This is what I'm talking about. Defensively, I think Bama will have success throwing it if Ty Rodgers looks like he did in spurts this year, but I don't think they'll run it on Vandy. The Tide hasn't been able to get a run game going against anyone other than La-Mo, and Kevin Riley, Richard Young and Jam Miller are combining to average barely over 3 yards per carry on 78 carries. Also, both of the high level teams Bama has played ran for over 200 yards on them, and they're 89th in 3rd down conversions against, so Vandy is likely to be able to keep their drives going as well. We should also remember that Vandy is this efficient(or has been) while not going fast at all, so they can eat clock like crazy. Defensively, I will admit that prior to LaNorris Sellers exiting the game in Columbia, Vandy was getting gashed, so there's some risk against this Alabama pass offense, but I'm a believer in the Commodores. I know there's some gambling Bigfoots out there laughing at squares like me that think Vandy can compete with Bama when they aren't "unprepared" like they were last year, but everything that has happened this year and last tells me that they can, and that it's a god bet they'll stay within 11.5.
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Playing devil's advocate. If Vandy didn't have such a good road record in recent times, what would this line have been? Methinks probably 14.5 or so. I like Vandy too but I fear the love is already baked into this number. I'll be rooting for you though bc I'm NOT an Alabama fan.
 
Timh said:
Curious what is your most respected Pod?
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I listen to as many as I can. I try to get midweek pods of the 24/7 team sites to see what vibes there are and try to get a handle on injuries. USC has a good one, all of the SEC schools have several. As for handicapping ones, if I tail I fail, almost always, so I'm just looking for entertainment, There's no doubt Stuckey from the BBOC pod is the most entertaining guy and probably the one who knows his shit the most.

The worst is the mess that Falica is putting out with Fox. It's just a constant insult to the listener and an arrogant, smug delivery of illogical and oftentimes incorrect data, usually from the other two morons on with him. The entire podcast is "All these idiots are going to be on this side, but I'm the smart guy, so I'll be over here." Most times, what they think is the contrarian side is the consensus. I used to love the Bear when he was with Stanford Steve. That was just a fun pod. Now it's like he's imagining "haters" and just trying to call them stupid for an hour. Rant over.
 
Hulu said:
Playing devil's advocate. If Vandy didn't have such a good road record in recent times, what would this line have been? Methinks probably 14.5 or so. I like Vandy too but I fear the love is already baked into this number. I'll be rooting for you though bc I'm NOT an Alabama fan.
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It's moving up so it might get there anyway!
 
LOL!! My wife just walked in and asked, "How are your plays going?" I said, well, not good. The Iowa State Cincy game was on in the background and she asked, "Did you make a play on this one?" Yeah, Iowa State. She looks at me incredulously and says, "FADE YOURSELF" 😆
 
13. Mississippi State +17(-114) @Texas A&M (BOL): I can see why people would be fading MSU here as they are making a road trip for the first time and A&M has looked very good on both sides of the ball, but this is too many points from the perspective of both of these teams in my opinion. State has played two high level squads, both at home(Tennessee and Arizona State) and probably should have beaten both of them. They go on the road here, but I don't think they'll be afraid of A&M because tey played them tough last year when they were still building, and they have the scars from the two games this year. Also, they have covered 4 out of 5 as a road dog under Lebby, while Elko is 2-7 as a home favorite and 3-12 overall as a favorite in all venues. They've made a bit of a habit of dominating games but not having it show on the scoreboard. Last week they dominated Auburn to the tune of a 414-177 yard edge and ended up with a 16-10 victory that wasn't clinched until the end. If the Bulldogs can play a somewhat competent game, I think they can stay within this. I'm a little worried that this one could look like the one time Elko blew out a good team when favored(Missouri last year, a game in which I held a Tiger ticket), but that game was an outlier. I'll take here.

It was 7-3 halfway through the third quarter. Can we get any signs of life from the Bulldogs? Hello? That A&M defense looks pretty good though. Even in garbage/backdoor time, they were playing as if their lives depended on it. Elko goes to 4-12 as a favorite, Lebby goes to 4-2 as a road dog.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I listen to as many as I can. I try to get midweek pods of the 24/7 team sites to see what vibes there are and try to get a handle on injuries. USC has a good one, all of the SEC schools have several. As for handicapping ones, if I tail I fail, almost always, so I'm just looking for entertainment, There's no doubt Stuckey from the BBOC pod is the most entertaining guy and probably the one who knows his shit the most.

The worst is the mess that Falica is putting out with Fox. It's just a constant insult to the listener and an arrogant, smug delivery of illogical and oftentimes incorrect data, usually from the other two morons on with him. The entire podcast is "All these idiots are going to be on this side, but I'm the smart guy, so I'll be over here." Most times, what they think is the contrarian side is the consensus. I used to love the Bear when he was with Stanford Steve. That was just a fun pod. Now it's like he's imagining "haters" and just trying to call them stupid for an hour. Rant over.
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Funny you mentioned Stuckey, he used to post on this site years ago. He is pretty good I agree. I listened to VSIN with Youmans and the other guy and came away unimpressed.
 
14. Nevada +14 (-118) @Fresno State (BR): Despite the records of these two teams, I think they are pretty evenly matched I'm certainly not a fan of Chuba Purdy of Nevada under center, but EJ Warner has not been anyone's savior either. Even though they are 1-3, they've outgained all of their non-Penn State opponents and the WKU loss is misleading because the Toppers returned an onside kick for a TD in the final minute. They've run the ball well this year, and I think they match up pretty well with Fresno's run D. Remember that Fresno is a team that managed only 213 yards on Kansas, who's been torched by just bout everyone since then, got outgained by 200+ yards in a fortunate win at Oregon State, and managed only 298 yards against Hawaii and were lucky to win that one. Their 3-1 record is probably the reason they are a 2 TD favorite in this one, and that record is pretty misleading. Ultimately I think Nevada could win this game outright if they had average QB play. They won't get that with Purdy, so I wouldn't play a money line, but I'm pretty optimistic they can compete here.

Good job by Nevada here as they were down 20-3 with three turnovers at the half. Thankfully, Choate ended the Chuba Purdy experience after he was 0-4 with 2 picks and went with backup Carter Jones. He wasn't great, but all we needed was not horrific and he gave us that. Nevada actually had a chance to win once they cut it to 3, but Fresno ran out the last 8 minutes(!!) to close it out on their last drive.
 
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Timh said:
Funny you mentioned Stuckey, he used to post on this site years ago. He is pretty good I agree. I listened to VSIN with Youmans and the other guy and came away unimpressed.
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I like Youmans. VSin is about the only listenable sports radio I can handle.
 
Terrible week, 4-9-1. Brings the season total to 38-39-4. Bad. Working on recaps now. I definitely have some thoughts. Got eyes on quite a few games.
 
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